Beware the Malthus mindset
By Old Grumpy Guy on January 26, 2009 at 3:00 PM in Economic Stimulus, Economy, Emperor's Clothing Syndrome, Energy Policy, OldGrumpyGuy
For those of you who may not be aware of the fact, Thomas Malthus was the Chicken Little of economics and the guy who created the concept of the “Malthusian Catastrophe”, with his predictions that the world would soon run out of food and other resources because of the rapid growth in the world’s population.
That was in 1798 (more than two centuries ago), when he published the first edition of his economic treatise - An Essay on the Principle of Population - pointing out that population growth generally preceded expansion of the population’s resources, in particular the primary resource of food.
In all societies,” he wrote, “even those that are most vicious, the tendency to a virtuous attachment is so strong that there is a constant effort towards an increase of population. This constant effort as constantly tends to subject the lower classes of the society to distress and to prevent any great permanent amelioration of their condition.”
What Malthus didn’t take into account was the fact that his prophecies were self-defeating, because increasing awareness of the problem led to greater efforts to make sure his prophecies were not realized. This was accompanied by great technological progress, which increased exponentially after the industrial revolution in Britain.
Since Malthus there have been many subsequent cries of alarm from others about the earth’s resources being unable to support the population growth, but every time these cries of alarm turned out to be self-defeating prophecies.
We have now entered a period where the Malthus mindset has once again taken root about resources and the prospects for economic growth. While it will almost certainly prove yet again to be a self-defeating prophesy, this phenomenon is unfortunately often accompanied (at least in the short term) by self-fulfilling prophesies of economic doom and gloom.
If enough people think that the economy is going to get worse, it makes it certain that the economy WILL get worse, because the belief itself fans the flames of economic disintegration. People stop spending, so the economy slows down. Because the economy slows down, productivity drops. Thus pessimism becomes a self-fulfilling outlook.
The fact, however, is that technological progress continues to accelerate in leaps and bounds, and many of the problems in terms of availability of resources can be overcome through the application of new technology and new ideas to energy, food, infrastructure and economic activity itself.
There is every reason to be optimistic about the longer term future, provided people are able to see the possibilities ahead of them and not get stuck in the Malthusian mindset that now prevails.
(The accompanying video, below, has nothing to do with Malthus, but is a kind of tribute to industry.)
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In general it works this way, government is the problem, not the solution. Why? Because government fosters an imbalance that favors services over industrial production. In other words, the most prestigious organizations revolve around professions that impinge on industrial output and benefits welfare for professionals. Thus the man in the video is not per se the target for consuming the output of his labor. The target of the manufacturing process is a service professional, such as an attorney or civil servant. Government is the one that seeks to nurture that imbalance. Manual labor has always been despised by government. Intellectualism is preferred over sweat.
That is why Palin was and still is the only public persona at this time qualified to lead America out its economic perils and back towards re-industrialization. Palin’s husband is a person that is versed in manual labor and Palin herself by virtue of rearing 5 children was seen many times giving interviews in her kitchen, while preparing meals for her family. No other candidate in the past elections had such a strong connection with manual labor. Actually the dear of this forum, Clinton is one that knows very little about it. She and the Obama’s are all about intellectualism.
Have I confused you enough now?
lark,
I understand your point. McCain’s message about our people (the workers) being the real way out of the situation, that we had what was necessary in place, was the right message.
But as far as Clinton goes, I see her truly as someone who does know the value of hands-on work. She works all the time. She came up from a middle-class background, so did Bill. That is why she appealed more to the working class people about whom Obama made put-down remarks about and whom he feared the most.
I will have something to say about “intellectualism” and the academic establishment in my next video - “The Cultural Revolution Starts Here” - which is a follow-on from my composer series and goes back to the introduction I wrote here on NQ for the series. It was headed “The Emperor’s Clothing Syndrome”. I discuss how many academic high priests - and not just in music or the arts - want to put an intellectual and spiritual straitjacket on people’s thinking and creativity.
Hillary Clinton understand labor better than any other politician out there except Bill. Hillary grew up in a home where her father worked at a factory and Bill’s step-father was car salesman. They understand the middle class and and implemented policies that benefited workers of all races and genders.
I like Sarah Palin, but she is actually contributing to the population explosion with her five children.
I don’t mean to pick, but having five children in a place as big as Alaska hardly seems like an issue, particularly when they are a self-sufficient tax-paying family, not asking the government for financial help.
Now if she had twelve children, I still wouldn’t agree, but I probably wouldn’t say anything in rebuttal!
Yeah, well then maybe you can tell me why MY taxpayer dollars have paid, and will continue to pay for, 15 year old ghetto teenagers having ten kids, smoking crack, never knowing the fathers of the kids, and refusing to work. I would bet that Palin is contributing to society, while those others are sucking us dry. But, that’s okay right?
I understand that BO was going to promote today two initiatives that would deal with energy production and energy independence. Except we know BO knows squat about energy, production or independence of any kind.
