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Going Forward With No Quarter

By Larry Johnson on November 5, 2008 at 6:00 AM in Current Affairs

If you are worried that we will not have anything to write about at No Quarter, fear not. We are not going anywhere. The focus now is on which Barack Obama will govern. This much is certain–a significant portion of his supporters will be disappointed if not angry with his policies and appointments. I am betting that the progressive wing will get screwed again. However, if the progressives get what they want we should not be surprised with a significant backlash by the center-right majority in this country.

Our focus for the near term will be keeping track of how well Barack does in making good on his promises. He does not want more of the partisan politics. Right? Great, so he will let the Washington Times, Dallas Morning News, and New York Post have prime seats in the White House briefing room?

How many Republicans, like Chuck Hagel, will get a plum job in the new Administration? I can hear some Democrats making a case to punish the Republicans and not give them a thing. I think Barack will follow the lead of George W. Bush and give a Republican a token post that is not really relevant to the national policy debate. Remember how Norm Mineta, Democrat, made out as Secretary of Transportation?

This piece is just to get the dialogue started, it is not a comprehensive list nor is it a fully thought out analysis. But here are some of the dynamics I see at play:

1. What happens in the next two years will be the full fault of the Democrats. With solid Democratic majorities there must be action. So, will the Democrats vote to increase taxes? Odds are yes. And that is a prescription for financial disaster. Raising taxes, even on the so-called rich (what ever that number is), will exacerbate the economic decline, not reverse it.

2. The negotiation of the Status of Forces Agreement in Iraq will probably go on hold until Obama takes the oath. Status of Forces Agreement aka SOFA, governs what bases the US will have, if any, in Iraq and will establish the rules for how U.S. soldiers will be treated if they are believed to have committed a criminal act. In other words, if a U.S. soldier kills an Iraqi will he or she be tried by Iraqi authorities or U.S. military authorities. This will be a test for the Democrats. Are they going to “sell out” our soldiers to a foreign power? I suspect that is how the issue will be framed.

3. The economic crisis is international and will limit what the U.S. can do to revive its own national economy. We will find out if Austan Goolsbee’s behind the scenes talk with the Canadians, where he said that Barack was not really interested in doing away with Nafta, will hold true. Of course Barack’s supporters among the labor unions won’t be happy if that is the case, but at least he will be taking a moderate position that will not aggravate a global recession.

Okay. This is enough to get the conversation started. What else should we be thinking about?