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A Fascinating Dynamic in New Hampshire

By Larry Johnson on January 4, 2008 at 11:42 AM in Current Affairs

The upcoming Tuesday primary in New Hampshire should have some surprises.  The slate of candidates for both Republicans and Democrats sets up an interesting dynamic.  Party registration in New Hampshire is not hard and fast–Republicans and Independents can vote Democratic and Democrats and Independents can vote Republican.  I do not recall a time in the last 30 years when you have had the kind of competition and national implications at stake as exist in the candidacies of Mike Huckabee for the Republicans and Barack Obama for the Democrats.

My guess at this point is that the controversy surrounding Huckabee will distract the independents and republicans who, in other circumstances, might have crossed party lines to vote for Obama.  With Obama having to rely on a more traditional Democratic voter turnout, he may not sustain the momentum he picked up in Iowa.  Let’s also not forget that the media, ever eager to crown a new messiah, will now turn on their messiah (Obama) and work on tearing him down.  That’s what they do.

New Hampshire, for John Edwards, is do or die.  I fear without a victory that he will not have the money he needs to sustain his campaign.  Looks like the Republican establishment is going to rally around McCain.  While Mitt Romney does not have to worry about money, his viability depends on demonstrating that a sizeable number of Republican faithful will vote for him.

So what do you think?

  • BernieO

    I wouldn’t bet on the media turning on Obama. It might happen, but they never turned on Bush in 2000.

  • TeakwoodKite

    Independent Turn out for Obama was not unexpected, New Hampshire will have will Edwards ahead. Huckabee might act like a “honeypot” for republicians and stall the independent vote from crossing the line. The problem is how to tap the compression of the middle class and give it direction. Hope is a wonderful thing but it still doesn’t feed the family or pay for the heating fuel. When was the last time a candidate was elected in part by challenging the corporations that pull the strings?

    I really don’t care who likes who, it is a blast just watching it unfold! (West Wing Withdrawls)

  • http://democracylover.blogspot.com Charley

    I think that if Edwards comes in ahead of Clinton in New Hampshire, he will be able to stay in the race, and that seems likely. My guess is that NH will have the same 1-2-3 as Iowa. If Edwards and Obama are the clear front-runners, the “real” Obama who has been described so well in this space will come to light.

    As for the Rethuglicans, my money is on McCain. I think Romney is toast already and Huckabee is not likely to have much traction in NH.

    • Nellie

      As for the Rethuglicans, my money is on McCain.

      According to a dear friend of mine, who has been in the center of NH Republican poltics for over 34 years, the state Republicans are going for McCain as of 3 weeks ago.

  • Donovan Fraser

    I was fascinated by Ron Paul’s finish (ahead of Fooliani) last time I looked.
    Not so far fetched what Paul is conveying to the American people.
    The fact McCain is even a candidate in baffling to me. this is the same guy who when asked “would you have gone into Iraq knowing what you know now “? This bozo answered Yes. He disagrees with almost 80% of the country yet touts this idiocy as being steadfast. well John, steadfastly wrong is not a very good place to be.

    HOW is he a viable candidate in a general election?

    • Centrocitta

      Friends from New Hampshire are telling me there are more signs for Ron Paul on public display in New Hampshire than for any other candidate. My bet is the independent vote will go to Ron Paul. New Hampshire is one of the original 13 colonies. Ron Paul is a constitutionalist.

  • Kathleen

    I think we all need to send Edwards money. Whether you are completely for him, I honor that he has taken a principled stand and said no to PAC MONEY? Is this a first or did Perot do this?

    I keep waiting for folks that I have challenged on the web to come up with some facts that support Obama as a “bold” candidate that we can put our faith in based on “hope” and “change”.

    Show me the “change” through action. Obama lost me when he walked out the back door on that Kyl Lieberman amendment. Edwards has impressed me by apologizing for his stupid and dangerous 2002 war resolution vote, continuing to focus on poverty (no votes there for him) and continuing to challenge corporate greed and then backing that up by not taking PAC MONIES. Walking the talk.

    Hillary lost me on her Kyl LIeberman vote and when she laughed in an arrogant and disrespectful way when Mike Gravel questioned her yes vote for that warmongering amendment.

    This clip says it all for me about Hillary and Obama

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npzN3dZR6JM

    • Centrocitta

      She’s going to come in third in New Hampshire too!

