Hillary + WON = 44
By Fleaflicker on March 15, 2008 at 5:32 PM in Barack Obama, Electoral College, Hillary Clinton
Much has been made about Obama’s “impressive” wins in 26 states. He himself brags on the campaign trail that he has won more states, received more votes and has more pledged delegates than Hillary. And yes, if that is all you look at it does look impressive. But like much of what Obama says, the words sound wonderful but the facts beneath them tell a completely different story.
The baseline measurement of any Democratic candidate is their ability to win in November. Many things factor into this but most important of all is the ability to get out the vote. And this is where the claims by Obama begin to fade away. A recent poll Quarter of Clinton supporters would vote McCain over Obama by Pew Research (a very highly respected organization) found that 25% of Hillary supporters said that they will defect from the party and vote for McCain in November should Obama become the nominee. Whereas 10% of Obama supporters stated that they would vote for McCain should Hillary get the nomination. So with this fact in mind let us examine the real prize in November, the Electoral College.
Obama does indeed have a large cache of victories. To date he has won in 26 states. And comparatively speaking, on this measurement alone Hillary comes up quite short with current wins in only 16 states. But, you might ask, if Obama has this great lead of wins why is the delegate count so close? And that is the crux of all of this. Using 2008 Democratic Convention Watch as a source for the current delegate count Delegate Totals we see that Senator Obama has 1390 pledged delegates and 208 superdelegates for a total of 1598. Hillary on the other hand has 1248 pledged delegates and 244 superdelegates for a total of 1492. So at this juncture there are a total of 106 delegates separating the candidates. NOTE: Hillary’s wins in Michigan and Florida have not to date yielded her any delegates even though she won both states with double digit leads. So despite the fact that Obama has won 10 more states than Hillary, at present he is only leading her by 106 delegates, approximately 10 delegates for each additional state won.
The magic delegate number to gain the Democratic nomination is 2025. A total of 844 superdelegates exist (counting Michigan and Florida) of which 452 of them are already pledged to a candidate. That leaves a total of 392 superdelegates up for grabs. If the convention were held today neither candidate would have enough delegates to clinch the nomination. Even if one candidate were to gain all of the outstanding superdelegates before the convention began they would both fall short of the number necessary to gain the nomination by regular party rules. Under this scenario Obama would have 1990 delegates. And Hillary would have 1884 delegates. But you notice I said regular party rules.
Ah, this is where it gets a lot more interesting.
The invention of the superdelegates was in response to a few major blowouts at the hands of the Republicans. Our selected candidates during these landslides did indeed have the popular support of the majority of Democratic voters going into the convention but as it turned out they just didn’t have what it took to win nationwide. Two of the most important tasks that the superdelegates were given to remedy future embarrassments were: 1) To nominate a candidate who can win and 2) To check against a plurality, factional candidate who does not reflect the prevailing sentiment of the electorate. Now these two duties might be interpreted in a number of ways but essentially it means that their responsibility is to ensure that the Democratic nominee doesn’t just have the majority of Democratic support but has the broad based appeal to win in important states that will allow our party to arrive at the true magic number in November: 270
So in light of this evidence let us examine the popular support of the two candidates.
In the Presidential election of 2004, John Kerry managed to gain 252 votes in the Electoral college, 18 votes shy of victory. Kerry lost for a number of reasons that will not be discussed in this diary. But the fact is that he lost. Using Kerry’s wins as a starting point as something to build upon toward victory in November we need to examine the strength of our two candidates in securing those “Kerry” votes.
Senator Obama has managed to secure a total of 86 of the Kerry votes. Voters in VT, MD, IL, WI, DC, CT, DE, HI, WA, MN and ME supported both Senator Kerry and Senator Obama. So Senator Obama has secured 11 of the states that are necessary to meet our baseline Kerry votes threshold.
Hillary on the other hand has managed to secure 134 of the Kerry votes. Voters in CA, NY, MA, NJ ,MI and NH. So Hillary has secured 6 of the states that are necessary to meet our baseline Kerry votes threshold.
On the face of it this information seems to demonstrate that Senator Obama has a strong advantage. He has secured 11 of the Kerry states while Hillary has only secured 6 of them. It appears as if Senator Obama has a 5 state lead over Hillary and thus has bragging rights as the front runner in this nomination process. But look a little deeper and you will notice that Hillary has a 48 electoral vote total advantage over Senator Obama. In fact the difference between them is as if the Obama states of VT, MD, WI, DC, CT, DE, HI and ME didn’t exist because the difference between Hillary’s 6 Kerry states (134 votes) and Senator Obama’s 11 Kerry states (86 votes) is greater than these 8 Kerry states combined (44 votes).
And if we look deeper into the wins of each candidate we learn even more about the viability of each of them.
Of Senator Obama’s impressive 26 state wins 12 of those wins are in red states where the possibility of a Democratic win in the general election is far fetched and highly speculative at best. Those states are: MS, GA, AL, LA, UT, SC, WY, NE, AK, ID, KS and ND. These are not widely recognized as Democratic strongholds.
Conversely Hillary has won in 3 “red” states: TX, AZ, and OK. Not exactly an impressive total. But all is not lost. You see, we haven’t even begun discussing what will win an election. As neither candidate has achieved the necessary delegates to assure the nomination we need to look deeper and see just where the candidates stand in meeting the all important 270 vote threshold.
If we take the most generous look at the current results we will give Senator Obama a total of 202 electoral votes. It is generous because, as has already been stated, 12 of those wins are in red states that we have VERY little chance of winning in November. And let us be equally generous to Hillary. When we add the electoral votes from the 16 states she has won the total is 263. So the difference separating the two candidates is 61 electoral votes. Put another way Hillary has a 61 electoral vote advantage over Senator Obama.
But as with all things political we must look even deeper into the results to grasp the real meaning, the hidden calculus toward victory.
Most important in this election are the “swing” states. States that either have a history of going one way or the other or states that have changed their legislative makeup significantly since the last election.
Of Senator Obama’s 26 states he has won in a total of 4 swing states: VA, MO, CO and IA. The electoral votes in these swing states total 40. Supposing that Senator Obama was able to win in each of these states he would gain a total of 40 electoral votes. And if we add the previous total of Kerry state electoral votes of 86 to 40 from these swing state electoral votes Senator Obama receives a grand total of 126 electoral college votes, leaving him 144 electoral votes shy of victory.
Of Hillary’s 16 states she has won in a total of 6 swing states: OH, TN, NM, AR, FL, and NV. The electoral votes in these swing states total 74. Supposing that Hillary was able to win in each of these states she would gain a total of 74 electoral votes. And if we add the previous total of Kerry state electoral votes of 134 to 74 from these swing state electoral votes Hillary receives a grand total of 208 electoral college votes, or 62 electoral votes shy of wrapping this thing up.
To sum up, according to a broad look at how well both of our candidates would do in the general election it seems that Hillary has a 82 electoral vote lead over Senator Obama. Quite astounding since he has a 10 state advantage. But politics is a funny sport and what matters more than anything is who can achieve that magic number 270.
So while the primaries are not over and almost everyone has been writing Hillary off, a careful examination of the facts leads one to understand that Hillary is not only winning this thing but that she is positioned best to win in November.
I do hope that the superdelegates are paying attention and that they take their responsibilities very seriously. Because their most important responsibility is to make certain that we nominate a candidate that can win. And as this synopsis has proven, Hillary is already winning.
And she will win in November.
by Ronald Scott
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