What’s at Stake in Pakistan
By dcmediagirl on April 27, 2009 at 6:07 PM in AfPak Border, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sharia Law, Taliban
Co-Written with Nail ‘em Up
The introduction of the AfPak plan — so named because rather than focus on Afghanistan it also incorporates Pakistan and the Pashtun populated border — seemed a big step forward for the Obama administration. According to South Asia experts, this plan was bound to succeed and seemed to have it all. But as time elapses the realities on the ground are raising questions about the wisdom of the plan — even if it was meant to be.
This proves that charting out a plan is different than implementing one. It’s certainly a positive step that Obama has “thinkers” on his side, but the reality is that academics, experts and academics are a dime a dozen. The US needs an implementation strategy, as well as someone willing to take charge and responsibility. Right now the plan has been to combat the Taliban. But if you want to kick the Taliban out of Pakistan, you need to understand Pakistan as well the NWFP, the intra-tribal friction, FATA (the Federally Administered Tribal Area), and of course the Arab influence.
The reality is the FATA has always been “sharia inclined”, meaning that the stage was set for what the Taliban were trying to gain. The society is already conservative. But the more cruel face of “Taliban-introduced Islamic law” started taking root during Musharraf era. Sufi Mohammad, the founder of Tehreel-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM), a Pakistan militant organization vying for implementation of Sharia law, was not confronted then and is not confronted now. I mentioned Musharraf because that was the time when the army should have acted to stop the radicalization of the area, but they did not are now finding it difficult to prevent rapid seepage. So technically the infamous Swat “peace” deal is with the TNSM and not Taliban. It is also pertinent to clarify that the deal was signed by the President Asif Ali Zardari after it was passed by the parliament and under a lot of pressure by the NWFP’s provincial government. Though the provincial government is led by a center-left ruling party, they have been acting in diametric opposition to their stated position and beliefs. Their submission to religious parties or groups shows that they have lost control and are operating at cross purposes with the locals.
This is the same Sufi Mohammad, BTW, who was financed the overthrow Benazir Bhutto’s first government. This indicates that this problem has a history prior to the events of the past several weeks. Reports in the Pakistani media confirm that the provincial bureaucracy has been involved in protecting Sufi Mohammad and his like-minded minions. In fact, the Commissioner of that area is considered one of Sufi’s followers. Why hasn’t the Pakistani state government acted against such people? The growing strength and influence of Taliban proves that Pakistan government is not able to take any actions.
It is important to point out that this radical interpretation of Islamic law is a transplant of Arab, Tajik and Uzbek influence. This form of fundamentalism, which is not to be confused with the religious conservatism of the Pashtuns, is not Pakistani in origin.
So, the US strategy should not be to force the government of Pakistan to “do more” but rather to do what has already been asked of it. There is still time to confront Sufi Mohammad in Swat, instead of striking out peace deals, given that Sufi Mohammad is the leader of TNSM and not the Taliban, a misunderstanding which has been propated in the media. Sufi’s son-in-law, however, is the leader of the local Taliban, which makes him like-minded of their ideology.
Not many know that when the Taliban try to took over Buner not only did they faced resistance from the locals but that again neither the state nor the US were there to support them. The Taliban were kicked out but were called back in by the help of the local bureaucracy, contrary to the will of the people. During their week-long takeover, they helped strengthen their local supporters in Buner, not only taking out their “enemies” but established headquarters in their homes. The idea that the Taliban have left Buner is a hoax. But there is still time to take on the insurgents before they move on somewhere else.
What needs to be done - along with military action by the US (and only when it is absolutely necessary and there are no options) - is to pressurize the Pakistani government to support the locals against the Taliban.
The absence of local leaders - whether they were killed or fled the area because of threats from the Taliban - has created a leadership vacuum. This needs to be filled by educated and broadminded individuals to represent the local sentiment but instead is being filled by the power hungry, illiterate Taliban.
