The Economy–What Lies Ahead
By Larry Doyle on October 14, 2008 at 10:03 AM in Current Affairs
[Note from Larry Johnson--Let me introduce you to Larry Doyle. He was an institutional trader of mortgage securities at First Boston and Bear Stearns for 15 yrs in the '80s and '90s and then was the national sales manager for mortgage products at JP Morgan Chase from 2000-2006. He is currently a private investor and involved in a variety of not for profit activities. He also is an avid reader of NQ which he tells me, "is clearly the best purveyor of truth in journalism in the country!!" LD is an old friend of my business partner and a new friend for me. Knowing his background I asked him to share some of his experience and wisdom with us. He can take you inside Wall Street and help you understand the challenges the world economy faces in the coming years. Welcome Mr. Doyle.]
I share these opinions with you given the historic nature of the events currently going on in our global financial markets and economy. I hope that you find them of interest. I would be very interested in your thoughts as well. Much like that scene in the movie “Trading Places” when the wealthy tycoon “turn those machines back on”, I view this bailout package as nothing more than the best of a litany of very bad alternatives. Without being overly pessimistic, though, if you want to reduce this package to layman’s terms this package is the equivalent of a massive injection of capital/liquidity into a Ponzi scheme that was being played (whether they knew were playing it or not) by certain large financial institutions.
The systemic risk was so massive that something had to be done. That said, this injection of capital will not necessarily fully flow through to the economy.The banking system here in the U.S. likely has $1 trillion in embedded losses. This plan is trying to buy time for the system to recognize those losses. The recognition of those losses will curtail future growth for the banking system and the economy as a whole. The U.S. followed Europe’s lead and specifically Great Britains’ in making the direct capital injections into banks. If the U.S. did not there would likely have been a significant capital flight to Europe. However, while the U.S. is injecting 250mm (i.e., billion) as part of the 700mm package, Europe has injected 10 times that figure. We may still see a flight in capital away from our economy. Not that other economies are necessarily stronger, because they are not, but merely due to the fact that the level of nationalization of deposits is actually deeper. How do all these programs, both here in the U.S. and around the world get funded? What are the implications for the markets?
In my opinion, I see the following.
1. Global Increase in Long Term Interest Rates –the massive amount of debt that will need to be issued will cause rates worldwide to rise even in the face of a likely significant economic slowdown. …….
- 10yr U.S. Treasury rate is up 50bps in the last week even with the Fed having cut the fed Funds rate by 50bps…
- IBM issued debt last week in the midst of this tsunami….they borrowed for 5yrs at app 6.75% and 10yr money at app 7.75% ( a full 400bps over Treasurys for one of the strongest global companies!!!!!!)
- 3 mo Libor is only down to 4.63% this morning from 4.75% at the end of last week…hardly a resounding vote of confidence
- markets are now appreciating where REAL money will care to invest not the highly levered and speculative money that was the lifeblood of Wall St. and hedge funds for the last 8 yrs.
2. Financial asset deflation while hard goods and asset inflation. Why??
- I can already hear the printing presses at work churning out currencies worldwide. The rise in interest rates will depress bond values. With slower worldwide economic growth and increasing unemployment GDP prospects are not pretty for the foreseeable future. I think there is a very strong chance that we will see “stagflation”.
- While financial assets have limited upside growth potential and significant downside even from here, hard commodities and assets will likely increase in value or perhaps I should write will hold their value as financial currencies and financial assets lose value.
3. Where do you put your money??
- take what the market is giving you, and right now they are giving you security and guarantees in deposits in large money center banks,…this also provides flexibility to provide liquidity for those in desperate need and you will see more and more of that occur both at a personal level and a corporate level…. BE PATIENT…..
- buy QUALITY…..this market is very quickly separating the wheat from the chaff…well managed institutions will gain market share and it will be reflected in the value of their stocks and bonds….one has to fully understand an entity’s ability to generate cash flow to meet their debt service and to grow their enterprise…..
4. Other Highlights…
- if the government accedes to the pressure being applied to suspend the mark to market accounting principle, I would expect that that move would only prolong the underperformance of the economy….I view a suspension of the mark to market as the equivalent of an agreement to officially allow one to “cook their books”…
- SELL RALLIES…….while financial institutions have been feeling the pain of overleverage for the last 12 to 18 months that pain is just now coming to bear on the consumer…given that the consumer represents app 70% of our GDP, the expected precipitous drop in consumption across a wide array of products and industries will be very painful….you will see a litany of corporations announcing layoffs on a regular basis…Pepsi did just that this morning…
Not trying to be a gloom and doom guy here but I think we are in for a very rough ride. Granted this is just my opinion and you know what they say about opinions…
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I know this is off topic but please send this on to everyone you know.
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/warner-todd-huston/2008/10/14/obama-pushed-our-kids-lit-textbook
This is outrageous & needs to be put up as a topic here at NQ.
Second on tthe needs to be a topic.
The book is a fricken’ fable.
Has anyone sent this to FOX, Drudge, anywhere???
acorn spokesman at national press club on c-span2:
http://www.cspan.org/Watch/C-SPAN2_wm.aspx
Here is Obama campaigning for Odinga new video
http://texasdarlin.wordpress.com/2008/10/10/obama-and-odinga-new-video
want to know more about post last night concerning possible cash to Odinga’s campaign of 1M, learned by Corsi…
This information is a valuable addition to No Quarter. I was just reading that Bush is putting $250 billion into shoring up our banks. I am extremely worried that if Obama gets in the WH, he will rob working people of their money (we already more in income taxes than a lot of people make in a year) and give that money to undeserving people who do not want to work hard to get an education or go to a real job. I want to know what he means when he tells people “I’m not trying to punish you for success, I’m taking your money so the people behind you can have a chance.” A chance at what? What is he going to do with our money? Minorities already have loads of opportunity to go to college and get job preference, so what is his plan. I’m afraid he’s going to put billions into the Faith Based Initiative for black churches, The Neighborhood Project for black organizations, and then stuff like ACORN so minority people don’t have to work to get houses and money. I think no one should be able to take other people’s hard-earned money unless they have a totally transparent program that informs all Americans of where the money is going. Obama will never do that because he is a crook.
Tek you might be interested in this piece.
Obama and Acorn
Community organizers, phony voters, and your tax dollars.
Sad, it’s just sad. I’m starting to think the whole tax structure of this country should be reviewed and changed. My husband and I have always criticized libertarians but we’re beginning to think about joining the FairTax. org people.
Yeah, where are Steve Forbes and his flat tax now that we need him?
I’m for the Fair Tax. It is what it says it is, FAIR.
Whoa, let’s calm down about the minorities comment. Even though this is a reply, I’m not pointing fingers. I have seen similar comments on this site and others and it’s bothering me a bit. So I want to speak my piece.
Frankly, I think the black community has made very good strides and have taken advantage of many opportunities. However, many of our so called leaders are too focused on the victimization of the community. Ie they focus on how things are terrible in the black community instead of highlighting our accomplishments. And you have kids who focus on being the wrong things like a rapper instead of getting a solid paying job (white and black kids, let’s be real). So that’s what you get on TV.
Frankly it’s a sad thing that it takes a run for the Presidency for people to start to realize the potential of the community because there are many role models for children to look to. They do not NEED Obama.
There seems to be this weird backlash against minorities as of late. It’s not racism. It’s more that people have connected Obama, his cronies, and their unfortunate qualities, to the black community. All I ask is that you separate them. Take Obama for Obama, and ACORN for ACORN. And both have done some very shady things and need to be held to account. I just do not want those qualities to bleed over into generalities about minority communities.
We can not do that and expect to progress race, sex, ethnic relations in this country.
your argument was very good until you tried to separate ACORN from Obama.
and I spoke too soon and read too fast. sorry, all your points are good and you did not try and separate ACORN from Obama.
XAX:
So true, thank you!
This has been my thought all along. We (the country) do NOT need Obama.
There are already many supports in place for the low and no income folks. But, it’s up to them to take advantage and then improve themselves.
A majority of young adults get jobs and find their independence, through work or school. But the media only focuses on the gangs, the welfare moms, the supposedly down-trodden. Blacks, per capita, are among the highest recipients, while only up to 3% of AA’s take advantage of getting a college education. Obama’s plan would enable the rest to continue to do nothing but collect checks. He’s a socialist through and through.
