Gallup: 49-47

Have any of you seen this about Governor Palin? It’s good!
http://www.stoptheaclu.com/archives/2008/10/17/what-you-dont-know-about-governor-sarah-palin/

{uppity, forgive me but I had to share this article:}

Another one of us but she was a speech writer for Obama, Edwards (in this election), and Clinton(earlier in ‘03), Wendy Button: So long Democrats..

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2008-10-28/so-long-obama/

Wow, this is what reasonable people with any conscience will do in this election.

Thanks Uppity!! I’ve expected the polls to tighten as the election draws nearer, they almost always do. And now it’s time for the great groundswell of quiet, non-harassing, law-abiding, leave-Obama-voters-blogs-signs-and-bumper-stickers-alone citizens (in other words the polar opposite of Obots–you know who you are) to come out of hiding and wash over the polling booths next Tuesday. The pollsters, MSM and Obots will be foaming at the mouth.

Here are men and women defending this country, and we can’t be bothered to somehow ensure that their votes count? WTF is happening here?

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/28/troop.vote/

Something is going on in Pennsylvania polling, that’s for sure. They seem to be spending a lot of time in a state that is supposedly solid for Obama. Same thing in VA. You don’t spend that much time in a state this late in the game unless it is in play.

Uppity, I was just over at your site and caught an interesting bit from InsightAnalytical.com:

want, no make that need, you to join me in supporting a critical nationwide movement. This Wednesday, October 29, 2008, Senator Barack Obama has purchased half-hour blocks of programming on NBC, CBS, and Fox News Channel. His intent, I firmly believe, is to use Neuro Associative Conditioning (NAC) and Ericksonian Hypnosis to subconsciously influence millions of voters to “pull the lever” for him on November 4th whether they want to or not. We must do everything possible to stop the American public from watching.

Please boycott his infomercial…and visit InsightAnalytical to read the entire piece.
I voted McCain/Palin, yesterday!!!!!!!!!!

My wife and I both delegates for Hillary voted straight Republican.
My mother who has voted for every democrat since Adlai Stevenson voted straight republican along with her husband.
Everybody that was for Hillary at my plant is voting McCain.
Even the bean counter who keeps my company in the black who was originally for Obama said the other day that we have no choice but to vote for McCain.

OT

PRUDEN: A game-changer by Obama

If your toilet is stopped up by something really big and smells really bad, you’ll probably need a plumber. Joe the Plumber, as it turns out, diagnosed the trouble, and yesterday we learned what it was. It smells really bad.

The tape recording of an interview that Barack Obama gave to Radio Station WBEZ in Chicago in 2001 surfaced, and in that interview Mr. Obama, then a law professor and a state senator, lays out how he would redistribute the wealth. He sounds like a man with a plan.

Interestingly enough, there was a poll on CNN.com today that asked “Have you decided who you will support for president”?

94% said yes, but 6% still claim not to have made up their minds. If this is an accurate sampling of the electorate as a whole, McCain still has a shot. If that six percent were to break 5% for McCain and 1% for Obama, that would be a net gain of 4 percentage points. Add to that a “Bradley Effect” that I think will be worth maybe 2-3% of the vote, and you have a very plausible scenario for a McCain win.

But the remaining undecideds will have to break strongly for McCain. Also, if he loses Virginia, he’s toast. Granted, he has to win the obvious states like Ohio, FLorida, and Colorado. But I’ve played around with the electoral college numbers quite a bit and I can’t see a victory scenario for McCain that doesn’t include Virginia.

I don’t believe Gallup. McCain’s farther ahead than the pollsters are willing to report.

In their quest to crown Obama in almost every state during the primary, virtually ALL of the MSM pollsters blew their credibility. Projecting Obama the winner in states that he clearly lost. And this definitely isn’t the first election cycle that they screwed up in.

I was sent this information via email and I have to admit, it made me smile:

Interesting Poll from our guys and gals serving… I’m glad to know our men and women in uniform know what’s right.

In case you missed this week’s issue of the Army Times here are the results of the Army Times’ poll of Military personnel re: the election

As of 10/3/08: http://www.militarytimes.com/static/projects/pages/081003_ep_2pp.pdf

Overall
68 McCain 23 Obama

Army
68 McCain 23 Obama

Navy
69 McCain 24 Obama

Air Force
67 McCain 24 Obama

Marines
75 McCain 18 Obama

Retirees
72 McCain 20 Obama

White Non-Hispanic
76 McCain 17 Obama

Hispanic
63 McCain 27 Obama

Black/African-American
12 McCain 79 Obama

Enlisted
67 McCain 24 Obama

Officers
70 McCain 22 Obama

McCain has to win both Virginia and Colorado ….

or……

Pennsylvania.

