Mumbai Update and Observations
By Larry Johnson on November 28, 2008 at 11:58 AM in Current Affairs
While relations between India and Pakistan are understandably strained in the wake of this week’s terrorist attacks in Mumbai, Pakistan is making the right moves to reassure India that it is serious about dismantling the terrorist infrastructure that exists in Pakistan. Pakistan’s Prime Minister is in India and expressing support for India and condemning the attacks. Pakistani President Zardari also has directed the head of Pakistan’s intelligence service to go to Mumbai and assist with the investigation. This follows on the heels of his directive last week to dismantle the political wing of ISI.
I suspect many of you may not know what the hell I am talking about. So here is a Reader’s Digest summary/condensed version:
A portion of Pakistan’s ISI (i.e., it’s version of the CIA and FBI combined) has provided direct support, financing and training to radical Islamists. After the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, for example, the ISI helped organize, arm and train mujahedin fighting the Soviets. Some in Pakistan’s intelligence and military services see the support to the Islamic groups as a tool to help them confront neighbors they view as a threat–India and Iran in particular. The status of the Kashmir region (nothwest India, northeast Pakistan) is a major focus for the terrorist activities of the Islamic extremists. Besides worrying about the Kashmir, the ISI, for example, also helped the Taliban get up and running.
The ISI, or at least elements in the ISI, worked directly with Bin Laden and his band:
In 2003, the US government declassified 32 documents relating to the Taliban and al-Qaeda. These included secret memos from the State Department and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). One of the DIA documents noted, “[Osama] bin Laden’s al-Qaeda network was able to expand under the safe sanctuary extended by Taliban following Pakistan directives. If there is any doubt on that issue, consider the location of bin Laden’s camp targeted by US cruise missiles, Zahawa. Positioned on the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, it was built by Pakistani contractors, funded by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence [ISI] directorate … If this was later to become bin Laden’s base, then serious questions are raised by the early relationship between bin Laden and Pakistan’s ISI.”
In 1998, US warships in the Arabian Sea launched cruise missiles on “al-Qaeda” training camps in Afghanistan. However, at least one of the targeted camps was a HuM facility, run in conjunction with Pakistani military and intelligence officials. According to the US 9-11 Commission, many HuM volunteers and a few Pakistani intelligence personnel were killed during the missile attack. Soon after the strike, Khalil called a press conference in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad and threatened the US that his men would attack Americans in their homes, just like the Americans attacked them (HuM) in their own backyard. HuM continued to operate training camps in eastern Afghanistan until US air strikes destroyed them during the fall of 2001. In 2003, HuM began using the name Jamiat ul-Ansar.
There is essentially a civil war in Pakistan. The Pakistani Government for the most part condemns and rejects terrorism and the Islamic extremists responsible for this activity. Yet, elements within the government, provide direct support to such groups and view them as an element of Pakistani national security policy.
The people who carried out the multiple attacks this week in Mumbai almost certainly were trained in camps inside Pakistan controlled by Islamic extremists (Harakat ul Mujahedin or Lashkar e Tayiba) and supported, at least tacitly, by elements of the ISI and/or Pakistani Army.
Here is what we I conclude based on the events so far:
1. The preparation for this attack was very sophisticated. There was significant prior planning to gather intelligence about the hotels, restaurants, train station, and the Jewish apartment building. This was not spur of the moment. The information on the various sites was gathered in advance and assembled into a coordinated plan.
2. The young men who carried out these coordinated strikes had training and communication support that enabled them to launch these attacks. The training most likely required at least one week and would have incorporated the intelligence about the target sites.
3. The training in marksmanship and explosives was rudimentary. The attackers learned the point and spray method of shooting, which is imprecise and not terribly effective. When we get a final count of the number of attackers and consider what they were capable of carrying in terms of ammunition and grenades, they certainly did not kill anywhere near the number of people they could have if they were highly trained in Close Quarter Battle (CQB). Please do not misunderstand me. What the terrorists have done is terrible and has inflicted unbearable suffering on thousands of families. But this could have been far worse.
