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What changes will Spring bring?

By Old Grumpy Guy on March 15, 2009 at 3:45 PM in Current Affairs, Economic Stimulus, Economy

Is it just coincidence that the stock market began to show gains just as the first buds of Spring began to show themselves after a particularly dismal winter?

Whatever the effects of the Obama Administration’s policies, I have a feeling that the general outlook will at least marginally improve as the weather improves.

Psychology is a powerful force behind economic activity, and the seasons can have a powerful impact on the way people view the state of their lives. Maybe a little more sunshine might provide a more effective stimulus than we have been offered so far.

I hope so. And I am willing to bet that we will all be feeling a little better and that things will not look quite so bad as they have been looking. Of course, it would be difficult for the gloom barometer to fall much lower than it has already done.

Anyway, it’s given me the excuse to air one of my videos – one with a pastoral, spring-like feel to it (I hope) – and once again to shamelessly promote my music. This video features music from Passion’s Progress.

http://noquarter foxyladi14

i agree.we are much happier in Spring..
Linda Anselmi

Great Video. On a cool and rainy day, it’s nice to see and think about the promise of spring. Thanks OGG, for brightening up my Sunday!
mountainaires

Very enjoyable. Thanks for sharing his work, Passion’s Progress.
andrew191

Who wrote “In the spring a young man’s fancy turns lightly toward thoughts of love.”? Or something like that. Well, the current global economic meltdown coupled with the pervasive destruction of socio/political moral standards, nicely crushes that whimsical sentiment like a petunia under a jackboot. Or am I too optimistic?
socalannie

I believe Tennyson wrote it. Great thought–goes with the video.
socalannie

Beautiful video, Grumps! Thanks for posting!
andrew191

THANKYOU socalannie, I had’t a clue. I’m not even sure I quoted it precisely, it was just lingering in the depths of my long term memory under a thick net of cobwebs. I just hope it’s not MY “Rosebud” statement.
lark

I disagree with your positive outlook although I don’t blame you for being upbeat on spring. Your views are reasonable, yet I will provide you with why they may not play out as you suppose. But I want to preface first by saying that I too find some solace in last weeks improvements and would wish they would continue forward. Having said that, I can see I am only wishing what cannot possibly happen. And like a death patient that sometimes get a brief respite that tends to give the love ones reasons for hope, it usually is just a simple respite due to a spiritual cleansing process. And cleansing is what we need. And is not going to happen until you pile on more suffering.

I think the spring will bring the refusal of the Chinese to purchase more U.S. debt.

Once that happens, the economy will return to a downward trend. And I see many reasons why the Chinese will refuse to continue to stockpile U.S. debt. But at the core is a complete distrust in Obama. The Chinese can spot a Con-man at a distance and they know Obama is an accomplished and inspired Con-man. Above that, the U.S. economy and political sins simply cannot be wiped out as simply as we would wish. The U.S. economy will not turn around until the country commits to re-industrialization and that may not happen at all ever again.
andrew191

Wow Lark, your post sure desiccated my wet blanket. Well done!
cynic

We currently spend about $700 billion per year for imported oil. It’s only going to get more expensive, due both to increasing global demand and the enormous military costs of protecting the supply lines.

If we switched over to domestic alternative energy during the next 10 years–large scale solar and wind–we’d not only have the permanent domestic jobs related to the transition, but at least $700 billion per year remaining in the U.S. economy. We’d be providing unlimited cheap energy to power American reindustrialization and agriculture. We’d also be in a position to export the technology to the rest of the world. Alterntaive energy technology will be the next big boom industry, and it’s going to be booming on a global scale.

We’re getting ready to do this. It’s part of the stimulus package. Carbon tax is also part of the plan. It’s intended not just as a climate change response, but to force the transition to alternative energy into high gear. The smart grid is also part of the plan.

A lot of people don’t seem to have noticed how all of this fits together. They’re looking at the individual pieces of the puzzle as if they’re unrelated policy decision. None of it is random. It’s understanding how the pieces all fit together to form a picture that makes me feel very positive about America’s economic future, in spite of our current problems.
cynic

And then, we have this:

President “Bobby”: Mr. Gardner, do you agree with Ben, or do you think that we can stimulate growth through temporary incentives?
[Long pause]
Chance the Gardener: As long as the roots are not severed, all is well. And all will be well in the garden.
President “Bobby”: In the garden.
Chance the Gardener: Yes. In the garden, growth has it seasons. First comes spring and summer, but then we have fall and winter. And then we get spring and summer again.
President “Bobby”: Spring and summer.
Chance the Gardener: Yes.
President “Bobby”: Then fall and winter.
Chance the Gardener: Yes.
Benjamin Rand: I think what our insightful young friend is saying is that we welcome the inevitable seasons of nature, but we’re upset by the seasons of our economy.
Chance the Gardener: Yes! There will be growth in the spring!
Benjamin Rand: Hmm!
Chance the Gardener: Hmm!
President “Bobby”: Hm. Well, Mr. Gardner, I must admit that is one of the most refreshing and optimistic statements I’ve heard in a very, very long time.
[Benjamin Rand applauds]
President “Bobby”: I admire your good, solid sense. That’s precisely what we lack on Capitol Hill.

