Why the Polls Are Skewed Towards Obama
By Imv on June 21, 2008 at 4:15 PM in Barack Obama, Delegates, Democratic National Convention, Electability, Electoral College
Imv is my username, but you should know that I am a delegate for Sen. Hillary Clinton to August’s Democratic National Convention in Denver. I reside in “Red State America.”
The algorithms used by pollsters are beyond the vast majority of voters. Most people take polls at face value. WRONG.
Pollsters massage their numbers based on what they believe about the electorate. Are pollsters taking into effect PUMAs? I don’t believe they are for two reasons: 1) their state results skew unrealistically towards BHO and are out of sync with the national polls 2) almost all analysts believe PUMAs will return to the fold.
The only polls I trust right now are Rasmussen’s. He mentioned changing this methodology after BHO self-nominated.
[Ed. Note: See TexasDarlin's "Rasmussen: McCain Takes Florida" on June 20.]
Here’s a simple example.
Suppose the pollster believes the country is split as follows, based on voting patterns over the last few years:
D – 40, R – 30, I – 30
But, we know between a third and half of Hillary’s voters won’t support BHO. Many, like me, have left the Dem Party. If polled, I would call myself an independent. And, the Dems left will overwhelmingly support BHO because so many Hillary voters aren’t Dems anymore. See the problem? The models over-represent Dems and undercount Independents.
Let’s say, to make are example simple, that 10 out of the 40 Ds become Is. And, let’s assume, for simplicity, that all Ds are voting for BHO, all Rs are voting for JM, and the Is are split evenly. The electorate would look like this:
D – 30, R – 30, I – 40
That would give each candidate 50% each. But, the pollsters’ model has 40% Ds. So, they will poll and/or crunch their numbers accordingly. Let’s see what happens when the pollsters take our results and adjust for their bias.
O– 40, Mc – 30, I – 30 (split evenly) = O – 55, Mc – 45
The poll will show Obama with a slam-dunk (which is GREAT PR) while really the state is tied. I’ll bet even Obama’s internals are skewed like this, since they seem to be blithely assuming PUMAs will come home.
How many pollsters are using pre-primary demographics? Remember, two of the most reliable voting blocs are women and older voters = PUMAs.
I think the question is worth asking.
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I agree. In the 1980s I published a computer program and self-help book for doing polls. I included a method for the pollsters to create and manipulate sub-group cross-tabs. I asked my users to send me examples of their work for my library. What I got back make me want to take my program off the market. Many were using my software to generate the results their boards and members wanted to hear.
People should listen to you. You are right on target.
the pollsters are in business so they skew for business. why would obama use poll numbers that don’t let him look good? simple, really! who is paying for the polls should be the first question and what standards did he use the second. what’s his or her history the 3rd. “figures don’t lie, but liars figure.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IVuASxJKH88
“The senator” [Obambi] “has confirmed that he plans to utilize hip-hop artists to educate American people, should he be elected as the Democrat candidate and then make it as President.”-Jan 10 2008
What a creepy flashback. Talk about pandering to the AA community.
I know this is off topic here but …
RE: Larry Sinclair NPC on June 18th there’s a very good quality video post of the FULL NPC and I think it’s worth viewing.
http://www.larrysinclair.org/press.html
That page is gone or the link is wrong. So you think it may be posted somewhere else? I’d really like to see that.
Try this, the link to video is posted at the top of the page. http://www.larrysinclair.org/
The LS video format is
Windows Media Audio V9 Standard
64 kbps, 44 kHz, 16 bit, Stereo (CBR)
http://www.larrysinclair.org/download/press.wmv
Elise, here’s some talk radio on the LS NPC June 18, they’re in listening order.
PT 1)www.youtube.com/watch?v=g04HHlwllHw
PT 2)www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLA6YJ4Dc9Q
PT 3)www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHXd5lo3mV8
PT 4)www.youtube.com/watch?v=wIGPNOKMJiE
Of the dozen “closest” friends and relatives that I see and talk with daily or weekly……
10 of them were Hillary primary voters
2 are Republicans.
Of that 10, indeed 5 of them have told me they will vote for BHO!!
Of the remaining 5 only ONE has said she will vote for McCain.
2 will write in Hillary. Oh and one of the R’s told me she would have voted for Hillary. It was BILL she had a problem with.
so that’s the picture from MY neck-o-the-woods
If I listen to the MSM, I have the impression that Hillary’s determined ‘bitter’ voters are only a few and far inbetween.
I don’t think anyone really know how many we are.
I think you’re right, but I think they are all underestimating us.
I know this, too — if they think they are demoralizing us or fooling us into thinking most of us are coming around to Obama, they’re crazy. I don’t care how many or how few are voting for him; I know that I will never vote for him. (I watched Iron Jawed Angels this afternoon, so I am even more pissed than usual, especially at the Party Formerly Known as Democratic.)
I love the “Party Formerly Known as Deomcratic”. Do I have your permission to use it?
Messy Marcy says to tell you that you have her permission to use it as much as you want. She’s been trying to spread it far and wide herself, so go for it.
P.S. She hadn’t noticed your request, and she’s in the middle of feeding her herd of spoiled dogs. So, she asked me (her sister) to tell you she is elated you want to use it.
Thank her for me and I will spread it around.
Twisting and torquing to generate the info desired.
Spinning to suit the purpose.
HOW MUCH DO THEY PAY TO TWEAK THE POLLSTERS & RESULTS TO THEIR FAVOR?
I think pollsters don’t massage numbers to please a customer, but that like all humans, pollsters have perceptions that seek to validate. Polling uses statistical methods that work very well for scientists because their populations are controlled, bu for uncontrolled populations, the method is not so perfect. Hence, the pollster must make assumptions about the populations, such as, 30 percent of the population describes itself as independent. Those assumptions when correct, will yield very good results, but if the assumption is wrong, the result will be skewed, or completely wrong, as we saw in the NH primary. When pollsters get results that contradict their perceptions, they will massage the numbers to validate their views.
UNTRUE! I worked in market research for quite awhile, and even worked for the “original” Gallup!
Prior to Gallup I worked at a now defunct shop as a coding supervisor…We had 4 columns of codes to accommodate aprox. 40 answers. As we were doing the work, the word came down to “collapse” the 4 columns of answers down to TWO to SAVE MONEY. And this was a famous credit card company!!
