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How Could the Polls be so Wrong?

Damn. The media favored story line just blew up. The Obama romp over Hillary was wrong. It’s still early and Obama may eke out a statistical win but he lost. Why? Because the media made the story all about his commanding double-digit lead.  Senator Clinton’s staff can make the valid claim that they “came back”.  Media loves the underdog story, normally.I don’t know about you, but I am thoroughly pissed off at the lame, unprofessional conduct of the various networks–MSNBC in particular. They knew that the polls had at least 17% undecided. Rather than simply report that there were a significant number of undecided voters and any projections were not reliable, they danced around like crack addicts celebrating the demise of the Clintons.  Hillary is too wimpy.  Hillary is too stern.  Hillary is too manipulative.  Hillary is not manipulative enough.

Special offenders include Chris Matthews, Andrea Mitchell, and Howard Fineman.  They were so busy dancing on the Clinton grave that they did not have the decency to do some objective analysis.  Hell, they tried to deceive the American people. So much for the death of Hillary’s campaign.

For the sake of our democracy, can someone smack the crap out of the media? Jesus! (take that as a prayer and/or a curse).  Oh yeah, MSNBC, fuck you too.

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Comment by James | 2008-01-08 21:58:49

Preach it brother Johnson!

Comment by readerOfTeaLeaves | 2008-01-09 01:18:10

Amen and Hallelujiah!

 

Comment by Retired | 2008-01-09 17:39:43

Deacon Johnson,

I’m afraid that we are going to have to expel you from the Church of NBC if you are going to keep questioning our dogma. We believe in the Trinity of the Three O’s: Obama (Barry), Obama (Michelle) and Oprah. If you cannot support this faith, please go elsewhere. We are also very anti-Royalist (i.e., King Bill and his Evil Queen), like our Irish and American revolutionary ancestors.

You call our God an “empty suit.” Well, we would remind you that every suit is empty when it is getting dry cleaned. And every clock stops ticking when it’s getting cleaned, as well. The very essence of our faith is a burning hope for change, any change, and whether or not our Lord has ever delivered change (outside of buying coffee at Starbucks) is irrelevant to persons of our faith.

So get your act together and get with the faith, or you will not be flying in with our advance team to Tehran three days after His inauguration to prepare for our promised bilateral, no-conditions talks.

Comment by Larry Johnson | 2008-01-09 19:36:19

Funny as hell. I’m an unrepentant sinner.

 
 
 

Comment by Gloria | 2008-01-08 22:06:17

Add tonight to the suppression of Edwards and you can see that nothing has changed. Remember how a few months ago there was talk about how the media realized that this stuff was important and there might very well be an end to the “Gore-ing” of candidates?

Fat chance.

Comment by Cee | 2008-01-08 22:20:52

What suppression? Lack of media coverage?

Can anyone tell me if this is from the Onion?

I got it via email yesterday

Monday, January 7, 2008 9:29 AM

Article Font Size

Hillary Clinton is having so much trouble drawing large crowds of New Hampshire voters to her rallies that she’s been busing in supporters from out of state.

That’s what NBC correspondent Andrea Mitchell reported on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” on Monday.

Mitchell said she was surprised to find at a recent Hillary Clinton rally in New Hampshire many attendees who were from Long Island and Upstate New York.

NBC Washington bureau chief, Tim Russert, also appeared on the show and offered more confirming details.

Russert said he was attending a Clinton rally at Nashua High School this weekend and was tipped off by the school’s maintenance man to check out the license plates in the parking lot. Russert said he was stunned to find the school’s lot filled with cars bearing Massachusetts plates.

Word from New Hampshire is that Hillary is simply not drawing strong grass-roots supports and has to rely on union activists from outside New Hampshire to fill out the crowds at her events.

Following Obama’s win in the Iowa caucuses, he now holds a double-digit lead in several New Hampshire polls, and it’s becoming clear that Hillary can’t compete with Obama’s charismatic appeal when it comes to attracting crowds at campaign events.

Comment by Mr.Murder | 2008-01-08 22:55:44

Obasma actually did that in Iowa.

Classic deflection tactic, get word out your biggest opponent is doing what you do.

Not that I’m against busing in its classic political sense. Mitchell getting out a slander on Hillary re: busing is classic coded bigotry.

When will Mrs.Greenspan get the honor of Ron Paul duty, so he can harass her about Gold Standards and the Fed?

Comment by Cee | 2008-01-09 04:20:09

You know darn well that neither candidate bused in ineligible voters.
I thought to send it after Larry mentioned Andrea.
A storm woke me up so I’m listening to the pundits STILL tearing into Hillary.
She re-tooled her message.
She got the women sympathy vote.
She copied Obama ( I do agree with this)
Chris Matthews sitting with his arms folded tightly across his midsection. Heh.

Comment by Marjorie | 2008-01-09 10:20:24

Yeah, Cee, I noticed Chris Matthews sitting with his arm folded across his chest, too. What does that mean in “body language”? I’m not going to let any pro-Hillary talk into my personal space?

 

Comment by norris morris | 2008-01-09 22:58:37

Andrea Mitchell is a conservative who is married to Alan Greenspan who we can thank for contributing to our current financial mess. Federal reserve chairman.

BTW the only bussing was done in Iowa by Obama who had them coming in from Schools from ages 17 to 25. Technically he could get away with it and he did.

There were absolutely no improprieties by anyone but the Media yesterday.

Blame the people who corrupted the process. The Media. Not the candidates who are all superior to anything this shameful GOP has visited on our house.

 

Comment by norris morris | 2008-01-09 23:01:16

Andrea Mitchell is a rabid conservative who is married to uber conservative former Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan who aided and abetted Bush in destroying our economy.

She’s a joke of a “journalist”, and lied,lied.lied.

 
 

Comment by norris morris | 2008-01-09 23:03:08

Mr Murder,

thank you. what are we going to do about a run amok irresponsible media that is trying to derail our elections?

 
 

Comment by norris morris | 2008-01-09 22:25:44

Andrea Mitchell was a disgrace. Matthews should be drummed off the networks. There should be a concerted effort to rid our Democratic process of those who try to destroy our airwaves in front of our eyes. Matthews is beyond contempt, and bears no resemblance to a newsperson or whatever this creature calls himself. The whole gang on CNBC [even Keith Olbermann who was meek] went riding into this orgy of excess and cruelty that was so biased the truth had totally disappeared.

The network’s licenses of our airwaves demand that they adhere to certain minimum standards of decency and fair reporting. Hmmm.

The media made up their minds in advance that Obama was on a landslide, and trolls like Zogby just kept adding the numbers. There is no excuse for this sort of inaccuracy, and I would not be surprised if Ad Agencies don’t shriek as their client’s money is spent based on Neilson ratings and other marketing data. All subject to question.
Remember Al Gore and Fox polling data in 2000?

If I worked for Gen Electric I’d flip out at the network heads who sell their time based on this kind of phonied up bullshit data.

This disgusting sexist media showed its true colors towards women. Innuendo whenever it could be worked in was used to the fullest extent.

Taking a genuinely sad moment from Hillary Clinton and inferring that she pulled fake tears. UGH!

And the dysfunctional and poisonous Maureen Dowd who lives by the vitriol she can exude had the nerve to call Hillary..Girfriend.. in her NY Times rant today. Despicable.

Dowd’s hatred for Clinton is so pathological and out of control that she is unreliable in all ways to report objectively, or opine with any sense of truth or reality.

Dowd joins Kristol, Matthews, Mitchell, et al in the cesspool of journalism we see in our MSM.

Pathetically they couldn’t even deliver high school level journalism that at might have been properly researched. We should band together and start a concerted internet movement
to put a halt to this dangerous abuse of our Freedom Of The Press.

Yesterday every news media could have been Murdoch’s Fox.

 

Comment by norris morris | 2008-01-09 23:19:05

If there was any justice, Tim Russert would be off the air.

He has no busines running one of the shoddiest news groups ever seen on TV outside of Fox.

 
 
 

Comment by Anne | 2008-01-08 22:07:26

Too right Larry. I swing back and forth frequently about supporting Obama or Clinton, given the strengths and weaknesses of both. Maybe a lot of other Democrats do, too. The media bias (I think Mathews lost some gray matter during the drunk years.) is beyond reason.

Comment by norris morris | 2008-01-09 22:30:55

Matthews has lost any sense of decency he may have had in his sober days. This loud,obnoxious,rude bellicose bully is not practicing journalism and should be drummed off the air. Actually I believe Matthews has lost it. Mitchell looked like a gloating witch on a bad hair day, and the entire pack were a disgrace.

