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Campaign 2008: Pundits Versus Reality

By SusanUnPC on March 28, 2008 at 12:35 PM in Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Superdelegates

peter-daou.jpgSusanUnPC’s note: Peter Daou is the Internet Director for the Hillary Clinton campaign. Mr. Daou’s article was originally posted at BlogHillary, the official blog for Hillary Clinton’s campaign. We are reprinting it in full.
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THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton will lose New Hampshire and the race will be over
THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton wins New Hampshire, defying the predictions and the polls


THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton will lose the big states on Super Tuesday
and the race will be over
THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton wins the big states on Super Tuesday –
and wins them by double digits




THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton will lose Texas and possibly Ohio on March 4th
and the race will be over
THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton wins both Texas and Ohio on March 4th –
and she wins Ohio by double digits

 

THE PUNDITS
Despite Hillary Clinton’s big victories on March 4th, "the math" works decisively against her and the race is essentially over
THE REALITY
The math is simple: neither candidate has reached the number of delegates required to secure the nomination and either candidate can win

 

THE PUNDITS
Barack Obama is substantially ahead in the pledged delegate count; pledged delegates are the only measure of success; therefore the race is essentially over
THE REALITY 
The candidates are within fractions of one another on delegates; Barack Obama needs super delegates to win; and a marginal pledged delegate lead does not determine the outcome

 

THE PUNDITS
Barack Obama is substantially ahead in the popular vote; Florida and Michigan don’t count; therefore the race is essentially over
THE REALITY
The popular vote is virtually tied; half of Barack Obama’s narrow vote advantage is from his home state; and his lead excludes Florida and Michigan

 

THE PUNDITS
Once the remaining states vote, Barack Obama will be substantially ahead in delegates and votes and the race will be over
THE REALITY
The race is a dead heat now and no one knows where things will end up after millions of remaining voters in the upcoming states make their choice

 

THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton’s situation is dire; her campaign is struggling; her supporters are disillusioned and desperate 
THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton and her supporters are calm, confident, and focused heading into the key state of PA, where she is running strong

 

THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton’s campaign lacks significant grassroots energy; only one candidate has mobilized supporters to take action for the campaign
THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton’s supporters across America have written letters, blogged, donated tens of millions of dollars, volunteered millions of hours and made millions of calls

 

THE PUNDITS
There is a loud and growing chorus of voices asking Hillary Clinton to withdraw from the race
THE REALITY
Precisely the same number of voters (22%) think Barack Obama should drop out of the race as Hillary Clinton

 

THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton is the candidate running a negative, divisive campaign; she is throwing the "kitchen sink" at Barack Obama
THE REALITY
Barack Obama has been throwing the sink, the stove, the plates and the garbage can at Hillary Clinton, attacking her integrity and character every day

 

THE PUNDITS
For Hillary to win the nomination, super delegates will have to "overturn the will of the people"
THE REALITY
The will of the people is split and both candidates need – and are making their case to – super delegates

 

THE PUNDITS
Hillary Clinton is threatening to poach pledged delegates from Barack Obama
THE REALITY
Barack Obama is reportedly already trying to poach pledged delegates from Hillary Clinton

 

THE PUNDITS
Florida and Michigan’s voters won’t be heard and their delegates won’t be seated all because of complicated procedural roadblocks
THE REALITY
Barack Obama is intentionally disenfranchising voters in two critical states for purely political reasons, namely, that he’ll lose his small advantage if they count

 

THE PUNDITS
Every single word or action from Hillary Clinton, her campaign, her surrogates and her supporters is part of a calculated and cynical political strategy
THE REALITY
Hillary Clinton is a loyal Democrat, a lifelong public servant, a tireless and
tenacious candidate, and is fighting hard – and fair – to win with the help of millions of dedicated supporters

  • DCDemocrat

    Well, I confess that I am part of the 22% that think it’s time for Obama to pull out of the race. His cause is quixotic at best and a disaster of historical proportions at worst. He should save face and hope for a future race when he has the experience to be president he said in 2004 he did not have.

  • hillarysmygirl

    Ah, a nice dose of reality first thing in the morning…
    Thanks!

  • John

    Every time the media has set up a flaming hoop and announced “Hillary must jump through this or it’s over,” she’s cleared the hoop with flying colors- only to see another hoop being set up in front of her.

    If she loses NH, its over. She won NH? Well, that’s just because she cried. Besides, NH is racist.

    If she loses Nevada, its over. She won Nevada? Well, that’s just because Bill twisted the arms of the casino workers. And Latinos hate blacks.

    If she loses California, its over. She won California? Well, that’s just because there was a lot of early voting. If the voters there had just waited, they would have been touched by the Magic that Is Barack Obama.

    If she loses Ohio or Texas, its over. She won both? Well, not by enough. It’s still over. Besides, she cheated with that red phone ad, which was unfair because it suggested that she was better qualified to be President.

    And now- to hell with it. It doesn’t matter if she wins PA, NC, Indiana, West Virginia, Puerto Rico, etc. She’s finished no matter what. It’s over. Let’s see you jump through THAT hoop, you bi– I mean, Senator Clinton!

    • AF catfish

      Or:

      by winning 3 of 4 states on Mar. 4, and planning to win Pennsylvania, Hillary is tearing the party apart. She should drop out.

      shorter:

      By winning primaries, Hillary is dividing the party.

      • simon

        Fuuny, wasn’t Wright just vacationing in Puerto Rico?

        And Obama’s PR super delegate was just indicted there for….now wait for it…among other things, campaign finance irregularities.

        I wonder if he knows Rezko, too?