Compare that to Todd and Sarah Palin. They are intimately familiar with energy, production and independence. You don’t find too many people that are more familiar with energy, production and independence as them. But we sent them back to Alaska.
Now we have to listen to someone who has not a single cell in their body directly linked to energy, production or independence tell us about how we will become self sufficient and efficient energy rich.
Stupidity at work.
“Now we have to listen to someone who has not a single cell in their body directly linked to energy…”
You are so right. However, countless campaign contributions throughout his career are directly linked to energy, big energy that is. Any “energy independence” is just a smoke screen IMHO.
If the goverment would just give Americans a tax free summer, meaning there are no federal income taxes taken from your paycheck, and also tell banks they have to give people an interest free summer at the same time, meaning that you’d have the same payment due, but it would all be applied to principle, you know how much debt Americans would pay off in just three months? True, the banks make money by charging interest, but they have also taken on such a great risk. The fact that congress allowed the banks to double minimum credit card payments at the same time the banks were allowed to raise interest rates defeated the purpose of doubling the minimum payment and now, people are more in debt than ever.
Instead of giving the money to the banks, the goverment should give the money to the people and let the people pay the banks what they owe, so the banks will have less risks, and then they won’t see so much defualt and/or won’t have to raise interest rates so much, which cause more people to default.
To me, it seems like such an easy solution. When people carry less debt, they spend more without borrowing. They keep more money in the banks, so the banks have more money to lend. To me, a fifth grader could figure this out.
The banks have been behaving abominably. They literally took the bailout money and ran.
We’ve just come through the “take the money and run” economy, aided and abetted by the very government that was supposed to be “for the people.” If we can stop the theiving, then we can begin the recovering.
MaryKay: I like your idea. It’s sort of like FDR’s moratoriums.
Grumpy,
Thanks for your optimism.
I’m optimistic about the United States. As the world playing field is being decimated the US has the rare opportunity to reinvent itself. For years we have had to compete with former communist countries with a standard of living like Albania. That is all changing in our favor. We are a 14 trillion economy and the next biggest japan is at 4 trillion. I have heard much about China, but they are only a bare 3 trillion with internal strife on the way.
American manufacturing will lead the world out of this calamity….Guaranteed!!
The only way the US is going to be able to compete with China and the emerging manufacturing economies is through taking advantage of technological advances and retooling its old manufacturing base, but there are a lot of obstacles to this. I don’t think the US can compete at the basic levels of manufacturing - I think that ship has sailed - but I think the country can certainly take the lead in the more advanced form of manufacturing, taking advantage of its unrivaled socio-economic infrastructure, its home market and its natural and human resources.
The U.S. actually has all kinds of pressure they can bring against countries like China and India to insist on fair labor standards and responsible environmental standards, et al. However, as Hillary said, there has to be the political WILL to negotiate these things. U. S. pols are probably just too greedy to do the right thing.
You are right. The US definitely can bring pressure on China and India, but will not get far in changing labor standards and responsible environmental standards etc. Cheap labor is what they are trading on and environmental impact is the least of their concerns. That is why they are doing so well, and they will not change even under pressure, I believe. Their citizens would be the first to protest if they tried. The US is more likely to have an impact in using its muscle to bring about a more equitable trade balance.
OGG,
IMO, its almost a ‘Catch 22′ situation with regards to the US relationship with countries that provide cheap labor.
Cheap labor may be what some of these less developed and developing countries ‘trade on’ in the short term but ultimately, companies located in the more developed nations rely on this cheap labor.
They rely on it to produce goods at cheap prices so that they (developed nations’ corporations) can make a profit by selling these goods produced back to the countries that provided the cheap labor -as well as selling these goods produced to their own citizens.
It can get pretty dicey if developed nations feel threatened by emerging economies in these developing and less developed countries because ultimately, these emerging economies may wind up competing against the developed nations.
Rules and regulations must be examined carefully-especially strings attached to any funding provided by the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, etc…
Regulation which may on the surface appear to promote the best interests of nations in fact may serve to hinder these nations’ economic development in effort to force them to rely on developed nations for necessities.
Call it economic blackmail, if you will. You can also call it ‘Soft Diplomacy’ if you like.
It should never be taken for granted that developed nations have the best economic interests at heart when it comes to developing and less developed countries.
I remember listening to a lecture given by a trading consultant on how WalMart was buying bicycles for $7 from China and selling them for $150 in the US. At the same time Walmart was setting impossible production targets for its employees and often using this as a way of getting rid of workers who could be replaced by cheaper ones. The problem with such policies is that not only are the buying public not getting any real benefit when they are paying 20 times the cost price for goods; it also means that by reducing the earning power of US workers it is shrinking the buying capacity of its primary market.
ogg,
On the surface, this may appear to be a very unfair situation for both countries.
Walmart is a for profit corporation. Its goal is to make a profit-period.
I do not know who/what is to blame for the above scenario.
Is it US/China trade laws? Is it corporate greed? Is it something else?