Russet is running a media whorehouse.

 
 

Comment by owl06 | 2008-01-08 22:08:52

the pollsters were on drugs! ;-)

 

Comment by ckrantz | 2008-01-08 22:10:08

 

Comment by Mike | 2008-01-08 22:18:35

Matthews is an idiot and competes with O’Reilly to see who can be the biggest overbearing jerk. I wonder how many votes were swung to Hillary because of Matthews gleeful bashing of her.

Comment by Kathleen | 2008-01-08 23:06:58

According to Rachel Maddow quite a few. But if votes were going to go to a candidate that Matthews has bashed and undermined the most. I believe that would be Edwards

Comment by norris morris | 2008-01-09 22:43:07

None of this guesswork game helps. People vote for many reasons if they are Indies, Dems,Repus.

There is no party loyalty, and Indies are known to be the most unreliable group of voters, many who don’t even show up. This time may be different, but we won’t know until it’s all over. Usually the younger voters don’t show, but this time may be different?

What’s important here is that we saw a democratic process of media coverage get totally trashed by a pack of vultures tearing their prey to shreds in an orgy of excess.

They serve no one and trash us all. News coverage is supposed to be objective and fair. Those are the rules, but the degredation of Fox’s poisons have seeped into the entire MSM.

It really is up to us to make an uproar at CNBC that the networks won’t forget.

 
 

Comment by Kathleen | 2008-01-09 09:23:28

If this is the influence that Matthews has had on women voters…then why would votes not go to Edwards?

Matthews has been nuts when it comes to Hillary but even more so when it comes to fair and balanced coverage of Edwards. I have had it with Matthews personal agenda. give us the facts Matthews the fucking facts.

when will we hear one mainstreamer or progressive media outlets challenge both Obama and Clinton on their stances on Iran? When

Obama has picked up Edwards no lobbyist theme (but Edwards is not taking Pac money) and Hillary is picking up Edwards personal stories theme.

Parrots

Comment by norris morris | 2008-01-09 22:51:34

Kathleen,

I know you’re for Edwards, but your inability to see why Hillary won is a bit one sided.

You have absolutely no reliable data that Matthews provided votes to Hillary that might have gone to Edwards. This is as bad as what the Media did. Assume. Flawed behavior and flawed information, and corrupted data.

Edwards has not found the support he thought his 4 years in Iowa would bring. He’s staying in this, so we shall see what happens.

The best voting and voter analysis is done at the Annenberg Foundation, and Bill Moyers has them on so watch for his PBS show and you’ll get rational sophisticated polling analysis that makes what we hear yeserday sound like a pack of hyenas let loose.

What is inportant is that we watched our MSM disintegrate into a wild wolf pack. Ugly and dangerous to us all no matter who we’re voting for.

 
 
 

Comment by Larry Johnson | 2008-01-08 22:21:35

Edwards is on right now making the valid point that less than 1% of the voters have had a chance to offer their view who should be the next President.

I fear, however, that the reality of money will intrude and keep Edwards from staying in. Who benefits more if Edwards stays in? Hillary or Obama?

Comment by Kathleen | 2008-01-08 23:02:26

 

Comment by readerOfTeaLeaves | 2008-01-09 01:24:33

Everyone except the Republicans.
The US public gets a better discussion, and the Dems can provide greater protection to one another.

The Republican oppo researchers want a single candidate to lambast. Why make their lives easy?

 

Comment by norris morris | 2008-01-09 23:37:52

This kind of guesswork hurts the entire elective process. We are looking at “fixed” polling data from the pollsters whose assumptions are often corrupt and/or inaccurate and who propel this junk numbers game to further their pockets.

The insane assumptions of “bumps”, and momentum all affect the psych of the voters, and the media feeds this guesswork and changes reality minute to minute.

In 2000, the Fox Network declared the election for Bush after all other networks called Gore the winner. Then the fun started in Florida and you see the results of the poll numbers guessing game. The fix was in.

Our media pundits are all out of control. Their disregard for the patient evaluation polling data requires was missing because of the short time lapse from Iowa, but also because the pollsters and media assumed [without any data] that Obama came in with a 35 lead from a “bounce”.

The entire system is corrupted when the media behaves like animals, and many pollsters [Zogby] are notoriously and often wrong. Polling is not an exact science, and certainly whatever credibility polling can have wasn’t seen in Iowa or New Hampshire.

God help us all.

 
 

Comment by bob h | 2008-01-08 22:26:31

I have been sickened by the anti-Hillary schadenfreude among many liberal bloggers, too (her reward for championing liberal values for 15 years). They’re all a bit deadpan tonight.

Comment by Kathleen | 2008-01-09 09:24:57

I am deadpan tonight. Very sad very discouraged that the two war with Iran candidates won.

 
 

Comment by jharp | 2008-01-08 22:42:04

I’m happy for you Larry.

Super Tuesday is sure going to be super. Just as it should.

 

Comment by S. Markom | 2008-01-08 22:43:45

Staged. Now I am convinced that the two last days “stunts” (the phony tears and the perfectly placed protestor) by Hillary were staged to draw the female vote which was stronger than in Iowa. Anyone who bought into that act by the iron lady is foolish.

One other issue that is troubling has nothing to do with Hillary. McCain drew more independents than Obama. So race may still be an issue in this country.

Comment by TeakWoodKite | 2008-01-08 23:32:37

McCain drew more independents than Obama.

Independents are republicans and democrats that for the last 20 years have been driven to the center. Give them room to decompress and that is a force to be reckoned with.

Comment by Nellie | 2008-01-09 07:38:06

NH Independents are the 44% of us, who do not want to be harrassed by the invading hordes, do not want the equivalent of 10-12 dead trees worth of campaign literature in our mail boxes, do not want 20-30 campign telephone calls each night, and do not want gaggles of stangers knocking at our door and trying in every which way for entry into our homes so they may “talk” with us, and then have to be almost literally thrown out.

It has absolutely NOTHING about how we vote, what we think, or how well informed we are. Truth is 99% of us make up our mind within a week or two of the primary – and then lie about it to pollsters so the out of staters are not camped on our door steps.

Is NH the only place left in the country where people value their privacy, and just want to live their lives as normally as possible during the Quadrennial invasion and occupation?

 
 

Comment by Cee | 2008-01-09 04:25:44

S, Markom,

I don’t agree with you regarding her tears.
I do agree with the rest.

Independents pulled McCain through before so I dismiss the issue of race.

Comment by S. Markom | 2008-01-09 07:06:39

Not according to Bill Schneider of CNN. He inferred this AM that one reason the polls were in stark contrast to the results was, as he put it, likely Obama voters said one thing and changed their minds when they went into the voting booth. And then said it might have had to do with race. NH may be very liberal but there are not many African Americans living there.

The tears and the protest were contrived and she should be applauded for it.

Comment by Nellie | 2008-01-10 07:20:50

There are several ethniticities in NH. I will mention places where they have a very STRONG presence.

A black man, deceased in 2004, was the one who introduced Bill Cinton to NH. His 6 daughters, one of whom I am very good friends with, continues his work in the State Legislature and on Martin Luther King.

Lantinos and blacks are strong in the small city of Derry NH, and well as in the Central East side of Manchester.

Vietnamese, Cambodians and blacks are in Manchester, Nashua, and Salem NH.

Serbians in Manchester and Franklin NH.

Indonesians and blacks are strong in the Rochester NH area.

I am white and was for 4 years Recreation coordinator for the NAACP.

The NO-NOTHINGS in the media are called that by NH locals for good reason. If you want to know about our state ask US, the people who live here, not the idiots who show up only every 4 years.

 
 
 

Comment by kenoshaMarge | 2008-01-09 07:41:09

The protesters were from a radio station doing some mindless stunt. Tearing up is what most human beings do at one time or another. Granted Hillary Haters try their best to pretend she is not a human being in spite of all evidence to the contrary. All those that are so worried about a moment when a tired and besieged woman teared up for a few seconds should go stand in the corner with lil Bill Kristol. Because you are delusional and insulting if you think that women are so stupid that they are that easily swayed. Evidently men are because so many of them are outraged either by the thought that she shed phony tears or that she is a weakling because she shed said phony tears. Either way, in their tiny little minds, she loses. Kinda irrational, don’t ya think?

Comment by S. Markom | 2008-01-09 10:11:04

Obviously her timley acts worked with you.

These inconsequential radio stunt men got a front rwo seat to Hillary’s town hall meeting. That is awfully thought to do and coincidental.

