NeoCons Go Ballistic on Iran NIE
By Larry Johnson on December 4, 2007 at 9:57 PM in Current Affairs
“How can you trust the intelligence community to get it right on Iran? They got Iraq wrong in 2002 and now this?” The “this” is the NIE on Iran and its search for nukes.
That in a nutshell is one of the prevalent reactions of neocons and Bush true believers. But wait, there is more. John Bolton told Wolf Blitzer that the NIE was the handiwork of exiled State Department officials hell bent on undermining Bush and this country.
Well, I think it’s potentially wrong. But I would also say many of the people who wrote this are former State Department employees who, during their career at the State Department, never gave much attention to the threat of the Iranian program. Now they are writing as members of the intelligence community, the same opinions that they have had four and five years ago.
This is one of the neocon talking points. Check out the ravings of Norman Podhoretz, a senior statesman of the neocons. The Pod Man wrote:
I must confess to suspecting that the intelligence community, having been excoriated for supporting the then universal belief that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction, is now bending over backward to counter what has up to now been a similarly universal view (including as is evident from the 2005 NIE, within the intelligence community itself) that Iran is hell-bent on developing nuclear weapons. I also suspect that, having been excoriated as well for minimizing the time it would take Saddam to add nuclear weapons to his arsenal, the intelligence community is now bending over backward to maximize the time it will take Iran to reach the same goal.
But I entertain an even darker suspicion. It is that the intelligence community, which has for some years now been leaking material calculated to undermine George W. Bush, is doing it again. This time the purpose is to head off the possibility that the President may order air strikes on the Iranian nuclear installations. As the intelligence community must know, if he were to do so, it would be as a last resort, only after it had become undeniable that neither negotiations nor sanctions could prevent Iran from getting the bomb, and only after being convinced that it was very close to succeeding. How better, then, to stop Bush in his tracks than by telling him and the world that such pressures have already been effective and that keeping them up could well bring about “a halt to Iran’s entire nuclear weapons program”—especially if the negotiations and sanctions were combined with a goodly dose of appeasement or, in the NIE’s own euphemistic formulation, “with opportunities for Iran to achieve its security, prestige, and goals for regional influence in other ways.”
This blog was one of the first to report that the NIE was being delayed for political reasons. George Bush tried his moron act again today (i.e., “I didn’t find out about this until last week.”) but this time the turd ain’t floating. The news that Iran ended its nuclear program in 2003 was briefed to George Bush in the Presidential Daily Brief. He has known about this, I am told, for at least one year. George Bush is lying when he insists he had no inkling, until last week, that the intelligence community believed Iran halted its nuke program in 2003.
This is the kind of earthshaking intel that analysts rarely get to see. What is remarkable about the NIE is the consensus in the intelligence community about the validity of this info. Compare this to the execrable 2002 NIE on Iraq. There was no consensus in the intelligence community about Iraq’s efforts to acquire nukes. The”true believers” held the day and their position was prominently featured in the final draft. Dissenters–State’s Intelligence and Research Bureau and the Department of Energy–were relegated to footnotes and comments separated from the claim.
When you do an NIE it is incumbent on the writers to clearly state whether there is consensus or dissent. And if there is disagreement then that should be reflected in the text. In the case of the October 2002 abortion, the NIC editors should have noted that there was disagreement in the intelligence community about Iraq’s efforts to rebuild its nuclear program. They should have written something like, “analysts at the CIA and DIA believe Saddam is trying but analysts at INR and DOE believe the evidence points to non-nuclear activity”. Instead, the NIC editors let stand the misleading notion that Iraq was rebuilding a nuclear weapons program even though all agreed that Iraq was not trying to acquire yellowcake uranium from Niger. The senior NIC officials failed to do their duty in 2002.
Not the case today. The NIC stepped up and refused to budge despite repeated efforts by Dick Cheney and his minions to gut the effort. This happened thanks to the convergence of several factors. First, most of the Bush neocon ideologues are gone–Wolfowitz, Feith, Bolton, Wurmser, Libby, etc. Second, the Democrats control the House and Senate Intelligence committee and were receiving reports from analysts about the bullying by Cheney and others who were trying to sandbag the conclusions. Third, senior intelligence officers learned the lesson of 2002 and returned to the tradition of telling the President the truth, no matter how unpopular or unpalatable. And finally, this Administration’s days are numbered and the analysts can read the tea leaves. They know there is no percentage in pandering to power by serving up half-truths and wishful thinking.
But let’s not celebrate too strongly. It is clear from the Bush presser today that he is not backing off an inch from his delusion about the Iranians and his commitment to do something about them. Fortunately, the release of this NIE hems him in a bit and limits his options for using military force. It also reminds the American people that serious threats can be resolved with diplomacy rather than rely on testosterone laden military fantasies. If political pressure can keep Iran from building nukes then that is the course we should pursue above all others. Eat that one Mr. Podhoretz.
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John Bolton was stark raving mad on CNN’s Wolf Blitzer. Today Bush said Iran “was, is and will continue to be dangerous”. Come on these warmongering fucks mean business, Iraq is the example. Over a million dead, who knows how many injured, 4 million refugees, the NIE will not stand in the way of their regime change agenda.
People should be out on the streets tonight in protest of the Bush administrations continued refusal to face the facts. Instead many Amricans have their pedals to the metal driving to the mall to buy shit from China for their children to open up on Christmas morning. While Iraq has been reduced to rubble and 4 million Iraqi people have been run out of their homes. How ludicrous, how criminal.
Iran never was, is not now and almost certainly never will be dangerous - unless, of course, they are attacked, in which case they have every earthly right to be as dangerous to their attackers as they can manage to be.
I agree that this administration is full of a bunch of lunatics and I’ve spent countless hours writing letters to my elected officials. Unfortunately my elected officials were not elected by me, so I’m sure my letters ended up in file 13. However, I’m always curious when other people criticize Americans for their complacency, so my question is… besides posting your thoughts on the web, what have you done to stop the lunacy?
The neocons such as Bolton were so spot on on their predictions of the duration and cost of the Iraq fiasco. Seems to me they don’t have a leg to stand on.
To illustrate my point: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tom-tomorrow/what-they-said_b_46907.html
Leave it to you to get it wrong. It actually
illustrates the opposite point.
We’ll get Tom Tomorrow over here to spell it out for you, you poor kid.
http://www.crooksandliars.com/2007/12/04/right-claims-iran-
nie-a-cia-plot-against-bush/
Crooks and liars has quite a few clips about the NIE
http://www.crooksandliars.com/2007/12/04/hardball-biden-repeats-his-threat-to-bush-invade-iran-and-youll-be-impeached/
Joe Biden, D-Delaware, appears to be very fed up with George Bush, and rightly so and probably even MORE so than any other Senator. I can’t say I blame Joe Biden one bit.
Oh, by the way. Nick Berg’s father happens to be from Delaware, as well as some other “interesting” native Delawareans who oppose Bush.
Oh, I just LOVE it! I really DO!
Handsome guy, that Joe Biden. I like his accent. It sounds just like mine.
Nick Berg’s dad is amazing. What an incredible man.
Tomorrow morning the Diane Rehm show focused on the NIE report
Call in with your questions or statements
http://wamu.org/programs/dr/07/12/05.php#18230
“… the then universal belief that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction…”
I just love that line!
As I am sure you recall, Larry, the unclassified National Intelligence Estimate—released many months prior to the launch of the attack on Iraq—said nothing of the sort. Instead, the consensus conclusions included that claim that Iraq did not have a robust and sophisticated program for the production of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons, that it had no long-range missile delivery system, that its efforts to develop more effective short and long range missiles was ineffective, and that it posed no near-term term threat to the United States and our European allies, and only a limited threat to its neighbors. Even the discussion regarding ’suitcase’ nuclear delivery systems and any possible alliance with rogue states or stateless terrorist organization was largely dismissive.
I wish I could find myself more polite in discussing both Podhoretz and Bolton, but I rather find myself unable to resist the temptation to classify both as they can plainly and reasonably be seen: complete whack-jobs! Then, and now. (At least they are consistent in that respect.) For either to make the claims they do is ridiculous on its face.
I thought that Ambassador Bolton came essentially unhinged during the War Room interview. Strangely, I imagine that being on CNN’s poorly named War Room broadcast is actually the closest that Bolton has every come to war. And, that’s apparently closer than most of his associates and co-conspirators have ever come…
Michael,
An excellent point worthy of a broader dissection. Their false claim about the 2002 NIE is just one more lie in their vaudeville act. Thanks for pointing that out.
LJ
I have been stating through the day that this still assumes a “weapons” program. yet, do we have proof of such a program, or will this lend agreement to a fraud on top of fraud on top of fraud?
I’ve only ever heard from Iran that they want nuclear power. I haven’t seen substantial evidence to the contrary.
(and yet my goddamn shelf is full of Cheney threating us..ain’t that sick)
over
I am confounded by the short piece written by Robert Baer in Time:
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1690696,00.html
“…there is also no doubt that the Bush White House was behind this NIE. While the 16 intelligence agencies that make up the “intelligence community” contribute to each National Intelligence Estimate, you can bet that an explosive, 180-degree turn on Iran like this one was greenlighted by the President.”
