An inevitable outcome in Gaza
By Patrick L. Lang on January 19, 2009 at 10:05 PM in Egypt, Gaza, Hamas, Iran, Israel, Palestinians
(bumped up by Susan)
Hamas has offered a one-year, renewable truce on condition that all Israeli forces leave Gaza within a week and that all the border crossings with Israel and Egypt are opened.
A senior Israeli official said on Saturday the Jewish state planned to halt its offensive in Gaza without any agreement with Hamas. A Hamas official has vowed the group would fight on.
Mubarak also said Egypt would call for an international meeting to discuss post-war reconstruction in the Palestinian coastal enclave.
He said his country would not agree to the presence of foreign observers on its soil to monitor the border with Gaza.
“I say that this is a red line and I will not allow it,” he said in the speech.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit said earlier in the day Egypt was not committed to a U.S.-Israeli deal, signed on Friday, to halt arms smuggling into Gaza.” Reuters
———————————
If I remember correctly, this outcome was predicted here.
If it was that evident, then why did Israel begin such an operation?
The Israelis have failed to humble Hamas. Rockets still arrive in Israel. This failure in their self-declared war aim will cost them dearly in the strategic contest. They are going to halt their “offensive without any sort of concession from Hamas?” I suppose that they do not want the burden of this ongoing action to be carried forward into their relations with the Obama Administration. The futility of what they have done in Gaza will be burden enough.
It is claimed by the agitpropers that Hamas is a satellite organization of Iran. If that is so, then Iran has done a poor job of supplying their Palestinian subsidiary. Where are the Iranian product improved and manufactured weapons that Hizbullah possessed in numbers in ‘06? Where are they? Impossible to deliver? All of them?
It would seem that political support and encouragement is one thing. Supply is another.
This summons from Mubarak indicates a need to placate the Cairo mob. No foreign inspectors on Egyptian soil? That means that Egypt will not make a serious attempt to halt smuggling into Gaza.
Not a good outcome for Israel.
Perhaps a truce with Hamas would not be a bad idea. pl
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OT But someone gets it right.
Canada refuses to admit noted terrorist/friend of president
http://hotair.com/archives/2009/01/19/canada-refuses-to-admit-noted-terroristfriend-of-president/
Good for Canada. Unfortunately, Billy will get a pardon from his good friend Obama, if not a ride there on AF One.
Please don’t do that, Harp. It is rude to the author. This is why we have open threads. Thank you.
Why?
What was the real motive?
Some say this was a message from Israel to Obama??
What was accomplished — except more hate and new recruits for Hamas?
Pat Lang
I agree with James Lewis of the “American Thinker” that this was a proxy war against Iran. With Hamas estimated to have 15,000 gunmen in Gaza with another 5,000 Islamic fighters, it was never Israel’s plan to wipe out Hamas. Why? Israel considers Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah as greater enemies. Finally, Lewis predicted that Israel’s offense would stop just before January 20.
“Not a good outcome for Israel.” According to Lewis, Israel’s greatest fear would be the Mullahs with nuclear weapons.
EWard, to be completely fair, Israel is the only nuclear armed country in the area. According to every estimate, they have 250-300 war heads and the capability to deliver them over long distances. They could destroy the entire ME. Iran is 2300 miles round trip and they aren’t able to deliver even if they had war heads. Israel has already unilaterally bombed Syria and lost a war with Hezbollah. They have lost support from much of the international community because of their aggressive behavior and the UN is investigating the bombing of one of it’s schools where civilians had taken shelter as a war crime. Wouldn’t we all benefit if they sat down and negotiated in good faith? They aren’t achieving their goals and they are creating more problems for the future.
Egyption Meeting for Post War Reconstruction?????
Gee - who is going to attend that - do you think we will be there? Don’t you think people are getting tired of this?
Isreal gets to blast the dickens out of Lebanon and Gaza, with the equipment we supply them and some one else should fix it.
Should be interesting to see what Hillary has to say about this, or the planned Special Middle East Envoy. There is some question on who will head up the effort there. They need an honest broker on this.
What a mess - Well Barry said he had the answers and he wanted the job. We shall see how soon he votes present on this one.