  • Strawberrybitch

    Susan, Taylor Marsh has John McCain’s new ad up and it’s geared toward Obama. If BO wins the nomination there is no way he can beat McCain. The ad was very powerful and will bleed away all the typical white people who were shat on by Obama’s minions. All Mccain has to do is show that ad against Michelle’s “for once I’m proud of America” and Wright’s “God damn America” and that’s it, game over.

  • Taters

    Thanks Susan for posting this. Peter Daou nails it.
    You mean the pundits won’t police themselves?

  • Blue State Girl

    Slate is so clever: Yesterday it introduced a new daily feature, “The Hillary Deathwatch” to track her “dwindling chances at winning the nomination.”

    Hillary Clinton is as good as dead. This became the consensus over the past week, when the media awoke en masse to the dual reality that 1) Clinton can’t close the pledged-delegate gap and 2) Obama has her beat in the popular vote. But the Clinton campaign shows no signs of slowing—she said herself she’s prepared to compete for at least three more months. So the question now is not just “How dead is she?” but “When will she realize it?”

    They’re putting her odds at “a generous 12 percent.” The artwork for the column shows Hillary in a sinking ship because, frankly, the pundits at Slate don’t think her chances will go above 20%.

    Lovely.

    • AF catfish

      I have a pavlovian response to this now: when the media asks when Hillary will wake up and realize it’s over, I think cool! She’ll win Pennsylvania!

      • simon

        Perception is reality, but you know, before you try to spin the perception, you should be sure of the reality.

        Doesn’t seem to matter with Obama’s brainless tools.

        They don’t get it.

  • Andy

    This is absolutely awesome. Peter Daou is brilliant.
    I really like this guy, he has wit, very sharp indeed.

    My favorite one: (can’t stop laughing).

    THE PUNDITS
    Hillary Clinton is the candidate running a negative, divisive campaign; she is throwing the “kitchen sink” at Barack Obama
    THE REALITY
    Barack Obama has been throwing the sink, the stove, the plates and the garbage can at Hillary Clinton, attacking her integrity and character every day

    Glad he pointed out Obama is already poaching pledged delagates from Hillary Clinton.

  • rjj

    These time wasting, full-of-shit, wrong-about-just-about-everything pundits are admitted into our lives via the toxic box. If they were neighbors or colleagues they would not get past the door.

  • Dora Ratquila

    Let’s just see how the Obamabots – and the general population (especially the so-called Independents and Republicans who got intoxicated with a few drinks of the lethal Kool Aid mix) most specially – react to the McCain ads. Axelrod and Plouffe won’t be able to spin their way out of this one. Casey should have waited. But anyway, good riddance to all those non-supporters of Hillary. She derives her strength from the people and not the Washington elite who are out of touch with their constituents. Fortunately for Pennsylvania, John Murtha isn’t!

  • Mitchman

    I think Peter Daou lives on planet “Htrae” and writes for the Bizzaro World Blog, where evertything he states is the opposite. BIZZARO WORLD..

    Explains a lot actually….

  • Dora Ratquila

    And poor Mitchman is too classy to get an antidote for the lethal Kool-Aid drink (or perhaps it already comes in aerosol spray) and mistakenly thinks that his preferred candidate is invincible. Fortunately, the voices of the people of Michigan and Florida will still be heard – no matter what you guys say – and Obama will NEVER win the nomination fair and square.

    • simon

      I dunno.

      Can you imagine Michelle Obama in the White House?

      No?

      A lot of others can’t, either.

  • kenoshaMarge

    In any real world scenario when someone was so wrong so often they would then have the integrity to apologize and then keep their mouth shut.

    Pundidiots don’t have the class to keep quiet no matter how often they have been proven to not know what the hell they’re talking about. Perhaps Pundidiot DNA doesn’t allow for introspection, integrity, or honesty.

    I never paid much attention to any of them and pay none at all now. I read, I research, I seek out bits and pieces of fact when I can and then, I make my own decisions and make up my own mind. (I know, I know, how dare I think I have the right to make up my own mind without benefit of a pundidiot telling me what’s what?) But it works for me. And listening to some pinheaded Pundidiot with the I.Q. of a jelly bean just doesn’t.

  • http://donnadarko.wordpress.com donna darko

    Thanks.

  • fribbles

    Finally. More of this from Camp Clinton, please.

  • jwrjr

    Now we know why there is no malpractice insurance for pundits. The insurance companies would go broke paying out claims.

  • buckskin711

    what a refreshing page in the murky world of obama bullshit. i feel so much better now, thank you ! back to the blogs to scream at them or maybe not. like chuck schumer said of hillary, “she can take a punch and get right back up again”. sounds like presidential material to me instead of obama whining all the time. like he told cnn “he just wants to be left alone”. what a lying wimp.

  • Mr.Murder

    like he told cnn “he just wants to be left alone”. what a lying wimp.-by buckskin711

    Leave BritneyBarack ALONE!

  • jm korbel

    A small miracle I found this site, especially tonight after arriving home to hear MSNBC give major air time to what they called the “Clinton’s planned exit strategy”. They followed that headline with a cheery chat about whether she should be Governor of New York or the new Speaker of the House?!

    Looking on, I thought I had gone through a black hole into a nightmare universe. Then I went to Hillaryclinton.com, where humor was demonstrated in a campaign leader’s comment that Hillary is still being accused of drowning puppies and torturing babies. Then to my email box for several up-to-date campaign strategy reports and thanks for my volunteer work.

    Then I made my way to this sane site, with its list of punditmania v. reality. Now I can get a good night’s sleep and follow that with taking the advice of many of your comments. I will follow your example and not even turn the idiots on. As someone above said, I wouldn’t let a neighbor or colleague that insane and vicious in my home, so why invite in toxic MSM?

  • Joe Schmo

    Obama is ridin’ Hillary dirty!!!

  • Kevin

    So Peter, about that Pundits vs Reality thing and your prediction for Texas…

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