If corporation relies heavily on employees in another country for cheap labor, what are the odds that corporation would want the nature of this working relationship to change ?
If it does, corporate profits would decrease.
Can Walmart charge American consumer less than $150 per bike?
It can but if it does, corporate profits would decrease.
The corporation’s goal is to make a profit.
Can the workers in developing and less developed nations provide anything else (skill or knowledge-based output) to the international trade marketplace?
Perhaps.
What is stopping them from doing so?
I dont know enough about US/China trade relations to answer this question properly.
I do not know enough about how much lobbying power (based upon its economic strength) Walmart can exert on both governments.
The law of supply and demand is very powerful when it comes to trying to explain why nations do what they do however…
there are many rules and regulations and strings attached to loans and financial aid that cloud up the raw economics of the situation.
The above situation you described is inherently wrong and unfair to consumers and employees (in both countries).
This is a great topic! You hit on something with the “advanced form of manufacturing”–the cutting edge, innovative stuff is where the US has always been strong. But we’d better get our math and science up to snuff in schools because other countries will overtake this. Plus our government used to be very business friendly and now that’s changing.
In regards to the overall economy, in Robyn Meredith’s The Elephant and the Dragon (about the rise of the Indian and Chinese economies) she makes very good points about Americans having to get used to going for different types of jobs and/or switching them more frequently as things change. It will be the new norm. She also notes…
White collar jobs are next. Computer programming is already on the move with accounting, HR, engineering close behind. Our government should be concentrating on creating a friendlier environment (taxes are big) to slow the flow. And this whole stem cell research issue, for example, is frustrating. If we do not do it, someone else will.
I always tell my kids they should become orthodontists or dentists. (The four day work week is not bad, either!)
A number of countries are ahead of the US in education. But the US has other strengths, particularly its infrastructure
And productivity per $ levels. Although this has not been achieved in a reasonable way as Americans now work twice as long for half the pay than they did in the 70s.
I have been amazed at how many Americans have two or three jobs. This doesn’t happen in Europe. Americans must be the hardest working people in the world.
Definitions of hard work v over worked. Holidays in the US are amongst the worst in the World. Average pay has fallen massively. Inflation was disguised from 1993, (1998 in the UK), which meant wage rate negotiations were skewed. Are Americans better off than their parents? Most definitely no, but the property boom made them feel “wealthier”.
Some of us love to work. I had the freedom to aspire to the job I wanted, got it, and love the work. If I didn’t, I’d just do something else until I found what I liked.
Work isn’t such a bad thing, after all.
Grumpy says
I don’t seem to be having a problem!
I’m an American manufacturer that has taken wholesale amounts of business away from China.
The Chinese are having a much harder time competing on price than just a few years ago and now they must deal with the fact that their image is damaged goods in the eyes of the public.
The consumer economy is dead world wide and Americans will look inward and buy local and do their patriotic duty which will facilitate manufacturing in this country.
I manufacture products for a thousand manufacturers and that is only going to increase in the future especially with a devaluation of the dollar coming in the spring.
China’s prices will continue to rise as they are forced to contend with an unhappy populous and unbelievable amounts of pollution and other health related issues.
I am very glad to hear of US manufacturers taking business away from China. But I note that you are selling products to manufacturers themselves. I think the reduction in the US and European markets because of the recession is causing all kinds of problems and making the populations of these two countries far more unhappy than they were before
Grumpy…I believe that America will be the last one standing after this blowout in the world economy.
Back in 1980 people were saying that America was finished and it was the day of the rising sun Japan..So much for that!
We have a golden opportunity to change the basic equation in our favor..I have no doubts that we will do just that.
As a caveat….
Things are bad and they are going to get a lot worse.People are hurting and this has only just started.
We have heard of the announcements of all these layoffs but we still have not seen the consequences as of yet. Real Estate will continue to drop and another 30 trillion in equity could be lost world wide.
However, I’m bullish for the long term regarding the united States. As long as we don’t commit national Suicide by spending the next four years investigating and prosecuting the previous administration we should turn out on top.
Remember..Most people can’t see the forest for the trees…
I absolutely agree with you. In fact, I believe the US will emerge stronger than ever. I don’t thing anything will change that outcome, no matter what the new administration does.
I actually agree with Seattle as well (off to check pulse), although I am of a mixed mind about prosecutions. I am also of a mixed mind about the information that was given to the President. If your Army says there is no torture, you have to assume there is no torture. You can only govern based on the info in front of you.
(A brilliant tv representation of that truism is Yes Minister, a BBC production).
That’s why I like you UK!
You’re a Bush hater but you want what’s best for the country. That takes maturity in thinking!
I am no Bush hater. I do not especially like politicians and ask any fan of any politician “what difference to your life as an individual will that person make”?
I accept that answer and follow the same principle.
I credit LBJ for caring about civil rights and the great society
I credit Nixon for China
I credit Ford for pardoning Nixon and preventing a national tragedy
I credit Carter for being a great ex president
I credit Reagan for being tough on the soviets and restoring patriotism to America.