Then there are the dead and wounded. Just thought i’d mention them. I heard 1700 dead last night — don’t know how many wounded.
not to mention all thier pets
move to the muslim country of your choice, why don’t you? look, only 2 muslim countries even recognize the right of isreal to exist; what does that tell you? that Hamas and friends only have peaceful intentions toward israel? here’s another idea, move to israel for a while, then see how you feel about israeli tactics.
1. There are Israeli soldiers in Gaza.
2. Israel bombed and killed hundreds of Palestinians.
3. Israel refuses to end the blockades as long as Hamas is in charge of Gaza.
Not a good outcome for Hamas.
If Israel is re-occupying Gaza and not re-opening the border crossings,
Then they’re lying when they’ve declared a unilateral ceasefire.
It’s not a ceasefire. It’s a re-occupation.
Not a good outcome for Israel.
MaryCAIRe -
A ceasefire is when you stop firing.
The US was the first country to recognize Israel’s independence. Part of the reason for this was Truman’s decades long friendship.
I’m sure the impact on the US military seeing the Death Camps played a part as well.
BO put Rahm Emanuel in place.
Israel still honors the tragedy of The Masada. I would never count Israel out.
Israel knows too well that she can only afford to lose once.
Jordan and Egypt could have easily welcomed Hamas. They could have provided virtually unlimited amounts of aid. But they refused.
Not a good outcome for Hamas.
yep, JulieD; mr. lang says:
“the Israelis have failed to humble Hamas. Rockets still arrive in Israel.”
rockets would still be arriving in israel no matter how much israel coddled Hamas, despite mr. lang’s fantasies that the muslim world just wants to live in peace with israel. i notice that he didn’t offer a solution that he believed *would* work; maybe that’s because nothing will stop people who would rather die than live in peace. i don’t blame israel for at least fighting back, whether it stops the attacks or not.
of course Hamas is going to claim victory; for them it’s all about the fight. fighting israel is a victory in itself, and they’re going to keep doing it for the foreseeable future.
Well, except that the world community is now disgusted by Israel’s brutality, and that will definitely change the mood at the United Nations.
Even Turkey, a non-secular Muslim nation–a democracy—is calling for an international arms embargo against Israel.
Egypt has refused to allow international troops on their sovereign soil to watch the border, as Israel has tried to push the United States to force them to do.
The worm has turned, Julie.
And that’s not a good outcome for Israel.
Maybe the United Nations will now force Israel to comply with the 65 UN Resolutions they have completely ignored , given that they think they’re ABOVE international law, and that they think Palestinian children are worth LESS than Israeli children.
Perhaps the rest of the world will see the brutality of the Israeli nation, and converge in holding them to international standards of common decency.
Good outcome for the United States , of course.
NOT a good outcome for Israel.
Due respect.
I’m not sure the IDF can really TAKE Iran, there are limits to shock and awe — strategically, it’s only the beginning of the battle, if one doesn’t see it as the opening shot, anticipating, truthfully, enemy moves, one will never prevail.
I wonder when they’ll attack Gaza, again, perhaps thinking they need to further weaken the foundation, driving the Palestinians out?
(Starvation, crating, bombing, respite, and then the cycle will start again, right?)
Hope they didn’t lose or destroy the data base for the Gaza donors for the Obama cause.
No, only their own country.
Some people get it, most don’t, Israel included.
I wonder what effect (if any) the following has on any proposed truce…
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=11680
War and Natural Gas: The Israeli Invasion and Gaza’s Offshore Gas Fields
by Michel Chossudovsky
Global Research, January 8, 2009
EXCERPT
Thanks Pat. News from Egypt on Gaza patients they are treating:
Children found with bullets lodged in their head
01/18/2009 11:15 PM | By Topaz Amoore/The Telegraph Group Limited
http://archive.gulfnews.com/articles/09/01/19/10276545.html
Haaretz is reporting that Israeli soldiers are openly saying their commanders gave them permission to do “whatever you have to do.” They’re BRAGGING about it.
I guess for people like Julie, shooting children in the head is ok.
Disgusting, aren’t they?