When the state I worked in a few years back tightened their welfare laws it was surprising how many of those welfare moms and dads – sometimes 2nd generation – found work or went back to school.
Once the safety net was taken away, they HAD to start finding their potential. That’s a positive result. Obama’s plan would punish everyone all around. Taking away from some and keeping others on the welfare rolls. That’s just nuts and NOT what is needed.
ACORN has done some good stuff, too. Let’s not forget that.
It just obviously isn’t doing the right thing now.
Name the good things ACORN has done, besides getting people to register to vote.
If people can’t be bothered to register on their own accord then screw them. They obviously have other priorities. I don’t want my tax dollars spent on some asshole who needs to be hand held during the process.
The whole whole organization seems like an enormous waste of time. Wandering around trying to get people to register to vote? To what end? So that everyone eligible is eventually registered? Then what? What percentage of those who had to be herded up and coddled into registering will actually follow through and eventually vote? Or is there a plan to round them up and and deliver them to their polling places as well?
Total bullshit.
Bullying banks into giving people loans they couldn’t afford?
xax,
I agree with your post. And this is one of the main reasons I am against 0bama. As an AA, I’ve had to endure, over these last months, watching this biracial man exploit and co-opt my ethnic identity. If there is a backlash, it is due to 0bama’s shameless and irresponsible playing of the race card.
Also, I am in total accord with you about there being too much focus on what’s wrong in the black community as opposed to a positive approach about what is right and building on it. But it’s not just the leadership doing that. It’s everywhere, particulalry in media. The entertainment industry: Hollywood movies and tv, the music industry, has reinforced only the grossest stereotypes in the AA community. Producers won’t even touch a movie unless it has the sociological sterotypes that they want to push. This election has made me realize that the news media is in on it, too.
I grew up in an urban environment of the 60s and I can tell you that many of our problems were not any different from most Americans. We just had the added issue of racism to deal with. It wasn’t until after the social revolutions of the late 60’s that you began to see a growth of an underclass that was glorified by political leaders, and the entertainment industry.
Before there were many intact family units struggling economically but determined to adhere to family values and a cohesive family unit.
Interestingly enough, I know very little about ACORN. In NYC, their presence has not been as strong as elsewhere. Maybe it’s more so in the outer boroughs like Queens, Brooklyn and the Bronx.
But I’d like a statistical read on just how many minorities took advantage of these mortgages compared to the many Caucasians who saw opportunity in buying real estate for profit, puls those who also fit the low income threshold.
Until I see that, I have to assume that there’s plenty of blame to go around. Frankly, I’m holding all of OUR elected officials responsible for not doing a better job of over-seeing this. It’s their responsibility! That’s why we elect them.
Bottom line: 0bama is a fraud to me on so many levels.
That’s why I will not give him my vote!
I agree with you totally. What needs to happen in this country is that people, period, should stop trying to game the system and start realizing that no one can get by just taking advantage of other people. The government is us. I haven’t heard Obama say that yet.
If the government had across the board subsidies (like for education) and if they would up hold the laws that are already on the books, we could have a just, humane, equal society without any new programs or expenditures.
But since the ’60s it’s gotten to be a career to figure out how to take advantage of government programs.
xax
Please remember that it was Obama and his handlers that injected race into the campaign from the very beginning. It would be the epitome of irony if it wasn’t so ultimately destructive. It also was their strategy to prevent critique and vetting of their candidate. I work in an inner city hospital and put a Hillary Clinton bumper sticker on my care during the primaries, it was almost all the way scraped off one night when I got to my care. So let’s be honest here please. And one cannot separate 2 parts hydrogen from 1 part oxygen and still have water. BO’s as entangled in ACORN and with the radicals as anybody else. The ‘backlash’ is all orchestrated and the radicals are laughing all the way to the WH(God willing they’ll be stopped at the gate).
He has at least 10 new expenditure programs plus expanding existing programs. Like education grants, etc., retraining, all kinds of things.
Why all of these programs?
Because the educational system is a failure. It fails the students and parents. It is a virtual waste of time. He needs the money to provide more education and more education and more education. Unlimited educational programs for people that have no interest in learning angthing.
Obama doesn’t even understand market and money principles. Since he’s never done an honest day’s work in his life, how could he? He bought his mansion ONLY because of the help of his crooked buddy, Rezko. He started in politics and had a job as the head of the questionable Annenburg fund because of his terrorist buddy, Ayers. His support of and funding of ACORN is alarming. He has raised millions of dollars and is blowing it like a drunken sailor in an attempt to buy his way into the Presidency, which I fear is going to work. Oh, and I heard today that he raised over a million bucks for his cousin, the terrorist/murderer in Kenya (catch up on Corsi info). He hasn’t shown up for his senate responsibilities to speak of. He just keeps running for ‘the next big thing’.
With that type of track record of NOTHING, what could he possibly bring to the office of POTUS?
I honestly never thought of him as a ‘terrorist’until recently, after I’ve read more and more of his long-term friendships with terrorists and Chicago thugs.
With this type of background, how can he even begin to understand fiscal responsibility? He will want to take all the funds he can and funnel it into his ’special interests – community action – terrorist’ groups.
I fear our country is financially DOOMED if he takes over!
If Obama wins, we’ll be looking at putting our savings into foreign currencies in foreign banks – seriously!
And his supporters? If Obama wins we’ll have them on every corner feeling they’re ‘owed’ some sort of compensation for supporting their Messiah. We already see that these people have no ability to take responsibility for their own actions, with all their blame on the ‘greedy banks’ for the bad mortgages, taking none of the blame themselves for signing loan documents for ARMS, with high-risk rates, and no downpayments. Rather than admit they were greedy and perhaps uneducated, they want to blame others and still get what they think is ‘due them’. Obama will give it to them too.
I’m disgusted with those crooks.
Clinton’s ‘Trouble’ ad
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ie_n5DX3aFY&eurl
‘I’ve lost faith in The Messiah’: How EDWARD HEATHCOAT AMORY lost his Obama-mania
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1077345/Ive-lost-faith-The-Messiah-How-EDWARD-HEATHCOAT-AMORY-lost-Obama-mania.html
…………………………..
Obama’s takes Hillary’s ideas that during the primary he didn’t support and now calls it part of his four point plan?
The British are just now figuring out that Obama is not the inspirational politician that the world had been waiting for.
Yes, I read a headline this morning that Hillary said on FOX that she will not run for president again, or try to be Senate Majority, or Supreme Court Justice or anything. I guess Brazile & Dean have kidnapped Chelsea and are holding her in an undisclosed location to force HIllary to say that she has no further political ambition. Interpretation: All the HIllary people better get on board with Obama because you’ll never get Hillary.
The corporate coup is complete.
LINK?
Found it…
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081014/ap_on_el_pr/clinton_s_future
I don’t blame her. I would do that same thing.
If I were Hillary Clinton, save for the weather and the requirement to put mayonnaise on French fries I’d move my behind to Canada and laugh…
I watched the video of Hillary’s Fox interview and I have to say I am extremely disappointed that she seems to think an Obama Presidency is the best way to go.
I know she is a little further left on some positions than President Clinton, but surely she does not approve of how Obama and his thugs are behaving and I would think she would be afraid for the nation with Obama at its helm and that she would not support his socialistic policies.
John McCain embraced her proposal for mortgage assistance – not Obama. If she thinks that Obama will respect her and work with her after this campaign is over, I am afraid she may have a very rude awakening.
Does Hillary have a choice at this point but to say what she’s saying? It’s clear that the Party is holding her responsible if 0bama loses. They know what’s going around on the Internet among her supporters. Don’t vote for 0bama so Hillary can run in 2012.
She’s giving it the full Party loyalty run.
Personally, it stopped being about Hillary for me months ago. I know people on this board don’t want to talk about it yet, but sooner or later we’re going to have to have a disucssion about the next step!
I, for one, am not going to let the Democratic Party get away with what they did this election cycle. It matters not whether 0bama loses, wins or becomes a great POTUS. The Dem Party, the msm have no right to choose a candidate for us.
This is a Democracy!
