“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” – John Maynard Keynes

Bush said the new estimate “doesn’t do anything to change my opinion about the danger Iran poses to the world — quite the contrary.” CNN, 12/04/07

We tapped people who knew it was so and they fed the narrative as Bushco. wanted, it probably got shot down by analysts because it no doubt contained enough forgery and patent BS in it to stand out as a ringer’s work.

It’s not like Bush’s people ever change Modus Operandi. They’re still stopping people from trying to count things and claiming they’ve got the votes when the facts on the ground don’t support that assertion…

Maybe they can fly a charter Enron jet to Iran, full of GOP Congressional staffers, and demand the IAEA stop any talks with Iran…

But Larry, you’d expect both John Bolton and Podhoretz to be outraged. And of course, I mentioned the Israelis, who have an intelligence capability within Iran that the Two Car Funeral crowd at CIA could only dream of.

But let’s face it, when the British, the British, publicly trash your report, your crown jewels, publicly, and do so in a manner that must have had the approval of Gordon Brown, then they must have read the NIE with some amusement. Money quote from the Telegraph:

A senior British official delivered a withering assessment of US intelligence-gathering abilities in the Middle East and revealed that British spies shared the concerns of Israeli defence chiefs that Iran was still pursuing nuclear weapons.

Now, understand that like Israel and France, Britain actually has an intelligence service worthy of respect, MI-6. I mean, the Joe Wilson scam would have never happened there. When the whole John Profumo/Christine Keeler thing blew up, there was never a thought about dragging MI-5 or MI-6 agents names through the Old Bailey-they simply went to John Profumo and told him that his career in Whitehall was over.

More outrage over the NIE hijinks from our friends in the Anglosphere:

The source said British analysts believed that Iranian nuclear staff, knowing their phones were tapped, deliberately gave misinformation. “We are sceptical. We want to know what the basis of it is, where did it come from? Was it on the basis of the defector? Was it on the basis of the intercept material? They say things on the phone because they know we are up on the phones. They say black is white. They will say anything to throw us off.

The article goes on to say that midlevel CIA officials aren’t all lining up behind the report either, so there appears to be some Trouble In Paradise.

Understand that George Bush actually had a videoconference with Gordon Brown and briefed him about this report prior to its release.

Methinks the Brits looked at their own evidence and didn’t like what they saw. Neither did the Israelis.

That should tell people here something, but I don’t think anyone here will care.

The CIA repeatedly tried to warn the Bush administration about al Qaeda. But their warnings went unheeded. Or did you miss the August 6, 2001 Presidential Daily Brief titled “Bin Laden Determined to Strike in the US”?

It was the Bush administration that insisted that Iraq’s nonexistent WMD posed an immediate threat to the US, necessitating an unjustified invasion and occupation. Despite the fact that the CIA didn’t support that conclusion. And it was Bush who diverted valuable resources away from targeting al Qaeda.

It’s the Bush administration that betrayed a CIA asset[s] in charge of tracking WMD. It’s the Bush administration that has repeatedly leaked classified intelligence whenever it deems it politically expedient.

It’s the Bush administration that tried to squash the NIE on Iran. Because they’d rather start another unnecessary war over nonexistent WMD than admit their policies are reckless, dangerous and based on lies.

Mr Murder: I’m allergic to acronyms being a non-governmental type…is there a dictionary for these?very interesting post. Thanks

IN, OPIA, NNSA, AAFO,AAMA,OHR,OCIO,OPMA,OAS, OPPBE,DoE-CIO and DoE-PAM,PA&E

Intelligence Office (Dep’t of Energy)
The Office of Intelligence (IN) provides the Secretary, his staff and other policymakers within the Department timely, technical intelligence analyses on all aspects of foreign nuclear weapons, nuclear materials and energy issues worldwide.

Policy & International Affairs
The Office of Policy and International Affairs’ role is to deliver unbiased advice to the Department of Energy’s leadership on existing and prospective energy-related policies, based on integrated and well-founded data and analysis.

The Office of Policy and International Affairs has primary responsibility for the Department of Energy’s international energy activities including international emergency management, national security, and international cooperation in science and technology.

“Associate Administrator for Facilities and Operations
The Associate Administrator for Facilities and Operations provides program organizations with science and production facilities ready and available to perform NNSA’s core missions.

