Remember Florida? Well, Let Me Tell You, Florida Remembers … [Update]

Rasmussen Reports:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Florida shows McCain attracting 53% of the vote while Obama earns 38%. Last month, amidst talk of a possible Florida revote, Obama had closed to within single digits of McCain. In February, however, Obama trailed McCain by sixteen points.

Howard Dean? Nancy Pelosi? Donna Brazile? Hello? Anybody there? Well, if you are here, you might want to cover your eyes:

Florida Survey of 500 Likely Voters
April 10, 2008

UPDATE THOUGHTS: It’s obvious why Barack Obama doesn’t want a re-vote in Florida. (He’ll get whupped.) But in avoiding that humiliation, he’s infuriating Floridians. Does he really think that — if he’s the general election nominee — that the Floridians will forget all about THE SNOB’S SNUB, and rally to him come November? Especially with a candidate like McCain who appeals to centrists and independents?

Barack Obama and Howard Dean may “win” the Florida “battle” right now. But they’re setting themselves up to lose the DAMN WAR in November!

(This is so patently obvious that I am dumbfounded it isn’t clear as day to Howard Dean, Donna Brazile, and to every superdelegate.)
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Then there are the general election numbers … Barack Obama is “a far weaker candidate” than Hillary Clinton, especially when we look at an Electoral College map:

Writes Richard Baehr for RealClearPolitics, re-published at Yahoo News, in “McCain’s Electoral College Math”:

[...]

Despite all this [the economy, Democratic fundraising, etc.], John McCain is in very good shape for the general election run. The Republicans have landed on the one candidate in their party ideally suited for the race this year, with broad appeal among Democrats and independents, a veteran and war hero during a time of war, a candidate with a reputation for being a straight talker (and not talking down to voters, or outright lying to them), and with real strength in larger swing states. McCain is also benefiting from the fact that the Democrats continue to snipe at each other rather than at him, and each candidate has exposed weaknesses in the other, which become ammunition for McCain in the fall campaign.

McCain opens up the map to a broader Electoral College victory than George Bush achieved in 2000 and 2004, particularly against Barack Obama. Though Bush won 30 states in 2000 and 31 states 4 years later, the loss of any state Bush won in 2000 would have given the election to Al Gore, and the shift of 60,000 votes in Ohio in 2004 would have resulted in a John Kerry victory.

[...]

At the start of this seemingly interminable Presidential campaign, Democrats saw a very favorable Electoral College map. With Hillary Clinton as the likely nominee, Democrats believed they could turn many states from red to blue, including Ohio (20), Florida (27), Iowa (7), New Mexico (5), Nevada (5), Colorado (9), and possibly Arizona (11), Virginia (13), West Virginia (5), and Missouri (11). But Clinton is unlikely to get the nomination.

Barack Obama is a far weaker candidate in many of these targeted states, but in particular in Ohio, Florida., Missouri, Arkansas, and West Virginia. McCain takes Arizona off the table against either nominee. Obama is polling better than Clinton in the competitive southwestern states and Iowa, as well as in Oregon, but trails badly in Virginia, which has elected a string of Democrats in recent years to statewide office. Some Democratic Party officials have written off Florida if Obama is the nominee (in some surveys he trails in the state by 10% or more, though he only trails by 4% in the Rasmussen survey). The Rasmussen survey shows McCain with a 7% lead over Obama in Ohio. Obama lost badly in that state’s Democratic primary (by 10% to Clinton) winning only 5 of 88 counties. Now having insulted rural voters for their attachment to guns and God, the state has become even less friendly turf for him.

The Electoral math looks this way: if Florida and Ohio are safe for McCain, and Virginia and Missouri are too, as they now all appear to be, then McCain has a base of 260 Electoral College votes of the 270 he needs to win. He would need to only win 10 from among the states Bush won last time that are in play this year: Colorado (currently tied), New Mexico (3 point Obama lead), Iowa (4 point Obama lead) and Nevada (4 point Obama lead), and several tempting blue states in which McCain is currently competitive: Michigan (18), Pennsylvania (21), New Jersey (15) Wisconsin (10), Minnesota (10), Oregon (7), and New Hampshire (4), among them. …

Those numbers are so sobering that I think I need a stiff drink.

Actually, what those numbers make me realize is that it’s NOW OR NEVER. We must do all we can in the coming weeks to ensure that Hillary Clinton holds on and wins convincingly.

There is so much that we each can do.