Massachusetts: The Canary in the Coal Mine

The Clinton Team has a message for America after Pennsylvania, and it’s not spin. It’s a serious question every American and every Democrat should be asking: Why didn’t Obama win Pennsylvania?

But after the Obama campaign’s “go-for-broke” Pennsylvania strategy, after their avalanche of negative ads, negative mailers and negative attacks against Sen. Clinton, after their record-breaking spending in the state, a fundamental question must be asked: Why shouldn’t Sen. Obama win?

Good question. Obama can’t win because he’s not a candidate of substance; he’s a candidate of style, and “bitter” blue-collar Dems have enormous economic anxiety, they want a candidate who will address their concerns, and they want a winner.

“Hope” is too vague a promise. In addition to Pennsylvania, there’s another canary in the coal mine.

Superdelegates, listen up: The canary that dropped dead is Obama in Massachusetts: in current match-ups, Obama and McCain are tied there. The Boston Herald’s Michael Graham writes about Obama’s weakness in the Bay State:

[John] Adams noted during the Boston Massacre trial that “Facts are stubborn things.” And it appears that, for the moment, the facts have caught up with Obama here in Massachusetts.

How else to explain the amazing, astounding and unthinkable results of the latest SurveyUSA presidential poll: Republican John McCain is tied with Barack Obama in the Bay State.

The last Republican to win Massachusetts? Ronald Reagan. The last Republican before that? Dwight Eisenhower. Even George McGovern managed to carry Massachusetts in 1972, the one Democratic holdout in Richard Nixon’s 49-state landslide.

Let these facts sink in for a moment. At this date, Obama is tied with McCain in one of the most reliable Democratic states in the country. We’re not talking about swing states here, places like Ohio and Pennsylvania where Obama is under-performing. That’s a whole different concern. We’re talking about a state as blue as the water off Nantucket in August. Now close your eyes and imagine the Republican Convention: grainy black-and-white film of McCain The War Hero, the maverick, the smiling friend of Hispanics. Then GOP operatives roll another video: it’s Obama the liberal, the friend of a terrorist, the elitist in San Fransisco with his chardonnay-drinking friends talking about those poor, bitter white folks who love their guns and God too much to vote for a black man named Barack, and then the garish voice of Rev. Wright screaming “No, no, no, God Damn America!”

Graham continues:

Replace “McGovern” with “MoveOn.org” and you’ve seized the essence of the Obama candidacy. He’s the most liberal U.S. senator, advocating tax increases on the “wealthy” and enjoying the support of Gov. Deval Patrick, Sen. Ted Kennedy, The Boston Globe-Democrat and every 9/11 conspiracy kook in the People’s Republic of Cambridge. He’s got all the players in Massachusetts behind him except the ones who actually vote.

And this is the key line:

While Hillary Clinton soundly beats McCain in Massachusetts in the new SurveyUSA poll, 56 percent to 41 percent, the Obama/McCain number is 48 percent to 46percent, well within the margin of error.

Graham believes the reason for Obama’s weakness is Democrats’ desire to win, “What they want is victory – at virtually any cost.” He suggests that Bay Staters see Obama as too weak to take on McCain. There is some truth to this notion, but when you consider that Obama lost to Hillary in Massachusetts even while he had the entire liberal establishment behind him, it must be something else. What’s happening in Massachusetts is what we’re seeing in Pennsylvania: Obama doesn’t connect with blue-collar voters. It’s not his race or Harvard pedigree; the election of Governor Patrick dispels that idea. It’s the fact that Obama mocks the concerns of working people and his policy proposals are milquetoast next to Hillary’s, particularly in regards to the concerns of blue-collar workers.

Obama talks about “change,” but real voters in the real world want health care and jobs. Obama’s mushy rhetoric reminds many Democrats of the Compassionate Conservative George W. Bush in 2000. Harry Truman once said, “Given the choice between a Republican and someone who acts like a Republican, people will vote for the real Republican all the time.” It’s no wonder then that 32% of Hillary supporters in PA would vote for The War Hero if Obama gets the nomination. Superdelegates, it’s 3 a.m. and your phone is ringing. It’s Massachusetts: the canary is dead.