Huh? All right: that passage simply makes my head hurt. And, frankly, makes no sense.
I always understood analysis to be more about intuition and insight, than about briefing from a catalog of ‘facts.’ Generally, the trade craft to be more art than science, and the process reasonably isolated from political influence. The claim by Baer that the Oval Office directed the outcome of the latest unclassified National Intelligence Estimate difficult to fathom from the point of view of both strategic planning and tactical execution. Actual delivery seemed to catch this collection of idiots off guard, struggling for words and looking for believable phrases.
Such counter-counter-counter conduct seems too clever by half, and—if directed by a White House political operation—troubling, even if only a marginally accurate observation.
Now, Robert Baer is not Raul Gerecht, from whom I might have expected such apparent nonsense. Possibly, I have spent too little time observing disinformation campaigns…
Can you shed some light on this?
Ray McGovern on the NIE
http://www.antiwar.com/mcgovern/?articleid=12001
Aipac on the NIE report
http://www.aipac.org/
Micheal Rubin on the NIE
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MDk2ODAyYmEwZDA3N2ZjNjViYzEwNThhZjhhMmZhM
Dk=
Micheal “faster please” Ledeen on the NIE
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NjljZGNiZTc0NzhmM2UyYmFlMWQ4NjkwYWI
5MzUxNTM=
Elbaradei on the NIE
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/98352EE3-B5D0-4209-8ADB-79E8A3B45A72.htm
Al Jazeera on NIE
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/8CB95556-C45B-44B5-8B2A-9FF1EDA496C1.htm
Here’s the Rubin piece, Kathleen. The link didn’t work:
The Iran NIE [Michael Rubin]
I’m at a conference overseas and just got a chance to look through the highlights in the International Herald Tribune. A couple quick thoughts:
* The NIE appears focused on any indigenous Iranian program only. After the Syria episode, what does import of nuclear weapon-relevant technology do to the timeline?
* If Iran was working on a nuclear weapons program until 2003, what does this say about U.S. policy in the late Clinton period and European engagement? Is it fair to say that while Iran spoke of dialogue of civilizations, it was working on a nuclear weapons program?
* Iran has staunchly denied it ever had such a program. Will it now detail it? Will the analysts who agreed with Iran come clean and explain how they got it wrong?
* What role does the intelligence community place on ideology within the Islamic Republic and its decision-making? Talking strictly of costs and benefits in Middle East decision-making always falls flats, since so many regional decisions do not maximize benefits. Indeed, while Tehran can be pragmatic (both for good and for bad), its actions seldom maximize benefits for Iran and its strategic position.
* Many critics of sanctions and democratization policy said simply that there was no time to implement such policies. Doesn’t this NIE provide more time for comprehensive sanctions and civil society-building and support to continue, certainly alongside diplomacy?
* If pressure works, doesn’t it make more sense to have a third round of sanctions (which Condoleezza Rice had said would be completed by the end of last month) than relief from pressure?
I’ve seen it posted elsewhere that the Ford administration gave them the initial green light while the Shah was around, since Iran even then knew they had limited oil. Is there any way it could be checked out, since Rummy and Cheney were both in that WH team?
Thanks in advance.
I love the left (AKA the dem cong).
Their intellectual dishonesty will never cease to entertain me.
This NIE, about Iran, came from the same bunch that was wildly wrong on Iraq - and totally missed 9/11.
But now, they’re the greatest.
Why?
Because this same bunch of government pencil-necks is now agreeing with the left.
What’s really ironic is that that many of the employees of the “intelligence” agencies are drinking the same kool aid as the foaming left.
Are you familiar with foaming, graywolf?
Who knows, foam surfing could become the hot new thing.
Well, if it isn’t one of the yokels Larry refers to at the top. Well, yokel, while I will not defend the left from the accusation of intellectual dishonesty, I’ll throw you in that mix because if you’re going to discuss intellectual dishonesty, then engage in it, you aren’t much better. And that makes you a hypocrite.
“This NIE” came from…
Was this the wildly wrong intel that said Saddam didn’t have WMD? Was this the same intel that was operated by now outed agent by traitors in the white house? Those folks said, NO WMD. Yet, the Steven Hadley connect with Gen. Nicholo Pollari was enough, que no?
Was this the same intel had already heard Marine Scott Ritter state clearly in Dec 1999 that Iraq was disarmed?
And then you make a classic leap of logic to, “NOW, they’re the greatest…because this same bunch…is now agreeing with the left.”
This doesn’t answer if they are correct, and it doesn’t answer how…Iran says it isn’t engaged in a weapons program, IAEA says they are not engaged in a weapons programs, and those of us who aren’t even in the intel service can see it is equally possible that Iran wants nuclear energy.
But if you’ve solidly concluded “IRAN=EVIL” then don’t think, just assume, always assume the worst. Always overamplify your enemy, the one you create by labelling them enemy.
Oh, and as an act of kindess, may I suggest you wipe away that blue stain on the side of your mouth..is that kool-aid?
Actually, the people who were wrong about Iraq, were the neo-cons (Wolfie and Perle in particular) the rightwingers (that’s you Greypup) the Republicans, and most especially, John Bolton, Douglas Feith (and his secret parallel “intel” operation) little Bushie, and above all, Secret President Cheney (Grand Intel Cherry Picker of the Universe!)
Now Greypup - you don’t even know who the personel are that comprises the NIE authors, other than McConnell (if you even know that)whom little Bushie, himself, appointed (with Secret President Cheney’s approval, of course.) You, Greypup, can’t even name one person, one author, one contributor, or one analyst with regards to the NIE. You have any basis to doubt the NIE, or the authors, you don’t have a single shred of evidence to contradict the NIE, and if you think you’re more of an expert on National Security than the authors of the NIE, and the Intel Community in general, than you are one deluded rightwingnut extremeist.
And if you have so much contempt for us, why do you come here?
But again, that 2002 NIE was not a broadly supported NIE. It was stovepiped and we know that the allegations of Iraq’s WMDs were vetted in fall ‘02 and that they had been determined to have been not supported by the facts….but yet were still recited by the Prez….and then again in the State of the Union a few months later…..but remember, that report was significantly classified and only select parts were de-classified to create the impression that Iraq was a threat. And really graywolf, since when have you ever cared about sufficient justification for military actions? I would imagine that you were not agonizing about the lack of intelligence supporting the claims that Iraq had WMDs back in ‘02.
Bolton going ballistic on Fox News in regard to the NIE
http://thinkprogress.org/2007/12/04/bolton-nie-iran/
It’s amazing how the very people who were/are publicly
wrong all along about Iraq, are the ones now saying they are right about Iran, and that’s Bolton to a tee.
It’s also Orwell to a tee.
thanks for checking Larry I apologize. It is so disturbing that facts just do not matter to this group. They will make up their own.
Ledeen on the NIE
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NjljZGNiZTc0NzhmM2UyYmFlMWQ4NjkwYWI5MzUxNTM=
Again
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NjljZGNiZTc0NzhmM2UyYmFlMWQ4NjkwYWI5MzUxNTM=
Interesting
http://www.amconmag.com/2007/2007_12_03/cover.html
Elbaradei has been telling us for four years that there was no hard evidence to back up the claims being repeated by the “cakewalk” zealots about Iran. Now the NIE backs that up.
Would Iran be more willing to consider giving up their uranium enrichment (legal under the Iaea) if the U.S. and Israel would sign an agreement stating that they would not pre-emptively strike Iran. Would Iran be more willing to consider giving up their uranium enrichment capabilities if Israel would sign the Non Proliferation Treaty?
“Would Iran be more willing to consider giving up their uranium enrichment (legal under the Iaea) if…”
Why should they give up a perfectly legal program that will 1) reduce domestic use of oil, allowing them to export more of it, 2) possibly put them in a position to export energy once the oil supplies begin to run out?
According to all the evidence Iran is not doing anything in its nuclear program that it is not entitled to do. It makes perfectly good sense for Iran to be developing nuclear power technology. In fact, some of the very characters who are screaming the loudest now were, a few decades ago, encouraging Iran to develop nuclear power.
Why on earth should Iran give up a program that threatens no one, and makes perfect sense for it to be pursuing?
Larry,
isn’t the ‘world of bush-think’ just wunnerful? lights on, shades up, and nobody home in their upstairs. ‘real’ air-heads to the maxx.
Now we await what form GWBush-style presidential spite will take.
Excellent post.
You’re the best on subjects like this.
Thanks.
Predicted a couple of years ago:
http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2006/11/27/061127fa_fact?printable=true
month before the November elections, Vice-President Dick Cheney was sitting in on a national-security discussion at the Executive Office Building. The talk took a political turn: what if the Democrats won both the Senate and the House? How would that affect policy toward Iran, which is believed to be on the verge of becoming a nuclear power? At that point, according to someone familiar with the discussion, Cheney began reminiscing about his job as a lineman, in the early nineteen-sixties, for a power company in Wyoming. Copper wire was expensive, and the linemen were instructed to return all unused pieces three feet or longer. No one wanted to deal with the paperwork that resulted, Cheney said, so he and his colleagues found a solution: putting “shorteners” on the wire—that is, cutting it into short pieces and tossing the leftovers at the end of the workday. If the Democrats won on November 7th, the Vice-President said, that victory would not stop the Administration from pursuing a military option with Iran. The White House would put “shorteners” on any legislative restrictions, Cheney said, and thus stop Congress from getting in its way….
more
Well, the igit in chief may have broken Sadr’s ceasefire:
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22866754-5005961,00.html
Ooops, There it is.
