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Likely Voters Vs. Registered Voters–Or What’s REALLY Going On in the Polls

By Uppity Woman on October 18, 2008 at 8:10 AM in Barack Obama, Electability

It’s about time pollsters started polling the way they have polled in the past instead of this touchy feely “Let’s Make Obama Look Good” routine we have been witnessing.

I don’t exactly know why pollsters have been giving Obama special treatment for the first time in the history of Presidential polling. But then again, Obama gets special treatment from everybody. It’s time to stop shielding this manchild.

Here is Gallup on Likely Voters, which for some “odd” reason fails to make their headlines. Likely voters are the people who are likely to actually show up at the polls.

The “traditional” likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections. Today’s results show Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain using this likely voter model, 49% to 47%, this is within the poll’s margin of error. — Frank Newport

Cut the crap Gallup. Start putting the real polls up front instead of the Obama-Specials. We have enough skunks protecting The One in this election already.