4. The Government of India and their police SWAT teams (NSG) are doing a good job of managing an almost impossible situation. Military officers, not police, are more qualified to deal with a situation involving combat at multiple sites. Nonetheless, the police appear to have adapted pretty well. Despite the audacity of the terrorists, the result is going to be as expected–the attackers will be dead or jailed and police and military forces around the world will study the incident and upgrade their capabilities. It is worth noting that the United States has provided India some significant counter terrorism support to the police over the last five years. That training is paying off this week.
5. The media hysteria pronouncing these attacks as the end of the world is just silly. The Indian police are moving methodically to clear the buildings involved in the original attack. They are clearly trying to minimize other civilian casualties. These attacks have disrupted life in Mumbai for this week. But these events also are likely to spark increased vigilance and security operations that will make it more difficult for groups like these to carry out future operations.
The longterm solution to this violence requires dismantling the terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and helping India and Pakistan find a peaceful resolution to the Kashmir dispute. India, I believe, will recover fine from these attacks. Pakistan? A much more difficult and dangerous problem. The United States and the rest of the world may have little ability to influence what happens inside Pakistan to tamp down the influence of Islamic extremists. We must try and this will be a significant challenge for Barack Obama’s foreign policy team. The Bush team leaves office having left things in Pakistan worse off than when they took office.
(Release: November 13)
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Larry–This is sooooo good. I’ve sent this to my “list,” and they too are extremely appreciative. Thank you.
Thanks for an excellent review of the situation, Larry. It’s so refreshing to read one that is knowledgeable, informative and calm.
Hi Larry, Susan, Uppity, Bud et al –
Hope you all had a good Thanksgiving. I came across a book review this morning that may be of interest to many here. In light of this article by Larry. What is important are the names we are so familiar with at this point — but also the convergence of three separate ideologies at once.
I wish I knew more than I do, about this particular intersection, I know you guys do, and personally, I like Democracy as we have known it in our lifetimes — Best. Funny, the puzzle pieces fit in non-funny ways this morning…especially about “the Left.”
http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/11/shadow_world_resurgent_russia.html
A strong woman president would have been such a strong counter message to all those Islamic countries funding terrorism and fostering anti-Western cultural notions. What a wasted opportunity! America caved into those same bad elements on the international scene by electing Obama.
Terrorists are not going to appreciate our broad mindedness in electing a Black man with a Muslim name and heritage. We needed to elect someone to counter their message and lifestyle and to show we reject their version of Islamic interpretation at all levels (by electing a strong woman leader).
Here or in Bloomberg, Market Watch…can’t remember…read that with selecting Barack Hussein Obama as president of the US, the power elites of the shadow government are seeking to “appeal to the moderates in the Muslim world”…sort of to turn toward our way and against radicalism. Sounds very plausible.
Actually I see his Muslim heritage as more of a hindrance to solve this Islamic terrorists problem.
One terrorist who was captured alive by the Indian security forces has already confessed to being a part of Lashkar-e-Toiba. The Lashkar has been tacitly supported by the Pakistani govt. cos they were only involved in Kashmir to bleed India. Now that they have targetted americans, brits and israelis, the pakistanis may be forced to act against the lashkar.
Lashkar is a sister-network of the Al-Qaida. They are well financed and well trained. Now they have bunched different forces as enemies. As Osama Bin Laden put it, all westerners, israelis and indians are enemies.
British-born Pakistanis were among the Mumbai terrorists, Indian government sources claimed today, as the death toll rose to at least 150.
As many as seven of the terrorists may have British connections and some could be from Leeds and Bradford where London’s July 7 bombers lived, one source said.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1089711/Massacre-Mumbai-Up-SEVEN-gunmen-British-came-area-7-7-bombers.html
Perhaps the terrorists had dual allegiances.
Yeah, just like a certain person sitting in the “office of President select”.
I still laugh my ass off at Office of the President-Elect. That One is one of the most self-absorbed excuses for a human being I’ve ever had the misfortune to have run across. Is that office a water closet by chance?