They were cutting back on accurate coding of questions to save a buck. I was responsible for combining the various codes, which rendered the final results absolutely meaningless…
Needless to say, I left this outfit shortly thereafter to become project manager at Gallup…(when the founder George was still walking the halls at Bank St. in Princeton.)
My post is in reference to the “don’t massage the numbers to please a customer” assumption…
In another job, at US Testing Co., I was subjected to the displeasure of a client who’s product test with consumers “wasn’t coming out right.”
I’m a statistician (retired)and I was hired by a neighboring city to compile the results of a survey they had done on victimization. That was back in the day of IBM and cards.
There was a question; have you been the victim of car theft in the last year?
The results showed 20% of the population. I called the person in charge of taking the survey and asked if he was sure about the results. After he did some checking, he called me back and said there hadn’t been a place on the survey for theft of car parts so they had added it to the car theft column.
What a joke. But the worst part was when I explained the mistake to the representative from the DA’s office, he didn’t want me to change it because the federal grant money depended on the crime rate.
A few months ago I read the results of an MSNBC poll on the election in an article written by Chuck Todd. There was one sentence in the article saying the poll had been weighted to include one hundred more African Americans than the percentage of the population.
I sent him an email asking why they had done that because he didn’t offer an explanation in the article. I never heard from him so… huh?
I agree. First of all, I think the perception that we are few is correct.
I think there are many more people who just simply won’t vote for him than speak up or are interestd.
Second of all, we just need to keep the real issue in front of people. That is that he is unqualified.
His inexperience daily speaks for itself.
We keep pressing the same point. He’s unqualified.
We’re not pressing the untruth. We’re pressing the truth.
They said that Hillary “couldn’t win” and yet state after state turned out for her right up until the very end. You can’t tell Americans how to think and for whom to cast their ballot. Do you remember trying to convince people “not to waste their ballot on Nader?” How arrogant I was when I thought that I was entitled to tell those people how to vote! I don’t ask and I don’t tell unless asked. Former GOP friends are stunned that I am voting for McCain. Stunned that I have donated money to his campaign.
Thats not what the natives say
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IVuASxJKH88
No they don’t know who the PUMAs are — because they really don’t have a clue how to identify us.
Also, there are a huge number of Republicans who would have voted for Hillary if given the chance in November. Again I don’t believe the pollsters have a clue about how to identify this group.
There are the loyal Democrats who just vote “D” because they haven’t investigated the candidates.
However, I do believe that the last primaries were a clear indication about the trend or opinion of the democratic voters about Obama. There was a clear message from most of the states (the Odd Ball idiots in Oregon — don’t count) the message is that as people get to know Obama they DO NOT like Obama. And then he insults the voters by calling them racists — most people will NOT forget nor forgive Obama’s slander of whole states.
It is a very long time until 4 November and people will get a closer look at Mr&Mrs Obama and I doubt that he is going to impress enough voters to win.
I remember Carter, McGovern, Dukakis, Gore and Kerry — and Clinton. One winner!! Clinton — people liked Clinton because he connects with us — he knows where most Americans are coming from. He is a moderate– and most Americans are moderates.
Perhaps the D & R & I — are meaningless — the moderates need to be identified by some way other than by party.
Right now I have more in common with my moderate Republican friends than with my former democratic friends (Obama supporters).
No matter how you slice it, Obama is going DOWN!!
We won’t know if the polls are accurate until November.
Meanwhile, as an independent voter, I’d like to welcome ex Democrats who have come to see, in the words of Zell Miller, that their party is divided between two wings: the far left, and the far, far left…
I first hated Obama for praising Reagan, so I have no love of Zell Miller, or right-leaning politicians, and I am not going “Independent” especially since in my state I’ll get to vote JOHN KERRY out of office in the primary (go Ed O’Reilly!).
So I guess I’m gonna call myself a “Downticket Dem” this go around.
I encourage all to check and make sure their state doesn’t have primaries where they could help kick out bad Dems before switching to Independent.
tooo late for some of us! WE had had enough and changed our party a few weeks ago!
toooooooooooooooooo late
so sorry – but I feel cleansed
and I do know my guy Heath Schuler DID stuck by Hillary so he’s good as gold come NOV. Can’t say as much for the Dem GOV (she reminds me of Claire Mc) I Forget her name.
but hey we were FUMING!!
Men are so clueless sometimes
but I don’t understand how the women for Obama didn’t see this coming?
Most women can usually pick up on other women’s moods a lot faster than most men. It’s still puzzling. What strong Obamist Barakoolaide!
I mean 4 REAL – ugh
I am so happy to think that you would vote against Kerry – it pleaseth my heart mucho to mix up my language stuff. I have really learned to hate that sob and I so hated to vote for him. I can still remember his limp, useless supplicating prayerified hands before he conceded. He (along with so many many of them) didn’t give a damn about any voter anywhere. You could tell that day that we are just the great unwashed masses to him. To hell with him. and the rest of them…
The polls didn’t settle down until the middle of the primaries.
We’re in Open Field territory again.
But here is big distinction.
We’re pretty immune to the Poll Story.
I’m not so emotionally invested.
Now? I’ll take the RCP average and be content.
They won’t have any way to measure those dissatisfied by the FISA and Public Financing backtrack. They are unlikely to self identify because they will bring down on themselves the anger of their dogmatic former associates. So. November is the only accurate measure. That and the fund raising numbers.
Their methods of measuring data are incorrect, meaning the algorithm is wrong, or is being used incorrectly, tehy are not open to that possibility.
Meanwhile reality just keeps chugging along, the OTHER way, with those doofuses falling further and further behind, in a downward spiral, called “circling the drain.”
I believe the algorithm they use, though, is the proper measurement for “mediocre gay yuppie cartoon narcissist,” obtuse math men, to the end.
Thank you for this, once again banging my head against the wall, all to proved sane. I always knew polls were skewed. Even in good times, I basically do not trust being told what is what. I am normally very cynical anyway, but with BO in the mix and all that has occurred this is no surprise. Great work.
The Polls have not factored in National pride.
I wished they would ask “Do you want a first lady who does not share your National Pride?”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HOSVi7MIa3c
Wow…thanks. That video gave me chills. What a great country we live in.
At the very start of this campaign season my home received about two telephone polls a week from the Democratic Party.
The majority were ’shaped’ polls allowing answers similar to the old legal saw, “Answer the question, yes or no. Have you stopped beating your wife.” All would lead to the logical conclusion they wanted from me. Obama.