    • Percy

      Kathleen, in more than one plea on more than one blog I have asked for the facts behind the “hope” and “change” rhetoric of Obama. Nothing yet. There is nothing of susbtantial behind the words of lofty inspriation. We need that in this country yet we need substnace in teh WHite House. People are so hungry to feel connected in this country they are blindly following. The bubble will bust I hope BEFORE it gets too out of hand. I totally agree, when Obama once again, didn’t get a vote on the record and yet condemns those who did. He is like a bobble head of his campaign, someone is pulling the strings and then he takes the microphone. Yes Hillary casted a surprising 9or not) vote on the Kyl Lieberman vote, yet she voted. I am a Hillary supporter, YET, I am willing to back one person that the majority of the DEMOCRATS will support. I understand that Hillary is polarizing….yet I am polarized with OBAMA! I will not cast a vote for Obama….!!!! I think Edwards could be the reasonable compromise for the Democrats….can he pull it out? If not… I will be waiting for the Independent / Third party luanch in March! Obama supporters PLEASE PLEASE do not rush to his side…..PLEASE. Get past the hype and try to be objective, our future counts on it.

  • Donovan Fraser

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vf7HYoh9YMM

    this should be an add for McCains presidency. great platform to run on

  • CK

    Guiliani made more campaign appearances in Iowa than Dr Paul. ( 35 to 27 ) Yet he obtained 1/3 the vote of Dr. Paul.
    Not a terrible showing for a Republican who is:
    Anti-war, anti-military intervention
    Anti-farm subsidy
    Not vocally regligious.
    Oh well 1 down 49 to go.
    Wyoming next
    then New Hampshire
    then there is Michigan ( bright move there by O and E, conceded all of michigan’s delegates to H.)
    South Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Maine, Super Tuesday.
    Of course with all the calculating and strategizing it is well to remember this pithy aphorism:
    It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything.
    ( Reference Kenya, reference Pakistan, reference Florida, reference Ohio, reference Ukraine, reference Siam, reference Mexico )

  • RickJoel

    I was surprised by who came out on top in Iowa, shows money doesn’t buy it all I guess. I’m a John Edwards supporter and I’m overjoyed that he came in second. Would have liked him first but the media does’t seem to want to give him the time of day. I believe stongly in this man and what he can do for this country. I have contributed to his campaign for his New Hampshire run. Living next door in Mass I’ve noticed over the years that NH has become less of a yankee consertave state on many issues and I’m hoping that the voter’s see a lot in Sen. Edwards. What ever happens, I will vote for a Dem. in the white house. I just feel this sweep across the nation is going to take off and, that for some reason, the main line news media keeps on dumping on. Appears they like the status quo. Perhaps it’s because they feel a threat as well.

  • Taters

    Obama received 18 delegates last night.
    Edwards received 17.
    Clinton received 16.
    There’s quite a ways to go and it very well could be Super Tuesday that decides it.

  • TeakwoodKite

    But an FEC shutdown could threaten his funding.
    Add that to the Voter ID issue before the Supremes and it looks real dicey. Then again what has the FEC done for us lately?

    With Congress and the president locked in a standoff over nominations, the Federal Election Commission has effectively stopped functioning as primary season gets underway. The FEC enters 2008 with two of its six members, considerably short of the four votes needed for it to take any official action.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/03/AR2008010303760.html

  • dana b

    Larry,
    As a Hillary supporter, I wish you were right about New Hampshire, but I fear you are wrong. If New Hampshire allows not only independents but Republicans to vote in Democratic Primaries (and vice versa), then I think some Republicans and a lot of Independents are going to choose to vote in the Democratic side of the race. Why? Because that’s where the excitement is, the most interesting candidates, the momentum. And Obama, not McCain, will benefit from that influx into the Democratic primary. Hillary would probably win NH if only registered Dems could vote in that Dem primary, but Obama appeals to the independents more, at least for now.

    Iowa means nothing in actual delegate totals at this point, but media, momentum, perception of front-runner — all these things are going Obama’s way right now. If Hillary can eke out a victory in NH, or better yet, win a resounding one, that will put the race between her and Obama back to a real dogfight with lots of contests to come. If she loses, South Carolina will be tough to win and then the momentum will clearly be on Obama’s side.

  • Kathleen

    http://www.alternet.org/election08/72079/
    Obama, Cozy with Corporate Lobbyists, Risks Much with Edwards Attack

    While John Edwards announced this weekend that he will ban corporate lobbyists and foreign government lobbyists from his White House, Barack Obama has stepped up criticism of Edwards on everything from his populist views to Iowa ads about Edwards by an independent organization backed by union members.

