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Are We Preparing to Start a New Middle East Fire?

I know some of you need a break from the campaign fol-de-rol, or at least think you do. Well, you’ll be sorry. Looks like the Administration is trying an indirect method to provoke Iran and its surrogate, Hezbollah, to do something provocative.

First, Pat Lang has an excellent piece titled, Why do we keep fiddling with Lebanon? Pat writes:

It used to be a kind of sick, Beiruti joke that the Lebanese thought Bill Clinton and Hillary woke up every morning and immediately asked what had happened in Beirut overnight. It was a joke because anyone who knew anything knew that nobody in Washington who mattered really gave a damn about what happened in Beirut.

Now, unfortunately, Washington DOES care about what the Lebanese are doing to themselves. The Lebanese would be far better off if America just left them alone to fester in their mutual animosities. They are so good at it. It is a kind of art form in the salons and coffee houses of Beirut.

Instead the US revels in hallucination in which the “freedom agenda” fantasy melds with; Israeli and NSC obsession with Hizbullah and Saudi dreams of a restored Sunni triumphalism in the Levant. The effective interaction of Zionist loathing of the idea of Shia power in Lebanon and the long standing Saudi Mashrou’ (project) in Lebanon and Syria makes me wonder if they are actually talking to each other somewhere or if Elliot Abrams is a good and sufficient intermediary.

Three US naval vessels off the Lebanese coast. Wow. What a threat! They can’t be seen. We have to tell the target of this strategic information operation that they are there. That will frighten them!! What are we thinking of?

The Syrians? Ah well. This is a hopeless case. No amount of interest on the part of Damascus and Jerusalem in working out a deal seems sufficient to placate the merchants of conflict in Washington. Foolish.

Then there is news from Al-Jazeera that the Saudis are pulling their folks out of Lebanon. They clearly believe there is a chance something bad might happen:

The Saudi Arabian embassy in Beirut has called on its nationals to leave Lebanon a day after a US warship was positioned off the country’s coast.
The embassy on Saturday sent SMS messages to Saudis living in Lebanon urging them to leave the country as soon as possible, Al Jazeera’s correspondent said.

Saudi Arabia issued an advisory last month urging its citizens not to travel to Lebanon because of deteriorating political and security conditions.

Kuwait and Bahrain followed with similar calls.

Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia is a major supporter of the Sunni-led government in Lebanon which has been locked in a 15-month-old political standoff with an opposition led by Iranian-and-Syrian backed Hezbollah.

Let’s not forget that Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate for the assassination last month of the Hezbollah terrorist chief, Imad Mughniyeh.  Next couple of weeks could be pretty interesting.  This will be a further reminder of how unprepared Barack Obama is to be President.  Well intentioned but way over his head.

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Comment by Simon | 2008-03-01 19:06:13

Let’s not forget that Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate for the assassination last month of the Hezbollah terrorist chief, Imad Mughniyeh. Next couple of weeks could be pretty interesting.

The greater issue, to me, anyway, is how Russia, the EU and China react to protect their Iranian investments.

Bush and Cheney ARE incredibly stupid, make no mistake, ultimately, I see Bush and Cheney, and those who line up behind them, as pawns, parts of a greater game.

YMMV, of course.

 

Comment by ckrantz | 2008-03-01 19:07:17

I assume the fact that USS Cole is a guided-missile destroyer have some significance. And the Mughniyeh assasination some importance with his longstanding ties to Fatah and other Palestinian groups.

Full scale war in the middle east will interrupt campaign season silliness I suspect.

Comment by Simon | 2008-03-01 19:13:15

Full scale war in the middle east will interrupt campaign season silliness I suspect.

No country is in a position to support a full scale middle eastern war, unless the terrorist groups are looking to dust off some of those illegal arms they’ve been purchasing from men like…Auchi.

The only other event of significance is the Russian election, today, Dmitry Medvedev assuming Putin’s former position, Putin taking the role of Prime Minister.

Or expected to…

 

Comment by Carolyn Kay | 2008-03-02 13:34:09

Am I the only one who thinks the deployment of the U.S. Cole in those waters is an invitation?

Carolyn Kay
MakeThemAccountable.com

Comment by Simon | 2008-03-02 14:00:11

Am I the only one who thinks the deployment of the U.S. Cole in those waters is an invitation?

And you’re probably right, but Cheney will lose, as he has for the past seven years.

IMO it’s expected he will lose, he’s a moron.