At the time, two of my daughters were Caucus chair and vice-chair of the local Dem caucus. When one married and moved cities, the calls changed over to her phone instead.
My round about point is that the pollsters were given phone lists for known Dems so that their findings would be pre-slanted.
Pretty cool huh?
9 out of ten think so…
Great post. Thanks for the lesson.
Boy are the polls skewed towards Obama. Yesterday on MSNs home page it stated Obama had a 15 point lead over McCain nationally but when I went to http://www.gallup.com it showed Obama 46% and McCain 44%. What the hell do they think they’re doing!!!
Two different polls you idiot.
Deliberately obtuse?
Why doesn’t this work?
Too stupid to understand.
Like shooting ducks in a barrel, it’s so easy, the canned moron hunt.
Unfortunately, the troll science boys think like the people running our country, they can’t figure out why they can’t win, despite their myriad methods of junk kook science.
Dr Cretin Troll, phd…
Also his user name insults people with disabilities – no enlightened person uses the term “retard”.
And “repuke” is also juvenile.
God knows what these people stand for – it’s not progressive values, that much is painfully evident.
So this is the kind of “voter” the Democratic party gave up millions of women for. An immature nasty kid. Who will in all probability won’t make it to a polling place in November because he can’t bum a ride (if he even remembers what day it is).
lolol! Oh, and I’m sure all the nasty kidz will dig deep to donate to the Dem Party.
They are juvenile, your anger, and mine, feeds them.
Just the way it is, their MO, so, how do you handle it?
Anyone ADULT that juvenile is simply not an equal…
The 15 point lead poll (which I only heard about today) is the Newsweek poll. But Newsweek has been attacked from all quarters as being so totally biased in favor of Obama so I won’t put much stock in that poll. I believe the Gallup and Rasmussen polls. Rasmussen was also the first to note the turnabout in Florida and tie it to the “drill for oil” position. They seemed to be on target for most of the year. There is still a substantial portion of the electorate that remains “undecided” or has openly expressed that they like neither candidate (Obama/McCain). Gallup’s most recent poll gives Obama a 2 point lead and has not yet shown “the bounce.” The Newsweek poll is being written up as the first poll to show “the bounce” after Hillary’s suspended campaign. But polls, even if they are wrong, do influence some people when the stats are used in headlines. Folks want to “be with a winner.” I expect my Sunday morning paper (very very biased to Obama) to have a screaming headline about the Newsweek poll. The one thing the talking heads have agreed on: it’s been two weeks since Hillary’s suspended campaign was announced and … no bounce. Looks like the Newsweek poll is “just in time.” If the other two polls fall in with that next week, then “the bounce” has arrived. If not, then the undecided voters will continue to scare the bb’s out of both parties. No matter what, the media manipulation goes on and on.
There was an MSNBC poll a few months ago and written up in an article by Chuck Todd. He said they “weighted” it to African Americans. I sent an email asking why this was done and didn’t receive a coherent answer.
Polls do influence outcomes if they are tweaked enough and that has been the intention since the beginning of this campaign. I wouldn’t give you two cents for any poll conducted by Newsweek, MSNBC, CNN or the NYT. Zogby polls have been outright dishonest and the pollster’s son is an advisor for Obama. Survey USA has been closer than most and they have a site for their methodology.
They did that to Hillary as well. They gave the poll that Obamuer was winning not the other 5 that Hillary was winning out of 6.
Polls are so easily skewed. If you look at some of their demographics, it gets pretty obvious. Newsweek for example, putting Obama 15 points ahead, their sample was only 22% Republican. Well duh, if you survey mostly Democrats, I’d hope the Dem candidate would come out ahead.
Another thing to watch for is likely voters versus registered voters. Turnout in this country is terrible, 50-60 % if we’re lucky. The youth vote is a good example of this. They might favor a candidate by 75% but of less then 25& of them actually show up to vote, that’s not a realistic meassurement of who will get elected.
I ran through Obamas number yesterday. It seems that he has been collecting a lot less money then he use to. The more likely he was becoming the nominee the less money he got.
At this point he is about even with John McCain. But he is spending 50% more money then McCain does. BOBO is really short on money.
I always believed that the rise of this guy has to do with a lots of GOP help. I guess the DNC could not figure this out. They thought they had a cash cow on their hand when in fact it was just a one trick donkey.
Correction:
Democracy For America and the Dean Boys couldn’t figure this out.
DFA tapped Obama in 04 as one of Dean’s Dozen, but I believe that was just state legislators to watch.
Somebody else, I believe, picked Obama to run, knowing he was already pre-approved by the far left, even though he’s a lot more conservative than Dean originally thought.
I think Dean and company got hoisted by their own petard, so to speak.
the dnc is also short of money. if they are so hot and getting all this power, where are the corporations? standing on the sidelines i think. they’ shove some money at them as they always do, but i wonder if he’ll have money flowing like fresh water.
Why do you Obamabots, with names insulting to the Web site host, even bother to show up here? Thought you had this thing all locked up – why are you bothering here? You don’t need us, or our votes, right?
Is this your way of winning friends and influencing enemies?
I pray you will grow up one day.
It’s a tactic called being “deliberate obtuseness.”
What they dont know is they’re really that STUPID, not deliberately obtuse, at all.
Past that point, they get frustrated, begin to understand they’ve been dissed, and then attempt a hack, to remind everyone a math man is to be feared.
Obama Lies Again,
Can we take Obama’s word for anything?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ZIR4nTAZaY
At least Larry Sinclair was honest about his foibles. Obama is a spineless liar.
No, sorry. Your assumptions are incorrect here. First of all, Obama now leads McCain by 12 points among Independents. It’s difficult to overstate the importance of a stat like that. And second of all, you write:
Uh, we know no such thing. According to all the latest polls I’ve seen, very few of Hillary’s voters are still staying away from Obama; why do you think he has opened up such a substantial lead on McCain, both in national polls and in state electoral analyses? The vast majority of HRC voters will come home to Obama; most already have. Obama already has a clear lead over McCain among female voters and it has only been a couple weeks since HRC endorsed him. Stop kidding yourselves that there is some huge PUMA vote out there. There isn’t. You guys are an entertaining fringe group with little to no real electoral relevance.
Open your eyes!
Obama’s Boat is sinking!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ryLJ8YsRU4E
Newsweak’s polls are notoriously unreliable and crappy. Wake up sucker!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_98FyPdNFA
Whew. The delusions never stop.
