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Caucus Thread (Open Thread)

By SusanUnPC on January 3, 2008 at 8:25 PM in Presidential Candidates

I’m refreshing the home pages of MyDD.com and Taylor Marsh‘s site because those political wizards are tracking the caucus minute by minute. I posted a comment to Taylor’s latest thread, and asked her if she’s going to do radio tonight — later, she might, she replied. MyDD.com’s latest — these are early results, and I’m changing them as MyDD changes them (Jerome Armstrong also has a thread going; he’s at a caucus):

UPDATED from 64 precincts to 118, now at 237 — trend is continuing / results very early:
SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS : 34.22%
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON : 32.17%
SENATOR BARACK OBAMA : 30.33%
GOVERNOR BILL RICHARDSON : 1.99%
SENATOR JOE BIDEN : 1.05%
SENATOR CHRIS DODD : 0.12%
UNCOMMITTED : 0.09%
PRECINCTS REPORTING: 237 OF 1781
(PERCENTAGES ARE STATE DELEGATE EQUIVALENTS.)

Taylor Marsh has these numbers:

Edwards : 34.51%
Clinton : 31.63%
Obama : 30.34%
Richardson : 1.77%
Biden : 1.38%
Dodd : 0.21%
Uncommitted : 0.16%
Precincts Reporting: 144/1781

HUGE turnouts in Iowa tonight. Truly amazing.

Huckabee and Romney are duking it out. But Huckabee seems poised to win. Which TV channel(s) are you watching? I got tired of the jawing on MSNBC so just switched to CNN to try it out for a while. C-Span is showing real “live” caucuses in progress.

Mark Halperin has this at his blog site, The Page:

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP)
“Democrats Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama vied for victory Thursday night in the Iowa caucuses, while Mike Huckabee battled Mitt Romney among Republicans. John Edwards lagged in a survey of voters entering the caucuses by The Associated Press and the television networks.” The Page, 6:52 PM

  • http://noquarterusa.net/ SusanUnPC

    Far out. I just tried out Fox, and they’ve been delivering the numbers more than the other two.

    • TeakWoodKite

      Fox did not have Ron Paul reported and CNN and MSNBC had him at 2nd. He does not exist at Fox…

  • Cee

    CNN just reported that Huckabee won. LOL!

  • http://papertigertail.blogspot.com Other Lisa

    Oooh, there are gonna be a lot of Republican powerbrokers’ heads exploding over that.

  • TeakWoodKite

    It will be real interesting when the independent vote goes to someone other than Obama…what I am curious about in postmortum are the demographic breakdown and where the independent folks went.
    The independent vote in Iowa is in the majority @ .75 million people the ticker said.
    I think what SusanUnPC said is correct regarding the core of the Democratic party. The larger question is what is the disposition and direction of the Democratic party is and how the independent vote being in the majority will play out and potentially dilute certian aspects Dems…

    A win is a win and the horse trading continues.

    The other thing that is nagging at me, is the my perception that the corporate world knows it needs to keep “renewing” lines of control, generationally. This requires not allowing a politically organic calculus to develop without being in the driver’s seat.

  • yogi-one

    Here’s the results on the Iowa Democratic Party Caucus website:
    http://www.iowacaucusresults.com/

    Obama pulled it out in the homestretch.

    I’m not pretending to know all the nuances of the caucus – there’s many bigger political analytics here than me.

    Here’s what I think: for better or for worse, Obama is generating excitement among voters.

    Generally speaking, whoever generates the most excitement wins.

    That was also true at the GOP caucus, where Huck excited them far more than the cast far than the field of corporate/racist bigots they offered.

    Here’s a twist on evaluating the candidates over at Democracy Now. They look at who is advising the candidates (i.e. – the people that would most likely end up in the cabinet of each particular frontrunner should they win the Presidency):

    Voting for Change?
    http://tinyurl.com/2blb3d

    But little attention has been paid to perhaps one of the most important aspects of the candidates: their advisers, the men and women who likely form the backbone of the candidate’s future cabinet if elected president. Many of the names will be familiar.

    Interesting, if only because it’s a different slant.

  • Michael Lafferty

    I was there in Iowa for the last big one, watching our purported lead slip away and the ground game stumble. Despite all the work, we didn’t deliver for Governor Dean. I wish I were there now, and if I were, that I had the chance to sit across the table from Joe Trippi once again.

    I imagine that I would say something to the effect of, “You know, Joe, we just can’t see to get a break. This is the second time in a row.” And I might ask, “What’s the deal, Joe? Is it you?”

    (For the record, I don’t think that coming up short involves Trippi at all. I never met a more dedicated guy, and he is the one individual most responsible for my spending so much volunteer time on the Dean for America campaign.) Once again though, ‘we’ came up short.

    I wonder to some degree if we were beaten by Senator Obama’s ‘rock star’ status? It’s his victory, and I won’t mar that with my own possibly myopic and clearly biased observations. But, I do wonder…

    A couple of clear positives:

    • Senator Clinton, who may well prevail in the end and already holds the lead by virtue of committed super-delegates, is not—for the moment—the unstoppable juggernaut.

    • Democratic caucus participation levels were far greater than Republican, apparently reflecting higher energy among Democrats, malaise on the part of Republicans, and high levels of participation in the caucus by independents.

    • Participation by younger voters reached unexpected levels, and that—on balance—has to be a net positive, despite my inclination to conclude that it was likely one candidate’s ‘rock star’ status which largely drew them in.

    • The established Republican party structure must surely be beside itself with the Huckabee victory, and Governor Huckabee offers possibly the thinnest resume and the greatest contrast to any of the Democratic contenders. We should savor his victory and chuckle for only a moment, however. He is not likely the loser he has been tagged as, for in a nation which can elevate Reagan and Bush to the Presidency, any damned thing is possible. Even probable, on any given afternoon.

    I will continue to support Senator Edwards, until no such option is available, should that be the outcome. Then, I will do what I did in the last cycle: take a break for a while, and support whomever wins the nomination. I already promised Governor Dean that I would do that today when I signed the pledge…

    • susanunpc

      What a terrific post, Michael. Wow.

      I love your candidate, and I am truly heartsick for him. I can SEE him in the Oval Office. And he’d also be ready from day one.

      I am gratified that you will continue to support him. At the very least, he deserves a cabinet post in a Democratic White House — if there is one.

      Frankly, Huckabee spooks me because he is so instantly likeable, and that seems to thrill a lot of people who don’t know about or don’t care about all of his issues and history. Huckabee could steal this whole thing.

  • http://1950democrat.livejournal.com 1950democrat

    In her post-caucus speech, Hillary congratulated both Obama and Edwards (according to some counts she came in in the middle). The delegates were split like 16-15-14.

    This isn’t a big deal victory or defeat for anyone. This is a statistical tie.

    Big deal.

  • TeakWoodKite

    Mark Halpern calling Obama an “insurgent” on Charlie Rose….back to the word game.