Frankly I have a very high regard for her political savvy and acting ability after what transpired two days ago. I did not find them to be dirty tricks, just brilliant political ploys to get teh votes she needed.

I find what her husband did in suing the race card (see Donna Brazile comments) deplorable.

Comment by Shirin | 2008-01-09 10:39:41

Whether it was a genuine moment, or a brilliant political ploy, it seems to have worked. I am hearing her show of emotion is what decided many of the women who voted for her.

More examples of superficial, emotional, irrational decision-making on the part of voters. Unbelievable – well, not really. Sadly, very believable.

 
 

Comment by Shirin | 2008-01-09 12:50:47

Actually, it appears that women voters in NH WERE that easily swayed. I understand that a lot of them decided to vote for her based on that tearful moment.

Frankly, though I have not watched or listened closely to that little scene, it looks genuine to me. And maybe it is the camera angle, but I have never seen her look as soft or as pretty as she did then. I know acting very well, and believe me it would be extremely difficult even for a very well trained and experienced actor to pull that off and make it look really genuine. I will watch it more carefully one of these days and see if I change my impression, but I doubt it. Something like that would never influence me to vote for someone, but it increases my respect for her as a human being.

 
 

Comment by g | 2008-01-09 15:27:51

I think that Hillary’s tears were completely authentic and due to exhaustion. I recognized the feeling from times when I have been there. The person who I believed was calculated in his tears was Romney but the misogenist in the media didn’t question his motivations at all, only Hillary’s

 

Comment by shoephone | 2008-01-10 07:44:41

I don’t buy the theory that race was an issue. For God’s sake, Iowa is 95% WHITE! where Obama didn’t seem to have any trouble trouncing both Edwards and Clinton by 8% and 9%, respectively.

Dipsuting the NH results sounds like a whole lotta sour grapes to me.

 
 

Comment by bama_barrron | 2008-01-08 22:44:48

it seems to me john may have to do some real soul searching within the next couple weeks … hey a clinton/edwards ticket doesnt sound bad to me …

i just love the defeaning silence from the obama camp tonight. double digit lead my ass LOL …

Comment by Kathleen | 2008-01-08 23:00:35

No way Clinton would take on Edwards. I believe General Wesley Clark has been in the line up for quite some time. I trust Clark more than Hillary on Middle east issues.

We have heard for years that if Hillary ever won … our Governor Strickland would be a contender for VP (was the congressman for the district I live in, worked my ass off for him, he is a straight shooter and voted against the Iraq war).

Comment by Ron Cowin | 2008-01-08 23:26:51

I think that any talk about who anyone might select as a running mate is premature. Let’s see what happens after feb. 5th. Could it be possible that we could go into the convention without a candidate with enough votes for the nomination? In either party? That could be interesting. I am reminded of the ancient Chinese curse: May you live in interesting times!

 

Comment by silver | 2008-01-08 23:50:23

I predict Hillary’s VP choice will be Wes Clark. The Clintons both supported him during his presidential run, and now he’s returning the favor. Their ties go back a LONG way. If he’s chosen, with his excellent military background, he’ll give John McCain a run for his money.

Comment by Taters | 2008-01-09 00:11:40

Silver,
Maybe. Hmmm. a Rhodes scholar, who speaks several languages fluently, first in his class at West Point, masters in economics from Oxford, a decorated combat vet, has a street named after him in Kosovo and Alabama. And he beat Colin Powell in a friendly shooting match at the pistol range.
Oh yeah, Powell used a new Glock and Clark had the old Army issue 1911 Colt .45.

Comment by Fred C. Dobbs | 2008-01-09 12:42:10

The 1911 and 1911A1 Colt: things over 80 you can trust!

Comment by Taters | 2008-01-09 23:08:20

Good one, Fred. ;)

 
 

Comment by Shirin | 2008-01-09 23:48:41

And who intentionally and openly bombed civilian targets in Serbia.

 
 
 

Comment by Shirin | 2008-01-09 12:53:15

I would not trust any military man on Middle East issues, particularly one who directed bombing campaigns against civilian targets in Serbia (or anywhere else). He might be talking a good talk now, but who knows what he would actually do if he were in a position to do it?

 
 

Comment by Shirin | 2008-01-09 00:22:03

Hey, bama_baron, you never did tell me what I have said here that was demeaning to women in general, or what I have said to women here that demeaned them as a woman.

Comment by bama_barrron | 2008-01-09 06:54:34

shirin … as i said before you gave me this impression from your posts. ergo, review some of your postings … self reflection isnt a bad thing you know :)

Comment by Shirin | 2008-01-09 12:58:11

No, bama_baron. It is not my responsibility to engage in “self reflection” over your “impression”. You made the allegation that I have demeaned women in general, and individual women here because they were women, and now it is your responsibility to back it up with something real.

In fact, maybe it is YOU who needs to engage in “self-reflection” about exactly where that “impression” of yours is REALLY coming from.

 
 
 
 

Comment by jim | 2008-01-08 22:49:22

the idiot chris mathews at msnbc can’t get over the fact that hillary is the one to beat, but i think that all of the msn is afraid to speak ill of obama because they are afraid that they will be called a racist. did anyone see the racism in the tone of Donna Brazile on cnn, bitching about bill’s remarks. she is an idiot being so obvious playing the race card. obama has no qualifications to be prez, look at who he beat in his senate race, wasn’t it the continual candidate alan keynes?

 

Comment by TeakWoodKite | 2008-01-08 22:53:51

I love it when the MSM believes it’s own bullshit and it bites them squarely on thier collective ass.

It is crazy to think these cave dwellers have not learned a dam thing. What a Orwelian mass delusion our 4th estate has become….

Larry, it is not worth getting your blood pressure up over some crackheads tripping over each other lookin for the last rock to smoke. They can suck all the butane they want.

 

Comment by Kathleen | 2008-01-08 22:56:04

Hillary has been pounded more than any other candidate without a doubt.

I am convinced more than ever before Matthews is a complete and utter ass. He kept pushing for Edwards to concede but did not say anything about Richardson or the Republican candidates that came in third on down.

What the fuck does Matthews have against Edwards? Christ I just wish the arrogant fuck would stop determining everything from his agenda. Give us the info, the facts without your arrogant and smug comments Matthews.

It just feels like the two war candidates won. I will be praying for the Iranian people tonight I do not trust Hillary of McCain on Iran

Comment by TeakWoodKite | 2008-01-08 23:39:41

Matthews have against Edwards? He is not Irish.

 
 

Comment by Mr.Murder | 2008-01-08 22:59:37

Rumor has it Clark will get the VP nod.

I’d rather see him get NSA. It’s more crucial than Sec. of State for policy directives.

Though the man who helped command NATO and secure the Kosovo crisis could arguably lever the diplomatic tasks we need as Secretary of State to help with our growing demand for coalition building as we dilute the risk and share the success of future security items…

Edwards is an ideal VP pick because he would not hurt the Senate seat count on a ticket and that could be crucial in the coming votes.

Comment by Kathleen | 2008-01-08 23:05:12

Put Clark in any of these positions as far as I am concerned. Clark always seems so reasonable, knowledgeable not a warmonger. A military man not looking for a fight

Comment by TeakWoodKite | 2008-01-08 23:53:23

Clark actually caught a bunch of Crap at the beginning of the invasion of Iraq when he was on CNN and constantly raising the FUBAR issue.

Save me !! I just heard a spinning Exorcist head compare a politician to a thoroughbred horse….
ahhhhhhhh!!!!! Santa Ana 5th race goes off at 50 to 1.

 
 

Comment by GR3 | 2008-01-08 23:15:43

So Biden and Dodd have more important jobs than running for president? Looks like Obama and Clinton are in it for the long haul.
Whoever gets the nomination should consider lots of Democratic VP candidates. (I don’t want to think of a Clinton/McCain ticket.) Maybe an ideologue like Cheney. Hey – it’s worked for Bush!
Wonder what the odds are of both political conventions this year not having a clear winner going in?

 

Comment by HoosierHoops | 2008-01-09 10:58:55

I believe Senator Evan Bayh will get the nod for VP.

 
 

Comment by Mr.Murder | 2008-01-08 23:14:07

re: Edwards vote loss and third place finish there, Iowa was also more a Union state. Just about the differentiation(plus margin of error, give or take) trends against his total percentage.

John will trend well in Union states, and expectedly in the South.

As for the biggest foreign policy concern at this time, Dubya flew to Israel…

Comment by TeakWoodKite | 2008-01-08 23:56:37

“First and last trip to Israel” the paper said.