If Obama wins Virginia and Pennsylvania early in the evening, take your tranquillizer and go to bed.

I thought everybody here at NQ would like to see this. It states everthing that all of us have read or confirmed by eye witnessed accounts on the ground. It looks like McCain is getting at least 20% of the PUMA vote. I left off the comments because they are infected with Bots. We are in the game and will win in the end. JM/SP 08.
Elizabeth Holmes reports from battleground Pennsylvania on the presidential race.

John McCain’s campaign has seen “significant” progress in internal polling in the last week, Republican pollster Bill McInturff said Tuesday, with notable strides among rural voters and soft Democrats.

McInturff, the campaign’s chief pollster, made a case for the viability of the campaign in a memo to the strategy team, which was released to the media late Tuesday. The campaign has seen the race between McCain and Barack Obama move “significantly over the past week,” McInturff said. “All signs say we are headed to an election that may easily be too close to call by next Tuesday.”

To be sure, public polling data both nationally and in battleground states tell a different story. Obama has a several-point lead nationally and has broken the 50% barrier in many battleground states.

But each campaign conducts extensive polling of its own and, according to McInturff, the McCain campaign has reason to be hopeful.

“The strongest sub-groups for McCain are non-college men and rural voters of both genders,” McInturff said. The campaign has also seen more reason to hope that they will get more than a “20% chunk” of soft Democrats. “Wal-mart women,” which the campaign describes non-college-educated women in households making less than $60,000 a year, are “swinging back solidly,” McInturff said.

Undecided voters make up about 8% of the electorate in battleground states, McInturff said, and represent an older, rural and economically challenged voter bloc. McInturff said their surveys had found them to be “quite negative” and “seek change,” but tend to skew Republican.

“This partisan advantage is a critical element to understanding our capacity to ‘get’ these voters,” McInturff said.

Also, because of Obama’s overwhelming strength among African American voters, McInturff concluded that many of the undecideds are either white or Latino.

McInturff predicted extraordinarily high voter turnout — as much as 130 million voters — based on the level of excitement and interest in this election. Voters polled in 2000 were asked to rate their interest on a scale of one to 10; a little more than half picked 10. This year, however, that percentage is climbing steadily as Election Day nears, with 81% of respondents Monday night offering up a 10. “Wow,” McInturff wrote in the memo.

The highest turnout will come from two demographic groups predisposed towards Obama: African American voters and voters age 18-29.

In Joe the Plumber, the campaign seems to have found a storyline that sticks. Nearly six out of 10 voters in battleground states said they had heard “a lot” about that storyline, with more than eight in 10 saying they had heard “a lot” or “some.” The campaign has also succeeded in labeling Obama a liberal, according to McInturff, with 59% of respondents in battleground states describing him as such.

Full memo after the jump:

TO: McCain Strategy Team
FROM: Bill McInturff, Lead Pollster, McCain-Palin 2008; Partner, Public Opinion Strategies
RE: State of the Race and Ballot Position
DATE: October 28, 2008

First, let’s be clear: This is a hard election to “predict.”

The historic nature of the candidates on both tickets, the huge influx of unregulated money by the Obama campaign, the dour public mood, and the unique level of voter interest all suggest an historic level of turn-out, not witnessed in over 40 years.

Our models/understanding of what is coming is therefore necessarily projective, but, here is what we know for sure:

The McCain campaign has made impressive strides over the last week of tracking.

The campaign is functionally tied across the battleground states … with our numbers IMPROVING sharply over the last four tracks.

The key number in our mind is Senator Obama’s level of support and the margin difference between the two candidates.

As other public polls begin to show Senator Obama dropping below 50% and the margin over McCain beginning to approach margin of error with a week left, all signs say we are headed to an election that may easily be too close to call by next Tuesday.