You have NO CLUE what you’re talking about. There’s already 200+ Democratic anti-BO organizations in “Just Say No Deal” with THOUSANDS upon THOUSANDS (if not millions) of members. I suggest you wake up before November and start your meds because you have a rude awakening coming.
The delusions are what they have. He is not what they thought they were getting, is he? One by one is abandoning all of the positions that attracted (if, in fact positions were what attracted them in the first placed). It is easier to be a Clinton supporter because her positions are the same today as they were the day she announced. She is the same principled Senator, wife, mother, neighbor and friend. She hasn’t sold out any supporters or backers. Each of the people who voted for her knows that in 2012 she will be back with the same strong reasoning and habits that she demonstrated this election cycle. Imagine knowing you backed a phoney?
The poll that I’ve seen (the WSJ one a week or so ago) had a breakdown of voters and who they were voting for, starting with male/female.
However at the end, they had Hillary supporters. Supposedly 61 percent of Hillary supporters were voting for Obama and only 19% were voting for McCain. So the article went on to state that the “evidence” didn’t show that Hillary voters were leaving Obama. However, 19 plus 61 adds up to 80%. There was another 20% they didn’t mention. Now, obviously that 20% was either undecided or they are voting for someone else or they aren’t voting. Being undecided isn’t unusual unless your are a PROVEN primary voter! This usually means a highly committed voter who isn’t unsure because he/she hasn’t been following the news, for heaven’s sake! But, whatever — if you add 20% to 19% –you can see that close to 40% of Hillary’s voters are NOT voting for Obama!
The MSM likes to twist these things around because either a) they think we are braindead or b) THEY are really braindead.
not every Hillary voter registered with PUMA, but they’re still commmited to voting McCain.
we don’t all need to validate our beliefs by “joining”, like the Obamatard cult memebers do.
I am one of 18 million that will never, ever vote for Barry!
i am 1 of 18M changed to ind. will never vote obama and neither will my husband and friends. never a fraud. GO PUMAS
This comment is typical: you seem to be saying that all 18 million of HRC’s voters changed to Indy and will never vote Obama. This is clearly false. First, most of HRC’s voters are *already* voting for Obama. Second, most Independents are now voting for Obama.
Try to live in the real world.
Clearly, you’re false.
About half of Hillary supporters are *not* voting for Obama in November. But the vast majority of their voices are being COMPLETELY ignored by the MSM because our outright refusal to support Obama and the Democratic party makes them look really bad.
We’re being treated about the same as Hillary was during the primary. The Obama MSM is trying *desperately* to marginalize the numbers of Hillary-or-McCain voters. But it’s DAMNNNN hard for Obama and his spawn to dismiss the voices of almost 18 MILLION Hillary voters. Not to even mention the numbers of former Obama supporters – who are now experiencing “buyer’s remorse” and will not vote for Obama in November.
The great beauty in this situation is that it’s not even going to take the majority of Hillary supporters to give McCain the White House in November. It will only take a fraction of us to shut Obama out on Election Day. And five months will definitely not be enough time for Obama, his minions and the DNC to erase nor reverse the damage they’ve caused. Bush and his crew stole the White House EIGHT YEARS ago – and the wounds on the American people are STILL fresh. Obama, the DNC and the Democratic party will be feeling the repurcussions and backlash from their grave mistakes during the 2008 primary for a LONG time.
Not to mention when a pollster calls my house I have an involuntary reaction of screaming %$@# and slamming down the phone whenever BO’s name is mentioned. My guess is that my phone call is either noted as being an affirmative response to BO’s candidacy or that I wasn’t at home. (I understand the logic of both calculations, believe me.)
There have been three interesting articles in the last week, all posted on noquarter I think are relevant.
The first covered a Wisconsin Hillary delegated who stated publicly she would vote for McCain. She was stripped of her position.
The second about an outspoken Tennessee DNC member who has not endorsed Obama and called into question a possible affiliation with terror groups.
The third came from a news story in Houston, TX. The Vice-Chair of the Texas Democratic Party has threatened to give her super vote to Hillary Clinton. She has formerly endorsed Obama, but when she announced she would be campaigning for the Chair position and received a call from Obama’s headquarters to the effect she would lose her delegate status if her campaign continued, she said she would vote for Hillary.
The first two will probably be voting for McCain in the GE and the point I am trying to make; if members of the DNC are open in their opposition to Obama’s nomination, the Party is in deep trouble and there is no way to spin that.
Why has it been necessary for the DNC to hold press conferences asking for Party Unity? Why has it been necessary to hold “Unity Rallies”? Why was the subject of unity brought up in Obama’s meeting with the Congressional Black Caucus?
Others on this blog making comments about polls and how many of Hillary’s supporters have fallen in line are; 1) closing their minds to the truth. 2) actively working with the Obama campaign in an effort to discourage dissent or 3)are people who get some type of pleasure creating controversy.
Most of Hillary’s supporters who are now supporting Obama JUST WANT A DEMOCRAT IN THE WHITE HOUSE – that’s ALL that matters…a decmocrat, ANY democrat. Apparently, ethics and morality and fair play have NOTHING to do with it. What is WRONG with these people? Do they feel as if they HAVE to vote for a democrat – no matter how immoral, sneaky, sleazy, racist, America-hating, underhanded and lying he is? Are Americans THIS scary…this STUPID?
What scares me is that BO is counting on the illusion of his being capable of winning as the only hurdle he has to overcome. He’s going to steal the election through diebold and dead voter registrations so all he has to do is make it feel plausible that he ends up the victor.
When you have pollsters and the media saying you are the victor even though you continue to lose state after state and millions won’t vote for you it’s scary. We’re going to have to protest in the streets in order to overcome the false narrative that BO is a plausible victor anywhere. They have him winning in FL? I don’t know how they post their numbers with a straight face.
Good points, ann.
It didn’t work in New Hampshire, tho, did it?
I think that was their test run…it was creepy being there (with the Edwards campaign) when they pulled us from one town because they said Obama’d already “won” it—when I saw almost all local support for Hillary. The Ron Paul and Obama people were imported.
You are so right, Ann. That’s what they did with Bush in the 2004 election. We have to remember that the Diebold threat is out there and that the MSM is corrupt. Look what happened in Lake County, Indiana. If Obama is truly a Trojan Horse — sent by the corporate thugs to take over the Democratic Party, as I fear -we should be able to tell this by seeing if they really turn on McCain or if they continue cheerleading for Obama. Touting polls showing Obama ahead while ignoring those that show McCain ahead will be another sign.