 

Comment by Donovan Fraser | 2008-01-09 17:47:34

I can see it now Omert asking….
“Mr Bush when are you gonna start bombing Iran? they might have, or could have, or thought about having Nookular weapons and we think the good old U S of A should start it’s 3rd war for no reason to protect us. After all, we are a heavily armed and subsidized Nuclear armed country . NATURALLY this makes us pretty helpless in the middle of all these damn ARABS. Oh did I say Arabs, i meant Persians. Like the cat. meow…
:)

 
 

Comment by Mr.Murder | 2008-01-08 23:18:51

Zogby, the conflicted questioner who joined ranks with Nixonite Brian Lamb of Cspan, had Obama over 40%.

So much for his legitimacy.

 

Comment by BernieO | 2008-01-08 23:20:06

I am reading and hearing a lot of complaints about Matthews. It’s about time. What a sexist pig! Tucker Carlson also. I could not believe that these guys had explicitly talked about Hillary as castrating, yet there was no discussion about it. Apparently a lot of us out here in flyover land noticed. Let’s hope this is a turning point. NBC should be ashamed.

Comment by Shirin | 2008-01-09 12:13:54

Not only sexist but jingoist/racist/bigot. I won’t repeat my story about what he said on local radio regarding wounded and dead Afghans, but it was hideous and disgusting.

 
 

Comment by silver | 2008-01-08 23:40:09

Fantastic article!!

 

Comment by Hope | 2008-01-09 00:18:45

Chris Mathews is a bloated, two-faced jerk whose time has come to RETIRE – already! I cannot believe how skewed this guy’s political punditry has become.

Perhaps now we can also dispel the idea that Obama is the new Moshiach. I cannot believe the polls could be so far off. Something is very fishy here. Is Rove anywhere in the vicinity?

Comment by Shirin | 2008-01-09 13:00:00

The new Moshiach? Nah – he’s actually the twelfth Imam. You will see soon enough.

 
 

Comment by Cujo359 | 2008-01-09 00:28:34

Of course, it’s not news by now, but MSNBC declared Clinton the winner. Looks like the margin will be three percent.

The short version of why this happened? It looks to me like folks who were going to vote for Richardson and Biden, or someone else who wasn’t the top three, voted mostly for Hillary. That’s not such an unreasonable thing – she’s closer to them politically than Edwards and more experienced than Obama. Anyway, I’m trying to gather the numbers together that will confirm or disprove my guess. Unfortunately, the official results won’t be posted until tomorrow.

Comment by Cujo359 | 2008-01-09 01:18:13

Yep, that’s my story, and I’m sticking to it.

Eight percent appears to have shifted from voting for someone not among the top three to voting for Hillary Clinton.

Comment by TeakWoodKite | 2008-01-09 01:26:11

And the “independent” vote split?

Comment by Cujo359 | 2008-01-09 02:24:23

That, I don’t know. Polls use various ways of determining who a “likely voter” is. I don’t know any of that. It seems to be something of a trade secret.

As your question implies, it’s also possible that there were just a lot of people there no one expected to vote Democratic. But since both Edwards’ and Obama’s share of the vote was pretty much as predicted, I’m guessing that it has more to do with change of heart by folks voting for candidates who don’t have a chance of winning, plus undecideds.

Of course, it’s possible that Edwards’ and Obama’s shares working out as predicted was just a coincidence in otherwise bad data.

Anyway, as I wrote in the article, it’s possible exit polls will tell a different tale.

Not that we have any reason to distrust those …

Comment by TeakWoodKite | 2008-01-09 02:30:18

McCain might have siphoned some as well.

 
 
 
 
 

Comment by liberalbuffet | 2008-01-09 01:02:42

Is it just me or is The “high drama” on this site for Hillery is getting very odd? I have always liked Bill & Hillery and do believe that Bill will go down as the best president of my life time. And I do believe that the right wing have always hated them for making the GOP look as stupid and evil as they really are, but this is really getting strange.

Comment by Shirin | 2008-01-09 01:26:40

It was already pretty strange by a couple of weeks ago, and it has only gotten stranger since. I sure hope the madness subsides soon.

 

Comment by Jess Wonderin | 2008-01-09 01:47:09

I don’t really follow your concern about “the Drama” – seems like the usual political exchange with most having valid supportable points . . . it would be strange to NOT have drama . . . as for Clinton – you are right! The GOP has never recovered from being made TOPTAL asses by his term’s economic and political heights with RepubliCON assplugs controlling Congress compared to the economic, diplomatic and military disaster under EIGHT YEARS of RepubliCON control of EVERYTHING!!!

We all know America would have been better off if we had just boarded up the White House after Clinton left . . . not much to brag about since – wide stance, war profiteerin’, money grubbing, pork barrelin’, lobby puppet, Page pokin’ budget bustin’ bovin buggering bums . . . ‘course I could be wrong and Captian Bunny Pants could go to the Middle East settle it on one fell swoop, and bring everlastin’ world peace and nookie-clear disarament with health care for all . . . and passes it on to President Julie Annie . . .

 
 

Comment by Daniel Ortega | 2008-01-09 01:13:41

Maybe the pollsters were smoking all that crack you and your scumbag CIA buddies brought in?

 

Comment by CK | 2008-01-09 01:43:04

I am minded of the 2004 presidential polls which were quite out of line with the reported vote tallies. The exit polls even moreso than the prior day polls. Also reminded of how much closer many of the races in 2006 were than the polls had them on the day before the election. I am minded that the polls showed Fred Thompson at 2% in Iowa on the day before the election. I wonder if people are lying to the pollsters. Yesterday Obama was anywhere from 5 to 11% ahead, today he is 2% behind. That is one hell of an error around a mean of 30%.
3 down 48 to go ( DC has a primary )

Comment by Cee | 2008-01-09 04:34:37

Someone made the point that people in Iowa declared in public.
These folks could say what they wanted before they shut the curtain.
I don’t think there is much doubt that women got ticked off the past two days and made the difference.

Comment by CK | 2008-01-09 09:58:18

The “Wilder/Bradley” effect at work? White folks will not actually vote for a black candidate as much as they say they will vote for a black candidate. That would translate into about 1 in every 7 dem and indy voters in NH being closet racists/generic liars given the disparity between the before polls and the actual vote count. Even if true, it does little to explain prior disparities between before polls and actual vote counts in the last presidential and in the 2006 congressionals. Turnout has been huge in both Iowa and NH. In both cases the turnout has been approx 2 or 3 to 1 in favour of the dems and overall about three times the prior presidential primary.

 
 
 

Comment by wethornet | 2008-01-09 01:49:03

I don’t know about you, but I am thoroughly pissed off at the lame, unprofessional conduct of the various networks–MSNBC in particular. They knew that the polls had at least 17% undecided. Rather than simply report that there were a significant number of undecided voters and any projections were not reliable,

what they should say is “we don’t know.” “various possibilities are x, y, and z.”

i compare this election to a stress/ekg medical test. it is revealing some signs of disease.

the media does NOT exist for what we think it’s purpose is. they are whores for their corporate masters. once you realize that then the scales fall from your eyes.

larry, go into amazon and check out kristina b’s “into the buzzsaw.” don’t remember if robert parry is in there, but one of the best books on journalism out there. and what happens to journalists who commit journalism.

Comment by Shirin | 2008-01-09 02:15:34

The U.S. MSM’s active – and still ongoing – participation in the Iraq deception should be enough to convince anyone of what American journalism really is.

Examples: Why are the likes of Dahr Jamail still, to this day, completely unheard of anywhere on the U.S. mainstream media? Why is Scott Ritter, who has been proven right on almost everything he has said, still virtually unheard of anywhere on the U.S. mainstream media? Why is Robert Fisk, one of the few western journalists who actually lives in the Arab world (for around twenty years now), “gets” the Arab world (though his recent stuff on Lebanon is quite horribly skewed by his personal affections), and speaks, reads, and writes Arabic ignored by the American mainstream media? I could go on, but, well, either you get the point, or you don’t want to get the point.

Comment by Kathleen | 2008-01-09 12:42:24

Completely with you on this. I do not believe that Matthews has ever had Scott Ritter or Flynt Leverett on his program. Yeah forget even getting close to a remarkable reporter like Fisk on.

Hell I don’t know if I have ever even seen Seymour Hersh on Matthews (could be wrong on this one).