Larry, Kashmir dispute won’t be resolved unless Pakistan gives up its te**orist support. I think it can easily call off those dogs if it wants to. I wonder how much of US aid to Pakistan ends up in the hands of Lashkar and others..It does not look like Obama is sympathetic/supportive toward India, more like he has his ears to the Pakistanis which will roil the Indians. Come on, Indians are the good guys, they have tried to make something of themselves with a growing economy and a secular state. My fear is that the bad guys from outside have infiltrated into the south and all over and now are inciting Hindu and Muslim envy and hatred inside India. If they can make it a conflagration from within, what more could they want? I hope majority Hindus won’t fall into this trap and continue to be the secular nation that they are. But their patience has been tested time and again in the recent past and this week.
well said
Politicians everywhere make things worse. If they contribute anything toward this Hindu-Muslim divide, they are playing with fire. I hope they understand that fully. But most look at it with a short term focus of getting out the votes and them winning at any cost without giving much thought to long term consequences (didn’t we see that here in the US recently?).
BTW, thank you for your bits of news from there. Stay safe.
A good deal of that “Hindu and Muslim envy” is the direct result of the growth of a HINDU nationalist party (the BJP) in the 1980s and 1990s (supporters of the BJP and another Hindu nationalist party, the VHP, attacked the Babri mosque in 1992. The BJP’s leader, Atal Vajpayee, became PM of India two times with limited success and a third time with a genuine mandate.
The BJP and its National Democratic Alliance partners lost power in 2004, largely due to Hindu nationalists abandoning Vajpayee, claiming that he’d turned against the principles of Hindutva (mostly for his “appeasement” of Muslims).
Indians are NOT the “good guys”. Pakistanis are NOT the “bad guys”. Both countries were US allies through the Cold War while also accepting aid from opposite sides of the Sino-Soviet schism (Pakistan from China, India from Russia–and Pakistan’s acceptance of aid from China came only after the Indians accepted Soviet aid; India and China had a rivalry over Himalayan territories, in addition to India’s offering the Dalai Lama a home in exile, and India was eager to accept the Soviet offer of help since it would mean China would be “surrounded” by enemies–Pakistan then saw itself potentially surrounded by its own enemies as Russia still hoped to expand its control to the Arabian Sea). India was first in the nuclear arms race on the sub-continent and all its nuke testing took place in the western deserts near the border with Pakistan. India also sent ITS troops into East Pakistan when that province declared independence, not to help Pakistan maintain its control over the rebel province but to ensure the independence of the newly-established Bangladesh.
As to India’s “secular nation” status, again, look at the country’s history in the past 20 years as Hindu nationalists have attempted to press Hindu supremacy. Not only have they targeted Muslims, but also Buddhists and Christians throughout India.
I grew up in India for the first 23 years of my life and am well aware of its geopolitical history. First of all, my calling India good guys is valid to the extent that they are trying to make something of themselves and not supporting terrorists trying to blow up places elsewhere whereas Pakistan is forever in competition with India and fixated on Kashmir, not to mention its ISI financing the insurgents then and terrorists now. This Hindu nationalism is a reactionary development to the lengths Indian Govt has gone to accommodate the minority Muslims — they even have their own law. I grew up in relatively peaceful times but the current younger generations resent all the concessions made to Muslims and their question is for what? Yet, I don’t agree with all the Hindu fundamentalists nonsense — that is a dangerous road to take. India is a secular nation and they have to preserve it as such if they want to avoid a conflagration.
I agree, the Pakisthani ISI who butchered the hindus in Kashmir by invoking the islamic nation are real good guys . Then that is only once province.
The operations in India are over, and the terrorists have been killed. The Israeli rabbi and his wife were killed by the terrorists. This is gonna have repercussions across the world.
OMG.
But anyone who thought they were still alive was more hopeful than thoughtful. Thanks for the report. Please be careful.
There is a ray of hope, the nanny saved their toddler son and he is safe. We must be thankful for this and thankful for the love of the nanny who looks as if she is still holding on to him.
yes, you’re absolutely right. But the son is now an orphan. That is sad.
i do believe the leader of the nation of islam is now out favor as flavor of the month. i saw him bedecked in his little outfit to praise obama. i guess obama doesn’t have much wiggle room after this. he has to play hardball.