I credit Bush1 for liberating Kuwait and not getting Saddam
I credit Clinton for staying strong in the face of relentless Republican attacks.
I credit Bush for keeping us safe and not caving on Iraq despite the many miscalculations
I credit Obama for his appointments.
This is just a short list, but like Benjamin Franklin I question my government regardless of who is in power and will give credit when do and will be critical as any great patriot should.
I would only add the following:
I also credit Nixon for visiting Russia and initiating SALT (Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty) and the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.
I credit Ford for being a good and decent man and helping heal a nation. (And the first president I voted for).
Cheers for that. I am not sure that there is too much that divides us. Although Iraq is probably the issue.
The problem is the issue of looking back, again I agree. Tell that to an Iraqi. There are some here (including people who definately should know better) that believe all Iraqis are terrorists and say so. Especially given that we are now supposed to be there as “peace keepers”.
We are there now, regardless. The future regime I do not see as being pro Western. Iraq has elected far too many Pro Iranian Politicians. US news just does not cover that. Elections are fine, however we in the West often do not like the result (HAMAS). As for Iraq, I can not help but think of the citizens. We killed over 1 million of them. Yes life was bad under Sadam. If you look the wrong way etc, life under a dictator will always be. A regular bod, however, making shoes in a factory probably has a worse life now than he did under Sadam. Who will that family blame if members of their family were killed by US / UK bombs?
Moving on, I would have welcomed a discussion with you about how to deal with the banking “Industry”. Regardless of any election hype about the Democratic Congress being to blame (!!!), this is something that exceeds the powers of Nation States. Big and Small as no economic model takes in to account the taxpayer funded removal of one party from the market.
UK,
I have said for years that we were living in a false economy. How can you have companies that only survive to increase shareholder equity by doing things detrimental to the long term health of the company.
Shareholders have been like leaches expecting ever increasing gains regardless of the consequences.
Only carrying about the next quarter on the stock market is no way to run a country or world economy.
Fortunately for me I am not beholden to stockholders and will make decisions best for the long term interests of my company.
That is only one part of this huge mess.
Would you like to add another part?
To be fair those share holders are pension fund holders. Those share holders are people with unemployment insurance. The annual 5% + increase in profits was needed because inflation was allowed to be a built in factor.
You are right, the whole economy was artificial and this is why the bank bail out is unlikely to work as this is not a bank bail out it is an economy bail out.
On the back of rising equity mid ranking staff (and you probably can verify this from your car park), were buying cars that were in reality out of reach. That pushed the inflationary economy further. Had property prices remained within the index two things would have happened; wage rates would have increased slowing demand for labour and interest rates would also have increased, reducing spending. Breaks could have and should have been employed. What is worse is that these breaks would have been automatic.
Quick clarification…I don’t actually hold any stockholders responsible as I happen to be one myself..Just the whole culture of never ending growth or the appearance of growth which has caused this crash.
Of course there is so many other reasons
An industry built on greed and speculation etc.
UK,
You might enjoy this web site that I review daily.
How about this for an irony..
Government has spent decades trying to make houses affordable. Today through the bailouts government is trying to keep houses unaffordable
http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html
I remain an 80s Thatcherite, economically. Greed is good. I have not removed from that position. That does not mean I am Republican because they have been taken over by religious nuts. What I do at work and in my bedroom is my business.
What has happened in the banking industry is not greed. It is stupidity. Banks for years had a loan to deposit ratio and an income multiplier for mortgage loans. This applied in the US and the UK. $100 loaned out on the basis of $10 deposited. Three times income for a mortgage.
Both of those assumptions provided for a sound banking foundation. There was no need for legislation, moving away from that model was just crazy. No one would do it. Except everyone did. Electronic money means that your credit record in the US is the same as the UK. The banks became global and they no longer needed to care about the money supply of the Country they operated in as they no longer operated in one Country.
Governments loved it as sales taxes on over inflated houses covered all sorts of goodies. They were not going to (and could not) stop it.
So now what can be done? Car companies made ever larger cars that people could not afford without a combination of housing equity and loans.
The electronics industry grew on the back of over inflated equity.
US workers pay is 1/4 of what it was in real terms.
The economy is completely based on debt. So how do you tell the banks to lend money? And sod the bail outs - you would not get one. The car companies had to beg (and do not get a real one). The banks use theirs to cover current loans. There is a snobbery towards “the Service Professions”, and it is they who put everyone else in this mess.
The guy who said greed is go ended up in jail for scamming the system with stolen information. That pretty much sums up the whole greed is good philosophy.
Agreed.
Greed is to good as overeating is to health.
The guy who said greed is good ended up in jail for scamming the system with stolen information. That pretty much sums up the whole greed is good philosophy.
I have to agree with you there.
He was Gordon Gekko, a fictional character played by Michael Douglas.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaKkuJVy2YA
He also attacked the banks and the fat cats in his greed is good speech.
We (not you )are Americans UKIe. We’ve seen the movie.