Sure would like to seen Hersh on one of these MSM programs once a week. He is often on target

Comment by Shirin | 2008-01-09 13:12:00

Kathleen, what is this obsession with Matthews? Matthews is NOT the American MSM. I have not seen Dahr, or Scott, or Robert Fisk ANYWHERE on ANY mainstream outlet AT ANY TIME. These are incredibly courageous, articulate people who actually know what they are talking about. Dahr was, for all practical purposes, embedded with the Iraqi people, and is one of the very few western journalists who can tell what they experienced and felt. It is scary how consistently right Scott has been. And Robert Fisk is simply a phenomenon – a true journalist in a world where that breed has all but died out completely. We know people in common, and I am hoping to meet with him when I am in Lebanon this April (even though his reporting on Lebanon has been atrocious in the past couple of years).

The best I have seen on the MSM when it comes to Iraq is Juan Cole, and as much as I appreciate what he has to offer, he is NOT an Iraq expert, has never BEEN to Iraq, and does not understand Iraq. Plus, his analysis is badly influenced by his own personal prejudices (if you want a real expert on southern Iraq, by the way, check out Reidar Visser. He understands Iraq very well.

 
 
 
 

Comment by ponds | 2008-01-09 01:51:23

Is anyone else concerned that we may have seen the Bradley effect in action here? NH has a secret ballot as opposed to IA. The experiences of Tom Bradley, Harold Washington, Dinkins, Wilder, etc. tell us that people will tell the pollsters one thing and then vote their prejudices behind the curtain. How else to explain such a dramatic discrepancy. And if there is a “Bradley effect” for race, there is probably a similar but less dramatic phenomenon for gender. I love both Hillary and Obama, but this really frightens me for success in the general election.

Comment by Shirin | 2008-01-09 02:17:51

I do not love – or even like – either one based on their records and their policy statements. However, I, too, am frightened.

 

Comment by bama_barrron | 2008-01-09 07:00:35

ponds it wasnt the numbers that lied or the people interviewed … it was the lousy job of interpeting the raw data. the MSM and the pundits misinterpted the numbers in their rush to get ahead of the american public. rather simple … they need to go back to reporting the facts instead of predicting.

 
 

Comment by wethornet | 2008-01-09 02:09:23

re the media and people being pissed off.

i can’t find it, but w/i the last day or so, there was a you tube video of ron paul voters who chased faux’s sean hannity out of a restaurant, and just verbally mocked the sh*t out of him.

2 mins.

this was because of faux’s decision to exclude paul from the debate.

the peasants are grabbing their pitchforks.

Comment by TeakWoodKite | 2008-01-09 02:26:10

Looking for Frankenstien after they do that, I assume.

I mean no disrespect, but if you close your eyes and listen to Obamas audience chanting “Obama”! the sound was akin to an earlier time in Germany prior to WWII. It was the tone and cadence of the crowd…I can’t wait to hear that one sampled on some cut.

Comment by Kathleen | 2008-01-09 12:43:27

the Obamarama factor. Digital devotees…scary

Comment by TeakwoodKite | 2008-01-09 13:05:54

There is a frenzy factor…in the tone. I mean when you invoke JFK and MLK in the same breath and a holly roller tone…ekk

 
 
 

Comment by Jess Wonderin | 2008-01-09 02:27:25

I watched it – my exact same thoughts – they just needed the torches and howling dogs – he rushed ahead and ducked into the building followed by the crowd – funnier than O’Lielly getting spanked by the Secret Service (waiting for Loofahman to claim Obama lost because he wouldn’t speak to “The Facturd” . . .)

 

Comment by Cee | 2008-01-09 04:41:21

Here it is.

http://www.newshounds.us/2008/01/07/sean_hannity_flees_angry_ron_paul_supporters.php

When I was looking for it I came upon this charge

Sutton with 100% reporting reported 0 votes for paul but poster in Sutton posted:

Originally Posted by sstjean View Post
This was posted to ronpaul-801 tonight: “This town numbers are wrong wrong wrong on this map. I am from Sutton originally and my parents and one aunt all voted for Ron Paul today and Sutton says 0. So this is wrong. This is a town that had 20 people counting the ballots and I have no reason to believe that they cheated. Small town and I was born and raised there. The real numbers will come in by morning. The electronic machines in the big towns are the ones we have to worry about.”
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=82909

 
 

Comment by otherlisa | 2008-01-09 02:20:36

On a lighter (?) note, is anyone else terribly amused that Guiliani only managed to get 1% higher than Ron Paul? (9% to 8%)

Comment by Jess Wonderin | 2008-01-09 02:39:10

9/11, 9/11, 9/11 – Smiled so much my cheeks hurt . . . funnier than the Dead Fred crowd . . . seems McCain won ’cause the rest are SOOOOOO bad . . . and quite the moving monologue – almost dozed off 3 times before McCain wandered off stage!

 

Comment by kenoshaMarge | 2008-01-09 07:44:45

How about Tweety finding something positive in the fact that Rudy at least beat Ron Paul and was thus saved from humiliation?

 
 

Comment by wethornet | 2008-01-09 04:47:58

shirin, the m$m will never allow people like dahr j. or scott ritter a platform. because they are owned by the mil. ind. complex or their bffs. their truth is it would seriously f*ck up their profits and their agenda to let ritter and dahr loose on the public’s airwaves.

they know they can’t win an honest argument. so they deliberately ignore truthtellers. milton, (17th cent. england) has this absolutely delicious quote.


Though all the winds of doctrine were let loose to play upon the earth, so Truth be in the field, we do injuriously by licensing and prohibiting to misdoubt her strength. Let her and Falsehood grapple; who ever knew Truth put to the worse, in a free and open encounter.

JOHN MILTON, Areopagitica

and i’ve come up with wethornet’s corrollary to the age old philosophical question: if a tree falls in the forest does it make any noise? it depends on if there are any tv cameras there or not. and if it got on the air, or not.
~~~~~~~
one of my major awakenings was when i learned that howard zinn, oliver stone, and father berrigan weren’t just whacky peaceniks, but, had served in heavy combat in war. it was a severe whiskey tango foxtrot moment for me. wtf?

since then i’ve adopted the judge judy position: don’t pee on my leg and tell me it’s raining.
~~~

as to will things settle down around here at obamasucks.com. don’t know if you saw downblog recently, but i gave my answer/guess. it will be Nucking Futs around here until about 8 feb. which is 3 days after super tuesday, when i suspect that things will finally shake out. (somewhat; could go to the convention, but by 8 feb. things will be a lot clearer.)

as they say in central asia, “tell the truth, nad have one foot in the stirrup.”

which leads to….cont’d.

Comment by Shirin | 2008-01-09 13:18:43

I’m afraid you are right on all counts, WH.

Syria here I come!

 
 

Comment by Cee | 2008-01-09 04:51:46

Brad blog

The machines used in the state are the same ones seen being hacked in HBO’s documentary, Hacking Democracy. As well, a single private company with a very bad record, LHS Associates, Diebold’s distributor and technical contractor in New England, runs the elections and controls the vulnerable memory cards for the voting systems across the state. That company has an horrendous record of lax security policies and has admitted to having replaced memory cards, on a whim, on their own, in the middle of past elections.

UPDATE 9:04pm PT: We’d say the numbers coming out of New Hampshire tonight, as compared to the pre-election polling, offer good reason to be concerned about the points above. Very. More details now here…

http://www.bradblog.com/?p=5529

Comment by CK | 2008-01-09 10:02:13

It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything.
Joseph Stalin

Comment by Fred C. Dobbs | 2008-01-09 12:37:05

“This is America, boys. Just because you got the most votes doesn’t mean you won.” – Agent Fox Mulder

Comment by TeakwoodKite | 2008-01-09 12:58:38

“I want to believe!” – Agent Scully

 
 

Comment by Cee | 2008-01-09 21:49:38

Until someone confronts the vote counters like they did in Sutton New Hampshire. Ron Paul went from zero votes to thirty one.

 
 

Comment by KS | 2008-01-09 13:42:16

Brad’s very valid point is that professional polls are rarely that wrong and that the machines that count the paper ballots are easy to hack. Also his point is that the polls were wrong only for the Clinton/Obama race.
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=5530#more-5530

“I should also note that some 40% of New Hampshire’s precincts are hand-counted, which equals about 25% of the votes. All the rest are counted on hackable Diebold op-scan systems, with completely hackable memory cards, all programmed and managed by LHS Associates. As Bev Harris of BlackBoxVoting.org who seems to share my concern, says, LHS is the “chain of custody” in New Hampshire elections.