    With these latest remarks, however, Obama is wading into treacherous territory if he thinks no one will notice his close ties to big business lobbyists and their money, all while he attempts to play connect-the-dots on Edwards.

    • Nellie

      Kathleen,

      After reviewing all the pro’s and Con’s of each candidate, I too will be suporting Edwards.

      It will greatly help if you, and your firends/family, can write, then Fax LTE’s to the following NH papers

      Manchster Union Leader
      Concord Monitor
      Nashua Telegraph
      Portsmouth Herald
      Keene Sentinel

  • Kathleen

    Edwards was the only one willing to call the “cakewalk in Iraq” zealots out during the debates. He is the only candidate walking his talk and not taking Pac Money. The only reason to be afraid of Edwards is if you are a big player in corporate greed.

    Hello New Hampshire

    edwards:
    “I want to make an announcement today. No corporate lobbyists or anyone who has lobbied for a foreign government will work in my White House. We will not replace corporate Republicans with corporate Democrats. I hear people argue that the way that you can get things done is to sit at a table with drug companies, insurance companies, oil companies, and negotiate with them and somehow they will voluntarily give away their power. I think this is a complete fantasy.

    “I am proud of the fact that I have never taken money from a Washington lobbyist or a special interest PAC my whole time in public life. I don’t think you can bring about change by taking their money or sitting down at a table and trying to make a deal with them. I think if that worked, we would have universal health care, we would be attacking global warming, we’d have a trade policy that makes sense, and we’d have a tax policy that makes sense. I don’t think these people will give up anything without a fight – they’ve been there too long and they have billions of dollars at stake.”

    • TeakwoodKite

      he will ban corporate lobbyists and foreign government lobbyists from his White House

      And K street too? I am trying to imagine how that will work. Not that it can’t be done, but to what effect? It is fine for Edwards to say that but when was the last time the White House was fumigated?
      Not in my life time that I can recall.

      • Kathleen

        Edwards is the only person to mention the “cakewalk in Iraq” zealots during the debates. He is the only one not taking Pac money.

        He is willing to give it a shot…he is walking his talk right now. I am obviously on his bus. This is the most ballsy action I have seen out of any of the candidates. His stance gives me hope that a politician can actually learn from a mistake and change. Not taking Pac Money. Hillary is Pac Woman and Obama along with the other candidates are Pac Men. The Men and Woman in Pac

  • graywolf

    Once the media figure out that Obama has a fighting chance, Hillary will be media roadkill.

    The media’s principal goal is furtherance of the socialist, “America the bad” agenda.

    Hillary represents that now, but if she looks like a loser, their next man up would be Obama.

    BTW, this explains the media’s new love affair with Huckabee; the easiest Republican to defeat.

    Note; “media” means NBC, ABC, CBS, CNN, NYT, WaPo, AP, newsmagazines and assorted other scum who sneer about “flyover country” and “outside the beltway”.

    • http://noquarterusa.net/blog/ Leslie

      The corporate media wants to further socialism??? Hillary represents socialism in America???

      LOL.

      • graywolf

        Not the “corporate” media; the reporters and editors.
        Yes, they do a have weaker-America, stronger-Government agenda

        And, don’t forget, that excepting Murdoch and a few others, much of the media is family-owned; meaning owned by trust-fund babies who won the DNA sweepstakes.
        Some of these (ie. Sulzbergers, Grahams) are just as left-wing as their newsrooms.
        A luxury enjoyed by people who have never had to work or compete.
        Come to think of it, I just described the leadership of the dem cong party.

        Yes, Shillary is the voice for that.

        Socialism? damned close.

  • TeakwoodKite

    Hillary will be media roadkill….
    the socialist, “America the bad” agenda.
    To much watching O’Rielly,Savage,Oxycotten Man,OVanity…..

    So Huckabee is the easist to defeat? How and why, dare I ask? Enquiring Repub would love to know.

  • CK

    Huckabee is what the republicans have wanted for 16 years, the inverse-Bill, Another Man From Hope.
    http://www.groupnewsblog.net/2008/01/mirror-mirror.html
    Bill without the wandering eye.
    Huck wants to remove birth control pills from the market, when Bill was around they were good things to have.
    It would be a most interesting campaign Anti-Bill vs Mrs. Bill.

