How Much Lipstick Can a Pig Wear?
By Larry Johnson on March 16, 2008 at 8:28 PM in Current Affairs
Five years after the start of the war in Iraq–a war of our choosing–peace, reconciliation, and tranquility throughout Iraq remain elusive goals. The surge in U.S. troops starting one year ago was accompanied, eventually, by a decline in the number of attacks on both civilians and U.S. forces. However, it was not the increase in the number of troops that achieved the drop in violence, but a change in strategy. The core of that strategy focused on engaging the Sunni chieftains throughout the Anbar province and paying for the militia to protect their local areas.
Despite the best efforts of Senator McCain and neocons to proclaim the surge a success, even General Petraeus now acknowledges that the Shia led government of Maliki has failed to take advantage of the drop in violence. Moreover, the number of attacks and murders is moving up again. Adding to the gloom is this report in today’s Los Angeles Times by Garrett Therolf about his efforts to report on “good” news. He tried to report, for example, on the opening and operations of a state bank in Amariya. According to Therolf:
“The unit operating in the same area as the bank doesn’t categorize the bank operations as a top priority because they don’t directly affect the good of the community of Amiriya,” an Army spokesman, Maj. Mark Cheadle, wrote in an e-mail. “So, the bottom line is they would rather not sponsor an embed or visit for something they don’t deal with on a regular basis.” My request for a follow-up “embed” was denied.
I tried to arrange a visit that would not involve the military, but the neighborhood is surrounded by checkpoints that were judged too dangerous for us to pass. Without being accompanied by soldiers, there was no way for me to tell the story.
Cheadle proposed that I instead write about a videoconference that allowed schoolchildren in Baghdad and Texas to ask questions of each other. I declined.
A few days later, the restaurant employees said they had changed their minds about the interview. They were too scared to raise their profile through a news story. And a Chinese Embassy spokesman said his office had persuaded them to return home, although they were still operating in recent days. “The situation is far too dangerous for them to work here,” the spokesman said.
Because of such fears and the inefficiency that pervades the capital, these “good news” stories evaporated before I could tell them. After only a month in Iraq, I once again left having filed mostly “bad news” stories.
The crazy fantasy of John McCain that things are swell in Iraq and headed toward nirvana will not survive the fall campaign. No matter how much lipstick you put on a pig it is still a pig. You can dress a pig in a negligee or pants, but it is still a pig. And Iraq’s quest for unity will remain a fools errand. Iraq will remain a country controlled largely by Shias, which is riven by sectarian strife. The options confronting the next President, be it McCain, Obama, or Hillary are daunting. The following will constrain what can be done:
The Economic Crisis: The US economy is tied to the financial markets like an anchor to a ship. And the anchor is dragging the ship of state under water. Financial institutions, like Bear Stearns, are struggling to survive, and foreclosures on overdue mortgages are mounting. Given these facts, it is likely that the U.S. budget deficit will balloon rather than shrink in the coming year. How then will Congress be able to continue to spend $9 billion dollars a month in Iraq when U.S. taxpayers are hurting? I don’t see any way out but a cut in spending on projects in Iraq. That means are ability to influence events with our checkbook will shrink, not grow.
The Army Manpower Crisis: Our Army, Army Reserve, and National Guard are worn out. Units and equipment have been degraded significantly because of sustained deployments. The U.S. Army has met recruiting goals by accepting for enlistment men and women previously considered not not qualified. For example, only 72% of those enlisted are high school graduates. Prior to 9-11, the figure approached 100%. The rebuilding of the Army and restocking the vehicles, weapons, and aircraft burned up during the course of the wars in both Iraq and Afghanistan will be an expensive proposition. And lets not forget the costs of health care for veterans carrying grievous physical and psychological wounds.
The best way to address the manpower issue to rebuild the Army is to institute a draft. But that is a political impossibility. The majority of Americans would not support such a move. The efforts of the next President and Congress will be focused on trying to restore the Army to its pre-911 strength.
The Iraq Security Challenge: With 250,000 to 400,000 troops on the ground in Iraq the United States would be in a position to help the Iraqi government restore public order. But we do not have the troops available to achieve that objective. Moreover, to acquire the necessary number of soldiers, assuming a draft was imposed, would put us at least two years away from being able to field new divisions that would allow us to achieve 250,000 boots on the ground. Bottomline–there is no viable short term solution available that would allow any President to boost our troop presence in Iraq.
Foreign fighters account for a very small percentage of the violence in Iraq. The vast majority of the foreign fighters are Sunni extremists and want to target U.S. troops, Shia populations, and Sunnis disposed to cooperate with the United States. So far U.S. Special Operations forces have been playing a critical and effective role in locating and killing these extremists. It appears that the Maliki government remains favorably disposed to let U.S. forces take this part of the fight to the radical Islamists. It is at a minimum an acknowledgment that U.S. forces are helping protect the Shia government from Sunni extremists bent on eliminating the Shia influence.
During the coming year the number of U.S. casualties will be lower than the numbers racked up in 2007. But the numbers will still hover around 30 dead and 100 wounded American soldiers every month. Though small relative to the losses during the height of the Vietnam war, the economic and psychological toll on the U.S. forces will be severe.
A rapid pullout of U.S. forces is likely to be accompanied by a significant surge in sectarian violence. Population displacement will accelerate throughout Iraq, as the Sunnis, Shia, and Kurds seeks the safety of traditional tribal areas. The likely result is a more balkanized Iraq.
The Regional Foreign Policy Challenge: The weakening of the U.S. economy will be accompanied by growing concern among our Middle East allies about our ability to play a constructive role in the region. A precipitous withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq will heighten those concerns. At the same time, Iran’s influence in Iraq will remain strong, and possible expand.
There is no doubt that the United States is doing heavy duty saber rattling towards Iran. So far Iran, wisely, has recognized it is winning the political battle and has shied away from an open confrontation with the United States. If we escape the Bush Administration’s lust for a new war, the next President will face the task of engaging Iran. We should harbor no illusions that the perception that the U.S. is retreating from Iraq will not help us attain political leverage with Iran. The question of Iran, regardless who is selected as the next President, will likely be a top priority foreign policy issue during his or her term.
Bottomline–there is no silver bullet, no magic pain free solution on the horizon. We need to think carefully about what our national interests are in the Middle East and construct a policy capable of achieving those goals.
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