George Soros and many of these hedge funds with leftist ties have come right out and said they now own the Democratic party. They have put so much money into it over the years, that it is no longer the party of JFK and FDR. Donna Brazile said as much, as well. “The base can stay home.” They’re bugging you to vote for them, but the party no longer represents moderates.
Oh, I saw it on Yahoo! News.
tek
you got it quite right. the current state of affairs is indicative of the fact that obama and co will win the power game at ANY cost.
i repeat….ANY cost.
the corporate obamacoup is complete. the new world leader is now on the scene. the stage is set.
except that McCain is the new cog in the wheel, replacing the position that Hillary held. and he is fighting mad right now, and i strongly suspect he will not be going quietly into that good night. good for him, but i hope he’s watching his rear.
the obam-coup is after Sarah Palin like sharks in bloody water. their brownshirts are outdoing themselves, and the surrogates are spinning madly.
a pox on them all.
Sen Hillary Clinton must now protect herself and her family by stepping down and away.
she has seen what can happen to anyone who does not do what they are told to do.
this morning i was thinking about Stephanie Tubbs Jones, Hillary’s best friend and staunchest of allies. an amazing African American woman, patriot and upholder of Democracy. i hope that from her vantage point on the other side, Stephanie can somehow vibe back to us mere earthlings some of the real and good truth.
just saying.
Well, clearly she’s as disgusted with the DNC as we all are.
She was our only real hope for honest, centrist change – economic stability, international stability, and a handful of good, well-managed programs.
Instead? The DNC offers us a no-experience, arrogant asshole with bad ideas and not a hint of fiscal or international background.
I’m voting McCain and I’m honestly now hoping that ‘The Bradley Effect’ can be counted on to save this country from the downward spiral that will be the Obama administration.
McCain wasn’t my first choice. But he’s now my only choice.
Wow. This Brit reads the whole circumstantial case that Obama is a fraud and still says he’ll vote for him. He doesn’t expect any good from him, but oh what the heck.
The fact is a British citizen has no vote here in the United States. So his opinion is nothing more than an opinion. He has no vote.
I don`t see people trying to immigrate to socialists countries.
Where have you looked?
They don’t have to , socialism is coming to our neighborhood soon. —-IF—- Obama wins.
Well I guess this is one way to cut down on illegal aliens from
walking across the border in broad daylightsneaking into our country. SNARKActually many people are.. but they’re all the wrong people.
In Europe, there is a massive population transfer occurring … Muslims are moving in and in many countries (not all) getting put onto generous welfare while they maintain multiple wives and have an army of offspring.
They’re using the socialist welfare to sustain themselves meanwhile they plot its destruction and replacement by a Caliphate.
It’s the people of means and ability who are fleeing Socialism.
EUtopia is becoming Eurabia.
Yes, this is what my British manicurist told me. She left Britain because so many Muslims have come in and the government lets them sign up immediately for all the social services benefits and they are protected as racial minorities. Traditional Brits don’t like it.
Great piece and glad you are here at NQ.
In watching the markets I knew the banks were in trouble and it would just be a matter of time after the Fan and Fred mess. You are not talking gloom and doom you are telling it like it is. We are big girls and boys and we can take it. $125 Bil will be going into the banks…I think this will just prolong the inevitable as you say in your piece here there are going to be layoffs
I know there is nothing that the gov. can do to stop this mess we are heading for. I think they caused it and are now trying to fix it.
Hold on to your boots boys and girls and pray for the best.
What a great piece. I have been against this bailout for reasons I could not well-articulate. Thank you for giving me a better understanding of what has happened, and what we may expect down the road.
Larry (Doyle):
Thank you for this post. I know that you have stated these are just your opinions, but you’ve got more “facts” contained in your opinion than most MSM “journalists” have in their news pieces. This is confusing and humbling, and I’m afraid that I have to trust the experts on this one, as I don’t have sufficient empirical knowledge about banking or finance to make my “gut feelings” anything more than just indigestion.
So, how long do you think this is going to last? A couple of years? Longer?
And finally someone is talking about the Global Poverty Act – This bill is going to kill us financially. As if we need anymore help with that.From the blogs of RCP: Tuesday, October 7, 2008
You Think 700 Billion Was A Lot? Guess Again
http://rightwingwizkid.blogspot.com/2008/10/you-think-700-billion-was-lot-guess.html
Obama’s real loyalty is to the Middle East and Africa (his people).
He will spend America dry by sending billions to them if he is elected and has free reign with a Dem majority in the House and the Senate.
He must be stopped.
And we can stop him.
Exactly that’s why we need a Republican president.
“…I think we are in for a very rough ride. ”
That part I understand. I get the impression that there are not that many people, including so-called financial experts, who really know what is going on. If experts can predict the future, then they would have been able to predict the current crisis. I didn’t see that happen. Even after the failure of Countrywide over a year ago, our politicians just went merrily on their way.
I remember last Nov or Dec, Hillary gave a talk to Wall St on the mortgage crisis. I remember well because I had such a hard time finding an online report. CNN was talking about planted questions by Hillary’s campaign in Iowa. They had no time for trivial issues like the mortgage crisis.
I only know a couple of other things: (1) there is an enormous amount of waste in federal spending; McCain wants to eliminate it…great, and Obama wants to increase it, stupid. (2) the timing of this crisis could not be more convenient for whoever is elected; he doesn’t have to accept the blame, but we’ll probably be begging him for Naomi Klein’s shock therapy.
One World Government…here we come.
All praise and thanksgiving to Obamessiah.
Obamessiah, the banker’s choice. Did the government takeover the banking system, or was it the other way around?
Oh no. I think we all know what is going on. What’s going on is what’s going on. Please understand it. What’s going on is what’s going on.
Filthiness of Obamatrons, made good by excusing it.
ACORN just had a press conference and excused itself.
The Senate is holding hearing to excuse derivatives and find a way to ‘clear them out’ by legitimizing them.
Legitimize criminals like in the previous thread.
Legitimize terrorist and hate for America.
Legitimize the MSM corrupted and biased reporting.
Legitimize failure.
Legitimize a politician campaigning for president that does not answers questions as required.
What is going on is the desconstruction of decency.
Its been indecent all along albeit they are taking it to a new level. People faithful to both parties have been duped all along. We are seeing way beneath the window dressing at last. Lots of work to do, and we begin by electing a reformer who really gives a rat’s ass about America: John McCain.
This is the FISA bill and all other bills advanced by Bush to legitimize law breaking and unconstitutional acts, on massive doses of steroids. The Bush administration has just been a trial run, and Obama will take that baton, and run with it until no one will recognize this country or democracy anymore. McCain may not be perfect, but he’s the last/best chance we have.
mccain live:
http://www.cnn.com/video/live/live.html?stream=stream1
Look At This…McCain has up a piece and it says read it all and links to a pro Obama piece…I kid you not.Here are the links
First McCain….
Why John McCain Would Make The Best President
it says
click here to read entire article.
It looks like someone from the McCain camp is screwing over McCain/Palin.
I searched the piece – Why John McCain Would Make The Best President
http://tinyurl.com/3kevmr
It takes you to the Obama piece. What is going on?
A paper search shows the headline twice and they both lead to the pro Obama piece.
Search of paper
I just filled out the mccain contact form to let them know. Others might also if they can. Be sure to provide the link to the page on mccain’s site.
They took it down for McCain’s site now. I can’t comment at McCain’s blog, none of my comments post but I found it on the blog.
I finally found it…the Cached even took you to the Obama piece.
Why John McCain would make the best president
My pleasure to share these thoughts. I should have been mnore specific when I wrote about where to “park” your money. One can find short term CDs at north of 4% and very short term high quality municipals north of 5%.
IMO, I think we are looking at a deepening global recession for the next 18 to 24 months. I have already started to see a real increase in real estate auctions. Cash is King!!BE PATIENT. The largest and most diverse global enterprise is GE. Yesterday, even in the face of the 11% market rebound, GE was down .50.
I just got off the phone with a Republican Criminal Attorney – he is voting for Obama because he ‘believes the country needs to be shaken to its roots.’
I am going to 22nd Chicago Police District to engage in early voting and rock the ambulance chaser’s world by voting for McCain/Palin – I’m a Democrat.
http://hickeysite.blogspot.com/2008/10/john-mccainsarah-palin-get-my-vote.html
the country needs to be shaken to its rootsWhat a death wish.