But despite having this MORON call strategy, how do you capitalize on it, on his weaknesses, which, in his case, is a very soft intellect?

What is very sad to me, though, is the shift in Israeli position, in terms of being a middle east power.

As compared to seven years ago, they now seem only to have as much soft power as the Palestinians. And this is Israel.

I know they have the weapons, but the rest of the middle east is now armed very well, terrorists and all. And Iran now has Russia, and China, who can use Israel as wedge issue against the US, to isolate, in the Middle East. Israel exacerbates the issue by mindlessly fighting, like Cheney, and they lose more and more traction with each militaristic go around.

And that’s the future of the US under the neocons, and Obama, who thinks like a neocon, or takes direction from one.

 
 
 

Comment by chris | 2008-03-01 19:12:28

Yes, thanks for the post that brings the rest of world back into the mix.

I was born in late 60s….the Israel, Lebanon, Palestinean conflict. But what my earliest impression was about the Mid East conflict was actually shaped by “The Book of Revelations” and that the “anti-christ” would bring “peace to the middle east”.

Now that i’m about to finish my 4th Decade of living, I’ve learned a lot, seen this situation ebb and flow. I’ve watched 5 Presidents get involved and yet rockets still hit Sderot, and homes are still plowed down in Gaza.

The ignorance of many Americans extends to their Representatives as well. Just watch CSPAN and you’ll see countless Reps who display their ignorance, almost always in deference to Isreal of course.

Will Obama be able to be “The One” and see through the Matrix that is the AIPAC lobby? Will he grant fair witness to anyone outside of that view? Doubtful. He’ll say, “Other Presidents have tried this, yet I will succeed, because We Are The One’s We’ve Been Waiting For.”

Comment by Simon | 2008-03-01 19:22:31

Will Obama be able to be “The One” and see through the Matrix that is the AIPAC lobby?

I used to think AIPAC was the big bully, and certainly they exert an influence that is not acceptable on American politicians, but the role of the Saudis, and the middle eastern oil men like Auchi, and others, should be examined very closely.

So, I’d want to find out what was going on there, first.

And yes, sometimes it appears a country is fighitng against it’s better interests, but look at Cheney, and you understand a lot of those guys aren’t smart.

Chaos is the new meme, and woe to those who practice do it yourself plastic surgery, at home.

Comment by chris | 2008-03-01 20:58:09

“I used to think AIPAC was the big bully, and certainly they exert an influence that is not acceptable on American politicians, but the role of the Saudis, and the middle eastern oil men like Auchi, and others, should be examined very closely.”

I agree with this, and could have elaborated to include other interests. But the interest no demonstrated is towards the people who feel the shock of the rocket attacks and Catepillar bulldozers

Comment by Simon | 2008-03-02 10:55:31

I agree with this, and could have elaborated to include other interests

.

Please do, the more information, the better.

And you’re right, tHAT civilians have to suffer for all these wannabe cartoon warriors is garbage.

That has to stop.

 
 

Comment by Kathleen | 2008-03-03 13:16:10

Collective chaos and collective disorientation and suffering for so many in the middle east. Keep them off kilter at all times. Fucked up.

How can anyone wonder why folks in the middle east hate U.S.

 
 
 

Comment by HeywoodR | 2008-03-01 19:18:13

Comment by Simon | 2008-03-01 19:34:51

Except in this case, Clinton may diplomatically be making a difference.

Remember, Neb, problems solved solely with the penis aren’t really solved,just more gasoline to the fire, just ask Bush, or Cheney, or the Obamabots, or Israel — all in a state of decline.

Boy, you ARE dumb.

Did you miss the last 50 years of American history, ever read a book?

Critical thinking, using brains, you just don’t get it, do you?

 
 

Comment by Salo | 2008-03-01 19:18:24

I maintain that Obama is the perfect vehicle, front man, figurehead, speaker for a new cycle of “Post-Racist” American Imperialism.

With the Virtuous Obama as the Chief, America can bomb the snot out of anyone in: Africa, ME, Asia, South America.

I couldn’t think of a better way for the US to revitalize imperialism.

William Gladstone, (19th Century) was a radical opponent of Disraeli’s Imperial adventures in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia–But once he was Prime Minister the savage wars of peace conducted by Gladstone were intensified to a level that Disraeli would have blushed at.