“Other folks that I’ve spoken to, who follow this sort of thing, share my concern at this hour. Harris noted that it will be interesting to compare numbers of the hand-counted precincts with those counted on the hackable Diebold op-scan systems.”

“Their claim: that I am some how charging that Clinton stole the election. I have made no such claim. In fact, if there was skullduggery here, there are plenty of reasons to believe it could have been committed by any number of interested parties, who have nothing to do with the Clinton campaign.”

The paper ballots need to be audited. I’m a Clinton supporter, but I first support honest elections.

 
 

Comment by kenoshaMarge | 2008-01-09 05:03:58

Perhaps MSNBC might want to rethink putting Idiot Chris Matthews on the same stage as Keith Olbermann. It only makes the Matthews Dimwit look dimmer. If you didn’t see the exchange where Brokaw basically said that maybe the media should shut the hell up until the voters had their say, it was funny. Poor petulant little Tweety was not happy but lacked the courage to try to speak over Brokaw. Here’s the link to the exchange if you missed it.

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/01/08/live-new-hampshire-primary-updates/

 

Comment by wethornet | 2008-01-09 05:13:33

cont’d.

(admin note: awesome opportunity for anyone to do something concrete about this iraq war.)

shirin, downblog you and another person mentioned the iraq war documentary meeting resistance. it is simply awesome.

(disclosure: i saw it this past august at the veterans for peace convention in st. louis. i also know and am friends, since then, with the filmmakers, molly bingham and steve connors. good people.)

it is showing in california right now. and molly and steve are often available afterwards for q&a. it is an awesome opportunity to see a film that could help awaken americans, and a neater opportunity to meet and talk with steve and molly.

what i was wondering was, do you know people in california and elsewhere and would you consider helping to spread the word about this awesome documentary to any and all contacts that you have?

(for those who don’t know the filmmakers interviewed actual iraqis who were in the resistance just outside of baghdad, to do serious journalism. and try and help americans understand why they fight. short version: if foreign country x invaded the u.s. how would we react? they now have a documentary out that is playing around the country.)

here is a synopsis.
http://www.meetingresistance.com/synop.html

here is the trailer.
http://www.meetingresistance.com/trailer.html
(the link wasn’t working for me; not sure what’s up with that.)

here are places it is playing.
http://www.meetingresistance.com/screenings.html

i greatly appreciate y’all’s help.

tell ‘em the airborne ranger in mizzourah sent you; they’ll know who i am.

 

Comment by wethornet | 2008-01-09 05:41:34

cee, just posted the link to bradblog. one of the best on the problem with electronic voting.

pls. read the link people.

caps and bold on purpose.

SWEET JESUS, MARY & JOSEPH. HERE IS THE KEY PARAGRAPH.

Reporters would do well to take note, particularly

given the tightness of the race at this hour on the

Democratic side, between Obama and Clinton —

curious, given the final Zogby polling numbers which

were dead-on on the Republican side, but so far,

seem wildly off on the Dem side. Zogby’s numbers had

predicted an Obama blowout, 42/29 over Clinton.


UNFUCKINGBELIEVABLE!

http://www.bradblog.com/?p=5529

matt drudge of the sludge, i mean, drudge report was responsible for other lies mainlined into the lamestream media. they’re running out of ballots.
~~~~~~~~
also mentioned in the article is another great person on this issue. BlackBoxVoting.org’s Bev Harris.
~~~~~~
40% of n.h. precints count by hand. diebold does the rest.
~~~
what needs to happen is compare and contrast, like today and tomorrow, the hand counted precints vs. the diebold precints and see if anything is wildly fishy.

Comment by Cujo359 | 2008-01-09 18:09:15

Unfortunately, such a contrast would prove nothing. The two groups of municipalities, with and without evoting, are self-selecting groups. They may differ in voting patterns for any one of a number of reasons.

Without paper backups, and regular audits of them, there is no way to be sure these things are right, IMHO.

 
 

Comment by Cee | 2008-01-09 05:59:23

I am so fucking angry I could break something because people will accept this shit!!

Speaking for what we accept let us revist Sibel Edmonds thanks to Chris Floyd

Although BCCI as a “bank” eventually failed, spectacularly, costing its unsuspecting customers more than $10 billion, almost no one was punished for its myriad crimes, and the full extent of the organization’s activities continue to be shielded by the many national governments that became entangled in its operations, including the United States and Great Britain, where the Labour government has made extraordinary interventions in court cases to protect BCCI’s secrets, invoking the most draconian state secret laws to quash a lawsuit against the Bank of England for the blind but knowing eye that the regulator turned toward BCCI’s deadly fraud.

Before exploring these deeper connections further, let’s review the tip of the iceberg that Edmonds has courageously exposed, despite the very real threat of retaliation from the U.S. government. From the Times:

“Edmonds described how foreign intelligence agents had enlisted the support of US officials to acquire a network of moles in sensitive military and nuclear institutions. Among the hours of covert tape recordings, she says she heard evidence that one well-known senior official in the US State Department was being paid by Turkish agents in Washington who were selling the information on to black market buyers, including Pakistan.

“The name of the official – who has held a series of top government posts – is known to The Sunday Times. He strongly denies the claims. However, Edmonds said: ‘He was aiding foreign operatives against US interests by passing them highly classified information, not only from the State Department but also from the Pentagon, in exchange for money, position and political objectives.’

“She claims that the FBI was also gathering evidence against senior Pentagon officials – including household names – who were aiding foreign agents. ‘If you made public all the information that the FBI have on this case, you will see very high-level people going through criminal trials,’ she said.”

Edmonds goes on to provide details of the operation, which “appeared to be obtaining information from every nuclear agency in the United States,” under the protection of Pentagon and State Department officials. Turkish and Israeli cut-outs were used to get nuclear info to the ultimate recipient, Pakistan’s intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), and Abdul Qadeer Khan, “father” of Pakistan’s nuclear bomb. As the Times notes:
http://www.chris-floyd.com/Articles/Articles/The_Bomb_in_the_Shadows%3A_Proliferation%2C_Corruption_and_the_Way_of_the_World/

Comment by wethornet | 2008-01-09 06:08:20

re: being so angry. I hear ya girl.

Chris Floyd is great. As is Sibel.

Left out is Grover Norquist is involved in this. Also left out, the GOP had very deep ties worldwide — for decades — with conservative/fascist groups/gvts. around the world.

These boys play for real.

 
 

Comment by wethornet | 2008-01-09 06:17:24

Bev Harris of BlackBoxVoting.com is reporting that:

1. Diebold counts 81% of the precincts, not 60% as in the bradblog report.

2. She thinks like I do. Namely, there has to be a (whatever ya call it, reconciliation/compare and contrast with Diebold vs. hand counted.)

1-7-07: Silvestro the Cat & New Hampshire Elections
UPDATE: 4 pm EST Jan 8: The first order of business tonight needs to be to compare results in the hand counted paper ballot locations vs. the Silvestro-programmed Diebold machine locations. Here’s a link to feed for AP results when they come in:
http://www.thetelegraph.com/news/new_9728___article.html/results_hampshire.html

Comma delimited database: NH municipalities hand count vs use Diebold machines: http://www.bbvdocs.org/NH/state/Jan-08-votingsystems-NH.txt

ORIGINAL ARTICLE

John Silvestro and his small private business, LHS Associates, has the exclusive programming contracts for all New Hampshire voting machines, which combined will count about 81 percent of the vote tomorrow.

http://www.blackboxvoting.org/

~~~
I would imagine she (and bradblog) will have more later today.

(I would also submit that it is a possibility, emph. on possibility people, that Ron Paul’s #s were shaved, and/or Rudy’s enhanced so that RP finished behind Rudy Julie Annie.)

Anything is poss. w/these pricks. They are evil toads who don’t have moral compasses like you and I. Their true north is power.

Here endeth the lesson.

 

Comment by Cee | 2008-01-09 06:46:03

New Hampshire Primary – ALL Diebold, ALL the Time
Tuesday, 8 January 2008, 7:55 pm
Opinion: Michael Collins

ALL Diebold, ALL the Time
It’s the New Hampshire Primary

********

Introduction. The more things stay the same, the worse they smell
- By Michael Collins – “Scoop” Independent News – Washington, D.C.
Tomorrow’s New Hampshire primary represents a major turning point in the presidential primaries. We’ve got the rising star of Obama, the stunned Clinton camp, and the populist efforts of the fast moving Democrat, John Edwards, just off a 9% increase in the national polls. At this juncture, the Republican race is less compelling unless you happen to be John McCain or Mitt Romney.