Wrong. The country need to be stumped around the roots to firmly hold it in its place.
Lawyers -go figure. They firmly believe that they have the answer to everything, but have you ever watched one try to fill his gas tank at the pump?
Like monkeys with football!
Hey, Pat:
I resemble that remark.
Mea Culpa! Eamus O Tibliala Alba!~
Excuse me, we are lawyers. Never generalize.
Uh, someone should tell him that things could get worse not better, under Obama, and that any change is not the answer.
Haveyou ever tried to ‘tell’ a lawyer anything?
‘You’re in Denial Counselor!’
‘No I’m Not!’
The Republican Criminal Attorney is an idiot.
Why – he has Juris Doctor! Heavens . . .and he can leap tall building permit approvals with a single bound! Not to mention egtting mob-up JaMooks and Gangbangers reduced sentences.
The Good Lord saw the need for Mankind’s gastrointestinal evacuation apparatii and -FIAT LEGATII!
if you want to reduce this package to layman’s terms this package is the equivalent of a massive injection of capital/liquidity into a Ponzi scheme that was being played (whether they knew were playing it or not) by certain large financial institutions.
Pouring money in to a Ponzi scheme sounds like the exact wrong thing to do. Even worse is the banks that ran themselves in to the ground will get an injection of cash and banks that stayed out of the Ponzi scheme won’t. Seems to me some will be rewarded for bad behavior. What I’d like to know is how does the plan to save the US financial system put an end to the horrible actions of some banks that caused the problem to start with?
Sound like substantial rewards for the doers of misdeeds, doesn’t it?
Cupidity, calumny, mendacity…the New American Way of Life.
I thought they called it social security.
Hey, last night on Fox (Hannity) there was a pollster who said the only way McCain could win is if something big comes out about Obama in the next week. Then he went on to say, “like this young man being caught on the Pakistan border thing”. What???? How is that linked to Obama? There is more to this than meets the eye! Then Colmes quickly cut the guy off and moved on to another topic. It was THAT obvious!
Can someone tell me what is the link between that 20 year old man that was caught on the border and Obama? I know they confiscated his laptop,etc. Why would he say it? The mainstream media knows something we don’t right now! Someone please help!
I thought that was telling, too. Sometimes I feel so paranoid that I am seeing all these little clues that I figure I might as well sign into the insane asylum or at the very least, smoke pot and be even more paranoid.
Are these folks just playing with us and there are no stories coming? WTF? It better be big if it comes because I am very tired of being disappointed!
Remember this story a few months back. Maybe he was going to a terrorist traing camp.
“Dozens of white Europeans have trained in terrorist camps in Pakistan’s tribal regions in recent months, U.S. intelligence sources tell ABC News, in what officials fear may be the beginnings of a new breed of al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorism.”
http://hotair.com:80/archives/2008/06/21/abc-white-europeans-training-in-pakistani-camps/
What my question is, is this: what if you aren’t losing a lot, because you did not have anything invested, but what you are losing is your livelihood, or a reduction of the capacity to earn in a stale economy, so with not much to fall back on, and inflated prices everywhere, what will people do to get by? It is one thing to bite the bullet, so to speak, as an Upper Middle Class family, but for those of us in blue collar, middle income homes, we may not survive.
Is there any suggestion of an alternative of a better economy currently in another country? Because truthfully, my husband said, if Obama wins, and we become Socialists, and all the Obots take over, and the illegals end up with more rights than we have, what is the use in staying in America?
Both my husband and I are of Scots-Irish descent. I recently read the economy has been better in Northern Ireland, because with lowered corporate taxation of 11%, they have been attracting businesses to set up shop with them. Any truth to that rumor? If so, what would your recommendation be to a family who might be considering jumping back across the pond, or possibly heading north towards Canada?
I really enjoyed the article, Mr. Doyle, and I want to thank Larry Johnson for continuing to educate the NQ readers in a way that we can understand and assimilate this information into what this means for us. I sometimes feel when the Govt. meets, and votes, and makes decisions concerning our families, they are in fact, often telling us we don’t need to know the facts involved, we should just trust them to put our best interests first. Problem is, I don’t trust the Government anymore. I was never distrustful before the Bush Administration, but in the last few years, I distrust the Congress even more than those in the Bush Cabinet.
We are uncertain, and we are afraid.
I don’t trust the government either.
And I don’t think we should.
But reall — in America, we, the people, are the government and need to take back control of it.
We have allowed ugly partisanship to divide us as a nation.
Yes, I think the other problem associated with the scenario you describe is that our homes will lose their value and for lots of people the home is one of the main assets. That’s why I don’t care what happens to the bankers, but I want the government to stabilize the housing market.
Liz B:
As long as you live within your means, you’ll do OK. That may mean no cell phone(s), no Internet service, no cable TV, no dining out, taking the bus or riding a motorcycle instead of a car, selling your car(s) and maybe no phone service at all. Food, shelter, water, heat/AC…and that maybe all some will be able to afford and that is completely OK…what’s been wrong are the unreal media-inspired ideal of living way above one’s means such as seeing average employees living in million-dollar lofts in NYC (Sex and the City) or no-talent persons in L.A. living in a Holmby Hills mansion next to Beverly Hills (The Girls Next Door).
Everybody is going to have to do whatever they need in order to make ends meet.
As far as Canada is concerned, they have in the past required a net worth of $250k in order to emigrate. Not sure at all about Ireland or the UK, but I would think restrictions are in place to allow only UN-defined asylum-seekers or the wealthy to emigrate.
If you stay out of debt, you can do OK in any economy.
Take care, vote, and DO NOT BE AFRAID!
MG-PUMA
Good luck with that, MG. I’ve touted that as well on some liberal boards and am bashed as being ‘Republican’ or ‘blaming the victim’. Huh?
What is wrong with living within one’s means? If you can’t afford it, don’t buy it. Ride a scooter or bike. Work an extra part time job. Don’t get that ‘big game ticket’ on satellite and heaven forbid, forget that stupid big-screen tv and SUV.
However, these people very intent on screaming ‘foul’ when indeed they are the ones who have defaulted on sub-prime loans, with no downpayment, ARM payment schedules – rather than say “Oh, I shouldn’t have signed that agreement” they say “I was taken advantage of! Predatory lending!” Bullshit.
FloridaEx-Dem:
Yeah, I know, its like a crime to suggest living simply. Good grief.
Thank you for posting, at least I know I’m not the only Dem thinking simple living. Although I’m sure the Greenies would support me on this one too
MG-PUMA
MG, I was a long-time member of a liberal board and I’ve left it now, because I’m so disgusted by the attitudes of these people. They are not only eager to take all they can from the government and blame others for their own bad judgment, they won’t even BEGIN to consider living within their means. Anyone who suggests it is now a ‘Repig’ in their eyes. It’s really disgusting.
I thought I was disillusioned by the Bushbots in ‘04. Now? I am even more disillusioned by the Obots of ‘08. American is on a bad, bad path and unless McCain manages to pull some magic out of his hat, we’re really doomed with Obama as a ‘leader’. He’s the next Bush and his oBots? They’re far more dangerous and threatening than the Bushbots ever could have been.
WHERE OH WHERE is that October Surprise we need so badly??????
What do you think about a coalition within the Republican party?
Don’t laugh…we are doing it right now, in effect..
Maybe Hillary (and Bill) could switch parties and HRC could run as a moderate Republican? Just a thought…. Clinton/Jindal? or Whoever. Get the best of the best on the ticket in 2012. That may be the only thing that works.
The DNC has hijacted the Dem Party and moved it so far left that no moderate Dems will have a chance in the immediate future. The ultra-left-wing Dems also have tremendous DEEP POCKETS financial backing to propagate this far-left movement, so don’t expect it to turn around soon.
But moderate Dems DO have a chance in the Republican party…there used to be Liberal, Moderates, and Conservatives in BOTH parties years ago, right?
Reps need to be open to party re-building at this point — at least in forming a consensus of sorts before putting up a Presidential candidate.
Additionally, political philosophies and polsitions for individual elections (especially for Congressmen and State Officials) could return to what suited each individual candidate and his/her respective state…like in the good old days when you had a broader spectrum of political philosophies within each party…
I’m so sick of posts suggesting that Obama is going to win. He is NOT going to win.