Facilities and Operations is responsible for establishing and directing, through the field elements, an overarching field operations framework that includes five major functions:

support for operations, resource management, human capital, enterprise management, and contractor performance evaluation;
advocacy, policy development, management oversight, and resource management for those infrastructure and facilities mutually agreed upon with the programs to be the responsibility of F&O;
advocacy, policy development, and management oversight of environmental, safety, and health programs;
project and construction management;
and safeguards and security

National Nuclear Security Administration
The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has the following mission:
To enhance United States national security through the military application of nuclear energy.
To maintain and enhance the safety, reliability, and performance of the United States nuclear weapons stockpile, including the ability to design, produce, and test, in order to meet national security requirements.To provide the United States Navy with safe, militarily effective nuclear propulsion plants and to ensure the safe and reliable operation of those plants.
To promote international nuclear safety and nonproliferation.
To reduce global danger from weapons of mass destruction.”

The Associate Administrator for Management and Administration provides timely, cost-effective, and efficient administrative and financial support for NNSA headquarters staff.

Management and Administration customers include executives, managers, and employees across all units of the NNSA complex. Its core functions are the following:

Design and administer the corporate planning, programming, budgeting, and evaluation (PPBE) system
Provide NNSA corporate systems and policies to manage NNSA’s human resourcesDevelop and implement NNSA corporate information policy and requirements to ensure that NNSA staff have the necessary tools and practices to manage information in a cost-effective, efficient, and secure manner
Provide general administrative services and logistical support for NNSA headquarters operations
Develop and implement NNSA-wide procurement policies and procedures, provide advisory assistance to components on contracting matters, and monitor NNSA compliance with those policies and procedures

“Changes in Structure and Staffing – Management and Administration will comprise the following six offices: (1) Office of Human Resources; (2) Office of the Chief Information Officer; (3) Office of Procurement and Assistance Management; (4) Office of Administrative Services; (5) Office of Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Evaluation; and (6) Diversity Programs. M&A will consolidate administrative functions performed by both DP and NN, as well as manage several additional functions (such as personnel and procurement) required to maintain a semiautonomous agency. ”

The Budgetary items give you ways to follow the money and look at who they did contract work with.

Look for any conflicts there(former work arrangements, transfers to or from the private to public sector, etc.) and compare that with known knowns, assessment conclusions held at the time, note changes and look at what those changes were, who initiated the different take, and how that basis veered from or matched ongoing IC and industry views.

The restructure of the IC in particular detailed the DoE because it was given status under the NIC to weigh in matters concerning the final report of the NIE.

At the time it was a swing vote in the civilian sector of the NIC if I’m not mistaken. All put in place after the Bush coup, and made material for determining INTEL and voting on policy suggestions as of May 03, 2001.

You had essentially three legs of policy formulation and data interpretation.
The Joint Chiefs directed departments with varied Intelligence tasks.
Civilian Executive bodies tasked security domestically and abroad.
Executive Cabinet Seniors and Staff tasked alike.

All it takes is one of those NIC groups being co-opted to initiate a stovepipe. If pushback occurs you need to bring in more votes across the board.

DoE was being put in, Cheney’s ability to push through his view was key in the days before the actual war. You can see the design in the plans well before 9-11.

Now if the Energy Task Force notes could be examined alongside this shuffle of the NIC you’d get an idea of what was up.

You see the language was already being peaked(weapons of mass destruction) to set a stage that would justify pre-emptive acts, provided we could shape the narrative to an extent it would be agreed upon.

PAM-Procuremanet and Assistance Management, one of the big dogs for the DoE role in assessment. PA&E, Program Analysis & Evaluation was in essence another stovepipe function, one that could review intel; within department and switch funding if the item didn’t meet to expectations.

It was made to coordinate infrastructure to “develop(sic)national defense objectives” within the scope of the DoE’s role for evaluation regarding proliferation; “integrate resources”(so it could remove pushback and promote the yes persons); and work in “major systems acquisition”(a good way to intimidate would be prospective analysis) and “support recommendations” as a rubber stamp.

There’s too long a paper trail to lose here. It cannot be restricted for national security since it’s an ongoing item. Push the House and Senate Energy to review previous assessments, within Committee, as a review of ongoing security policy related to Energy and also way to review overall policy for proliferation concerns.