Call me at troll; call me a shithead if you want…but before you do ask your self are you so sure that all is well in the land of NOD? Because of an NIE???
So I am listening to Bush say he does not want Iran to have the knowledege of how to build a Nuke.
sorry cats out of the bag.
I google “How to build a nuclear weapon”…and got
2,130,000 hits…OK? I know! ….it is a very difficult thing to do…so is climbing Mt. Denali. But it has been done and lives have been lost in the effort.
I’m sure that world wide espionage is always “full speed ahead” regarding WMD and the next time Cheney sends a letter, it won’t be from Italy.
So when the new engine designs for the space shuttle get hacked from a NASA computer, at a loss of billions of dollars in R&D (you name what ever high tech designs you want) it is amazing that we assume joining the club can’t be done by a country with educated intelligent people such as Iran.
It blows my mind that people think an NIE, no matter how much it exposes the Bush dictatorships’ lies, will stop these end timers from doing exactly what they want.
Hell’s Bells!! They are going to kick this Iran can down the road to the next admin as well. I know our Intel folks deserve much in recognition and public support but if anyone disagrees with me then explain why they outed Valerie and god knows what else. Bottomline is they dont give a damn ’cause they are doing it anyway.
Sorry 60 votes don’t mean jack at the moment. Nor does an NIE. Especially because there were no disenting views…nothing occurs in a vacumn as the Michael Rubin artical implies.
Nasa hack:
http://www.computerworld.com/industrytopics/defense/story/0,10801,73305,00.html
Chinese hack: W-88
http://books.google.com/books?id=ok8uPPI11DAC&pg=PA60&lpg=PA60&dq=stolen+mark+88+weapon&source=web&ots=2DwduY8ZjW&sig=25BIqSN6-nhr4_KWoZXJY3hi3W0
Actually, there are dissenting views, but not dissenting conclusions.
And no one here is saying all is well in the land of nod.
Also, 60 votes in the Senate, and two thirds of the house is the only thing that will effect any change, and it will mean a darn lot.
OT:
http://nuralcubicle.blogspot.com/2007/12/prisoner-flow-to-us-prison-camps-in.html#comments
Yeah, well it sucks, doesn’t it. But it’s off topic. However, you should start your own blog on the subject.
[...] CIA analyst Larry Johnson: This blog was one of the first to report that the NIE was being delayed for political reasons. [...]
Thanks could not remember where I had read that.
Absolutely excellent, Larry. Damn you’re good.
from 1watt’s link…lyrics anyone?
We don’t need your planes and tanks. We don’t need your policy and your interference. We don’t want your democracy and fake freedom. Get out of our land.”
I’m wondering is somebody in the military didn’t help this get leaked to head off a potentially suicidal venture into Iran.
Joe Biden in response to Bush’s comment that he just learned last week that Iran had stopped it’s program in 2003:
“That’s not believable”. “I refuse to believe that”. “If that’s true, he has the most incompetent staff in modern American history and he’s one of the most incompetent presidents in modern American history”.
Friends, in January 2000, I had been living in Austin, Texas for nearly ten years. I remember going home to Delaware to my father’s funeral and telling my cousin, at the wake, that George Bush and the entire gang from Congress Avenue is incompetent! I bet now my cousin is looking back and thinking, “WOW, she was right on”.
Who can possibly believe little Bushie when he said yesterday the his hand picked NIE director told him several months ago that there was “new information” about Iran, but that little Bushie wasn’t told, and little Bushie didn’t consider it important enough, or interesting enough to ask the obvious question…what new information is that? This from the leader of the free world!!!! He might as well have said that the dog ate his homework, when he said that he only found out last week, just what that info was.
What’s even more incredible is that no one in the press busted him on it.
My question to that is what is in the redaction’s of said report!? It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall in said committee’s of congress trying to unredact this and figure out what the hell is really going on.
A wounded animal is twice a dangerous. I would not let my gaurd down until this President no longer has access to the football. While some might choose to rejoice in victory, it will be short lived.
Iran is a threat and not because GW says so, because as Kathleen pointed out, Valerie said so. Is Valerie Wilson incorrect? So please please someone on this site tell me why we won’t ,as Chis Matthews but it, we won’t wake up one morning and have GWS tell us he pulled the trigger anyway. Props to Larry but eating crow is not something GW does well as Valerie and Joe found out.
All this NIE proves is that a part of our broken government is working again. That is not enough.
Agree.
And thank you for referring to Mrs. Wilson as Valerie Wilson, because, that is, in so far as I know, her name, and most people, in so far as I know, prefer to be addressed, or referred to, by their name.
Mudkitty
In her book she said she preferred to be addressed as Valerie Wilson…I feel awkward using their first names not having met them.
Bush is out there babbling about Iran having two choices…come clean or else….What a hockey puck…
Now that I have calmed down from the last 48 hours of being shown how badly the emperor has no cloths, I am still stuck on someone’s of Joe Bidens experience saying what he said on hardball and driving in to work the person after person was saying they had no trust. I fear Bush will act like a NYC subway rat…
Lot’s of women prefer to have the same last name as their children. Is that so shocking?
I, myself, since I married late in life, and have no children, don’t have the same need, or desire.
I don’t know how you read what I typed as I might find it shocking. I am rather “old fashioned” on the ediquite thing…And no I am not shocked…
On the other “get real” comment…
1) She also talked about the next threat to U.S. interests in the troubled Middle East: Iran.The threat is real, said Plame, who had been working for the CIA on nuclear proliferation issues before her career ended after she was “outed.” Vieira asked her, “Given what you know, are we headed toward war in Iran?”
“There’s no doubt Iran has intent and it’s malevolent,” Plame said of that country’s nuclear aspirations, a topic of intense scrutiny by the Bush White House and debate around the world.
Vieira then asked if the administration is capable of twisting intelligence again to rush into war in Iran.
“I do,” said Plame.
Ihave very strongly held views just most folks on this site do…and I am the first to admit I don’t know Jackshit. but I DO know how to survive in this echo chamber that is uniquely American . Honestly how can you be so sure of yourself?
Do you read anywhere that “but is overstated”
in her comments? Do you see why I want clarification?
Transcript from Countdown October 23:
You have dealt with intelligence. You’ve dealt with Iran. What should we be looking at professionally? What are the questions that we be asking that we haven’t been asked yet about this topic?
WILSON: There is no doubt that there is malevolent intent on behalf
of Iran, that they are seeking nuclear weapons. There’s no question about
that. But we are a great country and I believe that as a great country, we
can afford to speak to everyone, even our enemies. And the idea of not
using every single tool that we have available to us, primarily diplomacy,
and it is unfortunate.
And obviously our international credibility, moral authority has been severely eroded in the debacle in Iraq.
This remark of Bush’s is mystifying. Come clean about WHAT?! All the evidence so far would appear to indicate that Iran has been telling the truth.
What an Alice in Wonderland world we are living in!
Shirin; we left that world awhile ago and are now in Toon Town… did you not see that sign post up ahead?
Just sent both of these questions to the Diane Rehm show this morning they will be focused on the NIE this morning.
This morning the Diane Rehm show will be focused on the NIE.
This question is for Kenneth Pollack
On Oct 25 2005 the Jewish Telegraphic Agency reported that you said “I believe I am USGO1″ (United States Government official) in the six times delayed and upcoming Aipac espionage trial. Most of the classified intelligence that was allegedly passed from Larry Franklin to Rosen and Weismann had to do with IRAN. This investigation and the upcoming trial have basically taken place under the MSM ’s radar, another indication of the power of the Israeli Lobby. Most Americans are completely in the dark.
Will the newly appointed Attorney General Mukasey dismiss this upcoming trial? Will the American public ever find out about the Iranian classified intelligence that was “allegedly” passed to Israel?
Diane will you be doing any shows about this very serious investigation and trial?
JTA articlehttp://jta.org/cgi-bin/iowa/news/article/20050829ProminentMideastan.html
Or
Iaea’s director Elbaradei has been telling us for four years that there was no hard evidence to back up the claims being repeated by the “cakewalk” zealots about Iran. Now the NIE backs that up.