At that point Seattle, I enjoyed the discussion. Now the loons have arrived I am off to bed. I have bills to pay and need to work.
That site did provide an interesting discussion about what is happening in the property market, and I agree, we have spent $$$$s providing affordable housing and are now spending $$$$$$$$$$s stopping it being affordable.
PS Seattle - yah booh sucks - just in case some of the crazier ones think I was talking to you
UK,
I remember the days of Howard Wilson and Edward Heath.(Mike Yarwood show)
Only because my father was in the oil industry did we prosper as yanks living in England.
In those days entrepreneurship barely existed as socialism had turned the country into one shade of corporate blue.(Railways for the analogy)
Thatcher did bring England back and I thought Hillary could be the next Margaret…Oh well!
As for greed…I’m more guilty of providing a service that makes me good money and provides for many peoples lives. I never look at myself as being greedy and as a result I’m in a good position to weather this storm.(Knock on wood)
“For research, he read profiles of corporate raiders T. Boone Pickens and Carl Icahn.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_(film)
If enough people think that the economy is going to get worse, it makes it certain that the economy WILL get worse, because the belief itself fans the flames of economic disintegration. People stop spending, so the economy slows down. Because the economy slows down, productivity drops. Thus pessimism becomes a self-fulfilling outlook.
I have to disagree that it is a “mindset” driving global economies over the cliff. This is much bigger than a pessimistic outlook. Until 6 months ago, most people thought the economy was just fine; they didn’t know what was going on behind the scenes, with derivatives and credit-default swaps. Yet the economy was already wheezing and gasping two years ago. People were warning that the housing bubble was going to burst 4 years ago. We’re still just learning the scope of the devastation–fully half of the mortgage meltdown hasn’t even occurred yet; banks are bankrupt. Our government and the British government are clueless as to how to stop it, and worse, the interventions they are contemplating will make matter much, much worse.
People shouldn’t panic; at the same time, don’t think that a positive attitude will make everything turn out all right. At least don’t bet your future financial security on it.
http://tickerforum.org/smilies/popcorn.gif
I wouldn’t argue with any of that. But a very pessimistic outlook makes the situation worse.
The gist of my reflection was that one should concentrate on the country’s strengths and the opportunities for the future, and not let the neo-Malthusian/Chicken Little “the sky is falling” outlook obscure the longer term prospects and dash realistic hopes for the future.
That is absolutely fine, but this is not a consumer recession; this is an International Banking recession. In part caused because the major economies separated the housing market from the inflation indexes and ignored the banks moving from a multiple of income lending base to a $$$ per month standard. This meant almost everyone was getting “liar loans”, however property prices were increasing so everyone felt wealthier - if not better off.
Now the banks want to go back to income multiples and have effectively stopped lending. Any economic model assumes two interested parties, a buyer and seller. Banks however are not wanting to sell.
LMAO…Yeah, and the Dems didn’t cause all of this with Fannie and Freddie and the insane “free houses” for people who couldn’t pay their mortgages or never intended to do so.
George W Bush, 20 January 2005.
Anyway stupid Rethug, the foundations for this were laid by Newt and his “Contract for America” rubbish.
Carter started it and Clinton made it bigger and more threats to penalize banks if they didn’t cough up the free houses for minorities. Bush and McCain wanted oversight of Fannie and Freddie but the Dems lied and said everything was fine. In the meantime, Chris Dodd and Obama and all the other criminals were lining their pockets with money from this fraud. Get your facts straight. We know the liberals tend to lie a lot and fabricate who did what. But if you read you are aware that this one is on the Dems. Nice try though Obot.
Go read some basic economics. This is not about “free housing” to minorities..
Anyway 69 MILLION VOTES!!!!
Real philosophy is being discussed here and we get a pommy cheerleader regurgitating the latest claptrap rah-rah from botHQ. Give it a rest, UKforDumbs.
The econony is sinking fast. I personally know A LOT of people whose jobs, companies, etc. are in huge trouble - this is not just a self-fulfilling prophecy. My husband has seen a huge drop in demand for his company’s product - a product that everyone has to have, not a luxury. Interest rates for banks are zero, but they will not lend because they have no idea just how much bad debt they, or anyone else is carrying. People are not buying either because they are in shaky financial situations or because they are waiting for prices to fall further. When these kinds of conditions exist (which is rare) government is our only option. The same was true in 1929. Putting off doing anything then made the depression much more severe when FDR took over. And yes, his policies helped get us out. Not all worked, but enough did that he had halved unemployment by ‘37 when he was convinced to cut spending, sending the economy into another, more shallow slide.
In addition government spending does not necessarily favor services. Infrastructure development has been long neglected and is going to be funded. And don’t forget it was spendind on military hardware that completed our ascent from the Great Depression. (Not that I am suggessting we spend on that - although Bill Kristol recently did.)As for productivity, it will take too long for that to bail us out of our immediate crisis. By the way, the technology that has helped boost productivity so much in recent years is the internet - a GOVERNMENT CREATION.