“Still, intelligence is in many ways an art, not an exact science. The complete reversal from the 2005 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear-weapons program to the latest NIE serves as its own caution in this regard. The information we receive from the intelligence community is but one piece of the puzzle in a rapidly changing world. It is not a substitute for policy, and the challenge for policy makers is to use good intelligence wisely to fashion good policy. ”

Harman and Hoekstra teamed up to write a WSJ op ed. Check it out.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-usiran9dec09,1,7573825.story?coll=la-headlines-world&ctrack=1&cset=true

This made me laugh and think of the guy who left comments here castigating the CIA and praising you know who.

The Rich Boys | Business Week

An ultra-secretive network rules independent oil trading. Its mentor: Marc Rich

……belong to the ultrasecretive informal network of traders who dominate global independent oil trading. They don’t necessarily act in concert with each other, but they often chase the same opportunities. They are the Rich Boys. All operate in the world of onetime fugitive billionaire Marc Rich, the most-wanted white-collar criminal in U.S. history until his controversial pardon on President Bill Clinton’s last day in office in 2001.

Rich came to prominence in the 1970s, when he worked at Phillips Bros. (later Phibro), then the biggest trader. With veteran partner Pincus “Pinky” Green, he pioneered “combat trading” — getting trading rights from countries in turmoil. Rich, called El Matador for his killer instinct, did the deals. Pinky, “The Admiral,” arranged shipping…….

Rich is notorious for trading with Iran during the hostage crisis, South Africa during apartheid, and Cuba and Libya during U.S. trade embargoes…….

……As Alaskan and North Sea oil production declines, new supplies increasingly come from some of the most corrupt or politically unstable places on earth, such as Equatorial Guinea and Sudan. These are the new frontiers where major U.S. oil companies fear to tread because of sanctions, embargoes, and antibribery and anti-terrorism laws. But it’s where these traders, many like characters out of the James Bond flick Goldfinger, make good money, especially when oil tops $60 a barrel.

……Trader Clyde Meltzer, one of Rich’s business partners in the 1970s who remains close to him, says: “Marc is the most upstanding guy you’ll ever meet. It’s untrue he ever did anything dishonest.”…….

Like Marc Rich + Co. holding, most of the Rich Boys have offices in the tiny Swiss canton of Zug, with its quaint stores, Gothic architecture, and low tax rates. These maverick middlemen typically don’t own or operate oil refineries or wells. Instead, they buy oil from producers, line up buyers to refine it, and charter tankers to ship it. Oil trading is often nebulous and opaque. Title to a tanker’s oil, for example, may change a dozen times before the ship reaches port.

Some of the Rich Boys, like Pollner and Chalmers, have never worked for Rich. They’ve merely done business with him or have connections to him through other traders. Typically, Rich has bankrolled or owned stakes in the traders’ companies, or sold them to close associates. Among the mightiest is commodities giant Glencore International, based in a suburb of Zug, which boasts annual turnover of $72 billion, according to its financial disclosures, making it one of the world’s largest private companies…….

Many of the Rich Boys’ tactics may be hyperaggressive, but they’re perfectly legal. One way they do business: exploiting opportunity in Eastern European or Third World countries in dire need of funding. Rich taught his disciples — called Lehrlings, German for apprentices — to lend cash-strapped companies money and get the right to buy their commodities, industry experts say. Last year, for example, Glencore loaned $40 million to Peru’s second-largest zinc miner, Volcan Compañia Minera. Volcan agreed to sell zinc and other minerals to Glencore from 2004 to 2010.

At times, some Rich boys apparently use front companies — opaque holding entities — to disguise deals……Based in tax havens with strong banking secrecy such as Panama, Liechtenstein, and Gibraltar, they come and go like flickering harbor lights once a deal is done…….

One reason the rich boys are so busy these days is because they thrive in a world of high oil prices and scarce reserves. Big U.S. oil companies are desperate for crude yet don’t want to dirty their hands getting it from global trouble spots. Says a former partner of Rich’s, who requested anonymity because he routinely trades with Big Oil: “Majors don’t want to touch the oil, yet they want to buy it. If you think Pablo Escobar [the Colombian drug king] was guilty, weren’t people who used cocaine, too?”…….

…..Oil majors are also under pressure to shun pariah states. For instance, there are tight limits on deals with war-torn Sudan because it backs terrorism and engages in genocide. But companies set up by the Rich Boys, including Trafigura and Glencore, are among those buying crude there, trade reports say. China is a big customer for the Rich Boys there and elsewhere……..