Would Iran be more willing to consider giving up their uranium enrichment (legal under the Iaea) if the U.S. and Israel would sign an agreement stating that they would not pre-emptively strike Iran. Would Iran be more willing to consider giving up their uranium enrichment capabilities if Israel would sign the Non Proliferation Treaty?
reply
Send or call in your questions drshow@wamu.org
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[...] NeoCons Go Ballistic on Iran NIE (by Larry Johnson at No Quarter) “How can you trust the intelligence community to get it right on Iran? They got Iraq wrong in 2002 and now this?” The “this” is the NIE on Iran and its search for nukes. That in a nutshell is one of the prevalent reactions of neocons and Bush true believers. But wait, there is more. John Bolton told Wolf Blitzer that the NIE was the handiwork of exiled State Department officials hell bent on undermining Bush and this country. And Bolton told Fox News that Congress should investigate those traitors. [...]
the devil is building a special wing in hell for Bolton, Bush, Cheney and the Zion, Theo, Oil Cons.
sure hope there is a hell for these warmongers who are responsible for a massive amount of death and destruction.
Nick Bergs dad
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/us/2006/06/08/snow.zarqa
wi.berg.reaction.affl
What gets me about all this is the other axis of evil North Korea made nukes and actually tested them yet there was no beat of the war drum on them. There is no proof Iran is making nukes, so why the beat of the war drum on them? That is the question and the answer isn’t nukes, it is something else.
does North Korea have oil or gas? Don’t think Israel has its sites set on North Korea
There was an article a few months back which suggested that perhaps N.K. was not very successful in building a weapon. The radiation released by their test wasn’t high enough for a fully functional nuke. Perhaps Kim Jr. pulled a fast one to get the results he wanted.
Not holding my breath for results from the US inspectors.
No oil or gas, and as a bonus PR o’ China next door. The CCF already joined into a war in Korea once, no reason to think they wouldn’t do it again. Lots of blood for no real gain at this point if we started something. Defense of the ROK is another matter, of course.
Lost in the discussion is nuc acquisition, since we still don’t have access to AQ Khan who is the known proliferator that our “ally” has been protecting, and who is responsible for the DPRK program among others. That would be worth a topic on its own and I wonder how much Valerie Wilson found out about that part of the puzzle before the traitors outed her. I would expect it to be the principal threat scenario, and don’t think the NIE handled it.
Back on topic, the NIE is a repudiation that will force W to go it alone if he wants to shoot. The question is whether the military has learned of this. C&L observed that Fox hasn’t covered this very much at all, which tells me that AFRTS hasn’t either. It would be grounds in my view for rejecting the “fire away” order if the NIE was known in the forces, since the threat wouldn’t be proven.
cough cough oil, cough cough. Sorry, had a rough sore throat that suddenly kicked up there….sorry.
As a country, we appear near the edge on our ability to deal with reality. There are so many people that are paid to lie, some that volunteer, some that revere the liar so much they repeat it until it becomes a well known enough lie that it can be declared fact. We don’t have any mechanism for displaying facts. The instruments are there, but no one willing to simply print facts.
One must wonder from time to time if most americans simply can’t read or process information any longer. Not one of our news agencies is willing to simply put facts out without massive commentary by personality. Most of the blogs report the lie rather than facts that either support or conflict with the story. They don’t seem to care any longer.
Since denial is such a large part of life in the USA now, the crash is going to become really difficult for those of us that find our jaw’s on the floor when the bandini hits the ventilator. I wish you all success in your post apocalyptical planning. What has become clear to me, is that millions are going to perish because no “official” can talk about the problem they can’t fix. They ignore the questions. Do they too plan for any future?
What worried me before the invasion of Iraq was all of the old timers (older than me 55) who were really worried (Republicans, Democrats, Independents) about this crazed group of thugs in the White House. Jimmy Carter, Zbigniew Brezinski, General Zinni, General Clark, Madeline Albright, Robert Mcnamara, four of my uncles all retired engineers from Wright Patterson Air Force base, endless older WWII Vets that I talked with at the anti-invasion marches in Washington the fall of 2002 and in New York in Feb of 2003.
Besides hearing Scott Ritter, Elbaradei, retired CIA analyst and many more on the Diane Rehm show before the invasion, hearing the older timers saying the same thing sure had my ears on alert.
Plenty of warning if you were listening
LARRY, anyone,
two things that should be front and center of any conversation about NIE’s is:
1) how many times did cheney, perle (as head of def. advisory board), gingrich (member of same iirc), and scooter libby visit the cia? for the purpose of beating the snot out of the analysts? i want numbers and dates in the hands of msm reporters.
how often in the past had a vice president visited langley to do the same? (answer: none.)
2) also, TEAM B, c. 1975-76, needs to be discussed robustly. also, note well, that the same personnel, wolfowitz, et al, were involved then.
…
…
it has been delightful to see the coverage of this. yesterday’s ny times front page, above the fold, 3 column, photo (hadley defending the indefensible), graphics, size of the font on the headlines was simply incredible.
this story has major league traction on the internet.
couldn’t happen to a nicer crew.
EXACTLY on Team B! They should never have been allowed to get away with doing this again.
Also, people need to make it clear to Israel that if they attack Iran or provoke any kind of violent response from them or any Iranian allies, WE WILL NOT HELP!!
Read this comment from this ungrateful, arrogant piece of #@$!!
Last evening, I attended a forum with former General, Labor Party Knesset Member, and former Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh. In response to a question from the floor about the Iran NIE, Sneh said that the “report was a lie.” He asked “why would someone leak this now?”
http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/
Great points! Who else visited?
Amy Goodman
What did Bush know and when did he know it
http://www.democracynow.org/
Juan Cole on the NIE
http://www.juancole.com/2007/12/usg-open-source-center-surveys-iranian.html#comments
a change of pace. instead of bludgeoning your koolaid friends with another article, tell ‘em when a neocon from cheney on down peddles their bs to it reminds you of this song.
eurythmics. annie lennox. “would i lie to you?” about 5 minutes. first min. is setting it up, then 4 mins. of awesome music. (h/t libby spencer. whose blog escapes me.)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vl1UvbGkQAs
What troubles me most about all of this is our inability to keep the real issues in mind. That we may be less likely to go to war with Iran, and thus probably with Islam, is very good. But a lot of the discussion seems to miss the most important reason why. The most important reason is that we might then have the time and resources to do what actually needs to be done.
In Iraq there is ruin, and Cholera:
http://www.chris-floyd.com/Articles/Articles/Eating_Iraq%3A_Corruption_Rules_and_Cholera_Rises_While_Insurgents_Surf_the_Surge/
In Uganda, the ebola virus has evolved, to a form which may be contagious by casual contact, with a case fatality rate of fifty percent:
http://www.paradoxuganda.blogspot.com/
http://www.recombinomics.com/whats_new.html
In the west, the capitalism we have allowed to run amok may be on the verge of complete collapse:
http://www.calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/
And everywhere, the work necessary to save the planet as we have known it from climate disaster is beyond huge, and the time short, if not past:
http://www.pastpeak.com/archives/2007/12/do_the_math_1.htm
We are not, apparently, as a society, capable of looking any great distance ahead and understanding what we see. The real threats are very great, and immanent. But they are not to be found in bearded men from the Middle East.
If we do not begin to act, intelligently, and soon, then legacy of seven destructive and wasted years of Bush, the neocons, and their enablers in both political parties - and the lack of moral courage in our society as a whole - will likely be economic and social collapse, pandemic disease, and a climate disaster that can no longer be prevented.
Off topic perhaps, but of general concern, from Recombinomics:
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/12050703/Ebola_HCW_5.html
“Five Uganda Health Care Workers Die from Ebola
Recombinomics Commentary
December 5, 2007
A medical doctor and four health workers, who treated the first Ebola patients in Bundibugyo, have died of the disease. Dr. Jonah Kule, the medical superintendent of Kikyo Health Centre, succumbed on Tuesday night. He had been quarantined at Mulago Hospital.
Senior clinical officer Joshua Kule, senior nursing officer Rose Bulimpikya, matron Peluce Tabiita and another nurse not yet identified died yesterday in Bundibugyo Hospital, according to senior clinical officer James Agaba.
The above comments indicate two additional health care workers have died, raising the total to five fatalities in teh past 24 hours. These numbers suggest the number of infected patients may be markedly higher than reported to date.
The hospitalization and deaths of health care workers has reduced the number of hospitalized patients significantly, and many with symptoms will avoid hospitals. Although some PPE’s are just arriving, most of the health care workers would have gloves, and would be aware of potential transmission of the infectious agent. Therefore, their fatal infections signal efficient transmission.
Media reports describe multiple suspect fatalities at more distant locations, and confirmation of cases will be reduced because the Ebola virus is a new species and PCR primers are still under development. Positives will be dependent on antibody tests, which may have a high specificity, but a low sensitivity. Similarly, infected patients that avoid hospitals will also reduce the number of confirmed cases.
More information on suspect Ebola fatalities at distant locations would be useful.”
Five dead health care workers in 24 hours. Not good.
sy hersh on NIE
http://www.crooksandliars.com/2007/12/05/sy-hersh-we-pay-bush-to-know-these-things-what-did-he-know-when/
Even if iran did have nuclear weapons ( grewolf) as you still choose believe. i’ll give that to you. maybe they do. so what? we have 20,000 of them we can aim at Iran at a moments notice. If they were suicidal enough to send one crude bomb, we or Israel could turn that place in to a glass plate that wouldn’t be inhabitable for 10,000 years and they know it. cost vs benefit. i know what they would pick.
look….we held off the soviet union who had tens of thousands of nuclear weapons pointed at us for years but now (for some reason) we are pissing our pants at a third world country “maybe, almost , could be” having a deterrent to us invading them as well.