As for savings, right now the problem is a serious lack of spending by consumers. The reason Bush’s tax rebate did little to stop the slide was that a large percentage of the money went to paying down debt understandable from an individual point of view, but not what the economy needs now. Had the money gone only to low income people, it would have been more effective because they have to spend what they get just to get by.
I think imaginative projects geared towards energy independence, high level manufacturing, as well as infrastructure, and maybe even another big space project (which propelled huge advances in technology and is estimated to have generated ten times more value than it cost) might help in the medium and long term.
Excellent idea, OGG. I am four-square with you on this. A renewed emphasis on exploration of our solar system coupled with a new type of Manhattan Engineering District project, designed to unlock the potential of fusion, cold, hot, or otherwise, imo, is the way to go. It is just beyond our grasp now but with the same sort of enthusiasm and can-do spirit, it could be done.
O god yes. I would go pick up aluminum cans along the freeway to help advance the space program.
Me, too. I watched Neil Armstrong, riveted, as he placed his foot on the lunar surface. It was exciting beyond imagination. I love science and its potential for our advancement, when political agenda don’t get in the way.
Fusion power would allow us to further explore our solar system and beyond but would also provide us with clean, and ultimately relatively inexpensive energy. The adversaries of fusion, though, will poo-poo it. These groups include the coal industry, the oil companies, and the utilities.
And with your current local interest in the big fly ash spill “at the Watts-Bar Power Plant,” fusion alternatives to power production must seem all the more desirable nowadays! (see, I’m paying attention):
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hCuUPH4bNcOtq-0PajMZoG1IbExwD95MHOP82
LOL. I know you are, oowawa. We can solve a lot of problems if we just put our creative energy and know-how to it.
With respect to the fly ash, actually TVA does a good job, all things considered. They made a mistake several years ago by not shoring up the berms.
Those of us who live here, for the most part, are understanding, as TVA has been a good company and neighbor and has done a world of good for East Tennessee, including flood control and relatively inexpensive electricty. It doesn’t hurt that it was an FDR creation, either.
Oh me, too, on the space program. I was a kid when it first started and look at all the technical advances the program has brought in a relatively short time. All that stuff our kids take for granted. It wouldn’t be here without the space program. When people pull out: OMG, we have problems right here on earth. Why spend that money for space exploration?
Drives me nuts!
How can it get better with Obama and Pelosi not giving a damn about AMERICANS and wanting to over-tax people who WORK and hand the money to people who don’t deserve it? Obama’s plan is poison for us. Period.
Old Grumpy Guy, IMHO this was the most effective of your experimental videos that I have seen. I liked the angular machine lines along with the music–so much in fact that I felt a bit of a letdown when the rounder lines of the human briefly appeared. I’d like to see your video art get even more abstract and hear your music selections get stranger and more modern (and no techno drumbeats). And that’s an example of why nobody pays any attention to my advice.
I’m glad you liked the video oowawa. But if by “modern” you mean the kind of atonal, minimalist or serialist nonsense promoted by the high priests of academic musicology (which I will be addressing in my next video) then I am afraid you will be disappointed.
Well, I’m familiar with disappointment. I can take it. But I sense your videos want to boldly go where no man has gone before. You will no doubt be looking to stretch the envelope musically. There’s lots of wonderful new music out there.
PS–The opening still frame of your video, as it appears on this page, is particularly lovely. Just a few streaks of color in perfect balance with the main silver strokes, against a dark background. I would hang that on my wall. And the musical accompaniment? Well, it would probably be something from the jazz field. Dizzy Gillespie comes to mind.
If you want to hang it on your wall I can do you a large print (for free) and email it to you. Alternatively I am doing a high definition DVD that can be used as a “wall gallery”.
Interesting diary.
Society has always had philosophies that run through it that influence different periods. I am Agnostic so it came as a surprise to me to find that my Scottish Atheist family projected the Protestant Work ethic to us even though they didn’t believe in the God that hard work was supposed to bring you closer to.
Even now, I work steadily from the first thing in the morning to when I go to bed at night and feel distinctly guilty if I take any kind of vacation or time off.
Will there be a new philosophy rising for this century I wonder?
One can only hope that whatever philosophy does emerge, it does not include rationalizations for the me-firsters, which is ultimately self-defeating. I would hope that it does include a critical examination of exactly where we may want to go, literally and figuratively, and how we might go about getting there.
One thing I have noticed for quite a long time is that individuals and societies make decisions based primarily on the present without contemplating the potential pitfalls of those decisions in the long term. One need not look too far for such examples. This emphasis on the present or near-term might be a “sound” business strategy but is not very good for societies, as a whole.
About a month and a half ago, I heard on the radio that someone had noted that the daylight was getting shorter by about two minutes each day, and at that rate, we’d be in total darkness by July.
I wonder… should I listen to that forecast or should I plant a vegetable garden?
This is a great observation and one that I appreciate.