(I will remind you that at the end of the movie, Chance–whom we have all basically come to see as a fool–walks out across the surface of a pond while no one else is watching, and pauses briefly to test its depth with his rolled up umbrella.)
lark

Cynic you are a moron. How many time have we discussed the fallacies of your arguments and you keep making them. 1 barrel of oil has more energy than hundreds of solar panels and dozens of wind turbines operating for 12 months at a time.

1 corner gas station packs the power of thousands upon thousands of solar panels and wind turbines operating for 5 years.

Stop the stupidity, please.
trixta

Thank you, Grumpy, for your positive commentary and lovely music! So true, “this, too, shall pass” — one can hope, anyway.

But just for a bit of wicked fun, I can’t resist this hilarious passage from Hal Ashby’s BEING THERE:

Pres. “Bobby”: Mr. Gardner, do you agree [...] that we can stimulate growth through temporary incentives?

Chauncey Gardener: As long as the roots are not severed, all is well. And all will be well in the garden. [....] In the garden, growth has it seasons. First comes spring and summer, but then we have fall and winter. And then we get spring and summer again.

Pres. “Bobby”: Spring and summer. [....] Then fall and winter.

Ben Rand: I think what our insightful young friend is saying is that we welcome the inevitable seasons of nature, but we’re upset by the seasons of our economy.

[....]

Pres. “Bobby”: Hm. Well, Mr. Gardner, I must admit that is one of the most refreshing and optimistic statements I’ve heard in a very, very long time. [....] I admire your good, solid sense. That’s precisely what we lack on Capitol Hill.
trixta

Absolutely, lark! The industrial base must be shored up in this country. Without it we’re doomed and most certainly heading the way toward third-worldism.

BTW, Alex Jones’ film THE OBAMA DECEPTION (on infowars.com or on Sugar n’Spice’s website) is finally out, and as far as conspiracy analysis goes, it offers much food for thought. Jones provides a provocative history of the real power brokers behind the world scene and tries to fill in the gaps concerning the hidden agenda driving the Obama “presidency.” Webster Tarpley, the historian and Obama’s unofficial biographer, also provides historical analysis on the geopolitics of world finance, etc.
trixta

I posted the same passage from BEING THERE above, but edited it for brevity’s sake.
trixta

The film THE OBAMA DECEPTION also discusses how the cap-and-trade tax and global warming agenda figure in the restructuring of the world economies. The film isn’t optimistic, to say the least, but it does inspire you to look into things a bit more.
cynic

There are no fallacies in my argument. The science is there, waiting to be fully expressed in 21st Century technology. Going there now is the only alternative to a cascading failure of industrial-based civilization. People who understand that simple fact are not morons.

There is, however, a very serious problem with the argument that the nation or the human race are going to get much farther fueling rapidly expanding industrialization with 19th Century energy technologies, dependent upon escallating the rate of consumption of a rapidly diminishing global supply of petroleum. That’s as dead end as any road gets, and as wrong-headed as planning for the future comes
cynic

Yeah, and please pardon the repetition. I very much like that film. The last scene is important.
lark

So, please estimate as your best guess, how many solar panels and wind mills would be needed to run a solar panel factory and how many of them would be needed to run a wind mill manufacturing plant?
cynic

Clever German engineers have been at it again. A single German Enercon E-126 wind turbine–the biggest in current production–is capable of generating 7 megawatts, or 7 million watts, of electrical output. This would power 1,776 average American homes.

http://www.metaefficient.com/news/new-record-worlds-largest-wind-turbine-7-megawatts.html

How many millions of watts does that hypothetical factory need?
cynic

BTW, some are predicting China’s use of wind turbine generation could increase as much as 1667% by 2020. They’re shooting for 20 gigawatts of wind generated electricity by 2010 and 100 gigawatts by 2020. I wonder if the US will get in on the expanding global energy market?

A couple of South American countries are building wind turbines with the intention of exporting electrical energy for profit.

Maybe the US could offer to sell somebody coal…

http://ecoworldly.com/2008/07/03/energy-experts-say-chinas-wind-energy-could-grow-1667-by-2020/
lark

Probably 7 megawatts, maybe twice as much. So your factory is out of the question because it won’t be able to afford the cost of electricity and make the wind mills cost effective.

Electricity from that type of windmill will cost the factory between 10 and 20 million per year. That’s electricity alone. While if they are supplied with oil burning electrical plant they will pay only about 2 million. A difference of 8 to 18 million dollars just for electricity alone.
cynic

Economy of scale is the central issue. Once the infrastructure is in place, there’s a point where solar and wind generated power become significantly cheaper than conventional energy. This is why China is currently on course to be feeding 20 gigawatts of wind-generated electricity into their grid by 2010, and 100 gigawatts by 2020. How well will we be competing with them by then?

We could easily be bleeding a trillion bucks a year from our economy just to purchase oil on the global market.
ello

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