The head of the Lashkar in Pakistan came in public and stated that India could only understand violence. the Pakistani govt. better do something quickly. otherwise, there will be solid friction between the 2 countries, both nuclear powers.
benny that is exactly what these thugs want. that is the whole purpose. oh yeah and don’t forget the tragedy loving media.
Good post Larry. I hope Obama will read it to bring him up to speed on the subject.
Michelle…..have you been letting the girls play with my maps again ??
Yeah and the kids know how many states there are but their daddy does not…the kids know how dumb he is… They call him stinky.
he stole their song …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IWKhYQarJU (now in the new letter box edition)
Looks like there are two terrorists left at the Taj. looks like no more hostages. The indians are hunting them down. But the death of the rabbi and wife disturbs me. This is not good at all.
The Israelis value every citizen of theirs. The death of the rabbi and his wife is gonna pi** Israel off.
The deaths and targeting of anything Jewish..
…and the U.S. left with a Presidential wanna be who pals around with avowed anti-Semites; whose foreign relations adviser advocated the U.S. should invade Israel to impose a Palestinian state; and who arguably is not even a natural born citizen under Article II of the U.S. Constitution, anyway! Especially in times like this, I spit on the DNC for forcing BO on my beloved country notwithstanding HRC, the clearly more qualified candidate, beat him in the Democratic primary.
I appreciate the update, especially since I seldom watch any TV news and do not get any newspaper. I especially appreciate the background information. As others here have done, I extend my thanks to Larry and all at NQ.
The terror road leads back to saudi arabia. None of this shit stops until we deal with them.
Terror in a New York Wal-Mart.
Obots knock down the door and stomp over the workers killing one and injuring others this ‘Black Friday’ Morning.
NEW YORK – A worker died after being trampled by a throng of unruly shoppers when a suburban Wal-Mart opened for the holiday sales rush Friday, authorities said.
At least three other people were injured.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc., in Bentonville, Ark., would not confirm the reports of a stampede but said a “medical emergency” had caused the company to close the store, which is in Valley Stream on Long Island.
Nassau County police said the 34-year-old worker was taken to a hospital where he was pronounced dead at about 6 a.m., an hour after the store opened. The cause of death was not immediately known.
A police statement said shortly after 5 a.m., a throng of shoppers “physically broke down the doors, knocking (the worker) to the ground.” Police also said a 28-year-old pregnant woman was taken to a hospital for observation and three other shoppers suffered minor injuries and were also taken to hospitals.
The dead worker’s name was not released
Thank you, Larry, for an excellent summation of events so far.
Oh, this is hilarious. The terrorists are mostly in their early 20’s. young and impressionable.
According to Indian intelligence sources, the person in-charge of brain-washing them into these activities (from the Lashkar-e-Toiba) promised them 72 virgins in heaven after dying for Allah. What is it with these psychos and virgins? lol
They’re BOBO’s demographic
lol rofl
They sure are. LMAO
Yea, some people call those virgins, Hope and Change.
With any luck there will be 72 Virgils or maybe Virginians waiting for them (paraphrasing Robin Williams).
lol.
sorry….psychos may be more sane than these guys. Sex with 72 virgins in their so-called heaven? Man, there is no word to describe these guys beliefs. Sorry to all psychos.
This kind of belief is unbelievable. I think that the rabid evangelical belief is a walk in the park compared to what these guys believe in. I respect all evangelicals.
Well, some unnamed campaign in this election turned masses of impressionable young (and old) people into unquestioning brainwashed cult-like creepy beings — these are wealthy, literate people who could be otherwise rational and logical. So why is it a surprise that those poverty-stricken, illiterate, young people could be brainwashed with info they understand?
that’s what a lot of so-called “progressives” don’t understand – “moderate” islam is worse than fundamentalist christianity.
