The Fed Speaks
By Larry Doyle on February 19, 2009 at 8:10 AM in Ben Bernanke, Current Affairs, Economic Stimulus, Economy, Employment, Unemployment
Fed chairman Ben Bernanke spoke at the National Press Club this afternoon and offered revisions for the Fed’s economic statistics for 2009. What do the numbers mean? Here’s a recap:
– the Fed expects GDP for 2009 to end up between -.5% to -1.3%, revised from -.2% to +1.1%. The Fed obviously is expecting a contraction in our economy for all of 2009 and further added it does not see much of a pickup in 2010.
– the Fed is setting a long term inflation target of 2% but does not expect to see a pickup in inflationary pressures for a protracted period.
– increasing its expectation for the unemployment rate in 4th quarter of 2009 to 8.5% to 8.8%.
– the Fed has seen no indication of stability in residential housing markets in January 2009.
– some Fed governors have increased concerns about defaults and foreclosures in the commercial real estate markets.
– the Fed believes long term growth potential for GDP is 2.5% to 2.7%.
– the Fed realizes that at some point it will need to contract the growth in its balance sheet to mitigate chances of increased inflation.
What does all this mean?
In summary, the Fed is publicly acknowledging that the economic recession will be longer, deeper, and more painful. They are also offering that they are determined not to let deflation or the threat of deflation impede the economy.
I see no reason to rush into adding risk assets (equities or speculative credits) on the heels of this report. It is actually very interesting to see that some high profile individuals and institutions have actually been selling assets:
T. Boone Pickens
Pickens Reduces Energy Investments, Holdings Fall 97%
Warren Buffet
Berkshire Reduces J&J Stake, Turns to Fixed-Income
Harvard University
Harvard Retreated From U.S. Stocks as Market Tumbled
LD
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I figured it would be a couple years. We had a recession in the 80’s, took a couple years to come out of that and gee, we didn’t have bailouts and stimulus either.
I think the corruption and greed is worse than it’s ever been. I think the internet has played a part in that. It’s been easier for execs, bankers, Wall St, mortgage companies, lobbyists, “community organizers”, government officials-you name it, to engage in fraudalent activity and go undetected long enough to make a serious impact. It seems that millions of people just don’t think they have to play by any rules. And the ones that should implement rules aren’t playing by them either. We need some new leaders who have integrity, intelligence, real leadership, experience and who has the main goal of serving the people in this country and preserving our foundation. That’s it. I know we have some out there.
OT: anyone see the headline that Eric Holder is preaching to us now? (White) Americans are “cowards” about discussing racial issues. He said white Americans don’t have tolerance for blacks. (!) Um, I think we just elected a black president. I’m about fed up with these New Democrats saying that whites are intolerant. Why don’t they look at the blacks who have no tolerance for white Americans, or worse, only see them as potential victims?
This guy is Attorney General. He’s supposed to be seeking justice for all Americans. Sounds like he’s got an axe to grind.
Quite frankly, I am sick of hearing about race. Obama has set race relations 50 years. I’m tired of it. It is like a crutch AAs use as an excuse for their own lack of action. America has opportunity for all, don’t scream discrimination when you sit home and wait for it. Anyone of any color can be whatever they want to in America, but they have to go after it. It doesn’t just come to you. Holder is probably mad that the free stuff isn’t flowing yet!
I would love to write to Holder and tell him that racism ended on 11/4/08. That is what the MSM told me. That is why I will no longer discuss it, and just like Obama does when he doesn’t want to talk about something, let’s talk about the economy instead of these “distractions”. Maybe I will write to Holder and tell him just that!
well I would expect no less from this administration. Black people need to look in their own “backyard” for intolerance. They are the biggest offenders of this. Racist indeed, they need to look in the mirror.
Not that I want to pursue this topic on this thread but to be fair I read Holder’s comments and do not see where he differentiates between white and black on this issue. My better instincts think he is addressing this message to all Americans. His choice of words is poor. Additionally while there is always room for progress statistics do indicate progress on this front.
http://abcnews.go.com/TheLaw/story?id=6905255&page=1
Back to the economy…
Anyway intolerance from whites towards blacks is not an option anymore. The doom and gloom I feel will overtake us soon will just bring whites to the same attitude level of blacks and we will become a very large unhappy family of indignant atrocious irreverent procrastinators.
I worked through the 80’s recession and it lasted a couple years without a stimulus…imagine that. Unemployment was higher than 7 or 8% too.
But the corruption I think is alot worse and I am wondering if the technology of computers and the internet have made it much easier for people to get away w cheating. Of course, society does not ask people to be accountable so 75% of college students cheat then they think it’s ok to cheat on the job too. We have another Bernie Maddoff that is on the run after bilking investors. Do we have anyone watching the henhouse besides the foxes?? Until all of the cheating is exposed, the economy will not even begin to see daylight again.
LD – on Squawk Box this morning the guest host speculated that the fundamental problem is the over consumption of the middle class which was done with debt. They said if you looked at earnings in the last 8 years, the middle class held flat.
So – as the economy is more consumer and finance driven, with production comming down, there is going to have to be a major readjustment in consumption. Consumers and finace are tanking, hence the longer recession.
My impression as Bernancke was speaking is we have some one who is willing to use the tools of the Fed to address the issues to the extent they can. Greenspan was a ideologue who let the markets run wild with overleveraging and ducking the rules. I still wonder if finance acknowledges the need for transparency and fundamental rules to be observed by all.
I find it interesting that I am seeing and hearing more and more from Greenspan. It strikes me that he is trying to regain his status as a world renowned central banker.
He is calling for a degree of nationalization in our banking industry. He has also come out and stated that the TARP will be inadequate without properly addressing the banking situation. He has also called for increasing the capital ratios at the banks.
I always want to understand the professional relationships and associations that an individual has so as to weigh that in to my assessment of their perspectives. It just so happens that Greenspan is now an adviser to the hedge fund manager John Paulson and has been for the last year.
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2008/01/john_paulson_aquires_an_alan_g.html
Last I heard Paulson had covered all of his sub-prime shorts and actually gone long the mortgage sector.
Which hat is Alan wearing? Adviser to a hedge fund manager or formerly respected central banker.
The landscape for financial regulation will be very interesting to observe over the next months and years. I believe it will become much more global. I will be watching and writing and attempt to stay ahead of it as much as I can.
It was Greenspan who betrayed America and sold the world a bill of goods similar to that of Stanford and Madoff. Now we pay. Let our children be condemned.