This is all so depressing.
The Obama kids were out today here in Las Cruces, NM “register” voters. As I walked into one store I was asked if I was registerd. I said YES, and added that I had “de-registered” as a Democrat and wouldn’t be voting for Obama, whom I called fascist.
A few minutes later, when I left, he was gone…LOL! I like to think I shocked him into leaving…
Ann, I agree. The fix has probably been in for years. The Talking Pigs have evidently been aware of the intended outcome for months which contributed, no doubt, to their irrational frothing that HRC quit the race. She could never win. Why didn’t she just drop out? God@mn it! She was ruining a spectacular script with the Authorian black knight ready to save the country, save the world, save the human race.
My fear is that there’s nothing we can do to stop it.
Spot on, ann.
ann – Obama is also going to win by playing the race card. On Friday, in front of an untelevised crowd, he told them that the republicans ‘would play the race on him’. See…he’s already started using the race card by bringing it up himself, just like he used on Hillary. He WILL win the election by using the race card, just mark my words.
Nope.
The race card(s) won’t be enough to get Obama the White House in November. The race card will be his built-in excuse for losing – as opposed to his gross lack of national political experience and his scummy connections and “friends.”
Racial self-pity won’t get Obama anywhere in November.
I wonder what percentage of Dems have reregistered as Independents and are still being polled as Dems? Has anyone heard about how many members the Dem Party has lost?
Hillary made me want to vote Democrat. Now I want to be a “Republican for a day” thanks to Obama.
This Dem is NOT coming home.
I will NOT support the (un)Democratic? Party FASISM!
O=Zero
Can I trade this nominee for what’s behind door 1?
Thanks for the link! From the article:
The letter is mentioned in a New York Times article which discusses how the Obama campaign is trying to control Barack Obama’s “image”.
…In the letter they accuse aides of the Barack Obama campaign of misleading them, complain that he offers them less access than President Bush and only partially honors his agreement to admit reporters into fundraisers.
============
Oh, yeah…a bumbling narcissist. He has to have minders, just like Bush. They never know when the next dumbass or petulant moment will come.
Interesting post. Author starts out with the statement “Why the polls are skewed towards Obama” and then creates a hypothetical case, says this could cause a skew, and concludes by saying it is a question worth asking. And then the commenters all fall in line and say. Right on, we knew the polls had to be skewed. Noquarter. A 100% fact-free environment.
And a troll, intellect free analysis.
You really do suck, you really do, the worst I have ever ever seen.
No matter who is correct I will never vote for Obama. I will be a “Republican for a day” in November if Obama is still in the race.
do not quit your day job under any conditions.
Nice comments. Of course, as usual, not one adresses the content of my post. Can anyone please show where the author proves that the polls are skewed toward Obama? I’ll wait…
And don’t get me wrong. I think polls at this point are basically useless. I don’t think the latest poll proves anything. The primary polls proved that over and over.
Trolls think they’re a superior army, that’s why they keep attacking.
obamalamadingdong a 100% fact free candidate
scathhart said…..i am 1 of 18M changed to ind. will never vote obama and neither will my husband
me too!! puma
How about this straw poll????
http://news.aol.com/political-machine/straw-poll
Did you see the poll next to it by Mark Halprin? Yikes…Obama has a serious integrity problem.
OT–
Today is Ray Davies birthday…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEw0ZYlpYXE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hhzJAYkvyU
Not sure whether to laugh or cry after watching this.
Hi HARP,
Looks like the loony bus to me, I think I’ll take the subway.
Smart choice
Fercrissakes! That man’s too stupid (and untalented) to breed.
After seeing that, I mourn for America’s future.
That video has to be a joke. Oh please Allah,, let it be a joke.
where are the “trolls”? sure we have the dregs from the bottom of the barrel today, but the sounds of silence is special.
Planning their next attack campaign…talking points are getting harder to come by.
This is why Obama wont WIN FL. Theirs enough Cubans to decide the victor of Florida. They where willing to vote Hillary but never Obama
The top 25 US communities with the highest percentage of people claiming Cuban ancestry are:[3]
1. Westchester, Florida 65.69%
2. Hialeah, Florida 62.12%
3. Coral Terrace, Florida 61.87%
4. West Miami, Florida 61.61%
5. University Park, Florida 59.80%
6. Olympia Heights, Florida 57.65%
7. Tamiami, Florida 56.63%
8. Hialeah Gardens, Florida 54.31%
9. Medley, Florida 51.91%
10. Sweetwater, Florida 49.92%
11. Palm Springs North, Florida 43.59%
12. Miami Lakes, Florida 42.28%
13. Kendale Lakes, Florida 38.58%
14. Fountainbleau, Florida 37.29%
15. Miami, Florida 34.14%
16. Miami Springs, Florida 31.83%
17. Richmond West, Florida 29.30%
18. Coral Gables, Florida 28.72%
19. Virginia Gardens, Florida 26.11%
20. South Miami Heights, Florida 25.70%
21. Kendall, Florida 21.31%
22. Miami Beach, Florida 20.51%
23. Surfside, Florida 20.15%
24. Country Club, Florida 19.97%
25. West New York, New Jersey 19.64%
Blacks are about 15% of the population and their voter turnout is around 30-35% Cubans are about 21% of the population and their voter turnout is about 64%-68%
the problem is you guys ALWAYS vote Republican. we need to add Independents & Dems to McCain’s numbers.
It is too early to worry too much about polls.
I think Obama flipped on FISA because the KOS folks threatened to withhold any further contributions
Sorry? He did a Crazy Ivan again?
Where is he now?
Well we know who Newsweek is rooting for.
And We Know Who Obama-Wire Is Not Rooting For
http://www.obama-wire.com
Three types of lies:
a. lies
b. damn lies
c. statistics
Nobody is quite sure who is the original source for that observation.
I think Mark Twain was talking to Will Rogers at Dorothy Parker’s table at the Algonquin when Bennet Cerf walked in, but I could be wrong about that.
I’d like a seat at that table.
I heard that it was Benjamin Disraeli. If somebody knows for certain who it was, I would be interested.
LMAO!!!!!!
Moveon ended its 527 group partly in response to Obama’s insistence such groups not spend on his behalf.
Obama will need Clinton supporters money, he says he don’t need you just your checks.
DIDN’T OBAMA MISS THAT FISA VOTE?
Clinton didn’t show, Obama and McCain showed, voted on the amendment, Obama for, Mccain against, did not vote on the actual bill.
