What’s at Stake in Pakistan

Co-Written with Nail ‘em Up

The introduction of the AfPak plan — so named because rather than focus on Afghanistan it also incorporates Pakistan and the Pashtun populated border — seemed a big step forward for the Obama administration. According to South Asia experts, this plan was bound to succeed and seemed to have it all. But as time elapses the realities on the ground are raising questions about the wisdom of the plan — even if it was meant to be.

This proves that charting out a plan is different than implementing one. It’s certainly a positive step that Obama has “thinkers” on his side, but the reality is that academics, experts and academics are a dime a dozen. The US needs an implementation strategy, as well as someone willing to take charge and responsibility. Right now the plan has been to combat the Taliban. But if you want to kick the Taliban out of Pakistan, you need to understand Pakistan as well the NWFP, the intra-tribal friction, FATA (the Federally Administered Tribal Area), and of course the Arab influence.

The reality is the FATA has always been “sharia inclined”, meaning that the stage was set for what the Taliban were trying to gain. The society is already conservative. But the more cruel face of “Taliban-introduced Islamic law” started taking root during Musharraf era. Sufi Mohammad, the founder of Tehreel-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM), a Pakistan militant organization vying for implementation of Sharia law, was not confronted then and is not confronted now. I mentioned Musharraf because that was the time when the army should have acted to stop the radicalization of the area, but they did not are now finding it difficult to prevent rapid seepage. So technically the infamous Swat “peace” deal is with the TNSM and not Taliban. It is also pertinent to clarify that the deal was signed by the President Asif Ali Zardari after it was passed by the parliament and under a lot of pressure by the NWFP’s provincial government. Though the provincial government is led by a center-left ruling party, they have been acting in diametric opposition to their stated position and beliefs. Their submission to religious parties or groups shows that they have lost control and are operating at cross purposes with the locals.

This is the same Sufi Mohammad, BTW, who was financed the overthrow Benazir Bhutto’s first government. This indicates that this problem has a history prior to the events of the past several weeks. Reports in the Pakistani media confirm that the provincial bureaucracy has been involved in protecting Sufi Mohammad and his like-minded minions. In fact, the Commissioner of that area is considered one of Sufi’s followers. Why hasn’t the Pakistani state government acted against such people? The growing strength and influence of Taliban proves that Pakistan government is not able to take any actions.

It is important to point out that this radical interpretation of Islamic law is a transplant of Arab, Tajik and Uzbek influence. This form of fundamentalism, which is not to be confused with the religious conservatism of the Pashtuns, is not Pakistani in origin.

So, the US strategy should not be to force the government of Pakistan to “do more” but rather to do what has already been asked of it. There is still time to confront Sufi Mohammad in Swat, instead of striking out peace deals, given that Sufi Mohammad is the leader of TNSM and not the Taliban, a misunderstanding which has been propated in the media. Sufi’s son-in-law, however, is the leader of the local Taliban, which makes him like-minded of their ideology.

Not many know that when the Taliban try to took over Buner not only did they faced resistance from the locals but that again neither the state nor the US were there to support them. The Taliban were kicked out but were called back in by the help of the local bureaucracy, contrary to the will of the people. During their week-long takeover, they helped strengthen their local supporters in Buner, not only taking out their “enemies” but established headquarters in their homes. The idea that the Taliban have left Buner is a hoax. But there is still time to take on the insurgents before they move on somewhere else.

What needs to be done – along with military action by the US (and only when it is absolutely necessary and there are no options) – is to pressurize the Pakistani government to support the locals against the Taliban.

The absence of local leaders – whether they were killed or fled the area because of threats from the Taliban – has created a leadership vacuum. This needs to be filled by educated and broadminded individuals to represent the local sentiment but instead is being filled by the power hungry, illiterate Taliban.