Does Obama’s highly favorable corporate media image stack up against reality? Is this the end of Hillary, or at least the beginning of the end? Can Edwards kick in the door with a strong showing and demand coverage? Will Ron Paul embarrass Giuliani by edging him out for fourth?

We’ll never know for sure.

Why? It’s been nearly eight years since the debacle of Florida and nearly six since the miracle Chambliss win against Cleland. Surely we have reliable, verifiable voting systems in place? It’s been almost four years since the nationwide disaster of the 2004 election with irregularities still emerging.

Hasn’t all this been fixed?

You’d think so. But, the answer is definitely no. Votes are still taken by voting machines produced by vendors highly sympathetic to the Republican Party. The machines are still off limits to those who want to examine how they operate and observe real vote counting. And good luck if your candidate loses and there’s fraud or voting machine problems suspected.

You’re out of luck. You can’t hire outside experts to look at the mission critical software in the optical scanners (Sec. 1.5). You’ll have a great deal of difficulty examining the paper records with voter marked choices. Don’t count on seeing any recounts either. Almost all the states have high hurdles before you can request and get one of these simple verification tools (See Appendix 2).

Even with a relatively accommodating state like New Hampshire, only candidates can request a recount, but recounts are almost unheard of in presidential primaries. Citizens are not allowed to request and get recounts in the “granite state.”

continue

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0801/S00057.htm

 

Comment by Connie L | 2008-01-09 09:25:44

Larry, Thanks for your columns on Obama and Hillary. Tom Brokow took MSNBC and other media outlets to task for making the news and not just reporting the news. Hillary’s funeral was announced days ago and people like Matthews should be ashamed of themselves. Picking a president shouldn’t be a game because this is a serious job. The country needs a tough, bright strong leader more than ever. Hillary is damn tough, after what she has been shoveled for many years. Oh, I read this past year that Andrea Mitchell and her husband Alan are personal friends of Scooter Libby and have Thanksgiving dinner together with mutual friends every year. If there is even a hint of truth she should be recusing herself from anything to do with Libby or Plame.

Comment by Kathleen | 2008-01-09 09:59:13

Not just the MSM who did this. Go listen to Air America’s owner Mark Greens program 7 days in America this past Saturday. Mark Green brushed any effort by Katrina from the Nations to discuss that Edwards was part of this race under the rug. It was all about Obama Obama Hillary Obama. I am sorry to say that Amy Goodman of Democracy Now did the exact same thing on her one hour program yesterday. Go listen for yourselves.

This exclusion of Edwards is not just happening in the MSM.

 

Comment by norris morris | 2008-01-10 15:02:46

Mitchell is an old line conservative who joins all of the DC ladies who exchange dinner parties, and belong to the elite club of conservatives that feed off the money received from the press jobs held by taxpayer government jobs. The cronyism of Mitchell is an old story. She’s vile.

I watched her lie and trash Hillary. Not for the first time. She has no credibility as a journalist and belongs to the whorehouse at CNBC along the salivating Matthews and others who destroy our so called free airwaves and our freedom of the press.

They will continue unless we can at least slow them down and demand acountability by protesting to the networks and their sponsor clients.

Unless we spend time in organized protest this slime will continue in a media obsessed with a 24/7 newscycle fighting for audiences. Believe me, this can be done, we just don’t bother to do it.

 
 

Comment by grtphoto | 2008-01-09 09:39:23

absolutely they “got it wrong”, of course blame it on some thing else other than themselves. it was sickened by the crass media coverage. they are all frauds and their hate for the clintons is so obvious (and tired). get a new cause. how about tell the american people the truth about the change candidate obama? wont’t disclose his big gift donors or locations of donor parties? his campaign chair is a wash. lobbyist? wow, how is this change? seems wash insider to me. i am so disgusted with msnbc, isn’t obvious when you juxtapose the old guard (mathews, russert, even brokaw vs. maddow)? they can’t even analyze the events at all, it’s all cliche slogans and b.s. olbermann looks ridiculous trying to mix between them. i wish he would just put them in their places as maddow did to mathews last night, anyone catch that? she referenced TPM and their anecdotal blame of mathews coverage of clinton as to why she won NH. Go Larry! Love your honest assessments and obama disinfo!

 

Comment by bob h | 2008-01-09 09:46:48

The inaugural column of William Kristol (NYT, Jan. 7):

“Thank you, Senator Obama….It looks as if you’re about to beat her in New Hampshire. There will be no Clinton Restoration..”

Spot on, again, Mr. Kristol.

Getting your money’s worth, Mr. Sulzberger?

 

Comment by Kathleen | 2008-01-09 09:55:38

From the time that congress voted for the 2002 war resolution to the time that the Bush administration illegally invaded Iraq took six months. Hillary’s yes vote on the Kyl Lieberman amendment was in October. The “cakewalk in Iraq” traitors are not done yet. They are still pushing hard for aggressive action towards Iran.

Justin Raimando hits the nail on the head…again.

http://www.antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=12176

anuary 9, 2008
‘A Heartbeat Away’ From War
With Iran and Pakistan
by Justin Raimondo

As the American people amuse themselves with the illusion that they have any say in the way they are presently governed, our rulers are moving toward war. Two recent incidents underscore the imminence of this prospect.

The Iranian “provocation” in the straits of Hormuz has set the stage for a new “crisis” manufactured wholly by the War Party, the rationale for which is uncritically accepted by our passive “mainstream” media. We are expected to believe that five minuscule speedboats “menaced” the USS Hopper, a destroyer armed with missiles; the cruiser USS Port Royal; and the USS Ingraham, a frigate. That’s rather like five gnats “menacing” a trio of elephants. Oh, but that’s not all. In addition to intercepting the American flotilla, CNN reports the Iranians supposedly issued explicit threats:

Comment by Fred C. Dobbs | 2008-01-09 12:34:32

Unfortunayely, the MADDOX and TURNER JOY weren’t available for this duty.

 
 

Comment by wethornet | 2008-01-09 10:45:11

i reported earlier that per bradblog 40% of n.h. was hand counted, and diebold did the rest, or 60%. but that bev harris of blackboxvoting said 81% was diebold. at the time i wondered about the discrepancy.

it just got cleared up for me. in today’s post on brad blog he writes:

I should also note that some 40% of New Hampshire’s precincts are hand-counted, which equals about 25% of the votes. All the rest are counted on hackable Diebold op-scan systems, with completely hackable memory cards, all programmed and managed by LHS Associates. As Bev Harris of BlackBoxVoting.org who seems to share my concern, says, LHS is the “chain of custody” in New Hampshire elections.

40% precincts hand counted in this case = 25% of total votes = 75% for the diebold gang.

that makes more sense.

wethornet, who doesn’t like to put out “bad poop.” (govt. expression, which i have NO idea how it came to be. :-) )

http://www.bradblog.com/?p=5530#more-5530

Comment by Cee | 2008-01-09 12:07:24

2008 New Hampshire Democratic Primary Results –Total Democratic Votes: 286,139 – Machine vs Hand (RonRox.com) 09 Jan 2008
Hillary Clinton, Diebold Accuvote optical scan: 39.618%
Clinton, Hand Counted Paper Ballots: 34.908%
Barack Obama, Diebold Accuvote optical scan: 36.309%
Obama, Hand Counted Paper Ballots: 38.617%
Machine vs Hand:
Clinton: 4.709% (13,475 votes)
Obama: -2.308% (-6,604 votes)

2008 New Hampshire Republican Primary Results –Total Republican Votes: 236,378 Machine vs Hand (RonRox.com) 09 Jan 2008
Mitt Romney, Diebold Accuvote optical scan: 33.075%
Romney, Hand Counted Paper Ballots: 25.483%
Ron Paul, Diebold Accuvote optical scan: 7.109%
Paul, Hand Counted Paper Ballots: 9.221%
Machine vs Hand:
Romney: 7.592% (17,946 votes)
Paul: -2.112% (-4,991 votes)

http://www.legitgov.org/nh_machine_vs_paper.html

 
 

Comment by longwalksinparis.blogspot.com | 2008-01-09 10:54:39

Obama ? Nothing more than manufactured opposition. Give team Clinton credit for creating him.

 

Comment by Kathleen | 2008-01-09 11:39:20

What terrifies me about the results of the New Hampshire vote is that the two war candidates won.

