Mumbai Update and Observations

While relations between India and Pakistan are understandably strained in the wake of this week’s terrorist attacks in Mumbai, Pakistan is making the right moves to reassure India that it is serious about dismantling the terrorist infrastructure that exists in Pakistan. Pakistan’s Prime Minister is in India and expressing support for India and condemning the attacks. Pakistani President Zardari also has directed the head of Pakistan’s intelligence service to go to Mumbai and assist with the investigation. This follows on the heels of his directive last week to dismantle the political wing of ISI.

I suspect many of you may not know what the hell I am talking about. So here is a Reader’s Digest summary/condensed version:

A portion of Pakistan’s ISI (i.e., it’s version of the CIA and FBI combined) has provided direct support, financing and training to radical Islamists. After the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, for example, the ISI helped organize, arm and train mujahedin fighting the Soviets. Some in Pakistan’s intelligence and military services see the support to the Islamic groups as a tool to help them confront neighbors they view as a threat–India and Iran in particular. The status of the Kashmir region (nothwest India, northeast Pakistan) is a major focus for the terrorist activities of the Islamic extremists. Besides worrying about the Kashmir, the ISI, for example, also helped the Taliban get up and running.

The ISI, or at least elements in the ISI, worked directly with Bin Laden and his band:

In 2003, the US government declassified 32 documents relating to the Taliban and al-Qaeda. These included secret memos from the State Department and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). One of the DIA documents noted, “[Osama] bin Laden’s al-Qaeda network was able to expand under the safe sanctuary extended by Taliban following Pakistan directives. If there is any doubt on that issue, consider the location of bin Laden’s camp targeted by US cruise missiles, Zahawa. Positioned on the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, it was built by Pakistani contractors, funded by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence [ISI] directorate … If this was later to become bin Laden’s base, then serious questions are raised by the early relationship between bin Laden and Pakistan’s ISI.”

In 1998, US warships in the Arabian Sea launched cruise missiles on “al-Qaeda” training camps in Afghanistan. However, at least one of the targeted camps was a HuM facility, run in conjunction with Pakistani military and intelligence officials. According to the US 9-11 Commission, many HuM volunteers and a few Pakistani intelligence personnel were killed during the missile attack. Soon after the strike, Khalil called a press conference in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad and threatened the US that his men would attack Americans in their homes, just like the Americans attacked them (HuM) in their own backyard. HuM continued to operate training camps in eastern Afghanistan until US air strikes destroyed them during the fall of 2001. In 2003, HuM began using the name Jamiat ul-Ansar.

There is essentially a civil war in Pakistan. The Pakistani Government for the most part condemns and rejects terrorism and the Islamic extremists responsible for this activity. Yet, elements within the government, provide direct support to such groups and view them as an element of Pakistani national security policy.

The people who carried out the multiple attacks this week in Mumbai almost certainly were trained in camps inside Pakistan controlled by Islamic extremists (Harakat ul Mujahedin or Lashkar e Tayiba) and supported, at least tacitly, by elements of the ISI and/or Pakistani Army.

Here is what we I conclude based on the events so far:

1. The preparation for this attack was very sophisticated. There was significant prior planning to gather intelligence about the hotels, restaurants, train station, and the Jewish apartment building. This was not spur of the moment. The information on the various sites was gathered in advance and assembled into a coordinated plan.

2. The young men who carried out these coordinated strikes had training and communication support that enabled them to launch these attacks. The training most likely required at least one week and would have incorporated the intelligence about the target sites.

3. The training in marksmanship and explosives was rudimentary. The attackers learned the point and spray method of shooting, which is imprecise and not terribly effective. When we get a final count of the number of attackers and consider what they were capable of carrying in terms of ammunition and grenades, they certainly did not kill anywhere near the number of people they could have if they were highly trained in Close Quarter Battle (CQB). Please do not misunderstand me. What the terrorists have done is terrible and has inflicted unbearable suffering on thousands of families. But this could have been far worse.

4. The Government of India and their police SWAT teams (NSG) are doing a good job of managing an almost impossible situation. Military officers, not police, are more qualified to deal with a situation involving combat at multiple sites. Nonetheless, the police appear to have adapted pretty well. Despite the audacity of the terrorists, the result is going to be as expected–the attackers will be dead or jailed and police and military forces around the world will study the incident and upgrade their capabilities. It is worth noting that the United States has provided India some significant counter terrorism support to the police over the last five years. That training is paying off this week.

5. The media hysteria pronouncing these attacks as the end of the world is just silly. The Indian police are moving methodically to clear the buildings involved in the original attack. They are clearly trying to minimize other civilian casualties. These attacks have disrupted life in Mumbai for this week. But these events also are likely to spark increased vigilance and security operations that will make it more difficult for groups like these to carry out future operations.

The longterm solution to this violence requires dismantling the terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and helping India and Pakistan find a peaceful resolution to the Kashmir dispute. India, I believe, will recover fine from these attacks. Pakistan? A much more difficult and dangerous problem. The United States and the rest of the world may have little ability to influence what happens inside Pakistan to tamp down the influence of Islamic extremists. We must try and this will be a significant challenge for Barack Obama’s foreign policy team. The Bush team leaves office having left things in Pakistan worse off than when they took office.