Obama has a very similar personality to Gladstone. Google “Midlothian Campaign”

I’m always suspicious of a

Comment by Salo | 2008-03-01 19:20:32

peacemonger who wants to be President…

 

Comment by Simon | 2008-03-01 19:29:01

With the Virtuous Obama as the Chief, America can bomb the snot out of anyone in: Africa, ME, Asia, South America.

Doesn’t work though, the men who think like this are the stupidest things on earth, this is PNAC you’re describing, or some unsophisticated, delusional piece of crap who really doesn’t understand the greater cultural and military dynamics: PNAC, right, and the neocons, and any other number of foreign nationals who just don’t get it.

The point I’m trying to make is it ’s my impression the Pentagon understand this, the need for others to create cultural chaos out of war, and it’s my impression the Pentagon can play it, rendering it ineffective.

But something greater is at work, obviously, so, you know, we wait.

 

Comment by Cee | 2008-03-01 21:30:26

Salo,

Let me say that I agree with you again.
I just hope that they can’t mold him to become what you suggest.
I do believe they’ll try.
The recent antics in Kosovo and the ME are a step in that direction.

Comment by Simon | 2008-03-01 21:54:52

Salo,

Let me say that I agree with you again.

Cee,

Obama works for the same men who finance Auchi.

Do you really think Obama is capable of independent thinking, of defying people who may have bribed him?

Comment by Cee | 2008-03-02 07:46:26

Salo,

Now you lose me. I see no proof of this.

Comment by Simon | 2008-03-02 10:58:01

Start with rezkowatch.blogspot.com.

At this point, your willful ignorance has become a defensive, not a good sign for you.

 
 
 

Comment by Salo | 2008-03-01 22:10:15

It will be hard for any President to resist.

 
 

Comment by Kathleen | 2008-03-03 13:17:10

Interesting

 
 

Comment by Mr.Murder | 2008-03-01 19:34:13

Tonkin revisited?

Better watch out, other countries there can target naval ships and have in the past.

This was on the burner a while, but the nation 17 hijackers came from has pulled out, one wonders to what extent this would be a plausible item. The Sauds want control of Southern lebanon as the end of the oil spigot for the Trans Arabian pipeline. There’s a major liability hearing for certain Saud interest and their fiscal assets in the west. This is about their money.

Iraq’s hooking up there in Lebanon also with its trans Iraqi pipeline, guarded by a line of permament bases. Having access to two oil spigots there could continue to hide the extent to which peak oil has registered.

There’s some big money involved, follow it.

The money goes ahead of the diplomacy there, and it looks to be facing a radical shift. The extent to which Iran could be part of this, after being further isolated in terms of its ability to communicate via some certain underwater cable networks, should not be forgotten.

Don’t let them hype the one least likely to have shaped control over the coming acts. Too much lies in the balance of power with China for Iran to really consider the west an immediate threat, despite the ongoing nearby war. The boss man is the money man. China is playing every side of this.

The money gets seized for some civil suits, and the Sauds bail out at an alarming pace. Let’s blame the bad guys we need to maintain our traditional stance there. Not saying there isn’t valid cause for concern, but look past the traditional narratives, because people’s hair are probably on fire again.

Comment by Simon | 2008-03-01 19:45:11

The Sauds want control of Southern lebanon as the end of the oil spigot for the Trans Arabian pipeline. There’s a major liability hearing for certain Saud interest and their fiscal assets in the west. This is about their money.

Any time one country tries to take over another in this manner, the efforts of the invader can be voided with a guerrilla war.

It can be nursed to break the invader, ala Russia-Afghanistan, or the US-Iraq. Empire building does not work, your opponent does not need an organized army to defeat you.

But, really, some have a very hard time accepting this fact, even with weapons superiority, the brains simply aren’t there, the ability to recognize and anticipate contingencies, and time after time, they make the exact same mistakes, and they keep losing. After the initial shock and awe, the aggressor is fucked.

Take the bait, again assholes.

Really, you know, we call it diplomacy, and contracts, building cooperative coalitions.

And from the American side, Cheney’s people, IMO, are so stupid, they just don’t get it, think Bolton, and all the other little idiots in that group, specious narcissism at work.

So bomb away they go…and they really are that stupid.

Don’t be surprised by anything.

Comment by Simon | 2008-03-01 19:51:09

Having access to two oil spigots there could continue to hide the extent to which peak oil has registered

Very important, I was thinking this to, as a motivator for much asian-middle east behavior.

More importantly, do Asia and the Middle East have the capability, even the basic infrastructure to convert to another energy based economy, and if they don’t, how will they stay competitive with the US, twenty years down the line?