When did we become so spineless?
and to Norman Podhoretz:
get out there and fight iran yourself. take an m-16 and climb into the trenches. Good luck and godspeed you wacko!!!!
Exactly Fraser!!
Maybe it’s just an excuse to do something to Iran..anything..
What was the name of that Texan riding the Nuke down to ground zero?
Ya THINK?!
That was his name? It was an old black and white Slim Pickins played the part…he was riding it like a bull.
Dr. Strangelove?
yes - and Peter Sellers did a GREAT Cheney
Sy Hersh rips into the truth..NIE
This is a great clip
Sy “It’s still not over, there’s always Israel”. They can take action unilaterally, the Israeli’s are upset
about this report.
http://www.crooksandliars.com/2007/12/05/sy-hersh-we-pay-bush-to-know-these-things-what-did-he-know-when/
Thanks for the links…
Israel has over 400 nukes according to a conservative estimate. They might be the neocons’ best option for attacking Iran even without good access by air. (Air defense systems between Israel and Iran will not stay quiet. Too much of a ‘heads-up’ to Iran?)
And the diplomatic fallout will be deemed irrelevant by the wingnuts. I mean, it’s WWIII!!! Who cares if we’re on the ‘wrong’ side according to foreigners???
The reaction to this NIE report should be important for revealing continued wingnut control of American media.
Israel can’t use nukes because they live within range of the fallout (if the wind is blowing the right direction).Nukes are for the most part a truly useless weapon when used in your own neighborhood UNLESS you want to end it all and take everyone with you by employing the “Samson option”.
the Nukes ONLY purpose is to make a particular country a less desirable target for invasion. Israel has them , thus no country in their right mind will attempt to take Israel off the map regardless of their chest beating for local consumption rhetoric.
“War with Iran is no less likely now than it was last week, last month, or last year. Indeed, it is conceivable that the chances of just such a provocation occurring sometime before we get a new president have increased, precisely because the War Party has been dealt such a devastating setback on the nuclear front. Desperation makes people do very odd things, and in this case I would reverse one of Victor Davis Hanson and Michael Rubin’s arguments and apply it to those seemingly intent on taking us into yet another disastrous war, including the president.”
http://antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=12005
December 5, 2007
No Iran Attack?
Don’t Be So Sure…
Never underestimate the neocons
Didn’t little Bushie say himself that’s “nothing’s changed?”
Someone should be taking some action against these traitors.
This is from the Antiwar.com link above.
According to Rubin, it wasn’t the alarmists like himself who got it wrong: the Iranians are inveterate liars and can’t be trusted under any circumstances. What’s difficult for the neocons at this point is to transfer the liar-liar-pants-on-fire epithet to our own government. Are they now saying we can’t trust the CIA, the DIA, and the rest any more than we trust the Iranian mullahs? Has the American intelligence community been infiltrated by the Revolutionary Guards? Good luck with that one, guys…
More blow from Bolton
http://www.crooksandliars.com/
I still think that the Valerie Plame was the real target of the whole Plamegate affair.
I watched her reaction on a show when someone asked her about Iran’s nuclear capabilities. She knew too much and I get the impression she was not the type of person to fix the intelligence around what the administration wanted.
They wanted her out and Joe was a good excuse.
Valerie Wilson!!!!
Perhaps Larry or someone would inquire of Valerie Wilson on Keith Obermans’ interview with her why she empathically stated Iran is seeking to acquire Nukes? I realize she may not have been the “loop” after 2003 but I can’t imagine someone with her background would not follow this subject very closely.
Mrs. Wilson stated the threat exists, but is overstated. Get real.
And you would presumme to know what is “real” ?
what a pity for mudkitty.
It’s an expression…get real…
Yea, I know all about expressions. They are an emotional escape valve and a poor way to communicate, without the use of verbal queues. It’s difficult at times to take someone’s meaning other than literally.
Exception is if your that “24″ dude…he needs no attempt at translation.
Let me add this from Arthur Silber. He is someone who we should all be reading on front page of the NY Times or be listening to nightly on CNN.
Several of the reactions collected by Glenn Reynolds advance the notion that, assuming the NIE is accurate, this demonstrates that the invasion and occupation of Iraq did in fact lead to the elimination of a gravely serious threat, namely, the threat that an Iran with nuclear weapons would have represented. If the invasion and occupation of Iraq prevented such a development, that means the Iraq catastrophe was justified.
It is difficult to imagine a more heinously bankrupt moral argument.
http://powerofnarrative.blogspot.com/2007/12/played-for-fools-yet-again-about-that.html
No, Glenn’s right. You just don’t want to accept the fact that American power and the use of it in 2003 may have contributed to a cautionary impulse on the part of the Iranian Leadership.
Live by the NIE, die by the NIE, my Democratic friends. This thing is a two-edged sword.
But further, it is not the Manna from Heaven that Excitable Larry claims it to be. I can understand why Bush, Cheney, and even Rice didn’t want this out. Our position against Iran has collapsed internationally. This wasn’t the “Bushhitler Lied!” moment that liberals crave; it had to do with diplomacy.
With the release of the NIE summary, there is absolutely nothing to stop Ahmadhi-Nejad from going to the Ayatollahs in triumph and pressing for a resumption of weaponization. That’s what Larry in his clueless triumphalism isn’t telling you.
Suppose this NIE is correct. Suppose there was a program that was stopped in 2003. You’ll notice, if you read the conclusions really, really close, especially the dispositive language, that the Agencies involved don’t want to declare that the Iranians have necessarily NOT started the program back up.
They say, “medium certainty”.
In other words, they don’t know.
That’s not enough for any President to go to war on, so Bush threw in the towel.
But were I Ahmadhi-Nejad, I would be ramping my program back up right now. The pressure is off. There will be no attack.
Yet the Israelis, with a far better and more embedded network of spies in Iran (and a much more accomplished intelligence service, the Mossad, to call on than Larry’s hapless CIA), are insistent that the Iranians are on a path to enrichment, then weaponization.
In fact, and this is what Larry will not tell you; if the Israelis are right, and I will trust Mossad and IDF Aman Intelligence over CIA any day of the week, I can almost guarantee an underground Iranian atomic test inside of three years.
I suspect Democrats will come to regret the day they jumped for joy at this report, and live to once again curse the incompetence of the Central Intelligence Agency. I fear that CIA has been outwitted again; this time by the Persians, past masters at espionage and deception since the time of Cyrus the Great.
The CIA has failed this country again and again and again. Tim Weiner’s devastating volume, “Legacy of Ashes”, puts paid to the fantasy that that agency exercises even minimal competence in the pursuit of its craft. I grant that this is the work product of CIA as well as 15 other Agencies, but I suspect that CIA contributed the lion’s share of the work product, here (as it has, historically). I see no reason to believe that we are safer today because of the work product that Agency. Indeed, it is Iran which now has the green light to pursue the atomic bomb.
Shut the fuck up with your lies and rationalizations!
I don’t doubt that Israel will do something to someone to have us swirl the drain with them.
We’ve been warned.
Middle East News
Israel warns against easing stand against Iran (Roundup)
Dec 5, 2007, 14:17 GMT
Tel Aviv - Israeli officials Wednesday warned world leaders against letting down their guard and easing their policies toward Iran’s nuclear programme, after a new US intelligence report stated Tehran had halted its atomic weapons programme.
‘It is clear to all that Iran is continuing its efforts to acquire nuclear technology,’ Israeli Vice Premier and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni said in a statement sent to Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa Wednesday.
http://news.monstersandcritics.com/middleeast/news/article_1378815.php/Israel_warns_against_easing_stand_against_Iran__Roundup_
I question the notion that the reason Iran 86ed its nuke program in ‘03 was because of shock and awe. Why do you think Iran would not defend its sovereignty any less fiercely than we in the US would? Do they not have a right to defend themselves? They do. You have a basic underestimation of the nationalism of all people except Americans. You are a typical American exceptionalist. You can’t imagine that the Iranians might feel as determined to defend their country, regardless of the sense of their leader, if it is under attack. Remember after 9/11, how the country rallied around Bush? He was at 90% approval rate at some point, if memory serves. So do you not think that if Bush invades Iraq, unsolicited, that Iranians may become somewhat more nationalistic, regardless of how they feel about Ahmadinejad? Remember, they had moderate leadership in Khatami when Bush included Iran in the Axis of Evil, and it was not long after that, that the more reactionary Ahmadinejad was elected. And again remember, Iran offered to co-operate with us in order to stabilize the middle East as we were invading Iraq. They saw an opportunity to make a strong regional alliance which might have given the US more credibility in the Middle East and would have signalled to the “Arab street” that the Americans weren’t just out to bum-rush an A-rab, but that they really were interested in regional stability. But we rebuffed them. Flat. How would you like it if you were provocatively placed in the Axis of Evil? Regardless of whether Iranians liked their leadership, when the most powerful country in the world puts a target on your back, you’re gonna rally around your leader, just as we did after those horrible events on 9/11/01.
