http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.2b04b3e135c9639d2bbf7a45f32c5bad.201&show_article=1

I want my money in WalMart credits.

Maybe I should increase my concerns a little but I’m not there yet.

My sense is that we will all be blown away by the size of the commitments going forward.

Moral hazard …what’s that?

Could it be he means not “one single dime”, but many many thousands of dimes? Lawyers tend to be literalist manipulators of language, after all.

The current administration and Congress are so pre-occupied with profligate political patronage in the guise of stimulus spending it’s no wonder the market tanks after nearly every new pronouncement.

You are all over this!!! Well done!!

I do think the government is indicating that they are going “all in” and that this may serve to put the equity markets into sideways price action for the time being but willdrive interest rates up sooner rather than later.

http://247wallst.com/2009/02/26/jobs-durables-so-bad-a-possible-inflection-point/

How does a $1.8 Trillion Deficit for the fiscal year sound to you?

Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama’s first budget request would provide as much as $750 billion in new aid to the financial industry, as well as overhaul the U.S. health-care system and launch a program to cut carbon-dioxide emissions.

The spending blueprint, being sent to Congress today, anticipates the government will run a deficit totaling $1.75 trillion in the year ending Sept. 30, equivalent to about 12 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product. Obama has promised to cut the shortfall — the biggest since World War II – - in half by the end of his first term.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aY8vuevw1NKs&refer=home#

http://eye-on-washington.blogspot.com/2009/02/treasurys-rescue-plan.html

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/

Durable Goods Orders Way Down:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Demand-durable-goods-sinks-52/story.aspx?guid=%7B1EC9200E%2D6C12%2D49A8%2DB442%2DCEFD6287D665%7D

Unemployment Claims Way Up:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Initial-jobless-claims-rise-ongoing/story.aspx?guid=%7B498AF5D6%2D0F43%2D42CD%2D9883%2D25E605638967%7D

This is a “Stress Test?” [bwahahahahahaha]

Today, the Federal Reserve answered some questions on the bank “stress test”, which they say is being conducted, “to determine if the largest U.S. banking organizations have sufficient capital buffers to withstand the impact of an economic environment that is more challenging than is currently anticipated.”

Banks have been instructed to analyze potential firm‐wide losses, including in its loan and securities portfolios, as well as from any off‐balance sheet commitments and contingent liabilities/exposures, under two defined economic scenarios over a two year time horizon (2009, 2010). The capital assessment will cover two economic scenarios: a baseline scenario and a more adverse scenario:

Baseline scenario (average):

GDP: -2% (2009), +2.1% (2010)

Unemployment Rate: 8.4% (2009), 8.8% (2010)

House Prices -14% (2009), -4% (2010)

Adverse scenario:

GDP: -3.3% (2009), +0.5% (2010)

Unemployment Rate: 8.9% (2009), 10.3% (2010)

House prices: -22% (2009), -7% (2010)

http://www.streetinsider.com/Economic+Data/Feds+Bank+Stress+Test+Doesnt+Account+For+%22Black+Swan%22/4437298.html

A good example of the “black swan” effect:

“[B]ased on recent data from Housingtracker.net, which is a combined look at condo and single-family home statistics, Las Vegas’s median home values are currently down 40% YoY and 53% from April 2006 (April 2006 Median=$344,900; Today’s Median=$162,500).

Based on the data/trends above, combined with the significant uptick in Las Vegas’s unemployment situation and lack of available mortgage credit, I anticipate foreclosures and inventories to significantly increase and prices to fall another 30% by this time next year.

Stated differently: Today’s Median price is $162,500. After a 30% haircut from here, I expect to see a median of ~ $115K by March 2010 – very close to the $60 median price that I wrote about last year.

http://economicrot.blogspot.com/2009/02/las-vegas-housing-crash-continues.html

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123561551065378405.html?mod=rss_opinion_main

I watched ‘em release “da budget”. Housing sales the worst in 40 years.

Lark, what news are you referring to?

I know people who are only buying gold these days, expensive as it is. I find that to be rather risky as well for the long term. How can an investor commit long-term with so much uncertainty?

LD, how safe do you think simple savings accounts are these days? Is there any FDIC track record we can look to for assurance? I’m wondering if, say, one has a $250,000 savings account in a bank that tanks. How long would it take for the government to settle up? How does it play out? Are there fees involved, etc?