I think John Mearshimer’s article in The American Conservative Magazine this month is a very good assessment of what has happened [and yes, I'm fully aware of who Mearshimer is; I've read the book.]:
Another War, Another Defeat
The Gaza offensive has succeeded in punishing the Palestinians but not in making Israel more secure.
http://www.amconmag.com/article/2009/jan/26/00006/
Thanks for the link… very informative
what will make the israelis more secure? please tell us.
Complying with UN Resolutions, which they’ve been allowed to completely ignore by the Bush administration.
You know, kinda like Saddam Hussein was forced to comply with same.
Mary, just what are the UN resolutions that they have ignored, please?
yes, were it not for obstinateness.
PL do you have a feel for the prioritizing of issues with the SOS, Hillary Clinton, and President Obama, as to when this conflict will be seriously addressed given the other wars and hot spots?
Israel needs to rethink her strategy if credibility as a nation is one of her goals. She has had a long run of criticism-free coverage because policy challengers were afraid of the anti-semitic label. That card has been over played and now valid criticism is sticking. Unfortunately, true instances of anti-semitism will not be taken as seriously. That’s a shame.
Perhaps the dinosaurs in the government haven’t noticed that the internet has changed the game. The critical voices of many Jews and non-Jews alike–once shut out–are now being heard around the world, like that of Sir Gerald Kaufman.
Attitudes are changing as uncensored information flows freely. Instant videos of military actions and up-to-the-minute reports are available with cell phones, even though journalists are banned. We don’t need the MSM to filter the news and tell us what to think anymore. The history of the region, as well as present events, are as close as Google.
Reporters have now had a chance to go in and survey the damage. It’s not pretty. The CBS Evening News showed an old man sitting atop the rubble that was once his house. He was crying and said he was waiting for God to help because nobody else would. I wish I could offer him hope, but I don’t have any
at the moment.
“Hamas has offered a one-year, renewable truce on condition that all Israeli forces leave Gaza within a week and that all the border crossings with Israel and Egypt are opened.
A senior Israeli official said on Saturday the Jewish state planned to halt its offensive in Gaza without any agreement with Hamas. A Hamas official has vowed the group would fight on.”
Hamas certainly has moxy. They stand knee-deep in their own rubble and demand to set terms.
***********
Just for the sake of argument, let us suppose there
was an actual truce, a lasting armistice. Imagine
if Hamas and Hizbollah and Iran’s extremists did honestly recognize Israel’s right to exist. If
they joined in the reconstruction of Gaza with nothing in mind except peaceful intentions.
We rebuilt Europe and Japan. They were sworn enemies and had regimes so vile, only a merciful
God could forgive them. Yet they prospered and now rival the U.S. in economic power. Because they did not spend 90% of their GDP on fire arms. Imagine.
From a Canadian news source:
There have been $l.9 billion in damages to Gaza; $200 million to the infrastructure alone. It is estimated it will take 3-5 years to recover (working in a stable environment without blockades and arms trafficking, of course.) Imagine.
All the waring factions must do is recognize one another’s sovereign rights as neighbors.
That seems simple enough. Act like civilized, advanced citizens of a free world. Imagine.
(And my thanks to John Lennon’s timeless lyrics.)
“All the waring factions must do is recognize one another’s sovereign rights as neighbors.That seems simple enough”
LOL, yes but it’s amazing how difficult “simple things” can be.
“The Israelis have failed to humble Hamas.”
I think that’s a key to the problem, Patrick Lang. I don’t think we begin to understand a culture where honor is everything, where being humbled is viewed as worse than death. We can hardly even relate to the throwing of shoes and what that would mean to someone on the receiving end and not from the west. We find it kind of amusing, perhaps slightly humiliating, but it’s still a cultural gap we can’t quite grasp.
The more you try to humble them or force them to make concessions, the more intense they get. And yet if you give them concessions the parts of the Arab world that support them become stronger because they view it as a victory. It’s a real bind.
The trick would be to find a way to convince the Palestinians that their honor is wrapped up in maintaining a peaceful relationship with Israel. And Israel would have to let go of the strangle hold they are trying to maintain.
correct; israel is between a rock and a hard place. it’s going to be a long time before the arab countries that surround it give up the efforts to destroy it.