1. We are witnessing a significant shift across the battleground states.

The race has moved significantly over the past week, closing to essentially tied on the last two-day roll. These gains are coming from sub-groups it should be possible to sustain over the next week, including:

Non-college men;
Rural voters, both men and women;
Right-to-life voters; and most encouragingly;
We are beginning to once again get over a 20% chunk of the vote among soft Democrats.
Importantly as well, our long identified target of “Walmart women” – those women without a college degree in households under $60,000 a year in income are also swinging back solidly in our direction.

Finally, in terms of critical improvement, even as this track shows more Republicans voting for us than Democrats supporting Obama, we are witnessing an impressive “pop” with Independent voters.

As I said during our Sunday briefing, we do substantially more interviews per day than any public poll, but, given the shift we were witnessing, it was my expectation that by Tuesday/Wednesday multiple public polls would show the race closing. A quick glance at Real Clear Politics would indicate this is happening by today, Tuesday, and that’s good!

2. It is not surprising we are witnessing this closing as we are finally having an opportunity to run a campaign that focuses on Senator Obama’s record on taxes and his lack of experience.

We are tracking how much people have seen, read, or heard about a number of thematic elements from both campaigns, including the false charges about Senator McCain’s health care plan, being out of touch on the economy, and the Obama’s campaign charges about Medicare. At the same time, we are testing awareness of “Joe the Plumber,” Senator’s Biden’s quote about his own running mate being so inexperienced it invites being tested by our enemies around the world, and Obama’s proposals that will raise federal spending by a trillion dollars.

This has been the week where “Joe the Plumber” has literally become a household name. An astounding 59% of voters in these battleground states have heard “a lot” about this story, 83% have heard “a lot” or “some” about this episode.

The 59% “a lot” dwarfs the other stories/thematic elements we are tracking this week.

The campaign’s relentless focus has helped strengthen our margins on the issue of taxes and broadened as well to the attribute of handling the economy and jobs.

3. Our opponent is being correctly perceived as the most liberal nominee in modern times.

In our tracking, now 59% of battleground voters describe Senator Obama as being a “liberal,” a percentage that is higher than previous Democrat losers Gore/Kerry, and significantly higher than for President Clinton and President Carter.

A majority (54%) of voters profile as saying Senator Obama is more liberal than they see themselves politically.

As Senator Obama’s profile as a “liberal” increases, it has helped further erode his support among key sub-groups.

4. Turn-out IS going to go through the roof.

Public Opinion Strategies has been using a 1 to 10 scale to help look at self-described interest in the election since 1993. In 1996, in our last track, 48% of voters described their interest in the election as a “10.” In 2000, the last track was 54% saying “10.” Remarkably, in 2004, our last track had self-described “10s” at 75% of the electorate.

You need to understand we are witnessing a day-to-day trend of serious magnitude as self-described “10s” increase in every roll.

Last night, 81% of voters described their interest in this election as a 10! Wow.

Here is the importance of this number: We have watched as turn-out has gone up in the last three presidential elections from roughly 96 million voters in 1996, to 104 million voters in 2000, to a whopping 122 million voters in 2004.

I now believe turn-out will begin to approach levels not seen since other comparable presidential campaigns in 1960 and 1968.

In today’s terms, that could mean breaking the barrier of 130 million voters!

There is simply no model that begins to know or predict the composition of the electorate at this level of turn-out.

My own view … and our own weights in our surveys … reflect a belief that African American turn-out will be at historic levels, there will be a significant boost with voters 18 to 29 years old, yet the overall high level of turn-out will begin to mute the increase in the percentage these sub-groups represent in the overall electorate.

5. There is more elasticity in this campaign than is imagined.

We have merged all of our interviews over the last three plus weeks to identify undecided and respondents who “refuse to respond” on the ballot question. This can be as high as one out of ten voters, but is generally about eight percent (8%) of the electorate in battleground states.

These voters might generally be non-voters in most cycles. But, in this cycle, 61% describe their interest in the election as a 10. This is higher than the last track among ALL voters in 1996 and 2000.

These voters are older, downscale, more rural, and are certainly economically stressed. They are quite negative about the direction of country and seek change. They voted for Bush over Kerry by a margin of 47% to 24% and this partisan advantage is a critical element to understanding our capacity to “get” these voters.

They have significant hesitations about Senator Obama’s experience and judgment.

Given an Obama TV media barrage we have not witnessed since the last candidate to run without public financing, Richard Nixon in 1972, and the daily drumbeat about Obama’s chances, given their demographics, it is my sense these voters WILL vote in this election and WILL break decisively in our direction.