Senator Clinton and Senator Mc Cain who sang “bomb Bomb Bomb Iran” with delight a while back both voted for the Kyl Lieberman amendment in October….which Senator Webb described as “tantamount to declaring war on Iran”. The “cakewalk in Iraq” zealots who have been repeating unsubstantiated claims about Iran for the last four years have not stopped pushing for military action against Iran. We recently witnessed the MSM turn an event in the Straits of Hormuz into an inflamed event.

Justin Raimando of Antiwar.com writes “The commander of one of the U.S. warships has been quoted as saying that they were “a heartbeat away” from opening fire on their Iranian tormentors, and that just about sums up the chances of an armed conflict breaking out – we’re an incident away from going to war with Tehran, and there is every indication that the administration is marshaling its forces, political and diplomatic as well as military, to launch an assault before Bush leaves office.”

I am deeply worried by this vote in New Hampshire. I do not want to witness the U.S. attack Iran based on unsubstantiated claims.

I have not heard Hillary or McCain talk about focusing on diplomacy in regard to Iran. Our invasion of Iraq has destroyed the Iraqi peoples lives. This vote in New Hampshire for the war candidates has me worried about the Iranian peoples lives.

 

Comment by Bill Keyes | 2008-01-09 11:58:35

Ho hum…another day…the games continue….more Iraqs die…more billions wasted in Iraq…more foreclosures in the housing market…..more ppl laid off…etc etc etc…

But now to the really important news…..

Was Hillary’s tears real or fake?

Is Britney out in or out of rehab?

What about Obama’s church’s support of Mother Africa?

Who will Edwards back if he doesn’t do better in Super Tuesday?

Is John McCain really 71 years old?

bla, bla, bla, bla, bla, bla,

When will you ppl wake up and realize that TV News is not fair, unbiased, informative , educational or free.

TV NEWS IS ENTERTAINMENT!!

ITS ABOUT POWER PROFIT AND GREED!!

ITS ABOUT IF IT BLEEDS IT LEADS!!

THEY DO NOT GIVES A RATS ASS ABOUT WHO WINS WHAT.

THEY DONT CARE ABOUT THE TRUTH.

THEY CARE ABOUT RATINGS RATINGS AND RATINGS WHICH

EQUALS..

MONEY, MORE MONEY..MORE MONEY AND MORE MONEY!!

ALL OF THIS IS LEADING UP TO WHAT?????

FEBRUARY SWEEPS….FEBRUARY SWEEPS….AND FEBRUARY SWEEPS WHICH EQUALS…

THE BOOK….THE BOOK….THE BOOK AND THE BOOK WHICH EQUALS…

WHAT THEY CAN CHARGE ADVERTISERS UNTIL THE NEXT SWEEPS WEEK WHICH IS IN NOVEMBER.

How much more clear do I have to make to you idiots that TV news is not about truth justice and the American way, but its about the American way of making money, money and more money!!!

Get a life ppl, do something productive

Sign Wexler’s petition to impeach Cheney

Donate to an Iraqi orphanage…

Do anything but for Gods sakes stop this endless rangling over Chris Matthews, MSNBC and all the other useless bullshit that is now DOMINATING THIS BLOG!!

Yeh I know I can go somewhere else and put my rantings where the sun don’t shine.

But this used to be a blog where there was REAL discussion about REAL issues took place daily. I looked forward to logging on to post my views, read views by Shirin, Leslie larry, cee, hoosier hoops and many others but now all I get is another useless rehash of useless TV News.

As I said once before in order to comment now its like being in a chat room for teenagers where all the discussion is around she said what?…he said what?…about me??

I think I’ll go watch the new American Gladiators…

Maybe it would be more entertaining if all the candidates were on it.

Comment by Kathleen | 2008-01-09 12:06:46

The candidates are on Gladiators and we’re in the coliseum. Your absolutely right, that’s why I am looking at land in Costa Rica. Happy to become an ex-patriot in my 60’s and 70’s. Tired of trying. Let the Obamarama young uns take their turns.

If McCain or Clinton get in it is “bomb bomb Iran”

Comment by Fred C. Dobbs | 2008-01-09 12:31:37

This pursuit requires a thorough understanding of the differences between Costa Rican and US land laws, especially thise regarding Squatters.

Try to gain this information from at least two different sources, neither of which is an interested party to your Transaction.

A little Lambada through Costa Rican property law will make you REALLY appreciate the simplicity of a Mexican land transaction.

Comment by Kathleen | 2008-01-09 12:46:17

Thanks for the advice

 
 
 

Comment by norris morris | 2008-01-10 15:29:58

Your points are well taken, but you still remain helpless and cynical, angry and disappointed. Put your mouth where your blogs are. Get a group, or join one that exists that counter and limit some of the media intensity and rebel in order to hold them accountable.

We can write all the blogs we want. The media must be challenged by forming or joining or creating group response in holding the media accountable for their disgraceful,incompetent and biased behavior.

How? By thousands, even millions of poeple through the internet or MoveOn to Take Them On. Find out who NBC and CNBC’s client sponsors are. Email en masse that they are helping to destroy the democratic electoral process. During the Kerry campaign in 2004 we ran a most effective campaign which forced Knight Ridder and other stations throughout the country to take the Swiftboat spots off their local stations. Many. many did. Not soon enough, as Kerry’s response [and subsequently ours] was too slow.

It was called: “Stop Sinclair” [Media co]. We threatened boycott of sponsors who allowed spots to be run on all local affiliates.

We are too passive, and the key to Obama’s allure in spite of his aping of King and Kennedy without the background necessary is simple.

Young people are too lazy to do it themselves and organize rebellion against injustice, They see and believe that they will get someone to do this for them.

Uniter? No. We the people can protest unfairness and at least make the networks take more responsibility. They need audience numbers to survive, but our young and not so young don’t know this.

I am white, but come from the political activism that changed much in America. And BTW, Clinton was dead on when she so saliently pointed out that after Martin Luther King [who I marched with], the Civil Rights Act would never have come about when it did without Lyndon B. Johnson’s making it a reality through conviction,passion, and hard work. Yes, all of this in spite of his disastrous role in Vietnam.

But misconstruing Hillary’s instructive remark simply mirrors the ignorance our voters have of our history, and/or understanding the why and hows of realpolitik.

 

Comment by Sometime-CIA-Defender | 2008-01-10 15:49:16

Sign Wexler’s petition to impeach Cheney

Check. May have accidentally signed it twice, heh.

Donate to an Iraqi orphanage…

We can do that?

I think I’ll go watch the new American Gladiators…

Maybe it would be more entertaining if all the candidates were on it.

Yeah, or Chris Mat— er, nevermind. :)

 
 

Comment by TC | 2008-01-09 12:03:03

Never underestimate the American people. We The People.

Comment by Shirin | 2008-01-09 12:21:56

Nobody ever went broke underestimating the people.

 

Comment by norris morris | 2008-01-10 15:37:04

The American people will be underestimated until they learn to act on their own. Who they elect is but a small part of the democratic process.

You cannot expect anyone to do this for you. At the moment, everything could change with Bloomberg in the race. He could win or be another ego obsessed Nader, except he has billions and a tremendous organization.

Where’s the beef the young [and other not so young] should be making about our disastrous media?

All the ranting and all the blogs cannot do this without organized unified effort. Put your money where your mouth is.

 
 

Comment by Kathleen | 2008-01-09 12:54:12

Larry Jane over at FDL has some interesting insights into Edwards staying in the race.

http://firedoglake.com/2008/01/09/where-do
-we-go-from-here-2/#more-15245

 

Comment by 1950democrat | 2008-01-09 16:31:25

Damn right let’s do a system test of vote-counting and recounts wherever possible before Nov.

But as for only the Clinton numbers not matching earlier polls, I’ve heard that CNN had a running poll going on electin day and the Clinton totals kept climbing all day. Did they finally match the vote numbers (and what about exit poll numbers)?

Certainly the media coverage of HIllary’s every breath those two days made me so mad that I took more action than usual, so I can imagine it sent a lot of other women to the polls, or made them change their non-viable candidate votes to Hillary sooner than they’d planned.

 

Comment by Mr.Murder | 2008-01-09 23:37:55

Biden cashed his chips in Iowa and boosted Obama as payback for his previous gaffe.

Barack was losing that kind of boost outside a caucus system, the favorite second choice of some establishment Democrats won second place.

 

Pingback by Live Free or Die and Other Thoughts on The Granite State « Chris Tackett’s Blog | 2008-01-30 15:13:49

[...] is how wrong the polls were in predicting the results in New Hampshire. You can find that coverage here, here or here or a thousand other places, I’m sure. The average from all the major polls had [...]

 

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