I’m so sick of posts suggesting that Obama is going to win. He is NOT going to win.
********
Amen – I really don’t think he will either.
It’s just a big hype by the media to try and psych everyone out.
He sure as hell didn’t beat Hillary, she got the most votes in our country’s history. Remember the MSM repeatedly saying it was over for her, telling her to drop out.
Same thing is going on now. The ONLY way Barry will win is by fraud.
Thanks Larry Doyle,
When looking for quality investments, how can we be certain that the books are not being cooked?
You mentioned that the mark to market accounting principle may be suspended by the government. How can they consider doing so when we have witnessed scandalous accounting “principles” applied to other companies?
I think many of us are confused about the complexities of how these companies do business.
What I see is, that instead of looking at the incredible compensation packages and astronomical pay of CEO’s, we will see layoffs of the lower and middle class.
As an average American, I believe that the public’s trust is being violated by these giant corporations and the shrinking percentage of people handling the majority of the wealth in this world. The power lies in the hands of these few, and it appears to me that they have ties to governments and elected officials that push their agenda. Do you think that it is time to look more closely at the muddy water here? Is it time to bust up these big corporations and put limits on CEO pay?
I think that the disparity between the top and middle earners will become a huge issue. (Look at the outrage of American Airlines workers when the voluntary pay cut they took resulted in a surplus and bonuses to the CEO’s)
The middle class suffers while the CEO may have to sell one of his vacation homes. This idea does not sit well with the me, and I am certain that it will not sit well with my sister, who will have to decide between buying milk or bread for her children next week.
Yes, this is going to get rough, but I think that many Americans are going to get even angrier about the greed of Corporate America.
I think I understand your point about being able to cook the books if mark-to-market is suspended. The US Government may be forced to pay more for these toxic mortgages than what their current value is if mark-to-market is suspended. Is this right? Anyone’s welcome to reply.
I have to say it — I don’t trust Henry Paulsen one bit, and I have no confidence that his boss is smart enough to fairly judge the situation.
It is so unreal in this time of crisis that voters are willing to turn against the man who has the track record of reform and instead choose the man who promises to spend more and raise the taxes of those who give the jobs to others.
If nothing else, Obama supporters should be terrified that there will be NO checks and balances in our federal government.
Think about FDR. I don’t think Obama is any FDR but I believe people make that connection.
I have always believed a country’s “economy” is as good as the economy of its citizens. We have been living through what our financial institutions are just now experiencing; without any “bailouts” other than a couple of small amounts of our tax money returned to us; and it seems the only ones surprised about what happened were the officials who were supposed to prevent it.
After almost a decade of no financial incentives, maxed out on credit, no money to replace “big ticket items” that help fuel our economy We the People are running on empty like our car’s gas tank. And we’re not only tired of bailing out incompetents (second time in less than 30 years – they never seem to remember that we were still paying 3 trillion for the 1980s S&L bailout during the 1990s Clinton’s administration) but we’re tired of having the blame thrust upon us because we want a living wage for the labor we sell to corporate America.
While I do expect that we will ahve tough times over the next few years and perhaps longer, I certainly am not saying that this is the end of capitalism.
I think the American consumer needs to come to grips with the concpet of “living within one’s means”. How does one personally prosper? Developing real marketable skills, whether that be in technology, medicine, education, etc…
While as a nation we have mortgaged our future and those generations will be forced to deal with that burden, I remain convinced that this country will have plenty of opportunities for those who prepare themselves and take “prudnet” risks.
In terms of investments, you have to read the prospectus or marketing material thoroughly. Always ask “where is the risk” and how is it being managed and mitigated.
WOW! McCain’s new stump speech keeps getting better and better. He just finished speaking in PA: he had more specifics on his new economic plan and compared it point by point with BOs — effectively knocking the latter down and exposing it as harming small businesses, American workers, and the economy as a whole. He presented his plan clearly and very convincingly: transferable health insurance, no taxes on unemployment benefits, safety mechanisms on 401(k)s for those nearing retirement, an increase in tax credits for taxpayers with children, promoting job creation. Then he emphasized his experience without using the word “experience” : “Change is not a political slogan; change is something I’ve been doing my whole life.” Best of all — for the first time in months, McCain seems comfortable in his own skin, confident, at ease, and connecting with people. “Let’s fight for America and go out and win this election!” he said to the cheers of the crowd. I’m feeling a whole lot better than last week!
McCain is doing what he does best. He’s got his groove back. He has excellent plans to get the economy moving again. I’m so proud to be a McCain supporter and I’m so PROUD of all of you!
Good information in the article (as always from NQ). Thanks for posting it.
a good speech is not going to win the election this late in the game. after the debate tomorrow if all the Obama shit does not start hitting the fan, Hitler2 will be our next
presidentdear leaderI know. He is making it simple and simple to understand. He needs to explain the health care benefit a little better.
I like his attitude shift. The only thing that concerns me is he insists certain things be off the table. I think the fight is too serious to have someone with no experience or accomplishments. McCain’s future is secure, the future of the voters should be the priority…Wright should not be off the table… Obama’s birth status should not be off the table. The refusal of Obama to release his College/University info should not be off the table. McCain said Obama isn’t scary. McCain needs to step up and require Obama prove it. If McCain refuses to challenge Obama to produce his history (we have the right to know) it will be impossible for me to believe McCain even cares if he wins. It’s the voters future, the voters financial and national security, not McCain’s at stake here.
Senator McCain just gave another really good speech. I swear its like he is channeling his inner Hillary! He had another good ass line too, I am recorded it! Luvs it! You HAVE TO see it! Can we get this put up on NQR?
I swear the last part of his speech hits home because it reminds me of the Warrior Ethos!
I just watched this four times already!!! We NEED THIS UP!
Put it up!!
Love it! “Channeling his inner Hillary.”
I listened to several of McCain’s stump speeches yesterday and today and I agree: he’s energized, far more passionate then I’ve seen him in the past with a clear and focused message.
The warrior is back and now he’s rousing the troops. Keep the drumbeat up, Mac!
Good comments, Soldier!
I loved that ending of his convention speech. It taps right into my doubts about Obama: sure he wants to be president, but would he fight for America? Nah too hard.
HA! Move over Chris Matthews!THIS SPEECH gives you a tingle!! I LOVE the whole “rallying” the troops theme! This is how Commander in Chiefs are SUPPOSE to be!!
Thanks for this article about the markets. We have been wondering if it was time to just stuff the mattresses.
Our financial planners have been at a loss for words, too.
Obama must not be elected. If we think these markets are rough, just think what he could do to those that have worked hard, gotten up every morning to go to work, and have paid their bills and carefully educated themselves in the ways of being successful. Cut them off at the knees so that those who want easy street – in this case Obama socialist welfare – can just take it.
Dr. Zhivago, anyone?
I’ve thought of Dr. Zhivago repeatedly as I’ve listened to Obama’s redistribution of wealth comments.
“Infinitely more just…” – that is the line that I recall whenever Obama talks about who he is going to tax.
By the way, at Hillbuzz there are a couple of hypothetical scenarios that suggest a way to that a particular candidate could have used money-laundering schemes (Carribean location) to wash contributions from unknown sources.
Pretty innovative detective work.
Check out two separate articles (1) on OCT 13th and (2) on Oct 14th at Hillbuzz that reference MARTINIQUE in their title:
In the Oct 13th post the writer asks who a certain person is (a former Obama staffer)and asks why this person is now in Martinique.
in the Oct 14th post the writer now asks (hypothetically) if Martinique would be a good location for a money-laundering setup.
http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/14/would-martinique-be-a-good-place-to-run-a-multi-million-dollar-money-laundering-operation/
Whaddya think?
Yes!!
I liked McCain’s new stumper. He criticized Obama’s economic plans very effectively. He hit obama for his “i wanna spread the wealth around” Marxist slip.
He gave the Fight ending he did yesterday. Which is the way i think he should have been going all along.
Everyone wanted him to destroy Obama’s character. I agree it should be done. By us. Palin. Media.Rnc.
Not McCain.
He is a warrior. He should be seen as the unflappeable veteran. He is tough and wise and couragous.
McCain has the attributes of a real leader.
If you look at when he came back from Nam. He became the head of one of the largest navy base’s and it was the worst rated in everything.