    • http://noquarterusa.net/blog/ Leslie

      Doubt that’s true…Huckabee is an odd fish. He supports the social safety net, which the GOP hates. [The GOP wants to keep their tax dollars in smaller and smaller circles.]

      Heard, forget where, that rightwing radio has switched from targeting Clinton to Huckabee instead. They don’t like him.

    • Centrocitta

      There is nothing at all remarkable about Huckabee. He’s as common as they come. Just another boy from the Ozarks who got a guitar for Christmas in 1969 and thought he’d turn out like David Lee Roth. But the talent wasn’t there so he found another way to attract attention — Preaching. Before that, I’d venture to say he even rode with the Arkansas state police to get pumped up. He’s so piss poor mediocre, only the dumbest dummed down Americans would consider him a serious candidate.

  • bob h

    Let’s also not forget that the media, ever eager to crown a new messiah, will now turn on their messiah (Obama) and work on tearing him down. That’s what they do.

    The problem is that they do not have much time to do this. My concern is that there is a developing a gang-bang, herd mentality over a prarie fire candidate, whose fire may go out when it is too late for us.

  • http://OUTRAGEDBUTNOTSURPRISED bama_barrron

    a couple observations about obama’s win last night. first, like hillary and john he pulled around one third of the vote … with the reported independents and crossover voters what does this say about his support from the traditional rank and file of the party? secondly, will there be a “bump” for obama? historically the voters of NH generally dont pay much attention to the iowa results. we shall see…

    personally, i was thrilled john did as well as he did … i had already decided to double my monthly donation to his campaign … my new year’s resolution. i still have to believe john is in this race and can win it with support from the traditional base especially labor. he still remains labor’s best bet of all the candidates.

    as for the republicans, i will defer in making any comments except to simply say … who gives a damn … i wouldnt vote for one anyway.

  • S. Markom

    What Iowa continues to prove is what I believe Presidential elections are about. They are certainly not about experience. Not after leaving Biden, Dodd, Richardson in the dust – clearly the only candidates with real credible experience.

    Presidential elections are about The Promise (hope, vision) and The Personality.

  • CK

    AH the vaunted experience.
    Some folks have 60 years of experiences; other folks have one year of experience repeated 60 times.
    Biden Mr Bankruptcy bill proud possession of the credit card industry is not an example of “experience” he is an example of old and repetitive.

    • Centrocitta

      Get real. I was born and raised in Delaware — long before there was a credit card industry. Biden was a Senator long before then too.

      • CK

        http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0304-26.htm
        Credit cards predate 1972. The year a bright eyed 29 year old Biden first became a senator. Owned lock stock and barrel by the credit card industry.
        Almost as evil as Obama ( who voted against the interest rate cap on credit cards ). Lots of us have been getting those wonderful letters from the CC companies where they unilaterally raise their rates, change their terms and change the definitions of things to their advantage. Don’t like the changes, close the account.
        Have money in a CITI bank account? Try to withdraw it. Citi just unilaterally cut in half the amount you may withdraw from your account at an ATM. I think it might be time to go to your Citi and withdraw all your money.
        Zimbabwe economics thanks to Biden and his ilk is not that far away.

  • Taters

    Dang Larry, you’re a helluva political analyst.
    I agree that not winning NH will make it difficult for JE, and South Carolina is a must win for him.

  • lester1/2jr

    according to rasmussen Paul is at 14% in NH. ahead of huckabee and guliani.

    donavan fraser- the reason press has gotten a 2 nd and 3rd lease on life is that the press lvoes him. they always have. even when he was bottoming out they treated him like a front runner. c span showed one of his town hall meetings. everyone there was like 80.

    he is bush’s 3rd term. “compassionate conservatism” which as we know means both conservatives and liberals will be pissed off. and NO ONE is closer to the israel lobby than he, for those intersted in that issue. lieberman supoprts him for crying out loud. and it’s not becuase of his pork busting

  • lester

    http://www.lewrockwell.com/frank/frank38.html

    ^Edwards vs Paul

    the choice for progressives is clear

    • G Hazeltine

      The lobby loathed David Bonior, but Edwards picked him as campaign manager. Something deeper is going on here. Edward’s ties to the Democratic establishment’s foreign policy (the lobby) aren’t so clear.

  • Pingback: Thoughts on Iowa « Chris Tackett’s Blog

  • Centrocitta

    Proof the polls are not reliable. No way Giuliani will be ahead of Ron Paul in New Hampshire. Where do they come up with these numbers? People from New Hampshire can’t stand New Yorkers!