Donkey My Ass Party

The science is in. And it favors what many of us have been saying and predicting for such a long time. Hillary is the strongest candidate. By far. According to an astrophysicist Neil Degrasse Tyson, if the election were held today Hillary beats McCain and Obama loses to McCain. Period.

Vote By Numbers

This conclusion comes not from wishful thinking but from a new method of analysis on the statistics of polls that has been accepted for publication in the journal Mathematical and Computer Modeling. The authors, J. Richard Gott III, a professor at Princeton, and Wes Colley, a researcher at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, are not political scientists. They are astrophysicists. And one of the tasks of scientists is to clarify the apparent complexity of the universe by using the language of mathematics.

Essentially the method is taking into account the median results of the polls a few weeks before an election. Using this method, Gott and Colley were able to pick the correct result in 49 of 50 states in 2004.

Here’s what they discovered: in swing states, the median result of all the polls conducted in the weeks prior to an election is an especially effective predictor of which candidate will win that election — even in states where the polls consistently fall within the margin of error.

To make his prediction of the outcome of the 2008 race Tyson followed the same rules established by Gott and Colley. If no poll had been take 6 weeks prior to an election or if the median poll is a tie, the win was given to the party that won it four years before. Real Clear Politics was chosen as the central database from which to make comparisons. What Tyson discovered is instructive.

We begin with the Kerry states. The states that in 2004 were won by Kerry. And we use his 251 electoral votes as a starting point for determining which states would be normally Democratic. And this is where Hillary’s case is exemplified. Because the numbers bear out the case she made on the campaign trail.

In Ohio, for example, Mr. McCain beats Mr. Obama two polls to one. But Mrs. Clinton beats Mr. McCain two polls to nothing. So Ohio, which Mr. Kerry did not win in 2004, would go into Mrs. Clinton’s column, giving her an additional 20 electoral votes.

Now take this all in. If Hillary were to bring Ohio into the fold, suddenly there is a number jumping right out at us that No one can ignore. That magick 271 electoral vote total qualifies someone for the Presidency. And who would that be? Hint: It ain’t Obama.

In Florida, Mr. McCain beats Mr. Obama three polls to zero. But Mrs. Clinton shuts out Mr. McCain two to zero. Because Florida went to President Bush four years ago, Mrs. Clinton grabs 27 more electoral votes.

Nice little 27 electoral vote buffer here. No wonder Hillary kept mentioning just how important Florida is. I wonder about the results in Michigan?

In Michigan, Mr. McCain beats Mr. Obama three polls to zero. But the median poll between Mr. McCain and Mrs. Clinton is a tie. Mr. Kerry won Michigan in 2004, so Mrs. Clinton gets to keep it. But Mr. Obama loses its 17 electoral votes.

What’s that? Obama loses Michigan? I thought he was awarded 59 delegates from there because some idiots used their psychic powers to determine that the people of Michigan really would have voted for him had he been on the ballot. Hmmmmm…. Seems perhaps those DNC fools might have been wrong after all.

Tyson continues to apply this examination to all of the states and his results are stunning. Indeed, Obama does better than Kerry. He beats his efforts by a total of ONE whole electoral vote. Better than Kerry, but not by much. Not much indeed. And frankly his accomplishment is easily forgotten when we take into consideration that he is just another loser anyway.

But what of Hillary?

When you complete this exercise for each state, Mr. Obama picks up Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico, three states that went Republican in 2004, but he also loses Michigan and New Hampshire, two states that Mr. Kerry had won. Mrs. Clinton loses the previously Democratic states of New Hampshire and Wisconsin, but she would nab 57 electoral votes from the Republicans by winning Florida, New Mexico, Nevada and Ohio.

If the general election were held today, Mr. Obama would win 252 electoral votes as the Democratic nominee, while Mrs. Clinton would win 295. In other words, Barack Obama is losing to John McCain, and Hillary Clinton is beating him.

In the end Tyson reaches the same conclusion that many of us have. The conclusion that has left many of us scratching our heads in disbelief.

Two questions arise in the face of this result. Whom should the Republican candidate prefer to run against to maximize his party’s chances of retaining the White House? And what does it say of the Democratic delegate selection system when its winner would lose the presidency if an election were held today, yet its loser would win it?

It really doesn’t take an astrophysicist to figure this stuff out because many of us know it intuitively. It’s Presidential Politics 101. If you want to win an election then you must compete in the swing states. And you must win there. Hillary has proven that she not only understands how to win, she has the capacity TO WIN.

It might not have taken an astrophysicist to figure this out. But I am very glad that an astrophysicist did figure it out. And prove it. It kinda makes the rest of us not look so dumb after all.