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Very informative. Thank you.
So I have this image of these “taliban” being pushed over the border to Afghanistan then pushed back to Pakistan in an never ending “march” of attrition.
This effort will take decades to effect and the time is not there to prevent what is occurring. In the process sympathetic alliances will shift as the “maryters” are used as props.
Is it true that much of what is occurring in Pakistan is a legacy of Russia’s invasion of Afghanistan?
Well, I can see this situation is even more complicated than I thought it was. I think I’ll stop pretending to be slightly knowledgeable about this mess. Thanks for the post, dcmediagirl.
TeakWoodKite: Legacy of Russia’s invasion of Afghanistan - yes mostly true. The mujahideen were funded and backed by the US and Pakistan during the Russian occupation of Afghanistan. But the Taliban is a different phenomenon based on their concept of sharia law.
I don’t want to get into the history of the Taliban right now. But in 2001 when the Taliban were kicked out of Afghanistan they moved into Pakistan to regroup and remarshall their forces. This unfortunately suited them because of the absence of the US and Pak army on ground ready to make their move. Since resettling in Pakistan they have spread - and set up a local version known as TTP (Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan) - literal translation Taliban Movement of Pakistan. The TTP is influenced and takes marching orders from the Afghan Taliban.
So you see, they actually started as a movement and then started controlling most of the areas of NWFP.
Although they found it easy to operate in Pakistani territory - i think that they will march back to Afghanistan too to fight US forces in the next couple of months. Reason: the US will send more troops and presidential polls.
Thanks Nail’Em Up for your response.
I can see why a person might see this a homogeneous problem between Pakistan and Afghanistan. If understand your meaning it is not, except for some common traits.
Gen. David H. Petraeus in recently testimony said that the Pakistan Army is ill suited to doing counter-insurgency work as they are configured for a conflict with India.
I don’t see how training the Pakistan military, which we have been doing for years, on counter-insurgency will have a long term benefits, when certain factions of the ISI and military are aligned with the “Taliban”.
What I don’t see happening is the co-ordination required between the Pakistan Army and the “Mult-national” and Afghan forces along with US foreign policy getting in sync.
P
The history of Afghanistan/Pakistan/Nh india /West india is from invasions from Mongol,Persian, Moghul & British Colonialism.
Therefore to be found in Pakistan are influences of all these but some are not in fashion. (British colonialism).There are peoples who practice a hybrid of Shamanism /islam to British educated elite.
I would not be looking at Arab influence so much as The Moghul traditions. The guy named Sufi is a also a hint.it would help to read up on Sufis.
This new Taliban may be funded by Saudis but the aim is Moghul. These guys are not old boring farts like OSL & Khaled but charismatic virile disciplined men with long wavy hair & rather attractive.
yeah Yeah = beat me up on this but it is a visually more attractive foe & they know Pakistan better than ll western experts & those fat puncy puffy pakistani men from Islamabad offices.
I totally agree with your last para.
However, the fact that Sufi Mohammad’s first name is “Sufi” is a hint of nothing other than his first name is Sufi. His name has no relation to Sufism, the mystical branch of Islam. Sufism’s tradition of thinkers and intellects is in direct opposition to the backwards, primitive beliefs of Sufi Mohammad and his followers. As a matter of fact, religious fundamentalists have been bombing and capturing the tombs of Sufis.
Pakistan’s future, religiously speaking, lies with Sufi Islam.
Thank you, very interesting the post, as well the comment above. Is it your guess that the Taliban will prevail when they march back to Afghanistan. Do you believe Hillary Clinton and Richard Holbrooke are effective, and in your opinion what influence guides Obama the most, in terms of the policies put forth regarding Af-Pak?
Thanks you two for your great outline of part of the Pakistan facts. The bigger concern is that India will become bolder as Pakistan get weaker. This is a tinderbox, and has been for a long time.