Larry, you noticed it too eh? The MSM seems to be drooling over another possible conflict. I swear it’s like watching a movie for them or playing a videogame…do they even care that what they write can directly effect what happens? Maybe all reporters and their bosses should be forced to cover stories like this first hand, blood flowing, bullets flying. Maybe then they would understand that by trying to jazz the stories up from an office in New York or LA may sell more papers or grab more viewers but it can also make things worse for the folks trying to figure things out. Oh yeah, and don’t buy anything today, boycott BLACK FRIDAY…some poor Walmart worker was trampled to death this morning when the crowd rushed in to get their cheaply made imported crap.
That’s horrible. A lot of Americans have become a stampeding herd whenever they’re spooked (terrorists might get them, they might miss out on a sale, gays might get the right to civil unions, those Godless communists are putting fluoride in our drinking water). When does this insanity end?
The sad part is places like Walmart encourage the herd mentality by doing crap like advertising BLACK FRIDAY. NPR reported that one store (perhaps not Walmart) was selling ONE Nintendo WII system for $9.00 every hour. It’s like both the business world and the news world (is there a difference anymore?) has tapped into some primative part of the brain that makes people go into some sort of primal state. Like a form of group bloodlust just to sell products and papers. People actually stepped over the dying man and kept on going. And a pregnant woman will most likely lose her baby. Hmmmmm kind of like these Jihadists being whipped up into a killing frenzy. The simularites are striking. 72 virgins and the latest version of Wii. How sad.
it’s the culmination of thirty years of evangelic conservative thinking: Every man for himself. Looking around it isn’t hard to understand how that thinking might have actually lead America to becoming the sinking ship. And just like some of the more famous ship wreaks in history, it’s those with the money that are getting seat in the
bailoutlifeboat.To be fair to stampeding herds around the world….it isn’t just Americans.
Crowds are dangerous.
And, I agree, it’s a trait that can be exploited for lots of reasons.
You’re more than likely spot on–my experience has only been with American cattle.
LOL
just how many people actually watch the tv pundits has beens? not many!
I just heard on Fox that 2 people were killed in a Ca toys r us stampede. it is disgusting
[...] And Larry Johnson’s views in No Quarter… [...]
No Quarter
It is apparent that terrorism serves multiple purposes not the least of which is the endowment of status re: classification of what is considered ’successful’ jihad. Making a government’s agencies look bad is another purpose e.g. India’s intelligence failure re: detection and prevention of the Mumbai plot and now LeT’s publicized subsequent denial as gameplay. Further breakdown of India and Pakistan relations is another possible consequence. It is apparent that the Mumbai terrorists are progressing on full cylinder toward a completely successful operation.
IMO, the governments of India and Pakistan could change this resounding terrorist success with words alone i.e. the semantics that they use to describe the perpetrators and the act. Perhaps it would be wise and truthful to rob these terrorists of the status “Islamic extremists” or “jihadists” and simply refer to them as criminals. Perhaps it would be wise and truthful to declare terrorist acts as crimes and not acts that imminently lead to the favor of the “global war against terrorism”.
The following hypothesis is worth testing. If terrorist acts are treated as acts of war then does all peacebuilding between India and Pakistan cease while war prevails? Is this how it works? On the other hand, does peacebuilding between India and Pakistan continue if terrorist acts are classified crimes as downplay?
Good point but that kind of separation is possible only if there is no support from Pakistani government for the bad guys like Lashkar and others. As long as money from their Government flows into these groups, it will be hard to categorize them as isolated acts of just some criminals and move on to bigger goals. Right now the ball is on the Pakistani govt. side, like Larry says that they will have to clean up their act and divorce themselves operationally and financially from the monster they once created.
Thank you for answering my question. Due to the influence of globalization, I think the ball is every nation’s court, including the US, which is why I find Army Field Manual 3-07 Stability Operations so very interesting i.e. you may want to read the Foreword by LTG Caldwell.
Thank you for your straight-talk analysis, Larry. These international issues are difficult to understand when we don’t know the players, the issues, or the likely ramifications.
There are two reasons for our ignorance.