These undecided/refuse to respond voters breaking decisively against Senator Obama mirrors the pattern of the last two months of the Democrat primary season.

When they do break, I believe they will add a net three plus points to our margins.

6. I am becoming more and more convinced Senator Obama “gets what he gets in the tracking.”

Typically a Republican candidate trails among African Americans on a survey by a margin of something like 78% to 14%. As a firm, we consistently warn our clients that on Election Day, they will underperform their polling margins with African American voters. If their tracking says 78% - 18%, they should expect to only carry 8% of the African American vote, as the Democrat candidate will typically carry more than 90% of the African American vote.

Senator Obama’s numbers are different than anything we have ever seen before among African Americans.

In most polls, McCain is losing these African American voters by margins like 97% to 1%.

This means when you see Senator Obama’s number in a survey, it already reflects his significant and full support among African American voters.

Functionally, this means the only undecided/refuse to respond voters are white and Latino.

So, in a state like Indiana where he has recently “led” Senator McCain, in most tracks, Senator Obama is at 46% to 47% of the vote.

I am becoming increasingly persuaded it will be very difficult for Senator Obama to perform much above his percentage of the vote in a state. This puts any number of historically red states very much “in play” and MUCH more competitive than is generally believed by the media. But critically, as Obama drops below 50% in other blue states, some of these states may also becoming back in play as well

I can’t top the enlisted vote tally above, but I did wheel my WW2vet 88 yr old dad into the Randall’s grocery store this saturday in Austin, Tx. to assist him in voting straight ticket Republican.

I would not have been so eager four years ago, but then he didn’t need my assiatance then. I was glad to help. I will be doing something like that in my county Thursday. There will still be one Democrat I will vote for. The lines are long and the voting is up by threefold in Texas. I can’t tell what that means. I just hope it is fair.

I think the Bradley effect could be closer to 5%. We will know early on when the polls close.

Virginia and Pennsylvania will tell the tale. Then Ohio and Florida. If they all go to McCain then That One is in serious trouble.

Lots of ifs but I’m seeing the possiblity.

There is no way the pollsters can gauge the PUMA effect and they have no clue what the Bradley effect will be. I’d say they understimated both.

Just my opinion, I could be wrong. It’s happened before.

If anyone needs a laugh:

“Why is this guy never supposed to do anything, take any position or win a debate before being declared the winner?”

“Obama still has the main characteristics that led me to support him. He didn’t drop dead during the debate, which means he still has a pulse. His penis didn’t drop off during the debate,which means it’s still attached. I don’t have any other real requirements, he can eat puppies onstage for all I care.”–the punditry

undecided? naw they have decided. they aren’t telling. that’s all and those are not your typical outspoken bots. naw, they’ll go for mccain in big numbers.

i think the pollsters are starting to tell the truth now because they don’t have much choice.

“Petition L.A. Times to Release Alleged Khalidi Tape” petition at http://www.thepetitionsite.com/1/americans-want-the-truth.

In the Pennsylvania and Ohio primaries most of the polls gave Clinton a 5-7 point lead. She won by almost 10 points in each state. So we know that not only are the polls consistently wrong - as Clinton outperformed polls in lots of states including NH - but that when push came to shove, Obama couldn’t pick up a majority of Democrats in critical states. We of all people know that Obama never sealed the deal with all of the Democrats and you can bet the Republicans aren’t voting for Obama. So unless acorn can stuff the ballot box, he just doesn’t have it.

BTW I think there’s a very simple explanation for the polling. Obama supporters run their mouths more than other people. So if you’re a poller calling people up and asking them if they want to participate, 90% of diehard Obama supporters will say yes, vs maybe 75% of everyone else. It’s the exact same thing that happened with the Kerry exit polls - they were off in the ten battleground states by amounts ranging from +1.6 to +9.5!!! And in 92 the exit polls were off by 2.5% but Clinton won anyway so nobody cared.

I think a lot of right-leaning independents and Republicans just don’t trust the pollers and/or media and keep their mouths shut.

If VOTERS DON’T LIVE UP TO OUR FALSE POLLS THERE WILL BE RIOTING!

Polls in EVERY election are slanted towards the “Liberal Democrat”.

A look back to JFK at EVERY Poll taken during the race and you find that they always have the Democrat ahead by 6–10–14– and as much as 26pts.

Not one time has the “error” favored the Republican!!!