It’s more fun to panic
Malthus, Ehrlich…
I have on my desktop a screencap of a Western Electric advertisement from the July 1920 Popular Science about coal running out and alternatives - hydroelectric being preferred - being needed in the near future.
It’s ironic that coal should be one of the country’s most plentiful sources of energy
It’s ironic that during the turn of the 20th century, England thought “the country’s most plentiful sources of energy” was coal and they ran out…of time.
Same old Dutch Windmills.
Grumpy, mass hysteria and leaders who talk down the economy without giving not hope, but a plan of action will have niether.
(to paraphase a hero of mine.)
@OT, Today I saw a P-51 Mustang inbound, just the sound of the motor alone makes a kite jeoulous. The inspiration and persperation all roled into one amazing example of imagination against a clear blue sky.
Funny, I studied the Malthus Doctrine 30 years ago in college. Zero Population was raging at the time, trying to get third-world countries to decrease their populaltions–no luck. Today, we’re seeing the ramifications of unchecked population growth. All the countries that did not try to adopt any controls now insist they have a right to freely enter countries that have tried to be responsible in this area. Gee, wonder what the U. S. government will do in regard to jumping the border?
I also studied, and taught this, in an Environmental Conservation course back then. The “Limits to Growth Model” by the Club of Rome (?) was also popular. If population growth is unchecked then the four horses of the apocalpyse kick in, they said. One thing also discussed back then in my courses, and acknowledged by the Carter Administration, was the energy crisis, and (no joke), Global Warming.
If we are to increase production and manufacturing, what will be the cost to go green and clean? Global climate change is forecast to disrupt or wipe out many economic activities in different locales, and sea level rise. But is all of that still seen as far away, so heck with it? Interested to hear your opinions.
There is a lot of argument about how real or not the threat of global warming truly is. But I think the challenges ahead are as much opportunities as the problems they present, just as previous Malthusian prophecies helped to stimulate activity that prevented the doom
No disrespect, but there really isn’t. The only reasonable and objective argument centers around what is responsible for the warming, be it an increase in solar output or a cyclical trend or man-made. If global warming is due to increased solar activity or something else not within our power to change, then we go about our merry way. If, on the other hand, it is something we can mitigate, the entire equation changes. This is the crux of the issue.
One thing to remember, the global warming scenario predicts erratic weather. I does seem as though we had some of that recently.
Big government will make you free, secure and happy, no Ferd? Don’t worry, soon enough government will say who lives and who dies, who eats meat and who eats vegetables. That day we’ll all be safe.
Huh?
What??
If climate change, from whatever source, goes unchecked, goverment becomes moot, as does the majority of the earth’s population.
Funny that in the planet on which the Jedi Masters lived, passengers on ships that approach it could see it fully populated to the hilt, every inch and every corner, and no one seeing the film asked questions related to how they fed themselves or had ample supplies of every good thing. The Galactic Republic was mostly interested in promoting population growth and freedom and liberty.
But today we are more interested in how we can control other people and make them do what we want them to do in order to make us happy.
300 years from now, the people in this planet will hardly resemble what we look like today. They will have many different features that will adapt them to the environmental conditions of their time.
As for us, our time in this earth is short and our purpose is grow and multiply and fill the earth with goodness and gladness.
Man those hash brownies must be good
“Man those hash brownies must be good.”
Oh God. Make me laugh. This is 1960s redux.
If global warming continues without some interdiction on our part, there is no 300 years from now. This isn’t belief it is objective data.
BOBO wants to burn more coal.
LMAO. Yeah, I’d just love to see more East Tennessee mountain tops razed for coal to allow me an unfettered view of Kentucky and so that I could have more flyash downstream and downhill of me since it presents such a lovely sight.
But but but… BOBO called it clean coal. Which mean it must be, right?
Clean coal is an oxymoron much like government accountability.
It really isn’t so much the burning of it, either. It is the extraction which is so detrimental.
The extraction could be done with a lit more foresight, but then we’ve had republicans running the show for awhile. They take issue with cleaning up the mess you made while you were making your millions. Having said that, worldwide Coal is the biggest producer of greenhouse gasses of all our fuels. If you’re serious about dealing with global warming, you don’t burn more coal.
What’s amazing Ferd is that we get to witness it all..The rise of industrial man and the crash of the eco system and man.
What a sad ride
Or better yet, the rise of some of the greatest Christian revivals ever thought off including TV evangelism and the demise of Christianity and Christian values with post-Christianity at hand.
Agreed, Seattle–it is sad. On the bright side, however, the problems we are facing are really opportunites, imo, to actually DO something about the problems we have created. Hell, these seemingly intractable problems could create new industries (and jobs, etc.). The time for recriminations is gone and the time to move forward, while rolling up our sleeves, is now. This really is a time to not only think outside the box, but to throw the box away.
I’m all for that..Since I make the liners for the box..LOL
Seriously..My contribution is to use special resins that make for thinner but stronger bags and also add biodegradable to the formula
And that is the sort of product we need to keep making and others like them. Good for you.