1. The American Media closed most of their foreign offices, because…
2. Most Americans don’t give a damn about international news.
Larry, I agree with you that with the weaponry apparently available and I am now hearing up to 40 attackers, deaths in the thousands not low hundreds would have seemed possible. However having just seen on CNN scenes from inside the RR station and the devastation two, now well photographed for all the world to see, youth were able to inflict, I would think this event would send shivers through anyone involved in protecting any location in which any group of people come together.
To all of you who posted your sarcastic comments to Larry’s article, and symbolically patted each other on the back for your cleverness, rolling on the floor laughing:
I watched the news reports of the massacre in Mumbai while standing in line at the bank today, and burst into tears.
Different strokes for different folks. (Or maybe I fail to see the humor, because I am Jewish.)
I did too off and on while reading different articles. A 30 year old commando/NSG Major, the only son from my hometown of Bangalore was hard. Looking at some of those gruesome pictures at http://www.boston.com was also difficult. How can we not go after those bastards? 7 of them were born and raised in UK. What the hell is going on there? What the hell is going on in Pakistan? The world community including all those Islamic countries have to come together and devise an original solution to this and get rid of this.
British Security and the Indian PM have said that there is no evidence that any of them were born and raised in the UK. While there is a significant Pakistan community in the UK, (as there is also in the US) the facts are not known at this time so please do not jump to that conclusion and wait for the evidence.
LJ:
Thank you so much for this post. I wonder about Zardari (President of Pakistan) to be effective in verifying ISI really gets dismantled… He was (is?) quite corrupt when Benazir Butho (”Mr 10%”) was PM… What’s your take of him in this regard?
Regarding your point 5 and some of the media hysteria, I want to share with you part of an email from a friend at the Tata Institute (Science Research center; researchers live there as well) which is in
between 1 to 3 km from South Mumbai (where the attacks too place)
TIFR is the Tata Institute.
My brother was a physicist for a number of years there. Only today we’re talking about how close it was to everything else that is going on there.
I knew there was a reason for visiting this site. It is to get a rational approach to political situations. Thank you Larry for sharing with us your obvious knowledge about terrorism. Your thoughts are obviously based on experience and I appreciate you willingness to let us benefit from them. I intend sending this article to others to enable them to have a better understanding of the situation.
One of my American friends mentioned this as a war on civilization. Many Indians don’t have an option to have a definite opinion. But plain facts are :
1- A Radical muslim movement “Muslim unity” was supported along the lines of “workers unity” , Distant events in Turkey had impact in India in first part of last century. The Indian National Congress accomodated most of those demands. Good number of Muslims were there in Indian National Congress.
2- In the middle of last century, with british support, muslim brotherhood was taken in form of partition of India. Its leader was not a devout muslim. But this thing degenerated into one of the worst and less spoken violence of last century. Hindus got cleaned from land of Pure ( That is the meaning of Pakisthan), and gradually from Bangladesh.
3- In 1990s hindus again got cleaned up from Kashmir, where they stayed with muslims since the time muslims invaded it hundreds of years ago. Pakisthanis created these terror camps and sent them to India. It is the same Lakshar that had sent the terrorists to Mumbai . In kashmir they performed cruel attacks on the villagers, it killed them like animals.It also conducted daredevil attacks and engaged the security forces.
In the intervening decades, India had fought two major wars with Pakisthan.
4- When the then USA president Mr Clinton visited India, these Lakshars were dressed in Army fatigue and massacred an entire sikh village in the darkness of night. Then they spread the rumor that Indian Army has massacred sikhs also !! Fortunately Mr Clinton saw through it, President Clinton had condemned the terrorists.
5- The muslim brotherhood of Pakisthan didn’t work, it was split into two after dissatisfaction and atrocities in east pakisthan.
Pakisthan see the ummah or muslim brotherhood, and its power brokers managed to rule that country by selling this premise. India essentially says that brotherhood logic is internal to Pakisthan’s ideology.
Yea, people should read up on how Kashmiri Pandits (Hindus) were systematically removed from Kashmir by force (from Pakistani insurgents and guerrilla groups.)