So don’t suggest that it was the shock and awe that supposedly cowed the Iranians into packing up their nuclear program. It was probably a desire to show good faith to us in an attempt to make a regional partnership which could have shifted the socio-political boundaries in the Middle East and could have ushered in an age of co-operation and collaboration. Instead, what do we have? A more reactionary Iranian leader and a conflagration in the Middle East that is an ongoing disaster and will only get worse as long as we continue to take a Take No Prisoners approach to diplomacy.
section9…i wouldn’t rely on the mossad for anything; they gave us “can’t miss” intel on Iraq having wmds, nookular weapons, etc….well, we never found them did we????…sooo, their intel is either “hapless” like the cia, or, “false” because the mossad’s agenda is to back up anything claimed by the government that funds them….as for me, I don’t trust anything israel says…they have lied about too many things over the years…uss liberty attack, no nuclear weapons being made at Dimona, are just two lies of the many that come to mind….in short, you trust israelis so much over americans…grab a one way ticket to Tel Aviv, volunteer for the IDF, and enjoy fighting for the country you are obviously wanting to show loyalty to. Best Wishes!
The Mossad’s rich and lengthy record of embarrassing failures is well known to most Iraelis, but it seems that the news still hasn’t reached Americans.
Did a Hecha’ of a Job in Lebanon . . .
Oh, yeah! And that is only one of the more recent spectacular failures out of an often farcical history.
Is Israel turning out to be a Potemkin village?
“American power and the use of it in 2003 may have contributed to a cautionary impulse on the part of the Iranian Leadership.”
A much more likely cause of Iran’s stopping its (alleged) nuclear weapons program in 2003 - assuming it actually had one - is the removal of Iraq as a threat to Iran.
“With the release of the NIE summary, there is absolutely nothing to stop Ahmadhi-Nejad from going to the Ayatollahs in triumph and pressing for a resumption of weaponization.”
Oh yes - it’s aaaaaaallllll about the bogeyman du jour, Ahmadi-Najad! the thing is, though, that Ahmadi-Najad plays no part in making policy or decisions to do with military or foreign policy matters. In fact, big, bad, scary Ahmadi-Najad has very little power to do much of anything beyond exercising his big mouth, and saying things that MEMRI can mistranslate or maliciously translate into something much more threatening and horrible, or just plain stupid, than it really is, and which he couldn’t really do anything about even if he HAD really said it.
“But were I Ahmadhi-Nejad, I would be ramping my program back up right now.”
You should learn at least the fundamentals of the Iranian political system before coming here and shooting your mouth off. Ahmadi-Najad NEVER HAD a program to do with weapons of any kind, let alone nuclear ones. The President of Iran does not get involved in weapons or other military programs.
The President of Iran does not run the country.
Now, instead of coming here and wasting everyone’s time, go hit the books and learn something real.
Oh yeah - and Section9, you might want to also double check your timeline before you make a complete fool of yourself in public. You see, Ahmadi-Najad was elected in 2005.
Got any books you’d recommend?
Let me get back to you on that. I have TONS of books on Iraq and Palestine/Israel I could recommend, and a few good ones on Islam, but not so much on Iran.
Thanks. Always willing to learn from those I might not always understand.
I should have asked you before which aspect of Iran you are interested in reading about - politics? History? Society? Culture? Religion?
By the way, Iran has a wonderful film industry that produces a lot of really terrific films that make universal statements within the context of the current Iranian social and political condition. Creativity in art often reaches its greatest heights when oppressive conditions demand that messages be indirect.
Recently I watched a film called “Children of Heaven”. Strongly recommended. It centers on the lives of two children, a brother and a sister, and is so rich and so multilayered that I cannot do it justice with words. Another one that I strongly recommend is Laila. It explores in a devastating way love, marriage, and the influence of family in Iranian life, and if you think it does not have universal ramifications, then you are in a serious state of denial. If those two films do not engage you emotionally and intellectually, and if you cannot see something universally human in them, then I am not sure there is hope for you.
And then there is “The Colour of Paradise”. Visually stunningly beautiful, emotionally gripping, and intellectually engaging. And the characters in this film are clearly not Muslims, by the way, but one of Iran’s religious minorities. It is not addressed at all in the film, but from the visuals you can see it. They are, I am guessing, Zoroastrians. I saw this one in a theatre, and because of the lush visuals it would not be the same at home unless you have one hell of a home theater setup, but see it anyway. Even on a small screen it will engage and impress you.
Netflix has all three of these films, and if you don’t have Netflix, it is worth signing up for the free trial so you can experience Iranian film making and see what Iranian film makers are capable of. Just don’t forget to terminate the contract before they charge your credit card.
End of film review.
Your statement above is interesting since it implies agreement with the NIE finding that there’s no weapons program now. Given that, it is hard to take your trashing of the authors and the estimate. If it’s right who cares about your parsing.
If NIE’s not right, as you imply in the next quote, “the Israelis are right,” then what’s your first sentence about where you assume “American power” stopped the program.
Which is it?
Here it is - plain and simple. If the report has so little credibility, why sit on it? Why not let it lose? You and the critics protest too much.
Your arguments switch from one paragraph to another. Your only rhetorical device is fear for the worst. Powell and Bush ran that one into the ground.
The fantasies of death and destruction need to remain just that for now.
Really Section 9?
the mossad’s whole agenda ( which is the right of any countries Intel agency) is to trick the other country into killing off the mossad’s enemies and for them it’s so far so good. we like a dumbass older brother are dicking up the ME according to plan .Iraq maybe Iran, Syria, Lebanon etc….
ask yourself this section 9,who is barking the loudest that WE ( the USA) should basically dismantle the middle east? It’s the Netanyahu’s of the world , or the “Israel firsters” which include right wing Christian fundaMENTAList hell bent on the “end of days”. Both make me shudder to think of the pain they are trying to self inflict on all of us Jew, Muslim and Gentile alike. They my friend are just plain dangerous to any possible peace or stability because they aren’t stable beings…..paranoid delusional people in high places should scare the shit out of any sane person.
glad your so comfy with their agenda
I dare you to read the books called :
“By way of deception” or the second book “Beyond deception” written by Victor ostrovsky ( a former Mossad case officer) then come back and repeat that silly claim of how good and just the mossad are.
Reynolds claims it was sheer strategic genius that the Regime and its familiars spent a trillion dollars to create a failed state in order to mitigate the Iran nuclear threat?
section9 says:
et the Israelis, with a far better and more embedded network of spies in Iran (and a much more accomplished intelligence service, the Mossad, to call on than Larry’s hapless CIA), are insistent that the Iranians are on a path to enrichment, then weaponization.
In fact, and this is what Larry will not tell you; if the Israelis are right, and I will trust Mossad and IDF Aman Intelligence over CIA any day of the week, I can almost guarantee an underground Iranian atomic test inside of three years.
Just like they got Lebanon right?
With all those cluster bombs left behind
Well, go back and look at whose analysis about Lebanon and Israel’s August 2006 invasion was correct. Me. Israel’s so-called top flight intelligence services are a joke. Remember, these are the guys who killed a waiter in Norway. Israel’s racist fear mongering is pathetic and America should not be held hostage to it.
LJ - would you say in this instance, or in general?
from sic semper tyrannis, col. pat lang weigh in:
(Administrative note: a little primer on graduations of Army protocols when speaking on the radio. When we say, “I say again,” it is the way we emphasize important things; you say something twice, back to back. When you say something twice, but say, “I repeat” that is used when calling in artillery. Without further ado, I present….)
“Please Mr. President, as an American Jew, I beg you, bomb Iran.”
I say again: “Please Mr. President, as an American Jew, I beg you, bomb Iran.”
Because this quote deserves maximum distribution, I repeat: “Please Mr. President, as an American Jew, I beg you, bomb Iran.”
Podhoretz, godfather of the neocons. Foreign policy adviser to Rudi Giuliani’s presidential campaign. Commentary. June 2007.
Col. Pat Lang quoted in wethornet’s post
This statement is ridiculous. It’s a political statement and a very naive one. The “tail” is NOT wagging the “dog.” Israeli omnipotence is the fiction used by Col. Lang and others who agree to ignore the huge money interests that are making a boatload on the Iraq war. At the same time, this serious misstatement helps effect the biggest wealth transfer in history from working people to the mega rich. That type of argument is both absurd and a diversion.
The Iraq war, any war, is a time of great opportunity financially. The war interests will use any group, domestic or foreign, and form any alliance (the End Times crew with neocons) to perpetuate the money machine that is Iraq.
“Show me the money!” as the guy said and you’ll see who the dog is … and nobody wags that dogs tail. Lets get real here.
Hey Larry, why don’t you tell your readers how many spies the CIA has on the ground in Iran versus how may spies the Mossad has on the ground, then come back and tell us how great the White Elephant at Langley is. How about how many fluent Farsi speakers CIA has in Tehran? Or at Natanz? Or at Arak?
Do I hear crickets?
Boy, instead of actually addressing the issue, Larry, you accuse the Israelis of “racist fear mongering”. Instead of addressing how the Israelis were actually capable of executing a smashing takedown of the Syrian atomic installation, due to their penetration of an opponent’s battlespace?
