Presidential Transition on the Precipice [UPDATED]

Does Barack Obama’s political future hinge on Hillary Clinton? Has he painted himself into a corner? The leak of Hillary Clinton’s name as the leading candidate to become Secretary of State has thrown Washington into an uproar. In fact, Barack must now follow thru and name Hillary as Secretary of State or risk blowing up his transition. Why? Both John Kerry and Bill Richardson believe they were promised the Sec State job. I was on Capitol Hill for lunch the other day with a friend on the Senate Foreign Relations committee. At that time it was widely assumed among key committee staff that Kerry had the job nailed down and that Russ Feingold would wind up as the new chairman of Foreign Relations. Hold your horses.

Hillary’s name did not just “happen” to leak out. It was a deliberate act and sends a clear message to others who thought they had the Sec State job in the bag. This news has come as a complete surprise to many in the Hillary camp. Unless Hillary comes forward in the next few hours and knocks down these rumors and insists that she wants to stay in the Senate, you must assume she wants the job. The move makes sense on several levels. Hillary and Bill could have sabotaged his Presidential campaign but did not. While some of us who backed Hillary in the primaries declined to board the Hopium Changey Express, she worked hard to get Barack elected. This also will put her in a position particularly suited to her talent and abilities.

But if she is not given the job, oh, oh!!

Trotting her name out like this and then not giving her the job will be viewed as one more insult of a woman who has been the consummate team player. Rather than sit and sulk at the betrayals inflicted on her by the likes of Howard Dean and Bill Richardson, she sucked it up and campaigned enthusiastically for Barack. In fact, some of her supporters were put off by the support for Obama and credit her efforts with helping him seal the deal on election day, particularly in Pennsylvania and Ohio. So to dangle this new opportunity and then give it to a Kerry or a Richardson would be another slap in the face. That in turn would further enrage Hillary fans and supporters.

Putting Hillary’s name out there and then not following through will create a story-line that the Obama transition effort is inept and amateurish.

Conversely, giving Hillary that job would be seen by most Hillary supporters as a great peace offering and the kind of gesture that many believe should have been extended when she suspended her campaign. It would go a long way in healing the rift among many of the Hillary backers who voted for McCain. This will not remove all of the bitterness, but it is an important first step. Of course, this won’t make Kerry and Richardson happy, but neither of those guys can claim any credit for helping turn Pennsylvania and Ohio into a Barack victory.

The economic crisis Barack Obama inherits is so severe and so pervasive that he will need a steady, experienced hand at State Department. With Hillary in place he will be certain that the Senator from New York and her husband, Bill Clinton, will be in the boat with Obama rowing for their lives to try to rescue the Republic. Putting Hillary in place also will send a reassuring message to Israel that a guy named Barack Hussein Obama can be trusted to deal fairly with Israel.

Unless Hillary turns this down, she should be the one. If, by chance, the Obama folks floated her name and then go in a different direction, that will ignite a new and furious round of criticism raising the question about President-elect Obama’s competence. I cannot imagine that Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel and Chief of the Transition team, John Podesta, are that stupid or vindictive. It looks like Hillary will be Secretary of State come February.

UPDATE–This is not a rumor started or fanned by Clintonistas. Important to note that Hillary is not a weak sister like Colin Powell. Powell had his cojones clipped in a Bush Administration because he was too weak to go to the President and push back against the bullying of Don Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney. Powell was and is the quintessential butt snorkeler aka brown nosing ass kisser. A competent, smooth guy but he perfected the role of catering to those above him. Cheney and Rummy conspired together and effectively walled off Powell.

No way in hell the same thing happens to Hillary. There is no comparable Rumsfeld/Cheney lash up in the Obama Administration that I can see. Also, Hillary is not a weak personality like Powell. She does not have an inner need to cater to the every whim of a President Obama. She will give honest, smart advice. If she is confronted with a situation where she is asked to do something or represent a position that is diametrically opposed to her core values she will not just go along.

I think Hillary has the potential to be the best Secretary of State since James Baker and will leave a positive mark on history if she is offered the job.