Think about that.

NOT ONE TIME DID THE ERROR FAVOR THE REPUBLICAN!

“Thats A Fact Jack”! Doubt me?? Check it out for yourself.

The Question (as always) is:

WHY???

Because the press is liberal and they poll for the results they want.

“The Polls Always Tighten”!!!

Again===WHY???

Because the Media KNOWS that this happens so they close the gap in their Polls as time runs out.

They blame it on the voters who “are late to make up their minds”!

They blame it on the “October Surprise”.

They blame it on voters to busy to pay attention untill the last minute.

This year they have a NEW reason!

Blame it on “Racism”!

Let the rioting begin.

But don’t blame the Media, They are just the messenger. RIIGGGHHT!

I was listening to Ed Schultz yesterday and they were discussing with David Axelrod how the young voters are not turning out for the early voting and they do not have ID’s and how these kids are basically not doing there “Obama” job. They were also discussing Obama’s recent trip to Pittsburgh on Sunday and saying they were hoping these people are not just sight seeing and are actual voters. I mean … why would they bring this up if they were not concerned? I still say PA, OH, and FL are in play!

Nobama 08′

Most Obamunists are simply dating the creep because they think it makes them look cool. I don’t think many of them will want to actually marry that festering bag of rat crap. Hang on to your wedding gifts.

Anyone ever stop to thing that maybe the reason the polls are tightening in this last week is because they were never accurate to begin with and the media needs to start preparing for both possibilities on Nov 4? One being a McCain win and the 2nd (God-forbid) be a Hitler2 win?

There are two things they know for sure that they don’t know - how many Hillary democrats are voting McCain and what is going to happen with the women vote with Palin on the ticket. One would think this combination alone would swing the win to McCain.

The polls are cooked.

McCain Wins this Election by about 5 points, and a couple million popular votes.

Believe it.

John McCain
44th President of the United States

Not surprisingly, not one local TV newscast (California) mentioned the tightening Gallup poll today, but they all mentioned polls that have BO with double digit leads.

Anyone ever stop to thing that maybe the reason the polls are tightening in this last week is because they were never accurate to begin with and the media needs to start preparing for both possibilities on Nov 4? One being a McCain win and the 2nd (God-forbid) be a Hitler2 win?

There are two things they know for sure that they don’t know - how many Hillary democrats are voting McCain and what is going to happen with the women vote with Palin on the ticket. One would think this combination alone would swing the win to McCain.

Another reason is now they have to think about their credibilty and accuracy in actually predicting the winner.

PUMA votes are an unknown. How many and where are they concentrated? Spread out over 50 states or heavy in the battlegrounds? Another factot mentioned one pundit… is there a “reverse Palin effect?” (people who will vote for Palin but won’t say so publicly)

I’ve posted this before, but here goes.

With regards to polling, this year’s GE is fluid.

Republican turnout in 2006 was lower than expected due to dissatisfaction with how the Republicans were governing. Alot of R’s voted for the blue dog Democrats for a number of reasons. The polling firms are using this data as part of the methodology for determining the party weightings for the polls. This year, I expect that the R base will turn out in great numbers for two reasons:, Obama, who they fear, and Palin, who they love.

The Bradley effect. I expect it’s about 2%-3%.

The Palin effect. This might be classified as a “reverse Bradley.” People say they hate Palin, but actually support her. See my next reason for why.

“Get in people’s faces.” Obama challenged his supporters to do this. As a result, people will say that they haven’t made up their minds, or will say Obama to avoid a confrontation. Basically, people are lying to the pollsters.

People don’t have the time to take the polls, or don’t want to. The ones who do are politically motivated, and tend to be more liberal.

Joe the plumber. People are pissed about what happened to the guy. They know what’s in store for them.

The fawning of the media. This will also cause a backlash.

The PUMA’s. Even women who didn’t support Hillary don’t like the way that Palin has been treated. They can see things clearly.

The grey panthers. Older people vote more often than younger ones.

How were the questions in the poll worded? I can make a poll give me any result that I want. The polling during the democratic primaries consistently over-sampled Obama supporters.

ACORN and Voter fraud.

There are other reasons, but this is a good list to start. Does this mean that McCain is leading or the election of Obama is a given? Nope. Just that the polls have never been as accurate as they claim.

Do you guys have any news regarding the tape of Sen.Obama’s grandmother (from Philip Berg)?