Liberty Belle..Did you have another name at one time?
Agreed, tek.
Unchecked population growth may be the most serious problem we face. Irrespective of our capacity for advances in technology, there is a finite amount of just plain old ordinary matter, much less useable resources, on this planet and wishing or believing that this very simple physical fact isn’t objective reality is naive, at best.
Not much, I’m afraid, and the time to have acted with any hope of success may be behind us, anyway.
The Mathusian doctrine written in 1798 was back when there was only 1 billion people and frontiers to be discovered.
Today we have 6 billion and the possible implosion and extinction of 90% including us do to using up all the resources in a short 100 years.
Agreed, Seattle.
Hardly. The only problem is that we want to look fat and plump and need to have five or ten or twenty times or 100 times what we need to live in order to be happy. I still have to plant tomatoes and peppers in the right of way between the street and the front side walk of my house.
If people were morally straight I could do that and no one will steal my tomatoes and peppers. I have a pineapple crown that I am planning to plant right in my front yard as well as the next four that I will buy at the grocery store. I planted one papaya tree in my front side yard that gave me one papaya on its first year. And about 200 extra seeds went to waste.
I stand by my original post. We have a finite planet and that is a physical fact. You can’t wish it away.
perhaps we are expected to grow our way out of shortages.
LOL. That might work if there was unlimited mass (or matter) to sustain unbridled growth. Unfortunately, there isn’t.
On this world there isn’t, but within our galaxy there is. Of course getting from here to there would require a level of cooperation among people that has not yet been seen in our history. To make matters worse the church of Rome was kind enough to seed our minds with the idea that the man or woman that could unite our planet in such an endeavor is the devil.
so it seems we are doomed.
Is is ironic that our own belief systems don’t allow us to dream, huh? We could easily explore this solar system with some hard-core research and financial backing of the type used to harness the atom.
In addition, I guarantee you if an alien life form made its presence known and it wasn’t exactly friendly, all the world strife would end in a New-York nanosecond.
There’s a phrase that the we liberals used back in WWII that went United we stand, divided we fall. You have to wonder about the veracity of any belief system inspired by an immortal being that would insist the children of it’s creation remain divided, and fall. It would seem if we were created in it’s image, we would be given the opposite advice. I have to question whether or not those who claim to be touched by god and inspired to write the passages that ended up in our religious texts, we’re really touched by god or if they were inspired by something that was much more dark.
That is the greatest sentence in this thread and a great insight. That is precisely what civilization is all about.
Hey, OT Larry, for the past two weeks or so, everytime I start with your top story, the page goes BLACK, no joke or pun intended, after I read other posts, and go back up to the top, the post is then legible.
that happens to me too
This is a great post, OGG and an outstanding discussion. Not only are you a music maestro, you are extremely knowledgeable about manufacturing and economics and history.
There is not much to be added here as others have covered the topic very knowledgeably. Sonic Ninja Kitty had an especially good comment.
Since several folks mentioned schools and education I was wondering if any one knows if the Junior Achievement program is still available in schools.
Un my day it was an after-school program designed to get young teens interested in economics and understanding manufacturing and to get turned on by creating a product. This would be a great program to get started again. It could give young people a reason to study and to learn subjects like math and science.
Thanks Bert. I always enjoy your comments. I developed what knowledge I have of industry and economics through journalism and through writing macro-economic lectures for captains of industry and government officials in Britain.
Bert:
I like the idea, with the caveat that the ultimate goal of the course would not be entirely devoted to the profit motive. One of the reasons I became a scientist was because I had a desire to understand why things worked the way they do. I am quite happy to pursue science for the money, but moreso for the joy I get from the knowledge that I have learned something of value–a value that is far beyond that of money.
Thanks for another great piece Grumpy.
Hey Grumpy! I don’t know if you “get” this American joke but someone just sent me this OBAMA AS A CHIA-PET LINK and it’s hilarious!!
CHIAOBAMA
lmao! I may get one.
OMG–and I thought I was being sacrilegious in suggesting that Tijuana would soon be doing a brisk business marketing black velvet paintings featuring O with a radiant halo and his noble chin slightly elevated. This brainstorm puts me to shame.
Welcome to the Holocene Extinction Event–where the forest cannot be seen despite the rapid decline in trees…
They had that the other night on the history channel
scary!!
Buckminister Fuller pointed out that there was a little noticed revelation in Scientific American (late sixties, I think) that we have the technology for the entire population of the world to live at a standard of living equivalent to middle class America (which was probably better then than now). This was his way of working around the Malthus-Darwin not-enough-to-go-around problem. Bucky invented the geodesic dome, and was fascinating but a tough read. He had some ideas on how to achieve the above–I think others should work hard on a solution with current technology.
The entire population of the world in the 1960s was half of what it is now. Had we listened then, we might be better off. Will we do something now? More than likely not as science is always at the mercy of political and religious agenda, neither of which coincide with the best path forward, either rationally or morally. Pragmatic responses to problems are part of a lost process.
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