So, what do they do to slow things down, here, in the US, and how?

 
 
 

Comment by Smilin' Jim | 2008-03-01 19:53:56

Re: DAD-67
Send a tin can to do a man’s job?
The Tomahawks can be launched by subs already on patrol in the Med.
The five inch gun can reach Hezbollah in South Beirut but is unlikely to do anything other than rearrange the rubble left over from the July War.
I am also unaware of any Hezbollah subs.

It’s all in the name.

Comment by Simon | 2008-03-01 19:56:34

They can send in a dog whistle, stand back and laugh.

It’s bait.

 

Comment by Smilin' Jim | 2008-03-01 20:06:22

Anyone know if Hezbollah has any more of those Yingji-82 like the one they fired at the Israelis in the July War?

Gunboat Diplomacy or Remember the Maine?

 

Comment by TeakWoodKite | 2008-03-01 20:24:32

February 28, 2008
hp-845

Washington − The U.S. Department of the Treasury today designated four individuals facilitating and controlling the flow of money, weapons, terrorists, and other resources through Syria to al Qaida in Iraq (AQI), including to AQI commanders

http://www.treasury.gov/press/releases/hp845.htm

Chinese Silkworms suprised the Israelis not so long ago. What other ships are along for the sorti? the Cole has defensive and intelligence platforms as well.

Comment by Smilin' Jim | 2008-03-01 21:21:01

Silkworms are obsolete. The Israelis said that what was fired at them were Yingji-82. I suppose we have countermeasures for these because I am unaware of any Israeli damage.

The “support” vessels, indeed. Are you thinking intelligence gathering, like the Liberty?

Comment by TeakWoodKite | 2008-03-01 21:38:54

Smilin’ Jim:
I stand corrected on the Yingji-82.Thanks.

Yes on the other ships. ala Liberty, and the North Vietnam Ops.

Israeli damage was small, except for the surprise and the ego check. I recall seeing picutes of the boat in question.

 
 
 
 

Comment by Taters | 2008-03-01 19:58:23

This is serious, thanks for posting this Larry.

 

Comment by Taters | 2008-03-01 20:00:31

BTW- This ties in with US religious extremist and end timer Hagee, who is supporting McCain.
Pat has a pieceup today about Hagee.

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2008/02/john-hagee-mcca.html

Comment by Simon | 2008-03-01 20:07:19

BTW- This ties in with US religious extremist and end timer Hagee, who is supporting McCain.

I don’t even look at guys like that anymore, they’re stupid kooks, they’re easily manipulated, they’re tools, like a weapon of meat.

I would think in terms of simplicity, if China is trying to agitate the US through Hezbollah, say, they will appeal to A and B.

So under what conditions will China appeal to A and B, and what control do I have over those factors?

Remember, you’re dealing with key decision makers the world over, little generals, if you will, all just a little smarter than Bush, so their actions can be anticipated.

Remember how smart Bill Clinton was, and his cabinet?

Well, what happened?

 
 

Comment by ckrantz | 2008-03-01 20:03:52

Well, at least the Israelis are realists of a kind.

War and Piece

An American friend who travels on business to the region writes, “Saw your posts and thought I would pass along some info I just received from my contacts in the Golan- they are preparing for another extended war. Local officials are telling them to stock their bomb shelters with 3 weeks of supplies at a minimum. They believe Hezbollah will attack around March 22 as the 40 day mourning period is over for Mughniyeh. Conventional wisdom there is that no amount of US firepower in the Med is going to deter Nasrallah from seeking revenge. We also discussed the possibility of the IDF having to operate a two front battle plan with the continued unrest in the South. I was in Bahrain two weeks ago and met with some colleagues who were just in Beirut. They report the situation in Lebanon is worsening by the day.”

Comment by Taters | 2008-03-01 20:06:19

Ckrantz,
Thanks. And the IDF is still nursing wounds over the last incursion.

Comment by Simon | 2008-03-01 20:13:33

Shame they have to agitate those poor civilians for this nonsense.

Isn’t it?

 
 

Comment by Cee | 2008-03-02 07:48:23

Or someone they will say is Hezbollah. Remember this if something jumps off.

Lebanon exposes Mossad network

June 17, 2006

BEIRUT: Lebanese authorities have broken up an Israeli spy ring whose members have claimed responsibility for a string of killings of leading Hezbollah and Palestinian militants since 1999.