I think.
Will check.
Sens. Barack Obama (D-IL) and John McCain (R-AZ) took some time from campaigning for Tuesday’s slate of “Potomac Primaries” in Maryland, Virginia and Washington to swing by the Capitol and vote on the amendments. Obama voted for the amendments to strip immunity from the bill, while McCain opposed the amendments and voted in favor of keeping immunity.
Hillary Clinton did not vote on the immunity issue at all…
Both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton missed the final FISA vote today — they were the only Senators, along with Sen. Graham, to miss it. It occurred between 5:30 p.m. and 6 p.m. The vote was 68 to 29, so it wouldn’t have mattered had they been there. Both were present to vote with Sen. Dodd against cloture a few weeks ago and Obama was present this morning to vote on the Amendment.
Hillary Clinton released this statement on the FISA vote today:
“I believe we need to modernize our surveillance laws and give our nation’s intelligence professionals the tools they need to fight terrorism and to make our country more secure. At the same time, smart, balanced reform must also protect the rights and civil liberties of Americans. In my opinion, the FISA Amendments Act of 2007 falls short of these goals, and for that reason, I oppose the bill.
Take Denver off the hook, Sen. Obama
Chip In Some Money
Make the calls to your donors, Sen. Obama. Send the e-mails. Denver should no longer be on the hook for Democratic National Convention expenses. A few exhortations to your supporters could quickly retire the city’s remaining obligations.
After all, Denver is simply providing the venue for Barack Obama’s nomination. It’s his party. It’s only appropriate to ask his contributors to ensure that the celebration is a rousing success.
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/jun/20/take-denver-off-the-hook-sen-obama/
Great post — lots of us have wondered how these numbers are put together, and this makes loads of sense.
And great comments too, a very info-laden thread.
Thank you!
Has anybody linked to TPM ? It looks like a Cirque du Soleil cattle call over there. People are performing the most amazing contortions to preserve their Vero Possumus brand Hope.®
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/06/why_obamas_support_for_fisa_ca.php
“Barack Obama’s call for ‘new politics’ is officially over.
http://goodtimepolitics.com/page/2/
Foot in mouth comments of Obama is beginning to show his grooming by Jeremiah Wright. Talking this way when he is for more control, for banning hand guns and closing all gun shops within 5 miles of parks or schools…which will close most all the gun shops.
(WSJ) John McCain’s campaign accused the Democratic candidate of playing the politics of fear. They also mentioned that Obama said he would use a gun that would be illegal under Obama’s plans to cut down on illegal firearms.
“Barack Obama’s call for ‘new politics’ is officially over. In just 24 hours, Barack Obama attacked one of America’s pioneering women CEOs, rejected a series of joint bipartisan town halls, and said that if there’s a political knife fight, he’d bring a gun,” McCain campaign spokesman Tucker Bounds said in a statement.
Obama made the comment in the context of warning donors that the general election campaign against McCain could get ugly.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/06/14/obama-if-they-bring-a-knife-to-the-fight-we-bring-a-gun/?mod=MostPopular?mod=fpa_blogs
We don’t need a president still wet behind the ears that we have to babysit and give him an Obama sock doll to play with! Vote Mr. John McCain for President of The United States of America!
RE: Comment by catharine | 2008-06-21 17:24:21
How about this straw poll????
http://news.aol.com/political-machine/straw-poll
THANKS FOR THE LINK!
Straw polls are BS. If you can decide to be a part of a poll, it’s junk — completely meaningless and unscientific.
Gallup, USA Today, WSJ, Newsweek, etc. are not done that way. They call a random sample of the public. These have their own issues and are not perfect but they’re not just junk like a straw poll.
All you Trolling poll sucking feeble minded Barky backers, It’s possible barky win the Popular vote but lose his ass because he is doing now exactly what the slime ball did to Florida and Michigan….Barky thinks he wins without Ohio,Florida and Pa. so the slimeball decided to disinfranchise States he must win…Trolls has it occurred to you, people are smarter than y’all? Barky is focusing on 18 states rather than trying to unite. The ass is dividing,or can’t you Barky playmates see the mess he’s causing…
PragmatismRules:: you speaking of Sinclair made me think about something I read about the arrest…Not sure,but if it’s true Delaware had little or no interest then why did the U.S. Marshal serve the warrant? News leaking out the whole arrest thing was initially setup by Barky or his staff….If it’s true the whole damn Sinclair story is true
Has anyone wondered why if Delaware Police wanted to arrest Sinclair ,they easily could have months before he showed up for his News Conference….Seems strange they would wait until the U.S Marshals obtained the arrest warrant, doesn’t it?
…..http://hillaryloyalistnowformccain.com/thesinclairsaga.aspx
http://www.larrysinclair.org
http://citizenwells.wordpress.com/
http://larrysinclair0926.wordpress.com/
http://www.larrysinclair.org/press.html
Attacking on Iowa
In a Florida speech today, Obama links McCain’s conservatism to the Iowa floods:
Just the other day, Senator McCain traveled to Iowa to express his sympathies for the victims of the recent flooding. I’m sure they appreciated the sentiment, but they probably would have appreciated it more if he hadn’t opposed legislation to fund levees and flood control programs, which he seems to consider pork. Well, we do have to reform budget earmarks, cut genuine pork, and dispense with unnecessary spending, as we confront a budget crisis left by the most fiscally irresponsible administration in modern times.
UPDATE: McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds responds:
“Barack Obama opposed and voted against the bipartisan effort by John McCain, Russ Feingold and Claire McCaskill to assure that lifesaving levees like those that so tragically failed in Iowa and Missouri are given the highest priority and fixed first. It is beyond the pale that Barack Obama would attack John McCain for actually trying to fix the problem and change the way Washington works. Barack Obama’s willingness to continue the status quo pork-barrel politics in Washington, and then engage in political attacks that entirely disregard the facts, once again fundamentally shows that he’s nothing more than a typical politician.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0608/Attacking_on_Iowa.html
About the time you think Obama can’t be any more stupid, something like this comes along. I’m glad to see McCain showing Obama for the ill-informed jackass he is.
This is interesting:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/01/17/politics/main2369157.shtml
What I find particularly disturbing is nobama’s vote NOT to require medical care for a “fetus” who is born alive as a result of an abortion…here’s what he had to say about this: (see link above for the full article)
Obama — who joined several other Democrats in voting “present” in 2001 and “no” the next year — argued the legislation was worded in a way that unconstitutionally threatened a woman’s right to abortion by defining the fetus as a child.