When Mccain came he had them #1 and moral was way up.
You can find the story in his bio. It is a good example for now. Moral is done. THe country is slipping away.
McCain will come in and lead us to Reform.Prosperity.Peace.
That is his slogan. It fits though.
Stand up and fight with McCain to win this election!!
http://www.capitalresearch.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/chicago-the-barack-obama-campaign.pdf
The Article That ACORN Doesn’t Want You To See
By Matthew Vadum Monday, October 13, 2008
A complete version of the article from ACORN’s magazine that details the work that Barack Obama did for ACORN has surfaced.
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/5543
HA! The Cnn commentator is even shocked!! He couldnt even get his words straight! Obama watch out! Mccains coming for ya!!! This is what caused Senator Clinton to wipe Obama’s as$ in the primaries. When she got like this we carried her to the finish line. Even though she didnt win the battle, she fought it to the end and I will always support her!
Hillary lost because of the caucus shenanigans, crooked DNC/RBC and chicken shit delegates.
None of that in the GE to help The Precious limp over the finish line. The GOP is on to ACORN and there’s time to deal with it.
Mac/Palin ‘08
Obama Crowds Call For The Lynching Of Palin
http://electivedecisions.wordpress.com/2008/10/10/obama-crowds-call-for-the-lynching-of-palin/
They have a disclaimer at the bottom saying its satire
That is SATIRE and is categorized as such.
It’s also really shitty, poorly done satire.
You might want to label it as such if you post it anywhere else.
Oh, so now it’s “ok” to use the term “lynching” in association with the white, vp candidate…but let’s think about what would happen if someone did the same thing to nobama, even in the name of satire.
Lynching used in the same sentence with nobama’s name would provoke outrage and riots!
Well, you know how OUTRAGED the Obots were when McCain said he was going to ‘whip’ Obama in the debate. The screams of racist could be heard sea to shining sea.
Just a few of the facts the “mainstream press” has been suppressing for months, years really.
Obama Held Membership in Socialist New Party
Obama, ACORN & Their Starring Role in the Mortgage Crisis
Voter Fraud Unit and Terrorists Run Deep
The Real Obama
ABC, NBC and CBS want to keep Obama’s secrets
Proof Obama backed ruthless, foreign thug
FBI, Others Probe pro-Obama ACORN for Vote Fraud
Obama Campaign Runs Afoul of Finance Rules
Slanted NBC Profiles Boost Obama, Malign McCain
Secret, Foreign Money Floods Into Obama Campaign
Obama’s Harvard Years: Questions Swirl
Obama takes legal action to suppress pending suit over NO Birth Certificate
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/5534
WTF? Did Obama really say this:
no. that quote sounds like it’s out of this really crappy satire that I saw posted on another site.
Other than the typical white person comment The Precious has been very careful to hide his prejudice although the 20 years in the racist church and use of race baiting and threats of riots show the true evil soul of the bastard.
The portion in quotes are Obama’s words. Obama uses ‘old’ and ‘erratic’ to describe McCain. It was a campaign strategy Burton was trying to get the media to pick up.
Here’s Sept.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13947.html
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=9C50B6DD-18FE-70B2-A83260A4094BC22F
Here’s Oct.
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nation/bal-te.campaign10oct10002052,0,6368526.story
Lol! I only wish Obama were so coked up that he actually said that at a public rally!
That’s when you see see the hand of God delivering justice!
On topic, in the sense that if this video shows on all Fox affiliates in the battleground states, perhaps we would not have to worry about Obama’s socialist agenda – please ask your local stations to run this:
A FOX TOLEDO NEWS STATION REPORTED ON THE OBAMA BIRTH CERTIFICATE LAW SUIT.
Former UT law grad sues Obama, questions citizenship Last Edited: Monday, 13 Oct 2008, 9:27 PM EDT Created: Monday, 13 Oct 2008, 6:52 PM EDT
e-mail this to your local (home town) fox station ask them to report the same.
http://www.myfoxtoledo.com/myfox/pages/News/Politics/Detail?contentId=7637353&version=6&locale=EN-US&layoutCode=VSTY&pageId=3.14.1
Done. Sent to Miami affiliate, WSVN – plus suggested more Corsi, more Ayers, more ACORN.
yes, we have a rough road. But the majority of Americans can handle it. Personally, I like a challenge.
The people who won’t like what McCain wants to do will eventually have to get off their lazy asses and do something. And they won’t be wearing those vulgar shirts to any job.
I’m not an economic genius , so I have to rely on a few principles when trying to navigate my understanding of what’s going on… and they are:
1 – Of people commenting on the situation today, what have they said in the past… did they warn about this? Are they just jumping on the bandwagon? Are they desperately trying to retain their belief in a world that doesn’t exist? Etc..
2 – What historical events give any insight to now.
There is an economist out there who jives with both.. and he’s Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capitol.
I linked to the page in his website that has years of his appearances on Cable News warning of the complete collapse of the economy and the destruction of the US Dollar due to overwhelming massive debt and the coming global boycott of providing the US with any more credit.
I am not saying this to contradict the author above..but to add my own two cents.
Here is his latest commentary:
Does anyone disagree with this? I have to say that it’s hard for me to come up with any rebuttal.
I disagree and am an economist. Anyone who talks about complete collapse and destruction is a charlatan. I’ve been hearing this kind of talk as long as I can remember. Bunk. Not that there is no truth in what he says, there is always some truth in the greatest lies. He talks about profit from what is happening? he means “his” profit.
How much debt can the US Govt assume?
For how much longer will foreigners have faith that their loans will be honored?
What will the impact be on the Federal Budget if Interest Rates go double digits? Aren’t interest payments on the debt a significant portion of the budget already?
How can we ever pay the over 50 Trillion of debt to Social Sec and Medicare?
I’ve been reading Peter Schiff for about a year now. He’s right. Our nation is drowing in debt, at a personal and governmental level. It’s the reason things have gotten so bad so quickly. We have to get our spending under control. Obama’s spending spree in Washington is a sure fire way to send this country into a serious depression. I’m scared to death that it’s going to happen.
On a personal note; My husband and I paid off $45K in debt in about 15 months. It wasn’t easy, we had to cut in a lot of areas, but I’m so glad we did it. Buying what you can afford to buy and saving for a rainy day sounds old fashioned, but really is the best way to go.
Thanks for posting the article.
Oh shit they just gave McCain major props on CNN for his economics plan
The Commentator said it covers everyone from cradle to the grave! Translation? It is a very detailed plan!
I wonder if Hillary and Bill are secretly advising Mac?
Seriously, we know Donna and Karl used to share notes so who knows!
His plan is a good one. Now he needs to sell it. We ALL need to sell it.
Everyone here today, let’s all commit to getting familiar with Mac’s plan, and inform the doubting faithful, independents, and yes, even the Obamabots!! Let’s sell what’s good for America, and help John and Sarah move into the White House!!
WHIO’S WITH ME????!!!!!!
ME ME ME ME ME!!!!!!!!!!
Let’s spread the word, fellow McCainiacs!!
McCain/Palin ‘08
Here, hear! (Or hear, hear!) Whatever.
from John McCain’s blog: http://www.johnmccain.com/blog/
Former Ambassador under President Clinton, Mark Erwin, wrote today that he is endorsing John McCain for President.
“Sen. Obama does not yet have sufficient leadership experience. He has never led so much as a Boy Scout troop. I am not comfortable thinking of him as the leader of the greatest nation on earth as his first real executive job. In 2007, his running mate, Sen. Joe Biden, said, “I think he can be ready, but right now I don’t believe he is. The presidency is not something that lends itself to on-the-job training.”
And I wouldn’t trust my Boy Scout with him!
And Biden was being kind! LMAO.
I trust Obama. I trust him:
1. To raise taxes on everyone who pays taxes.
2. To ruin every every major corporation by confiscating their ‘windfall profits’.
3. To redistribute said ‘windfall profits’ to community organizers across the USA.
4. To subvert the Constitution.
5. To appoint Judges who will ‘make America right’, regardless of any law or the Constitution. The Communist Manifesto will be their guide.