Our using Drones in Pakistan tribal areas forces the population right into the Taliban’s hands. They must be united against the foreigners that invade their lands, even if it is from Drones piloted from Nevada and missiles being fired without really knowing who is the target. We’ve sure made a mess of Iraq and Afghanistan, now on to Pakistan. The Iranians and Russians are laughing their asses off.
The bigger concern is that India will become bolder as Pakistan get weaker. This is a tinderbox, and has been for a long time.
I didn’t get the bigger concern part.
With regards to Clinton and Holbrooke, I agree with the statement that their hearts are in the right place but not their minds.
As far as Obama is concerned, AfPak is neither a policy nor a strategy. This is not surprising considering how thin his foreign policy experience was when he took office. And he is being advised by at least dozens of people - who give conflicting reports. AfPak, therefore, is an amalgamation of the conventional wisdom of all the stakeholders’ pitches - with concerned parties and participants including Afghanistan and the US Army in Afghanistan; Pakistan and the Pakistan army; think tank fellows, South Asian experts, intelligence personnel, etc. Let’s just hope that the main American players can put aside their squabbling, check their egos and the door.
Maybe we should shift this initiative to the PakAf plan. And btw, what is the plan, the strategy? Yes, what we want:
“is to pressurize the Pakistani government to support the locals against the Taliban.”
But have we seen any evidence that the Pakistani government is willing to do that?
From the little I’ve been able to draw out from the scanty reports is that the Pakistani government sent in the “Frontier troops,” poorly armed and not exactly thrilled to go into battle. And I’ve heard mixed reports that the Taliban retreated back to the Swat Valley, but that they still have several hundred men patrolling the Bruner area and are systematically and deliberately intimidating the locals.
It all seems like a tepid response to say the least. Added to that, I’ve read that the Pakistani army itself has been infiltrated with Taliban sympathizers, that the Taliban in the Swat Valley, something in the 6-8000 range, is less a raucous bunch of discontents then an army of ex-Pakistani military types, retired officers and hardened fighting men from surrounding countries. These guys mean business, mean, mean business. I don’t think the term “moderate” applies.
I’m beginning to feel Pakistan is the major front in this on-going battle, complicated by the fact that Pakistan is a nuclear nation. But then, Hillary Clinton predicted that Pakistan would be the major threat.
It’s a mess. And what’s the plan? I haven’t heard it yet.
For all our sake’s, I hope there is one!
Fascinating piece - well researched…thank you writing and for sharing…
I’ve posted on justsaynodeal.com (with a slightly edited title
Cheers to Larry, Susan & the rest of the crew @ No Quarter!
This is an excellent article.
Here is another excellent article :
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2009/04/27/farrukh-rehan-denial-istan.aspx
As the article says, there is a distinction between the Arabic version of taliban and Pakisthani culture. Pakisthan had a culture before Islamic invasions, until about 1947 they had a fairly mixed population. Thus it is not at all surprising to find a fine, and popular singer in Pakisthan, something that may as well become part of tumultuous history of Pakistan, if Taliban takes over Pakisthan until 2047.
Unfortunately however, nothing worked in Pakisthan as much as some existential grievance vis-a-vis India or hindus. It didn’t have to be this way, but grievance and imagination of the absolute has been cheap and has almost been institutionalized. Tremendous investment has gone into this to prop up this clouds, and each time it rises like a Ghost. It will do so in future too. Benzir Bhutto was not even so good in her first term, as she is in her death.
There was no country called “Pakistan” before 1947.
There existed country sides, villages and people, trees besides the mountains and their little stories in that part of the world.
There too existed Ghauri, Ghaznawi Abdali - who passed over the country before 1947.
The reality is that, the latter set has been very much with Pakisthan. Did I err too much in talking a little of the former set as Pakisthan ?
Here’s a clip of Hillary Clinton explaining it all in a nutshell. Brilliant:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dM1BG_NnHaA