“It would essentially bar abortions because the equal protection clause does not allow somebody to kill a child, and if this was a child then this would be an anti-abortion statute,” Obama said in the Senate’s debate in March 2001.”
What is a fetus who is born alive…it’s an infant, a child. It’s no longer a fetus, as it is technically outside the mother’s womb and is not dependent on her for life.
This is abhorrent!
He will NEVER Get my vote!
Hillary has supported a ban on late-term partial birth abortion except in rare cases where the life/health of the mother is at stake.
it is no longer the democratic party it is the OBOMMUNIST PARTY!
Here is a little something that might surprise the Obama campaign in their quest to turn all southern red states blue.
Enter Obama, who says his African-American heritage changes the game in 2008. What if blacks did vote their percentage of the population in the states he mentions?(Miss. and Ga.)
Say he gets every black Mississippi vote that Kerry got in 2004. (about 352,500). Then say he gets the Mississippi white voters who supported Kerry (105,200). Then give him all of the 72,600 black voters who would turn out if Mississippi blacks voted their percentage of the population in 2008. That’s about 530,300 total votes for Obama — still short of the 685,000 Mississippi votes that went to George W. Bush in 2004.
In sum, he falls short by more than 150,000 votes in Mississippi, about 300,000 votes in Georgia even using the most favorable estimates.
For Obama to come close in southern states he is going to have to pick up high numbers of those blue collar voters that he still cannot win over today.
Plus, all of us disaffected Southern Hillary supporters who will cross party lines for the day to send him back to Chicago!
to Chicago?
How about to Kenya. Doesn’t he still have a Kenyan citizenship?
He is currently winning voters making under 50K. You really have to keep up – those exit polls did NOT predict votes for the general election.
Ben – What Obama and his buds don’t understand about polls of any kind is that there are a whole lot of folks out here who don’t give a rat’s ass what the WSJ, Newsweek, NY Times polls say. They are trying to make a living in an environment that’s no longer exactly friendly to the unrich (new word). In my area, I don’t know of anyone who has been polled or who wants to be polled. And guess what, they don’t like or trust Barack Obama, because of his sleazy friends, his lack of experience, his lack of substance, etc.–not because of his race. So, in short, the Obamabots can take their polls and their statistics and put them where the sun don’t shine because we’re all voting for McCain.
the OBOMMUNIST party is the party of Bernadine Dohrn& Billy Ayers- weathermen -terrorist bombers who beat the rap, rev. Wright minister Phelger and Michael Moore backed by the anti-semite anti-American george soros. as well as the Castro -supporter-operatives Eric Holder & Greg Craig Obama’s foriegn policy guru . all unrepentent commies1 hence. the new moniker the OBOMMUNIST PARTY!
for me it’s H. Clinton ! if not, Mcain!!!
So many polls and exit polls were off during the primary, especially certain pollsters, that I am convinced the Bradley Effect plays a part here. I will feel badly about that if I thought Barack Obama were an honest and deserving man.
I will also say, having been a politics junkie for a lonnnnnnnnng time, that polls in June are totally worthless. Try October if you want a better barometer. Even Mike Dukakis had a 17 point lead in July, if that helps you comprehend how useless polls are right now. For a newly “appointed” candidate, even Obama’s “bump” was paltry.
He may have had a better chance of convincing blocks of voters who are leery of him if he hadn’t so obviously flip flopped on stances. I’m thinking Latinos in Florida, where he had to backpedal about Castro. Or Jews, where he has constantly had to backpedal his stance on Israel. As for women…in the figurative sense, I think many of us recognize him as the classic abuser and want no part of him.
Everyone uses Dukakis as an example of June polls not meaning anything. However, there are important differences. Dukakis was not well known by the public and the Bush people were able to paint him as an out of touch liberal. Obama just went through a very long and visible nomination fight. The public has already heard many of the attacks the Republicans are likely to use in the fall. People have already built it into their calculations. Also, I think sites like this help Obama because it makes many of the people attacking look a little looney.
It is my fervent wish that the Republicans have a whole lot more to say about Obama that no one knows yet. And the only posters on this site who look just a tad off plumb are the rabid Obamabots.
wac for hillary: I’m a (I)-Conservative. I listen to talk radio all day long at work.
I can tell you from everything I’ve read and seen, that there will be no direct attack on Obama on anything other than policy, and even then it would probably be a bland ineffectual attempt.
The Republicans are expecting the Press to be against them in a way which they have never experienced before. They are expecting everything to be twisted and turned around as an accusation that the Republicans are racist. And the Republicans are expecting to have whatever message they come up with to be distorted by the press.
Conservatives are still upset with McCain especially with some of his positions that held until just the past week..
including
Cap & Trade. Conservatives see this as an unprecedented government take over of industry
Any Global Warming laws: Conservative have basically concluded that there is no such thing as CO2 & Manmade / Caused Global Warming. The temps have declined overall this decade, both air and ocean. And the temps have really collapsed this year due to the Sun’s surface activity basically being shut down. Cycle 24 did not start when it was supoosed to and mayn scientists are saying the last time the sun was showing this behavior was the start of a little ice age in the late 1700s.
Attacking Oil Companies: Conservatives note that the profit MARGIN of the oil companies is within a normal business range. (I think it’s 8%.. i didn’t take care to try to remember).. So seeing that the profit margin is normal, it should not be the govt’s business to interfere with what the absolute dollar amount is. Plus extensive meddling by the govt to try to control the market directly is bound to end in failure
ANWR: McCain calls this a Grand Canyon type treasure. It’s a baron moonscape. The area that drilling is proposed to occur is the size of an airport. We think getting new supplies asap should supercede any other consideration.
That’s all I care to type right…
So for those reasons (some of which he has started to move away from) and McCain’s history , some conservatives are not planning on voting.
They do not want another Bush. Many conservatives feel that Bush did what Clinton did in the 1990s. He ran as if he was a standard bearer for his party, but then in office, acted as if he was part of the other party. Triangulation. If my memory serves, Bill Clinton’s triangulation left the Democrat Party with a base that wasn’t very happy or motivated by the end of his 2nd term.
The same thing is happening with Conservatives and teh Republicans.
So conservatives do not want to vote for someone who thy know isn’t going to stick to thier ideology.
I was not going to vote this year once it was decided that the guy would be McCain. Plus I live in Illinois, so it wouldn’t’ matter who i voted for, the State is going for Obama.
