Barack Obama’s Afghanistan Disaster

Barack did not start the war in Afghanistan, he did not mismanage the policy for the last seven years, but it is now his baby and will probably be his version of Jimmy Carter’s failure to rescue the U.S. hostages in Iran, only worse. For starters I encourage you to watch the following from Charlie Rose. Very informative and worth your time.

(Discussion about Afghanistan with Craig Mullaney, Dexter Filkins, Martha Raddatz and Milt Bearden in Current Affairs on Monday, February 16, 2009)

Here is why Barack is caught.

We do not have enough military forces and economic resources to commit to Afghanistan to make a significant difference on the ground. Those resources–both military and economic–have been consumed by the Iraq war and last years economic meltdown.

With out enough troops on the ground we do not have the ability to protect villagers who may want to cooperate with us. Our lack of force presence led us to rely heavily on air strikes. Big problem–air plane bombs are not precision weapons and we have killed enough civilians that we have given the Taliban and other opponents to the U.S. presence a great issue for rallying local support. We have become the bad guys. We are losing the Information Operations war.

Here is where it gets tricky. The Commander of the international forces in Afghanistan, General David McKiernan, says we need a troop level of at least 60,000 troops for at least three years.

Here’s Barack’s very first Carter moment–he is not giving the military Commander what the commander says he needs. But even if Barack could provide a full up 30,000 troops there is still a big problem–we do not have the logistics supply lines and bases in place to sustain such a force.

We have a big problem, worsening by the day, with our supply lines from Pakistan and Krygystan are being attacked and/or shut down. If we had more forces it becomes more critical, not less, to keep those opening and functioning.

Then we have the absence of a coherent, integrated strategy. A buddy of mine who has served with the CIA in Afghanistan told me recently that the CIA is not even conducting coordinated ops in country. There is not a coordinated plan. CIA operatives in Kandahar are doing one thing while those in Kabul are doing something completely different.

The military picture is worse. U.S. conventional forces are operating on a different sheet of music from that pursued by U.S. special operations forces and by NATO forces. In essence we have at least four independent, uncoordinated military efforts underway.

There are now two separate policy reviews underway in Washington. That in an of itself tells you that we still have no one in control. General Petraeus is conducting a review and President Obama has commissioned a review, which reportedly is being lead by Bruce Reidel, a former CIA analyst.

This is not about blaming Obama. But whether he likes it or not he is going to wear Afghanistan as his war. Milt Bearden is right about that. It is tough enough to wage a war when the economy is swell and the tax coffers are full. But with the economy in the toilette there are no easy, good options. This is like a bad TV series–Welcome Back Carter!