At least the Israelis had the Winograd Commission, which rightly criticized their own battleplan, and led to firings within the IDF and the resignation of Dan Halutz, the Air Staff Commander who authored the hideously inept IAF air campaign in the South. It should be noted that IDF General Staff proposed a much more ambitious and far reaching ground campaign, but that Ehud Olmert turned it down. Peretz and Halutz were forced to go, even though Hezboallah pulled back from the frontier.
People actually get fired in Israel. No one has yet to be relieved at CIA for 9/11. The incompetence continues. I suspect that we will find that this was a political document, I suspect, with every passing day. Unfortunately, that won’t happen until after the Iranians test.
Former Spook says the same at his blog.
http://formerspook.blogspot.com/2007/12/politics-of-intelligence.html
Now that you’re done with the Bush bashing for the day, ask yourself why the Izzies are still so alarmed, and why the people at the IAEA think the Americans are being “too generous”. Ahmadhi-Nejad has been given a huge pass, and Democrats don’t care. Bringing out the “Israelis are racist” card was low rent.
The CIA has screwed up too many times for us to believe them. If I’m Mr. Dinner Jacket, I”m home free with a Get Out of Jail Free Card!
Damn. I’m going to start cursing again.
tell your readers how many spies the CIA has on the ground in Iran versus how may spies the Mossad has on the ground, then come back and tell us how great the White Elephant at Langley is. How about how many fluent Farsi speakers CIA has in Tehran? Or at Natanz? Or at Arak?
Do I hear crickets?
No, fucker! I’m glad you brought this up.
Enough with trusting what Israel has to say.
Enough with their biased translations from MEMRI.
I had a chance to talk to Josef Bodansky a few years back (before 9-11) to express my feelings on the US relying on the Israeli’s rather than native speakers.
We see the results and I hope it isn’t too late to save ourselves from those self-serving bastards.
smashing takedown of the Syrian atomic installation
LOL! Do you tell the truth about anything?
I posted this a long time ago.
http://rawstory.com//news/2007/Intelligence_officials_say_Israel_received_flawed_0924.html
Now I’ll just sit back and wait for the false flag attack that clowns like you will blame on the usual suspects.
I’m sure Netanyahu will pop up again to talk about how it will be good for Israel.
‘Bringing out the “Israelis are racist” card was low rent.’
It may be “low rent” but it’s true.
I am laughing my ass off at the mewls of humiliation coming from those actors who wanted to start a war with Iran. They’re having a collective Homer Simpson Moment.
Are there any other comparitive tracks for related issues / statements by Bush in the vien?
So everything we know(read Bush spin) is wrong?
“Our intelligence community assesses that, with continued foreign assistance, Iran could develop an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the United States and all of Europe before 2015,” Bush said last month in a speech at the National Defense University in Washington.
A recent publication by the Congressional Research Service, which provides nonpartisan reports on political issues to members of Congress, however, suggests that Bush is overstating what U.S. officials know.
The CRS report, dated Nov. 8, said there’s no international consensus on the range, number or effectiveness of Iran’s ballistic missiles. It underscored the paucity of real, or at least unclassified, intelligence on Iran’s missile program.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/117/story/22340.html
Invoke the 25th?
Good one!
Invoke the 25th?
Wouldn’t that give him an insanity defense at the war crimes trials?
Really, it’s amusing to watch these mouth-breathers becoming so indignant when their delusional beliefs are not reported by the government; that is tempered, however, when one remembers that these are still Important and Powerful People. Like much over the last 7 years, it would really be hilarious if it wasn’t true.
I think it’s known as ‘the conscious impotence of rage’.
Vice President Cheney gave an interesting interview to Politico (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1207/7227_…) today and said this about the NIE, the Bush Administration has released concerning Iran’s nuclear ambitions…
Cheney said the assessment was released because… “…there was a general belief that we all shared that it was important to put it out — that it was not likely to stay classified for long, anyway,”
Whooaa, there…!
What did I just hear big Dick say? “…that it was not likely to stay classified for long, anyway.”
Why is that you might ask…? Was someone not only going to resign from the Administration, but… was that individual[s] willing to risk even “jail time” by making classified material contained in the NIE public?
Very interesting “pickle” you’ve provided for lunch, Mr. Vice President.
Olde soldier sends…
The same artical as above…..
The VP admitting to it?
So you though it might leak? “Everything leaks,” he said with a chuckle.
And another thing…I just remembered that I read that Douglas Feith told Pat Lang that it was too bad he was fluent in Farsi.
This traitor didn’t want us to know if we were being lied to by likes of the MEK or other proxy fanatic groups that they have infiltrated and control.
I’m furious at the vile of the defenders of the crazies who cost us so much in blood and treasure.
Simple and clear..Douglas Feith should be locked up, at the very least impeached (John Dean has written about the impeachment of lower level officials so that they can not roll rack into a future or present (Wolfowitz) administration.
Lock Feith up or Impeach this compulsive liar and psychopathic warmonger!
Refocusing the Impeachment Movement on Administration Officials Below the President and Vice-President:
Why Not Have A Realistic Debate, with Charges that Could Actually Result in Convictions?
By JOHN W. DEAN
http://writ.news.findlaw.com/dean/20061215.html
I haven’t waded through every comment here so I am not sure if this has been mentioned. If it has, my apologies. Hollywood Fred Thompson is now suggesting that (please please why did Charlie Rose not ask him how this might be possible?) Iran may have leaked the NIE in order to assuage the American left. It’s at http://www.thinkprogress.org. Yeah Fred, so, can I get some acting lessons? I guess you’ve learnt how to sell some serious ish!!! So, to recap, those who issued the NIE are now working for Iran. Yeah. So…..and another thing, the Pittsburgh Pirates are winning the World Series in ‘08, the Bills are winning the Super Bowl this year, and Britney Spears will be granted a Macarthur Genius scholarship for her services to humanity. That’s all from Hollywood Fred…
Actually, Fred is right. Larry and Scott Ritter snatched the NIE by posing as contract janitors at CIA Hqs and gave it to the A-man, and then the Revolutionary Guard leaked it to the left wing media. I have incontrovertable proof of this. OK, now that I’ve got that out, I can put my tinfoil hat back on so that those damn Venusian bitches can’t fry my brain with their iPod rayguns. By the way, did you know that they’re not only sexual deviants, but Communists, as well?
Damn, I’m glad I read the responding posts to my post. I’m going to have to listen more carefully to Fred Thompson upon learning he’s such a deft reader of the human being. =)
Gee whiz . . those damn crafty Eye Rani!!! Snuck it right out under their noses!!! I’ll bet all those Merry-go-rounds in Terraran should be checked out for centerfudging yellow cake for their nookiekleer weapons. Now that Rootie Tootie imploded, McCain McFlipped Out, Huckleberry freed criminals and Mitty is in a cult, Dead Fred wins by default . . . so he can’t be wrong!!!
Amen, Cee, amen.
Imho, Arthur’s powerofnarrative is one of the most imporatant, and least known websites out there. So, please indulge me. This is a little lengthy, but I have made it as concise as I can.
I had seen a couple of Arthur’s essays referred to on other websites over the years. Recently, I started going there directly, and wading thru the archives.
OMG! What a cornucopia! (sp?)
Bullet points:
* This is the most “dense” website I have ever been on in 8 years of full time research scouring the internet daily. PhD students would feast here; it is a goldmine.
* My major caveat about this guy is a caution about how to “digest” him. 1) I would advise heavy duty scanning on the first pass thru an essay. 2) If you choose to read him you need to devote a chunk of time to doing so.
* In my “Walter Mitty world” I have the funds to set up my own small think tank. One thing I would do is book called “Proverbs From Arthur.” (insert a subtitle saying it’s about American politics, and the structural forces in play.) He has some of the pithiest, most pungent insights I have ever seen in 50 years on the planet.
* Like our national treasure Robert Parry at ConsortiumNews, essays written years ago are highly valuable today. Essays written today will be valuable and extremely worthwhile reading 5-10 years from now. To me, that is a mark of greatness.
* He skewers Rethugs and Dims with equal glee. This man is what i call an “equal opportunity skunk” who, “turns sacred cows into hamburgers.”
* Due to this he gets no love from the lefty blogs. You could say he gives, “No Quarter,” to the Congressional Democrats and past Democratic Presidents.
* A major thesis: Americans are TRIBAL in their politics, and can’t and won’t hold their team accountable. Most Americans are willfully obtuse about “their” team’s failings. This does America no good.
* He talks about the “stories” we tell ourselves. Our national myths. The myths about our “team.” The destructiveness of the same.
* He talks about what I call the “deep politics.” (google Peter Dale Scott, one of the most important commentators you will ever read.) The boys “behind the curtain” get what they want on foreign policy. Party is almost immaterial. Bill Clinton talked about his most important professor at Georgretown was Carroll Quigley. In Quigley’s “Tragedy & Hope: A History of the World in Our Time” on pages 1247-1248 both parties are controlled. Has been this way since at least WW1; as i say, before there was W. there was Woodrow. For me, until W. came along, Wilson is arguably the worst President ever in American history. Y’all must simply get a copy of Thomas Fleming’s “Illusion of Victory. America in World War I.”