6. To appoint fellow America haters to his cabinet.
7. To turn our Republic into a 3rd World Direct Democracy.
8. To *regulate* firearms out existence for citizens.
9. To surrender / capitulate, to every enemy of the USA.
10. To turn the US Military into some feel-good, Public Works organization.
11. To *give* reparations to any person with ‘one drop’. No matter when they came here or where they came from. Slavery will have nothing to do with it. (guess he’ll have to pay himself).
12. To establish a Black Panther like ‘Civilian Security Force’ with Police powers. Whites need not apply.
13. To reorganize the DoJ so ‘hate crimes’ or ‘hate speech’, will be priority #1.
14. To empty federal prisons off all Blacks, as they were victims of a bigoted, pro white, justice system.
15. To eliminate all U.S. borders, as borders are racist.
16. To make the USA subservient to the U.N.
17. To turn America into Zimbabwe and run like the USSR.
And I trust Obama ….. to have Race Riots and a Civil War within his 1st 100 days in office. Every major city will burn and the streets will run red with blood.
Condor/FR
Bush did a some of the list you posted. Faith based initiative funneled tax payer money to religious groups. DoJ firing of US Attorneys for political reasons. Subvert the Constitution with the wire taps, treatment of “detainees,” etc. Is this on your list? Appoint cronies not qualified for senior positions such as “Job well done Brownie.”
Mac is not Bush, for sure. I just wanted to put the list in perspective. The list seems a bit tin-foil hat paranoid and extreme even for The Precious BUT since he has a radical past he refuses to acknowledge maybe the paranoia is warranted?
Did Real Clear take down the readers articles?
Mr. Doyle, what do you think is happening and will happen with housing prices? I was looking at houses this weekend in SE New England, and I was surprised that people are still asking a lot for their property. For example, I looked at house where the owner bought it at the end of 2003 for $170K and now wants $265K. I also looked at recent sales in the town and was really surprised that people are still paying, what appears to be, 2004-like prices. What gives?
Peopel can ask whatever they want for their homes but that does not really mean anything. What you need to review is the level at which homes are actually selling. If homes are sellin at 2004 levels, then determine the median prices from 2005, 2006, 2007 and you can track the market. No market ever moves in a straight line and peopel do need to live so “value” is always in the eye of the beholder.
I do believe that with unemployment bound to move higher, credit getting tighter, rates (the price of money) likley to move higher, that home prices will move lower. That said, home values will actually hold up relative to other financial assets. Stocks are down 35% or thereabouts from a year ago and IMO likely headed lower.
Hope this helps.
Your realtor should know the “comparables” in any neighborhood where you’re looking: the prices other houses sold at. People can’t just list their homes for any sum they like, unless they have a really irresponsible realtor. You can always get an appraisal and sellers have to respect that. The bank won’t lend more than the appraised value of the house.
Paul Krugman won the Nobel Prize.
As most remember, he had high praise for HRC’s health and financial plans.
Didn’t think much of Obama’s.
Krugman stood by the Clintons through all of the media jeering and Obama herding.
Paul Krugman is an asshole. He never has a good word to say about anyone or anything. He’s a professional cynic.
Paul Krugman praised Hillary consistently. He has written that Obama’s economic plan will bankrupt the country.
Now Krugman has slurped the Kool-Aid, and sings the praises of his new messiah, while trashing Sen. McCain. I used to be a big fan and regular reader of Krugman’s articles, as one of the few remaining readable pieces in the New York Times…now, not so much.
Thanks for the interesting insight, Larry. I wonder if you have thoughts on the two economic plans offered by the candidates?
Isn’t that kind of a pointless exercise? Does anyone honestly think an Obama presidential agenda while in office would even remotely resemble what his “plan” says now?
At his core Obama’s plan will IMO turn our economy towards a Depression. The way that his core plan is scripted is actually a strong disincentive for those on both ends of the economic spectrum to work. If you make 38k and are receiving the largesse of BO’s tax cuts (actually it is an income redistribution not a tax cut because this income level has no real tax consequence) then why work to move up and lose that redistribution. At the upper end an increase in taxes makes the marginal return on working capital that much less. Obama has proposed increasing taxes on those entities that create jobs and an increase in protectionism. These were the exact programs that Hoover implemented.
Actually, if you look at BO’s short term “fix” it is actually a version of McCain’s plan all along. Provide incentives for small businesses to create jobs. Do not penalize people by forcing them to withdraw from their 401Ks. Work with banks to help people remain in their homes.
Meanwhile the markets are down 3-5% on the day with interest rates up jsut slightly. Cash is KING!!!
One written vote for Hillary is a vote for Obama, let’s face it. Please don’t do this- it is a waste of a vote. Staying home is also a stupid move. To dismantle Obama, we must vote for Mccain’s ticket. Period. While we are not on the subject, what happen to Corsi’s big news- all of sudden he is ill- all the hype and nothing is produc-I guess he is trying to write his next smashing book and we have to wait after the annointed one is in office. I think Corsi is talking out of his butte. All just to sell the next book…………….very disappointing…..hope it is not illness from the same chemical given to that russian guy from Putin.
I have already done my duty and voted McCain/Palin in Arizona on an early ballot!
Get busy and get McCain/Palin elected
Please help save America!
Thank you Mr Doyle :0)
Just a note,
Sarah Palin is calling into Rush Limbaugh at 1:30 EST today if anyone is interested.
Thanks, I’ll be listening.
Americans can deal with loss – it happens all the time, but I think the thing that is scaring many Americans is the prospect of Obama getting elected (and all that means) and not having a chance to re-create the wealth they lost.
Right now we do have that opportunity.
With socialism/communism the opportunity is gone.
Right now this is the land of opportunity for we, the people.
Obama and his thugs want to change it into the Land of Opportunity for him and those that are behind him – only!
three really good opinion pieces in the Wall Street Journal today:
Shouting ‘Fannie!’ in a Crowded Congress:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122394164409530901.html
Obama & Acorn: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122394051071230749.html
John Lewis’ race grenade: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122394063621930725.html
Thank you for your insightful post. It’s hard for non-financial people to understand what’s been happening.
Your post dovetailed well with McCain’s speech today–I thought there were lots of good ideas that every income level voter could relate to. And his ideas weren’t all about expensive new plans which we can’t afford.
PREDICTION: HILLARY IN 2012
The Election of Carter in 76 usherd in Reagan in 80.
The election of Obama will usher in Hillary in 2012.
Under Obama:
The stock market will bottom at 5,200
Unemployment will rise to 40 – 50% ( 1933, top Hoover/FDR unemployment was 25%)
Inflation rate will average 27% a year for four years.
Many Schools, hospitals and all Senior Citizen centers will close.
Food Milk and Gas prices will triple each year.
People will stand sholder to sholder with shotguns to fight off tax forclosures.
Riots will break out in every major city and will turn into race wars with armed “Protected Turf”.
Brigades of the U.S. Military are already being trained up for when they will be called on to restore and maintain order.
The Border WILL be locked down and Immigrants forced to leave because we will not be able to feed or protect them.
Rual areas will return to Local Enforcement of civil order.
Public executions will return to set examples of “Tough Justice”.
Obama will blame Bush for everything, which will wear thin by Mid Term in 2010 when the Dems. will loose seats in both House and Senate.
The Media will “discover” that Obama and ACORN stole the Election and Nomination.
By 2012, Hillary will be THE person with the experience, the trust, and the IQ to save the Country.
It will be a hard four years and the Main Stream Media, because they refused to vet Obma in the Primaries, is responsible.
Untill then,
Good Luck Everybody,
Hillary already announced that she would not run in 2012, more likely, a Newt Gingrich rennaisance.
If Obama wins in 2008, Obama will get the presidential nod again in 2012. Not Clinton.
Nothing will change in the democrat party if Obama wins in 2008.
Obama winning validates Dean, Brazile and the dirty Chicagoland politics we see today. Why would they change?
Obama might lose in 2012 to some republican, but not to Hillary. Thats just not how it works, unfortunately.
Excellent article, thank you. I was sad to hear you predict that commodity prices would remain high. That’s not good for those of us who like to eat or need to drive long distances for work.
Thank you for sharing you thoughts. It sounds about right to me.
Bill O’Reilly had a funny bit today on his radio program.
