Gallup: McCain Shaves 4 Points Off Of The One’s Lead in Three Days
By Uppity Woman on October 12, 2008 at 11:45 PM in Barack Obama, John McCain
Way to go, John. Now remind PA of how they are “Bitter hicks”. And don’t forget to mention Tony Rezko singing. And how about that Rashid Khalidi and Rezko’s sidekick, the Iraqi prison escapee Alsammarae, who just happens to be hanging out in Chicago. Where else? Fannie Mae anyone? Oh and don’t forget to mention the three brothers in the Hamas compound who contributed to Obama’s campaign. You know, the ones Obama ‘forgot’ to report to the FEC? How racist of you!
PRINCETON, NJ — The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report finds registered voters preferring Barack Obama (50%) to John McCain (43%) when asked who they would vote for if the presidential election were held today.
These results, based on Oct. 9-11, represent a narrowing of Obama’s lead over McCain. Obama led by double-digits for three consecutive days last week, but now his advantage is down to seven percentage points. Obama has led in each of the last three individual days’ polling, but by less than double-digits each day, suggesting that the race is, in fact, tightening.
Likely Voter Estimates
Obama’s current advantage is slightly less when estimating the preferences of likely voters, which Gallup will begin reporting on a regular basis between now and the election. Gallup is providing two likely voter estimates to take into account different turnout scenarios.
The first likely voter model is based on Gallup’s traditional likely voter assumptions, which determine respondents’ likelihood to vote based on how they answer questions about their current voting intention and past voting behavior. According to this model, Obama’s advantage over McCain is 50% to 46% in Oct. 9-11 tracking data.
The second likely voter estimate is a variation on the traditional model, but is only based on respondents’ current voting intention. This model would take into account increased voter registration this year and possibly higher turnout among groups that are traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and racial minorities (Gallup will continue to monitor and report on turnout indicators by subgroup between now and the election). According to this second likely voter model, Obama has a 51% to 45% lead over McCain. — Jeff Jones
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