* This man is a prophet.
* He is in desperate need of funds and may be forced to close up shop soon; like within the next few days, or week or two. Even the smallest amounts would be very beneficial and keep the wolves at bay temporarily.
* I would consider it an honor if you donated a preliminary amount to him simply because I, Wethornet, said it was vital. My fear is that in an ocean of Stygian darkness, one of the brightest, albeit, least known candles of light is about to be extinguished. And after wading thru a chunk of essays, I predict, most would donate more money.
* I have been slow to do this myself, but we need to start financially contributing to websites we love to create the new media paradigm we would love to see. My friend, the late, great Steve Gilliard, used to bitterly lament that people who read blogs won’t put their wallets where their eyeballs are, and yet expect an alternate media to magically appear. Newsflash: bloggers have bills. Mortgage/rent, they eat, every day, health insurance, etc. Who knew?
Disclosure: other than reading his blog, I have no relationship with Arthur; he doesn’t know me from Adam.
I get my jollies by putting a spotlight on certain things, and helping people who are “doing the Lord’s work, toiling in the vineyards.”
Thank y’all for reading this.
http://counterterrorismblog.org/2007/12/victor_comras_larry_johnson_de.php
December 4, 2007
Victor Comras & Larry Johnson Debate the New NIE &
Iran
By Andrew Cochran
ps. one more thing about powerofnarrative. chris floyd, one of the best out there really hearts this guy. i get the feeling if silber were to write a book, floyd would write the foreward.
floyd writes his own blog, and is deservedly well known. formerly was empire burlesque. writes for a moscow paper. one of these americans who is too hot to handle for the amer. lamestream m$m.
here are 2 paragraphs from floyd’s post today.
http://www.chris-floyd.com
Right on Floyd. So many worthy people…Larry, Chris, Arthur and others.
The American public are reading the same people who were loud and wrong. They need to pay too.
section9, until today i had never heard of you. upblog, you wrote, at 16:05, Former Spook says the same at his blog.
http://formerspook.blogspot.com/2007/12/politics-of-intelligence.html
i clicked on said link and this is what i found that you wrote in the comments section of said blog:
I have known and respected Larry’s work for years. I have known Ray McGovern for years and I am proud to call him a friend. If you look at their track record since they’ve gone public, I think any unbiased observer would say that Johnson and McGovern have been prescient at times, “on target,” and have a damn good “batting average.”
It is a sign of our dysfunctional times that such men, and others, felt compelled to form V.I.P.S., Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity.
Thanks for the research wethornet..
Good job bro’
“As far as I’m concerned, this gives Ahmadhi-Nejad a green light to proceed to enrichment and weaponization.”
I say again (or repeat, or both, or whatever):
Ahmadi-Najad (NOT Ahmadhi) has no say over matters involving military, weapons, or wars.
And I know I have repeated this ad nauseum already day after day, but the best predictor of future behaviour is past behaviour. Iran has no history of aggression. Iran has never invaded or bombed or attacked another country except Iraq, and that was clearly in self-defense.
.
Ahhhh Shirin. There you go again. Trying in interject FACTS in the discussion.
Jeez Louise.
Heard on the Tweety Show that cheney is all in favor of the NIE as released!
He was at CIA every day cracking nuts to implicate Iran. He knew every syllable of that NIE for more than a year.
Is this cheney’s move to preempt any idea bu$hler or anyone else in crime syndicate may have of throwing him under the bus?
WTF does this mean?
Surely there will be less derision of IAEA as being in essence a panel of pushovers, if not outright sympathizers with Iran. The agency seems not to have done bad; and, by the way, IAEA has no plans to back off.
Ya know, if Iran really wanted to f*ck with w. and deadeye dick they would do the following…
release the information about the “october surprise.” the iranians should know, because, um, like, they were there.
we are what scott peck, who is best known for his “the road less travelled,” as being “people of the lie.”
the consequences reverberate to this day. the rethugs are strong on national security. my a*s! the motherf*ckers committed TREASON in 1980 wrt our hostages.
and rudy-a-man-in-search-of-a-balcony-and-just-waiting-to-grow-a-small-mustache-giuliani:
the meme that dims are weak on nat’l security drives me f*cking bonkers.
TREASONOUS RETHUGS.
1. prescott bush. hitler’s chief enabler in america. shut down 10 1/2 months AFTER, I REPEAT, AFTER, pearl f*cking harbor. no wonder ghwb enlisted in the navy, rather than hide out at yale for a while….to save the family name.
2. nixon sabotages ‘68 peace talks. peace/possibility thereof = dem victory. ergo, if want to win commit treason. lbj, with wiretaps in hand, calls him 4 before the election and asks did he do it? nixon denies. hangs up phone. laughs uproariously. true story.
3. october surprise 1980. more treason. robert parry over at consortiumnews has a recent essay with all the juicy details about w. and wm. casey. as well as dims who later covered it up. the sure way to know you’re f*cked is to learn: “lee hamiliton’s on the job boys.”
4. iran contra. bring in drugs to the country. this per cia inspector general hitz’s report that came out in 98.
5. gulf war one. put those babies back in the incubator. thank you for your testimony the daughter of the kuwaiti ambassador to the us, ur, i mean, the heroic nurse.
6. gulf war two. the many and manifold lies.
7. valerie plame. treason, treason, treason.
some of you may be noticing a pattern here about rethugs and treason.
also the press is complicit. and the dims are so f*cking lame….they could nail the rethugs for a generation or two on this stuff by the telling the damn truth. instead, they constantly let themselves get bitch slapped by these treasonous scum. what a f*cking sweetheart deal for the rethugs: they got to lie with impunity, and the dems won’t tell the truth.
may god have mercy on their treasonous souls, their complicit souls.
sorry, meant to do this first. must. be. careful. when. posting. and. tired. and. rip. sh*t. furious.
short version: Ya know, if Iran really wanted to f*ck with w. and deadeye dick AND stop any potential war, they would do the following…
release the information about the “october surprise.” the iranians should know, because, um, like, they were there. like w/ casey in madrid in the summer. like w/ ghwb and c. boyden gray, etc., in mid october in the suburbs, note not in the city, in the suburbs, of paris.
release the information and watch the mother of all media sh*tstorms ensue.
please jesus. please.
Bring back the October Surprise!
Just ask Christopher Hitchens.
I know this will sound hopelessly naive, but isn’t this GOOD news? Wether you are a neo con or a realist or a nothing, isn’t it in general POSITIVE that our best guess is we are safer than we thought we were yesterday?
Is to rational people
Yossi Melman, veteran defense writer for the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, said that if the U.S. view of Iran’s nuclear status is correct, it actually reduces the threat to Israel and the likelihood of independent military action.
“If Iran is not heading for a nuclear weapon then you don’t need a military option,” he said, adding that for Israeli officials a strike was never a very likely choice.
“Israel’s ability to carry out a military operation in Iran is limited,” he said. “It’s possible but limited.”
Such a mission would be far more complex that the 1981 Iraq raid, experts say.
It would require heavy precision-guided bombs that can slice into underground bunkers, manned aircraft to bombard multiple targets and possibly commandos on the ground to make sure weapons materials are destroyed.
The neocons are doing this
Melman said Israel’s next step could be to redouble its own intelligence efforts in an attempt to prove its case, but that might antagonize the U.S. agencies.
“If Israel didn’t have a smoking gun before, why should it find one now?” he said. “If they had the evidence they would have given it to the Americans and influenced their report.”
__
Associated Press writer Steve Weizman has been reporting from the Middle East since 1985.
Not sure what this means, but it must mean something:
Denmark — Population: 5,468,120: Area: 43,094 sq km
Israel — Population: 5,700,000* — Area: 20,770 sq km**
San Francisco Bay Area (7 counties) — Population: 7,200,000 — Area: 4,160 sq km
Iran - Population: 65,397,521 — Area: 1,648,000 sq km
*excluding Arab citizens and the territories
**excluding the Occupied Territories, I think
Cee- well ther ewas also no al queda in the early 80’s. so an attack like they did on iraq is even less likely now.
Kathleen, there is a general discrepancy as to how many have died in Iraq as a result of the invasion and subsequent civil war.
But I won’t split hairs. A great number of people have died unnecessarily to satisfy the lust for oil.
It is no surprise that Bush camp blitzkreig have continued the policy of misinformation even though they have been sprung. There’s not too much time to go, besides the Democrats seem to want this to happen. Because, by all accounts, they’ve given Bush the green light & the rest is drivell.
Here’s an interesting thought If Japan had not surrendered when she did, how many more nuclear bombs would the US have dropped until they put the excercise down to futility. Would you destroy the World in order to get the last man?
And what do you think of the very popular view by a leading Israeli analyst Obadiah Shoher? He argues (here, for example, http://www. samsonblinded.org/blog/america-arranges-a-peace-deal-with-iran.htm ) that the Bush Administration made a deal with Iran: nuclear program in exchange for curtailing the Iranian support for Iraqi terrorists. His story seems plausible, isn’t it?
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