The spies’ confessions, reported extensively in the Lebanese media, provide a rare glimpse into the clandestine battle between the Israeli Mossad intelligence agency and the Hezbollah group and its militant Palestinian allies.
In a bizarre twist, Hussein Khattab, a Palestinian member of the spy ring who is still at large, is the brother of Sheik Jamal Khattab, an Islamic cleric who has allegedly recruited Arab fighters for al-Qa’ida inIraq.

The Israeli network was discovered after the killing last month of two Islamic Jihad officials, the brothers Nidal and Mahmoud Majzoub, in a car bomb blast in Sidon, Lebanon.

Lebanese intelligence officers last week arrested Mahmoud Rafeh, 59, a retired policeman from the Lebanese town of Hasbaya, his wife and two children, and discovered bomb-making materials, code machines and other espionage equipment in his home.

Rafeh confessed to the killings of the Majzoubs and to working for Mossad since 1994.

He also confessed that his cell was responsible for killing three leading Hezbollah commanders since 1999, as well as Jihad Jibril, the son of Ahmad Jibril, the head of the Damascus-based Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command, who died in a car bomb blast in2002.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19494999-601,00.html

Comment by Kathleen | 2008-03-03 13:22:23

Would place the responsibility of many of the terrorist bombings in the middle east and in Europe on the Mossad. They have set up some very twisted operations.

 
 
 

Comment by The Oracle | 2008-03-01 20:10:35

Bush and Cheney do seem to like to start wars in March, don’t they?

Time’s awastin’. The Middle East’s winter is waning. The brutal heat of that arid region is rapidly approaching. March. And Bush and Cheney marching our troops off to another war.

Just like Bush Sr. did the bidding of the Saudi royals back in the early 1990s, Bush Jr. and Cheney finished the task desired by the Saudi royals, ousting and killing Saddam Hussein in Iraq and transforming Iraq from a Middle Eastern power into a failed nation.

Now, only Iran is left. Just like Iraq once had, Iran has a somewhat liberal, progressive, almost secular society, with many Iranian Shia (especially younger Iranians) turned off by the hardcore, insane, old-goat Wahibbist Sunni brand of Islam, which is the “norm” in Saudi Arabia.

If Bush and Cheney start bombing Iran this month (whether preemptively or after an initial Israeli raid), then there will be major blowback, both overseas and potentially even inside the United States.

Which makes Bush’s and Cheney’s “emergency” planning more meaningful:

1) Vancouver Sun: Two weeks ago, Bush and the new arch-conservative Canadian prime minister signed a defense pact, establishing (without an official treaty) that in case of an “emergency” in Canada, U.S. troops can cross the border and help out, and in case of an “emergency” in the United States, Canadian troops can enter the U.S. to help with any policing of U.S. citizens. Hmmmm.

2) Several years ago, Bush and Cheney got Republicans in Congress (along with some arch-conservative Democrats) to pass a law giving Bush (and Cheney) sole control over our nation’s national guard units…in case of an “emergency” arising. Our nation’s governors, all fifty of them, Republicans and Democrats alike, wrote Bush and Cheney to vehemently protest this move, this stripping of their authority over the national guard units in their respective states…in case an “emergency” arises…with “emergency” being loosely defined.

3) Several years ago, Bush and Cheney got their rubber-stamp pals in Congress to allocate $385 million for the building of detention centers around our nation…for immigration and “other purposes,” with “other purposes” left unspecified and open-ended, you know, something maybe involving an “emergency.”

Beware the Ides of March. Beware of Bush and Cheney. Beware of anyone doing the bidding of the Saudi royals, who, or at least some amongst them, might have had more to do with the 9/11 attacks (15 Saudi nationals among the hijackers and Osama bin Laden, a Saudi, being the ringleader) than Bush and Cheney want anyone ever to discover.

Beware the Ides of March. Beware of Bush and Cheney.

Comment by Simon | 2008-03-01 20:20:14

Beware the Ides of March. Beware of Bush and Cheney.

You speak as if Bush and Cheney have power.

They don’t.

This just seems like fear mongering, truth be told.

Those two can’t wipe their own asses without making a mess, much less execute another attempt at some grandiose vision of world dominance.

Which doesn’t mean they wouldn’t try, but, pattern you know, excpet everyone knows now they’re a simplistic joke, no matter how many bombs they have, no repsect.

Jeez, didn’t the utter, catastrophic, humiliating defeat in Iraq and Afghanistan prove embarrassing enough?