I am reminded of all the pundits and commentators who were quick to call, and still call the 2006 Lenanon war a defeat. Since then, Israel has had total peace and quiet on that border, and at the very hint of a rocket from Lebanon, Nasrallah immediately rushed to assure that it wasn’t Hezbollah. Let us hope this round in Gaza also becomes another such “defeat”.
Isn’t it amazing that Israel was never expected to pay for the damage they did in Lebanon, or that now they feel NO RESPONSIBILITY for Gaza, either?
THIS time, though, even Turkey has turned against them.
Depends on how one defines “success” and “defeat,” doesn’t it?
http://www.spectator.co.uk/melaniephillips/3271281/gaza-returns-to-rule-by-thug.thtml
Israel and the United States are committing war crimes in Gaza. And, “rule by thugs” is quite a statement, considering that Hamas was democratically elected. In the US, we held a democratic election in 2004 and “returned to rule by thugs,” when we re-elected G.W. Bush.
“Clear and undeniable evidence” of Israeli use of White Phosphorous in Gaza
http://news.antiwar.com/2009/01/19/israels-use-of-white-phosphorus-in-civilian-areas-clear-and-undeniable/
Indeed, mountain.
There are multiple international organizations condemning Israel this time, including the United Nations itself, over UN workers killed by out-of-control IDF members, and the many lies the Israeli political leadership tried to tell, but later changed their stories.
It’s quite different now. Israel’s “unilateral ceasefire, declaring victory” is being laughed at around the world , this time.
Not a good outcome for Israel, especially since Americans threw the neocons out of office, in favor of even-handed diplomacy.
Thanks for all your rational, factual articles you bring to the board.
At the risk of being considered a nutcase (and this would not be unusual as I have always remained on the outside of conventional “wisdom”
or comfortable beliefs), might it be possible that Hamas placed white phosphorous in harm’s way to further ignite anger against the IDF?
hmmmmm…as to the depleted uranium, that is
possible. They did get much in the way of arms
from the U.S. But the far left/right nexus is well-armed with rumor and disinformation to make its case. And they have militated against Israel since its inception. I have never fully understood the abject hate or ire tiny little
Israel engenders in opponents. It’s as if
Hitlerites vow to go to their grave seeking revenge.
The ultimate revenge is survival and Jews are famous for that affront against other ethnic groups. Just musing.
Well, it’s a legitimate question. After all, we’ve all seen accusations from Israel that Hamas actually killed the 350 children to spark outrage from the international community.
The answer is NO. An unqualified NO. Hamas couldn’t do it, and Hamas wouldn’t do it. Hamas doesn’t have access to White Phosphorous bombs in the first place, and Hamas knows full well that it’s future depends on support from Palestinians, who are no fools, let me tell you. They are shut off from the world, starving, and brutally oppressed; but they get information, they survive, and they would not stand for their children to be slaughtered by Hamas for political gain. They are not fools. The demonization of Palestinians by Israel is one of the most offensive parts of the entire history. Palestinians are a wonderful people; they love their children; they are warm, hospitable, and if you are visiting them, you wouldn’t believe the warmth you’d see from them.
Israel is a rogue state. Only a rogue state would do what Israel does in the Territories. Even Israelis admit it. The problem is, Americans largely don’t know that fact. But, I do. And so do many, many others.
We will continue to speak out, and to highlight Israeli voices that dissent, because Israel will not survive without their reason, without their voices.
A worlds record. 1247 cliches, wrapped inside the trite, punctuated by idiocy.
God help us. How much did he pay for this piece of drivel?
ISRAEL’S RIGHT TO DEFEND ITSELF
By Joseph Massad, The Electronic Intifada, 20 January 2009
http://electronicintifada.net/v2/article10221.shtml
“Not even high intelligence and a sensitive spirit are of any help once the facts of a situation are deduced from a political theory, rather than vice versa.” — Robert Conquest, author of The Great Terror, the first authority on Stalin’s Great Purge, 1936-1938.