Said, “If I have to choose between a tax-and-spend Democrat or a Don’t Tax-and-spend Republican, I’ll take the Democrat. *haha
Ultimately the price of housing is linked with salaries/wages. You can’t buy what you can’t afford. MCCain’s stuborn advocacy of NAFTA etc (the continuing outsourcing of jobs & importing of cheap labor) cannot sustain a housing boom. Remittances sent south of the border do not trickle though our economy. Republicans seem to enjoy mass lay offs as they usually result in the companies stock going up. It’s like they completely miss the correlation between money not being earned & declining housing prices, ergo furthur strain on financials. Dems, on the other hand, just keep digging us in further with their never ending schemes i.e. the CRA, government funded down payments, etc. Both have done nothing to stop the mass securitazation of debt being sold as an “asset” & powerful hedge funds who have the power to move a stock lower with massive short bets, moving around completely unregulated. I agree with Larry Doyle’s pronouncement that this is one big ponzi scheme, however I differ in thinking it was inadvertent. Plenty of us saw this coming & we don’t have MBA’s from Harvard, just a tad of common sense, something that’s completely lacking in DC. My problem: I saw it coming, I just misjudged how close it was to the door, staved off quite a bit of loss by ditching all of my bank stocks, with exception of 50 little shares of HCBK. Never got into credit card debt, sold off my rental properties a yr before the top, own my house outright. I did get chumped by buying into the bs about China/India & runaway commodity run ups so I’m eatin’ losses on dry bulk shippers, steel & deep sea drillers…think (hope) my energy stocks will hobble back…I’m not happy, only time will tell about some of my other decisions. Pelosi’s idea of another 150Billion for infastructure will no doubt result in a jobs corp for more illegales, maybe its just where I live but I see only hispanic people working on large construction projects, especially the government funded stuff. I’m 80% in cash & even that ain’t helpin’ me sleep better at night. So far I’m fighting off the temptation to put mo’ money in the markets just to cost average down & weasel out the back door. I’m sticking with my original theory: We’re being “regularized”. It sucks!!!
Thanks for offering your expert opinion, Larry. I wish more people would have used this thread to discuss your post as I think many of us are very interested and concerned.
I don’t have much, but my adviser has less than 1/2 my $$ in stocks right now, mostly to generate income. He’s done very well so far and I haven’t been hit as hard as much of the market, but I fear it’s only a matter of time and waiver between getting out of the market altogether or continuing to take the risk. I guess in the end that’s what it’s all about — how much risk one is willing to take. And no one really knows where the bottom is.
Obama only wants to “fix” the economy so he’ll have a bigger tax base to raid for his socialist projects. Larry Doyle, you’re right, why bother trying to make mo’ money? Me? I’m just treading water & trying to preserve principle. MCCain? he just wants to piss away mo’ money in Iraq, what’s the difference? Pissin’ money is still pissin’ money or don’t you factor the cost of the wars into your economic theories? Even my lousey General Dynamics stock is in the tank.
Larry Doyle,
Thanks for your interesting views and opinions on where this behemoth is heading.
It will be interesting to see how the tension between Global and National economic forces play out.
This am the French President, in his role as the head EU person, took a shot at Bush saying basiclly , Hey Bush, you’re a day late and a dollar short.
This has political implications worldwide.
Who do you think will be left holding the bag?
IMO, for the long haul those with marketable skills will always win. There is no substitute for education and experience. Taking prudent risk while living within one’s means if not below one’s means is an equation for real long term success.
I do agree with you that there are very real global political implications. Iceland is effectively bankrupt right now. They are in the process of negotiating a loan from Russia. Iceland is in a very strategic geographical location. Do you think that if Russia provides a financial lifeline that they may have some leverage over that country.
Thank you very much, Mr. Doyle (and also, again, thanks to Larry Johnson) for taking the time to give us this important info, analysis and recommendations. Your clear explanations and insights are much appreciated!
Am I the only one here who think that the real estate market is one of the ways to preserve capital?
The truth is, a lot of housing market is seriously depressed. Like some part of SF bay area, it’s down 50%. At the same time, rent had increased more than 20%. Not saying that everyone will have the stomach for it, but it’s a good way to fight inflation and rising interest(so long as you have fixed rate mortgage). I see cash as a bad way to preserve your money. As inflation picks up and income freeze, you can get less your money all the time. The financial market is too risky, and commodity market is not for everyone.
I think if people buy real estate base on income and expense(fixed rate), they will come out ahead in the long run.
I agree. The key to real estate is always the point of entry (purchase price vs potential rental income) and location, location, location. I would put this in the category of buying 1. quality and 2. hard assets.
Obviously the dynamics in different real estate markets around the country are decidedly different.
I do think that you will see an increase in “real estate auctions” of foreclosed properties which may allow for some real bargain hunting.
I was actually thinking of wait 6 months after the price stabilized. Real estate market generally don’t bounce back right away. From my experience, it will solidify at the bottom for a year or two before it trend up again.
When do you think is a good time to get in?
AndySF….Nobody is every fully capable of perfectly timing the market. That said, I think what you should do is track the “real estate transactions” in your area. Where properties actually trade is critically important as opposed to where properties are listed.
I do think that real estate will likely get cheaper but that it will outperform financial assets.
The best deals often are those where “property offerred by owner” because those listings eliminate the brokerage fee and the owners are typically more motivated.
Do your homework so you know where the market is as oppsoed to having a broker tell you where the market is. Said with all due respect to real estate brokers.
Very glad to see sober financial news on NoQuarter. Perfect addition to NQ commentary.
buy QUALITY
What is “quality” in this context?
Is it an investment vehicle that is measured by it’s durability?
Is it to be measured by what one calls the “status quo” of valuation?
Is it to be measured by “the change we need”?
Historically, is not value created by a thing we make? The hard fact is this country does not even make shoes. On the train from NY to Boston, as a teenager, I saw the rusting factories that made them once. So if they are gone and we are coming to the twisted end of the “service industry” era, what lies ahead that can be called “quality” as measured against these uncharted waters?
In the absence of the dollar as a common denominator for world trade, will other forms monetary dynamics take hold? Perhaps a variation Islamic banking?
“http://www.universityislamicfinancial.com/deposit.html?gclid=CO7×7b3_p5YCFQkiagoddwQ_zQ”
Petro-dollars, while currently a major aspect of the global economy, will not be sustainable, as the resource itself is in its twilight.
To be sure, being able to recognize where this was headed 24 months ago, with the foresight to transition one’s assets into “quality” investments and avoid this abyss is not something CalPers availed themselves to.
The largest Pension fund in the country is off 33%. With a target of 10% growth and a floor of 7%, is completely exposed to a Chicago style “cook off”, the likes of which Rezko only dreamed of.
The recovery period time frame I hear mentioned range from 2 years to 10 years.
But what is it the American people will “recover”? Can they recover the time that was lost?
So far what I see happening, is that the price of bondage that is what each man woman and child owes, in this country, has tripled in six months.
There is no liberty retained in this and as such is Un-Constitutional. Can I have my economic freedom back? Or is that not reasonable to ask? This is the basic question that was asked by our “founding mothers and fathers” as they struggled under the Kings offense.
I don’t want a hand out, but that is what BOTH candidates are offering. That is the admission they must pay to gain admittance to this freak show.
“http://counterterrorismblog.org/2008/09/wall_street_collapse_enhances.php”
I don’t think people are asking if the bottom will fall but when it will fall. Many businesses are using credit to fund payroll. That is not a good sign. They will fall soon and more people will be out of work. Those folks that don’t have a trade or education will not have options. They are the ones that get hurt in this mess. I would prefer to use government money to help teach people “how to fish” so they do have more options when times get tough. There are no guarantees in life but Americans can position themselves so they can weather the storms of life!
I also would love if America would dismiss the victim mentality from it’s vocabulary. Once someone buys into that role they are easily exploited by people that are only interested in their own gain.
This election is not about race or a party. It is about a person, and can we trust that person?? We should divorce our minds from party plateforms and look at the people and what they represent.
I personally feel we need to vote out Congress and get a new, fresh face. The supreme court took away the idea of term limits but we can still vote them out so we can get a new group of Congress members. If just half of the country does this for 2-3 elections we can break the back on the hold Congress has on this country and scare them into coming around to representing “we the people”.
The really sad part is that after the election Americans will fall asleep again and become consumed with Paris Hilton rather then keeping watch. American is in cultural denial and wants to remain so it seems.