Do they suffer from Alzheimer’s?

And notice, you made all those points, but you didnt include ANY analysis, in terms of HOW this would pan out, just some big old daydream, shock and awe.

Not your fault, I know, it’s how they think.

Fantasy.

 

Comment by TeakWoodKite | 2008-03-01 20:53:45

Bush wants to pull the guard of the border this month, I heard Gov. Richardson say several days ago… I agree that the Addingtons’ of the country have spent the last 7 years toward this end. It is difficult to say what day it will be to wake and find Bush has completely pull the plug on the Constitution.

Any excuse to start the ball rolling and have Intraguard folks hanging with Blackwater and Dyncorp telling the National Guard where to go, not sure it is Lebanon or Syria. The Cole seems like a platform to run SP-Ops from. None of the stories I have scanned have what other ships are in attendance.

Comment by Simon | 2008-03-01 21:19:16

It is difficult to say what day it will be to wake and find Bush has completely pull the plug on the Constitution.

Again, haven’t those people shown themselves to be the most incompetent things that ever walked?

Just because that crew dreams of world domination, doesn’t mean that crew can achieve world domination.

Everything they touch, fails.

That’s what happens when a specious narcissist, and all his little specious narcissists, attempt to assert control.

They can’t.

They’re in over their heads.

Imagine Bush and Cheney thinking they could dismantle the CIA.

Only someone unable to realistically assess his own limitations would even THINK he was capable of such a thing.

That crew, as well as Obama, are not capable of critical reasoning, they’re morons, easily beat.

I was observing the posts on Obama today, on MY DD, and the posters were responding to Hillary’s new ads.

And Kerry’s failure to defeat the swift boat attacks had nothing to do with “rapid response,” it had to do with Republican control of the press.

Obama is in front because the press is blowing him, period.

His “rapid responders” were a joke, no wonder the republican men never felt fear, the Obama democrats whine, they don’t fight. But the republicans have nothing special, only a bunch of airhead reporters owned by RNC donors. And it’s horrible propaganda at that, dumbing down the whole country.

Bush won because of press control, Rove’s propaganda was successful because of cooperative, obsequious journalists, NOT intellectual, creative genius. No counter was ever presented, intelligently, the propaganda, as with Obama, is simply sold as truth, and the flimsy shock and awe falls apart, entirely, because bribing the press is all it takes to get a bunch of corrupt, highly unqualified half wit doofuses elected.

They missed it, entirely.

You can’t make cogent winning decisions when you never have to compete.

And the fall out is everywhere.

If TPTB truly want to keep this country competitive, this needs to be addressed.

 
 
 

Comment by Andy | 2008-03-01 20:11:49

OBAMA AND AHMADINEJAD; it seems Obama din’t mind
Ahmadinejad’s invite at Columbia….

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2007/09/obama-defends-c.html

 

Comment by TeakWoodKite | 2008-03-01 21:09:30

Lest we forget Pakistan
U.S. Plan Widens Role in Training Pakistani Forces

That document, titled “Plan for Training the Frontier Corps,” envisions a combination of Special Forces and regular Army troops working with the Frontier Corps in basic marksmanship, infantry skills and counterinsurgency techniques, Defense Department officials said

Robert L. Grenier, a former director of the C.I.A.’s Counterterrorism Center, told a panel of the Council on Foreign Relations last week that any high-profile American military presence in the tribal areas or the neighboring North-West Frontier Province would be “the kiss of death.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/02/world/asia/02military.html?pagewanted=2&hp

 

Comment by joe | 2008-03-01 21:13:57

The Sauds also pulled there ambassador out of Syria. There is something going on here.

But, Larry I know you that you undertand this, the warships can be there solely for inteligence gathering activities. Those destroyers are perfectly suited for sitting off shore and monitoring communications.

How bout we get the Arabs to start selling some more oil since we are helping them out on this one.

Comment by S, Markom | 2008-03-01 21:33:36

I agree about those ships being there for operational reasons. I also think they are situated there to prevent a larger scale war than just Israel and Hezbollah if that were to happen.

Separately I would take Bush at his word that this year he will want to not leave things undone. I have no doubt that Bush will not leave the Iran nuclear situation as is. If he cannot get Iran to comply does anyone doubt he will order hits on known nuclear facilities inside Iran before the year is over?

Comment by Kathleen | 2008-03-03 13:24:46

What about those cable cuts?

 
 
 

Comment by Cee | 2008-03-01 21:19:09

Israel is counting on Hezbollah (or someone who will blame Hezbollah) to act.