I was content to sit this one out until I started hearing Michelle Obama’s speeches in the winter. .. they were very disturbing.. talking about fixing souls.. Obama will make us work.. not be isolated, etc..
I never heard such rhetoric in a campaign before and it was way tooo personal… I’m sorry but fixing souls should not be in the job description of President.
Then I saw the YoutTube clip where Obama says how he’s going to dismantle our military.
that is when i decided I can’t sit this election out. I must vote for McCain.. everyone must vote for McCain
Whoever this Obama guy is. he’s dangerous.
The Men and Women in our Military must be respected. We must honor them by choosing someone who is worthy of their sacrifices for their country.
Voting for Obama is like spitting on all their faces.
I dont know what the other conservatives are going to to do. especially the cry baby ones.
But dont expect the Republicans to go hard after Obama.. I think they are going to try to let Obama fall on his own sword.
I hope I’m wrong.
Yeah, BO makes Dukakis look like salt of the earth, country folk. The GOP doesn’t even have to pick up a brush to complete the image of BO as an out of touch, arugula eating, 10,000 piano lesson worrying, Camelot with a tan, elitist.
You understand don’t you that most Democrats can’t stand this guy, and he’s lost all the Independent and GOP faux affection he once had. He is now nothing more than a flip-flopping, out of touch, Marxist radical whose desire to overthrow America’s government is the only thing we know for sure that he cares about.
The Bradley effect is mostly hokum, imo.
I lived in LA during that time and I’m black.
Bradley wasn’t wildly popular among African Americans in the first place and a whole lot of California is Republican.
Reagan came from California, remember.
Democrats are not slam-dunk in California no matter what people think.
Or Ahh-nold wouldn’t be governor.
He’s winning women by a strong margin and he’s doing as well as Kerry among Jews.
He’s also winning Hispanics 2-1.
The Newsweek poll is an outlier; I don’t see any other polls out there that show Obama with such a big lead. Here’s two sites that record the results of various polls. On the Real Clear Politics site, all the other polls show Obama up by two to six points. The graph on the Pollster site shows that Obama is ahead, but between the two it’s been neck and neck, the lead sometimes with McCain and sometimes with Obama.
http://www.pollster.com/08-US-Pres-GE-MvO.php
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
November is a long ways away.
Doesn’t the Newsweek poll skew the Rasmussen average?
No. Rasmussen only includes its own polls in its tracking poll. It doesn’t include polls by Newsweek or any other polling firm.
You’re right.
It’s RealClearPolitics’ average I was thinking of.
This person does not know anything about polling. Most pollsters do not weight the data by party identification. This was a big issue in the last election. You are all kidding yourself if you think somehow there is the large group of anti-Obama voters who are not being polled. He is ahead and has a good shot at winning. You should get used to the idea, so it won’t hit you hard on election day.
You guys are going to be hit *very* hard in November when Obama loses.
My advice to you Obama supporters – seriously – is to begin the grieving process now.
You guys are missing the “big picture.”
The MSM wants Obama do do well early, so they can delight in tearing him down as he loses later. That’s their SOP. Build ‘em up high, so you can enjoy tearing ‘em down later.
Think of Barry as the New Coke.
Or better still, Lindsay Lohan!
PUMA’s have had an awakening. More will join as the day’s go by. John McCain will have a new constituancy because PUMA people are not going to be thrown under the bus like everyone else OHB comes in contact with.
So using this same logic, the polls must have also been wrong in the beginning of the campaign when they ALL said that Hillary would win. You can’t have it both ways. You love to quote polls when they are in your favor, but then trash the exact same pollsters when you don’t like the results. The important thing to remember is that NONE of the polls mean squat this far ahead of the election.
Comment by jc
Why are you here then, hanging with the looneys and tooneys?
I for one am looney and angry – the DNC and RBC along with anyone and everyone who is a surrogate or supports Wright Ayers Pfleger Obama is to blame. Because Hillary should have and would have made ONE HELL OF A PRESIDENT of THE UNITED STATES and people like you gave us a fucking dipshit instead.
Call me crazy – that’s alright – I’ll own it.
The polls are NOT adjusting according to the percentage of Democrats and Republicans they expect.
What’s happened is that we have an extraordinarily unpopular president so fewer and fewer people are now Republicans.
There’s been a huge shift of the population to Democrats.
And that’s why Obama is winning overall even though he has slightly fewer Democrats supporting him than McCain has Republicans.
See this chart of general election polls:
http://www.pollster.com/08-US-Pres-GE-MvO.php
It has all publicly available polls. Right now Obama seems to be pulling ahead and McCain seems to be falling back.
Of course that could change. But this is the current state of the race.
Hoshyar Zebari, the foreign minister said “my message” to Mr. Obama “was very clear. . . . Really, we are making progress. I hope any actions you will take will not endanger this progress.” He said he was reassured by the candidate’s response, which caused him to think that Mr. Obama might not differ all that much from Mr. McCain.
from Washington Post interview
Thanks for the great article.
This explains why, in almost every recent presidential, cycle, that the Democratic candidate is ahead in the polls, yet they always seem to LOSE in November.
I don’t expect this November to be any different.
For a little history folks, let’s go back to the election of 1948.
The United States presidential election of 1948 is considered by most historians as the greatest election upset in American history. Virtually every prediction (with or without public opinion polls) indicated that incumbent President Harry S. Truman would be defeated by Republican Thomas Dewey.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._presidential_election,_1948
DEWEY BEATS TRUMAN!
Those not willing to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
The Dems will loose again unless they come to their senses soon and put Hillary up for the Nomination. The arrogant boy King just doesn’t have a clue of just how arrogant he comes off.I already thought he sucked but nowHim and his phoney polls and the Presidential candidates loosers club backing him up. when will the Dems open their eyes and drop this danger to our country. His fucking seal really took the cake.
A More Recent Gallup Poll Has McCain and Obama within its margin of error. So why does the media use the wacky Newsweek poll…….
http://www.obama-wire.com
Because we don’t sell out like Newsweek
http://tinyurl.com/5hl2gf
Obama has no experience what so ever and who can trust him to be the leader of our country! He has also started supporting the Warrantless spy bill and will vote for it he says! How can the people that was against Bush on the spy bill now stand with a straight face and vote for Obama?
http://goodtimepolitics.com/2008/06/22/col-oliver-north-slaps-the-kfc-out-of-barack-obama/