Terror in Mumbai [3rd UPDATE]

India remains, after Iraq, one of the biggest targets of terrorist activity and the reason is simple–Pakistan. There have been at least seven and as many as ten coordinated attacks today in Mumbai and it appears, based on preliminary reports, that some westerners are being held hostage. The BBC reports:

Gunmen have opened fire at a number of sites in the Indian city of Mumbai (Bombay), killing dozens of people and injuring many more, local reports say.
Police said shooting was continuing and that the incidents appeared to be terrorist attacks. Reports say gunmen have taken hostages at a luxury hotel.
Unconfirmed reports said 80 people had been killed, and more than 250 injured.
There has been a wave of bombings in Indian cities in recent months which has left scores of people dead.
Most of the attacks have been blamed on Muslim militants, although police have also arrested suspected Hindu extremists.

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LARRY CONTINUES: Here is what you need to keep in mind.

First, initial reports are usually wrong. There have been simultaneous attacks in Mumbai. That is true. Number dead and wounded? It is all over the place. What is clear is that this is more than an isolated event nor is it a jealous lover or postal worker gone beserk.

Second, the attackers are using guns and grenades. That means there is a physical limit to the violence they can do unless resupplied. An average person can carry about 100 pounds of gear and still function. Remember, once you start shooting you are using up your supply. It also appears that there are a limited number of attackers at each site. Two people cannot easily hold forty people hostage. As time goes on you get sleepy and you have to answer nature’s call. Not even terrorists are immune to a full bladder.

Third, the likely culprits for this attack are the Harakat Ul Mujahidin or the Lashkar Tayyiba. Both groups have received extensive financial support and training from Pakistan’s intelligence service, the ISI. Why? Pakistan saw these terrorist groups as one way to deal with the threat of a nuclear India.

Fourth, we have had some remarkable positive developments in the last week as far as easing tensions between India and Pakistan. Pakistan is taking steps to push ISI out of the government:

President Asif Ali Zardari, and Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani signaled their intention to exert more control over the ISI in July but backtracked from an attempt to bring it under the ambit of the Interior Ministry.

Senior officials say that the army chief, General Ashfaq Kayani, who himself served as ISI head, has been supportive of Pakistan’s return to civilian-led democracy while insisting that the army look after its own affairs.

Since becoming army chief in November last year, Kayani has moved to take the army out of politics, including ordering all officers out of civilian posts and barring them from meeting politicians. He appointed a new ISI chief in September and replaced several senior officers.

The ISI is not likely to take this lying down and this attack may be linked to the recent moves by President Ali Zadari:

The ISI is known to have wielded great influence on foreign and security policies, especially toward India and Afghanistan.

It played a role in distributing arms and money, covertly supplied by the United States and Saudi Arabia, to Islamist guerrilla groups fighting against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s.

Critics say the ISI was also instrumental in creating the Taliban movement in Afghanistan in the 1990s.

Pakistan officially stopped backing the Taliban after becoming a U.S. ally in 2001, and the ISI has helped the United States eliminate hundreds of Al Qaeda fighters since then.

But the agency, or at least agents within it, are often accused of playing a double game and treating the Afghan Taliban and some militant groups as assets rather than enemies.

Some members of Pakistan’s security apparatus regard these militants groups as tools to gain leverage in Afghanistan and the Indian-controlled portion of Kashmir in the long term, according to analysts.

The move against the ISI coincides with President Ali Zardari’s announcement renouncing a first strike policy against his country’s longstanding enemy:

PAKISTAN’S President Asif Ali Zardari has sparked controversy by announcing a “no first strike” nuclear war policy before an audience in New Delhi, reversing his country’s historical position on the issue.

As doubts were expressed that the policy articulated by Mr Zardari – to the delight of his Indian audience – had the support of his country’s powerful military, which controls its nuclear warheads, some commentators said they believed the President was “not fully informed or completely aware of” Pakistan’s policy on the issue.

The controversy erupted as Pakistan’s top spy agency, the ISI, disbanded its “dirty tricks” political wing, which was used by successive military dictators to maintain themselves in power.

Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi said the closure of the political wing was a positive development for democracy.

Addressing a conference in New Delhi by video, Mr Zardari, in answer to a question, contradicted Pakistan’s long-standing policy on nuclear weapons.

“We will most certainly not use it first,” he said.

I think we are looking at a desperate gamble by radicals inside Pakistan who want to disrupt/derail any rapprochement between India and Pakistan.

Final bonus question: Which is the largest muslim nation? Pakistan or India? Answer. India. India is home to almost five times as many muslims as Pakistan.

UPDATE: At least seven targets have been reported by the media:

1. Mumbai CST Railway station
2. Oberoi Hotel
3. Taj Hotel located near Gate of India
4. Trident hotel
5. Café Leopold restaurant in Colaba
6. A taxi on Dockyard Road in Mazgaon (some reporting as Vile Parle Expressway)
7. Cama Hospital

Al Qaeda’s signature in conducting nearly simultaneous attacks against geographically dispersed targets was acquired in part from the assistance/training of Pakistani ISI officers (note, only a portion of ISI was favorably disposed to assist radical Islamic extremists). Today’s attacks in Mumbai appear to have a common ancestor.

The training for this attack probably occurred in Pakistan. That piece of the puzzle will be unraveled in the weeks to come. It is important at this juncture that the United States and Britain work closely behind the scenes to promote contact and cooperation between authorities in Islamabad and New Delhi.

India has fairly competent counterterrorism forces/SWAT teams. However, in light of at least four reported hostage situations around the city we cannot rule out the possibility that assistance from British and US forces will be requested.

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UPDATE 3–
Here is a list of the terrorist bomb attacks in India this year:

30 October: Explosions kill at least 64 in north-eastern Assam
30 September: Blasts in western India kill at least seven
27 September: Bomb blasts kills one in Delhi
13 September: Five bomb blasts kill 18 in Delhi
26 July: At least 22 small bombs kill 49 in Ahmedabad
25 July: Seven bombs go off in Bangalore killing two people
13 May: Seven bomb hit markets and crowded streets in Jaipur killing 63

I am not trying to suggest that terrorism is unimportant. It is a serious threat. But we do need to put it in its proper perspective. This is not the end of the world. India is a country of more than 1 billion people. Right now the death toll from these attacks is hovering around 80. A terrible thing if it is a member of your family or a friend. But life goes on in India.

It is true hubris on the part of the people who carried out these attacks. The fact that they believe that this stupid, senseless act of brutality and cowardice will somehow change the policies of governments show how out of touch with reality these jihadists are. Today’s attacks are the equivalent of dipping one’s hand in a lake, quickly withdrawing it, and searching the rippling surface desperately for the imprint of your hand.

Here is a map of the city and the location of the attacks so far:

What next? India will react and what is left of the network behind this attack will be hit. This is not the kind of situation that will win the jihadists more international support. To the contrary, this will erode whatever support they have. Without protection or safehaven their ability to cause mayhem is degraded.

Let’s also be clear that they had to have the support of some other country (or at least some well placed folks in another country) to prepare and train for these attacks. India deserves significant credit for managing such a complex event in a very efficient manner given the circumstances. Can you imagine what would be happening in New York City or Los Angeles if we have ten simultaneous attacks of this scale? Our folks would rise to the occasion but it would certainly put some stress on the system.