Hillary, Iraq and Iran
By Larry Johnson on May 1, 2008 at 9:00 PM in Current Affairs
During tonight’s (Thursday) interview with Bill O’Reilly, Hillary was challenged regarding her plan to withdraw US forces from Iraq with Bill insisting that this would “show weakness” to Iran. I disagree with Hillary on one minor point–she said “we cannot win a military victory” in Iraq. We can, but. . .and it is a gargantuan but. We can achieve a military victory if we deploy over 450,000 troops and institute a draft. Well, that ain’t going to happen. And Hillary understands this. I would have said, “Unless we institute a draft and deploy close to half a million of our troops to Iraq, we cannot achieve a military victory.” Having briefed Senator Clinton I know she understands this nuance.
Bill O’Reilly is wrong that a withdrawal of US forces will be seen as “weakness” by Iran. Iran actually welcomes the U.S. presence in Iraq and the actions of U.S. troops targeted against Sunni extremists and Al Qaeda. Why? Because Sunni extremists and Al Qaeda also represent a threat to Iran. Iran also is riding our coat tails in Afghanistan. Iran fears the Taliban as much as we do. The more Taliban we kill in Afghanistan the safer Iran feels.
Our current offensive against Moqtada al Sadr’s Mahdi Army militia also works in the long term interest of Tehran. Mookie Sadr is more of a Shia Arab and less susceptible to the temptations of Tehran. The Iranians are Persian. So far Iran favors helping strengthen and secure the government of Maliki. Guess who we are helping strengthen and secure? DING DING DING!! Winner, winner, chicken dinner. We’re actually helping Iran.
Truth be told, Iran tends to prefer we hang around long enough to kill the Sunni and Al Qaeda extremists. Once we go Iran will have its hands full. Their ability to control the situation on the ground in Iraq will be diminished, not enhanced.
Part of the current game in Iraq concerns upcoming elections. Here’s a critical observation form Pat Lang:
The intensive pushing and shoving among the Shia politico-military factions continues with the “Iraq Security Forces” (Dawa/Badr/Hakim/ISCI) seeking to leverage American support for enough power to neuter Moqtada al-Sadr and his band of merry Mahdists (or Mahdinistas if you prefer) before the putative provincial elections in the Autumn. (maybe there won’t be elections if the neutering does not go well)
The big difference between having U.S. forces in Iraq and U.S. forces in Afghanistan is that in Iraq we are still viewed as occupiers. We lack the political will to implement a draft in the United States to build up our military size. We lack the economic strength to fund such an effort. And, if we started tomorrow, we are at a minimum of two years away from being able to field trained divisions.
Hillary understands these realities and recognizes that in drawing down our forces we are securing some critical breathing space for rebuilding the military power squandered by the Bush/Cheney regime.