We’re being set up.

The U.S. Navy has moved the guided-missile destroyer USS Cole and other ships to the eastern Mediterranean Sea off Lebanon, Pentagon officials said Thursday.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/02/28/us.lebanon/index.html

Iran Nuke Laptop Data Came from Terror Group
By Gareth Porter

WASHINGTON, Feb 29 (IPS) - The George W. Bush administration has long pushed the “laptop documents” — 1,000 pages of technical documents supposedly from a stolen Iranian laptop — as hard evidence of Iranian intentions to build a nuclear weapon. Now charges based on those documents pose the only remaining obstacles to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) declaring that Iran has resolved all unanswered questions about its nuclear programme.

But those documents have long been regarded with great suspicion by U.S. and foreign analysts. German officials have identified the source of the laptop documents in November 2004 as the Mujahideen e Khalq (MEK), which along with its political arm, the National Council of Resistance in Iran (NCRI), is listed by the U.S. State Department as a terrorist organisation.

http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=41416

What happens after another war is started?

Iraq war caused slowdown in the US

Peter Wilson, Europe correspondent | February 28, 2008

THE Iraq war has cost the US 50-60 times more than the Bush administration predicted and was a central cause of the sub-prime banking crisis threatening the world economy, according to Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz.

The former World Bank vice-president yesterday said the war had, so far, cost the US something like $US3trillion ($3.3 trillion) compared with the $US50-$US60-billion predicted in 2003.

Australia also faced a real bill much greater than the $2.2billion in military spending reported last week by Australian Defence Force chief Angus Houston, Professor Stiglitz said, pointing to higher oil prices and other indirect costs of the wars.

Professor Stiglitz told the Chatham House think tank in London that the Bush White House was currently estimating the cost of the war at about $US500 billion, but that figure massively understated things such as the medical and welfare costs of US military servicemen.

The war was now the second-most expensive in US history after World War II and the second-longest after Vietnam, he said.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23286149-2703,00.html

Comment by Simon | 2008-03-01 21:28:04

What happens after another war is started?

Why are you panicking?

Isn’t this a lot of shit?

Given all the things we have heard about over the last 7 years, we will most likely, after the initial bombs fall, lose, won’t we?

Be realistic, you’re only feeding yourselves, here.

I mean, really, get a grip.

This isn’t an Oilers game.

heh.

Comment by Simon | 2008-03-01 21:30:21

Imagine feeding a weak minded president in the way this discussion is trying to, and then imagine that President giving the order to bomb Iran, because he was opsed into it…

Scary, isn’t it?

 
 
 

Comment by Larry Johnson | 2008-03-01 21:30:15

I have no problem with people voicing opinions different from mine. In fact, I encourage it. But I’ll be damned if I will tolerate some clown like GHazeltine, to come on this blog and insult me and those who post here.
One of his most recent messges, which I have taken down, stated:

“Inform yourself please! Chinese silkworms? Folks, if you don’t get outside the BS here, and at the treasury (the treasury?!?!?!) , you are irrelevant. Some people who used to comment here tried to illuminate the discussion. They appear, for the most part, to have given up. So sad.

Regarding assymetric naval warfare, try:

http://www.military.com/opinion/0,15202,95496,00.html
http://www.ausairpower.net/Analysis-Regional-ASCM.html
http://www.marshallcenter.org/site-graphic/lang-en/page-pubs-index-1/page-occpapers-research-1/xdocs/research/pubs/occ-papers/occpapers.htm
http://zenhuber.blogspot.com/

Ah, work. Reading. Thinking. And much more reading and thinking after that. Nah, let’s just comment on Noquarter.”

I have sent G Hazeltine a personal message inviting him to fuck off. He likes Pat Lang. Good. Pat is an old friend. If Hazeltine tried to post a message like the one above on Pat’s site Pat would blow him away as well. If G has something positive to say he’s welcome back, but I have no patience for gratuitous insults.

Comment by Smilin' Jim | 2008-03-01 21:58:50

You pulled it just as I was wishing him well on his stutter.

Did he post it 3 times?

 

Comment by TeakWoodKite | 2008-03-01 22:01:57

I will learn (inspite of myself at times) and I am always in others dept for expanding my horizons.
Many events happen in this world that seem unrelated at 3rd glance. Making sense of them is not easy.

G Hazeltine had a bug crawl up somewhere, (nothing personal) but I did open the links and add them to the 20 other links a day I read.
Down Periscope: Explain how then.

