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NBC: Chuck Todd Re the POTUS “Glimmers”

By John Batchelor on April 15, 2009 at 3:05 PM in Current Affairs, Economy, President Barack Obama, Tax stimulus package

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President Obama’s lengthy remarks at Georgetown University were not to move the story but rather to frame the story. Confident but cautious. Hopeful but hesitant.

“There is no doubt that times are still tough. By no means are we out of the woods just yet.  But from where we stand, for the very first time, we are beginning to see glimmers of hope. “ 

initialclaimsrecessions.jpg

Chuck Todd correctly remarked before the speech that it may be too early to see “glimmers of hope.”   Way too early.

Calculated Risk observes that the dreary bottom of a recession is reached after the four week average of initial unemployment claims peak.  Still no peak in sight (left) as the number keeps climbing. Now at 657,250.   And once the trough is identified, there can be another twelve months of grim tidings before the markets turn up.  Also, employment recovery can be sluggish to the point of invisible.  And property values can be soft for six years after recovery.  The “glimmers of hope” speech may become an annual event.