American military chiefs have been left dumbstruck by an undetected Chinese submarine popping up at the heart of a recent Pacific exercise and close to the vast U.S.S. Kitty Hawk - a 1,000ft supercarrier with 4,500 personnel on board.

By the time it surfaced the 160ft Song Class diesel-electric attack submarine is understood to have sailed within viable range for launching torpedoes or missiles at the carrier.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Down_Periscope

Comment by Smilin' Jim | 2008-03-02 00:03:04

So how do we work the “Welcome Aboard” tattoo into the thread?

 

Comment by Simon | 2008-03-02 11:03:41

The American army is never caught unaware, ever.

Ever.

Comment by Simon | 2008-03-02 11:04:57

The American military, “don’t call them the army, goddammit.”

All apologies, I’m trying.

 
 
 

Comment by Simon | 2008-03-01 23:36:15

Ah, work. Reading. Thinking. And much more reading and thinking after that. Nah, let’s just comment on Noquarter.”

I did look at one of the papers, but when one speaks of the divide, the divisions between the US and NATO, hence Europe, nowhere is oil mentioned, and it’s effect on the relations of the differing countries, in terms of future economic progress and competition.

He who has the gold makes the rules, right, and all of the major world economies are oil based.

 

Comment by CK | 2008-03-02 07:48:43

Good first link.
General Van Riper and Millenium Challenge 2002.
The next to the last thing that went through Goliath’s brain was that David was an asymetrical warrior ( terrorist).
Interesting last link also. I wonder if Adm Fallon was indeed “cut out of the decision loop”.

Comment by Simon | 2008-03-02 11:16:53

I wonder if Adm Fallon was indeed “cut out of the decision loop”.

Reading the links G. Hazeltine provided, esp. the first, it reinforced the image of Rumsfeld and Cheney as being isolated, and paranoid, not fully able to recognize, understand and integrate all the differing, conflicting factors needed to succeed, unable to even approach a cohesive decision.

People caught within their own web do not make good decisions, especially when they’re conflicted about corruption.

But can you imagine deliberately fixing a war game, like a Hollywood movie, say, and then using those results to make reality based decisions, simply because your ego can’t resolve a defeat, and you’re unable to problem solve?

This is the US Military, defense of our country, not a beauty contest, fixed so the little girls don’t get their feelings hurt, ie, we’re all winners, aren’t we?

Wow.

 
 
 

Comment by rwc | 2008-03-01 22:07:08

Good luck reading the tea leaves on this little deployment given that this administration seems to be run by Dr.Evil and the Fat Bastard.

And when you examine their track record, it doesn’t inspire fear but a “whats wrong with you?!!” kind of response. They have no core competency, but instead seem to work from that special place that only Dostyevski’s Underground man and the Three Stooges can relate to.

Just look at how Bush and company responds to our tanking economy and collapsing dollar - they send out that bearded road apple from the Fed to flood the market with even more dollars setting off a wave of inflation and sending our country into a recession.

I think the label educated idiot applies quite nicely to the bearded road apple.

Its clear these people have no clue, no real intelligence, no grand strategy, they are just winging it day by day.

Comment by Simon | 2008-03-01 23:38:27

Just look at how Bush and company responds to our tanking economy and collapsing dollar - they send out that bearded road apple from the Fed to flood the market with even more dollars setting off a wave of inflation and sending our country into a recession.

But what is the further effect, the ultimate goal?

 
 

Pingback by Blunt Talk on National Security Readiness : NO QUARTER | 2008-03-02 08:45:04

[...] Johnson adds a somber note in his new article here, “Are We Preparing to Start a New Middle East Fire?”: Let’s not forget that Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate for the assassination last month of the [...]

 

Comment by Simon | 2008-03-02 12:27:27

If Israel does go balls to the wall with Hezbollah, I would expect to see a net gain of Iranian hegemony, further consolidating Arab control of the Middle East.

I’m starting to view this as an organized asymmetric war against Israel, with Israel responding as poorly as the American neocons, ie invoke violence, and Israel WILL respond, like a trained puppy.

IMO, YMMV, but it does give a different perspective, seeing it as whole, instead of a succession of unconnected battles.

It’s like looking at art, trying to see something from different perspectives, cubist, or abstract expressionism.

Comment by Kathleen | 2008-03-03 13:27:52

How is Israel losing here? I don’t see this at all.

 
 

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