Uncle Sam’s Dirty Little Secret
By Larry Doyle on June 18, 2009 at 9:01 PM in Current Affairs, Economy, Sense on Cents (Larry Doyle blog)
If a tree falls in the forest and nobody is there to hear it, does it make any noise?
If an agency is sitting on billions in losses but nobody asks about it, can we forget about it?
If an entire group of banks is sitting on hundreds of billions more in losses, and the media is not even aware of this banking system, can we pretend they don’t exist?
Oh, if only we could, perhaps our economic life would be so much simpler.
While Uncle Sam and the media can choose to overlook these institutions, the losses are real and will serve as a drag on our economy and nation for the foreseeable future. Yet, they receive very little attention. Fortunately, Bloomberg shed a hint of light on part of this problem today in writing, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac in Limbo as Geithner Seeks More Time:
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will remain in limbo as the U.S. Treasury secretary said the government doesn’t have time now to deal with the future of the two mortgage-finance companies it seized in September.
“We did not believe that we could at this time — in this time frame — lay out a sensible set of reforms to guide, to determine what their future role should be,” Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told the Senate Banking Committee in Washington today. “We’re going to begin a process of looking at broader options for what their future should be.”
Doesn’t have time or doesn’t want to admit that these agencies represent an ongoing and enormous drag on our economy? How so?
Fannie and Freddie hold 50% of the mortgages in our country. These entities are most likely sitting on hundreds of billions in embedded losses currently with limited prospects to generate real revenue. They have no viable business model at this point in time. As a result, rather than entering into an unpleasant and economically harmful dialogue, Geithner chooses to sweep this under the rug. How can Tim do this? Because Uncle Sam has allocated, if not necessarily set aside, funds for these agencies to offset future losses. As Bloomberg highlights:
The remainder of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s $400 billion U.S. Treasury lifeline should still be “sufficient” until the government decides how to restructure the companies, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director James Lockhart said in June 3 testimony to a House subcommittee. Washington-based Fannie Mae and McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac have already requested $84.9 billion in taxpayer aid through the Treasury’s program to buy the companies’ preferred stock to keep them solvent.
Over and above swimming in a sea of losses, both Freddie and Fannie are effectively rudderless. Fannie Mae’s acting CEO, Herb Allison, was recently appointed to oversee management of TARP funds at Treasury. Freddie Mac’s acting CEO, John Koskinen, had resigned and only returned when beseeched. While Koskinen has committed to retaining the role of chairman of Freddie, he can’t get out of his daily Freddie Mac responsibilities quickly enough as the WSJ reports, Freddie’s Accidental CEO Tries to Shed Job.
The dirtier little secret hidden by Uncle Sam is embedded within the Federal Home Loan Bank system. Why? After Uncle Sam, the FHLB system is the second largest creditor in our country with approximately $1.2 trillion in outstanding debt. While Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae’s portfolios are chock full of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS backed by conforming size loans), the portfolios within the FHLB system (12 regional banks) are stuffed with Jumbo mortgages, Alt-A, pay-option ARMS, and sub-prime. In short, lots of toxic assets and lots of embedded losses hidden by the artful deceit of the relaxed mark-to-market accounting standard.
Where are we going with these future wards of the state? I project that in 2010, we will see these 14 entities (Freddie and Fannie and 12 regional FHLBs) combined into one large government owned housing finance entity.
Shhhhh . . . don’t tell anybody!!
LD









































dayum!
LarryD GREAT work! Watch ur back too! I’m thinking you have given away all the secrets with this one! BRAVO Sir!
Unfortunately, for all of us, Geithner is a one-man shoe and apparently a control freak. He’s understaffed and apparently doesn’t seem to give a hoot.
That One and his shiftless and worthless crew need TO MAKE TIME. Excuses will not work. If they aren’t amenable to finding the requisite time, then perhaps we should “inspire” our elected Representatives to do what is necessary to force those who can make the time on this idiot of a POTUS we’ve been saddled with. I think it is high time the real employers in this country take the reins away from the hired help.
oops! — i.e. one-man show
Administrator:
Can you rescue my comment from the shredder?
Thanks
Ferd
Larry-shouldn’t BO and Geithner be dealing with this potential disaster instead of trying to take on healthcare right now? It all seems like a house of cards.
Another interesting post. Full accountability of every penny is needed at this critical juncture in the country’s present econonic mess; ignoring a problem never resolves it.
You know, Larry, I think this goes back to “narrative accounting.” It’s been going on for a long time and no one has been called on the carpet, as if the day would never come when it all hit the fan. But now that moment is very close. Yet, the insiders are still churning the message because it has always worked before.
The game is up. And sooner rather than later most Americans will realize that and pull out the torches and pitchforks. President Obama made a startling comment while on his European Tour when he warned the banking interests that “he” was the only thing standing between them and the angry mob.
But even Obama’s spell can’t stop the numbers because they are the one thing that do not lie. Those ARMs are going to reset in the fall and continue to damage us into 2011. There’s all sorts of grim fallout on the horizon. Green shoots?? Cut me a break. We’re headed for the weeds. And happy talk won’t do a thing to stop it. It infuriates me and I predict that when Americans realize the extent of the real damage and absolute malfeasance from both political parties and many financial institutions, the howl will be deafening.
The Fed, the Treasury and the Administration, both current and past, lied to us. The MSM has been deliquent in their responsibility. And I won’t even start a rant on the US Congress. But they’ve all failed, miserably.
Batten down the hatches. We’re in for a very rough ride.
Btw, thanks for all you’re doing, Larry. At least we have some analysts willing to keep us informed and have enough respect for the public to actually tell the truth.
You know, when most of us average people start having trouble paying our debts, if we decide to ignore them in hopes they go away, they usually just grow bigger and the bill collectors start harrasing us mercilessly!
Who’s we? He hasn’t added any staff to help out.
Your thread has left me speechless.
It looks like Geithner is like that one. He is ‘voting present’ so to speak.
Your hunch is startling.
Here’s my hunch: Congress pressures Geuthner into hiring staff. He appoints a Czar who reports to him. Congress has no say. Little by little, Congress has less say about anything, doesn’t know what is going on and is no longer needed. Then constituents have no representation, not that they did much anyway. (half joking) You may know the ending.
To anybody who think that the foreclosure numbers are going to level out yet continue for 2 to 3 more years until all the adjustable have reset and all the prime loans held by people in financial trouble have gone in foreclosures, I have some news for you:
What started in the previous hot spots in Florida, Nevada and California is now spreading all over the country, namely being upside-down.
All the homeowners who do not have any financial problems but who have a life (ie: having children, relocating for their jobs, retiring, etc.) are now facing the ugly reality that if they want to sell their house, they have to come up with cash to close. House prices have fallen so much that equity have vanished and that purchase prices are not covering reimbursement of the mortages. The sellers have to come up with the difference.
This process is now accelerated with the underappraisal of houses. For few weeks, appraisals are coming back so low that the sales cannot go to closing. The banks are underestimating the house values by 10 to 15 %. That means that if you want to close on the sale of your house the price has to be lower by 10 to 15% than its real market value. That 10 to 15% puts many of the home owners upsidedown even in “good” markets.(This is of course a slipery slop as recent sales become comparables and so on and so forth.)
It is therefore completely predictable to see a massive wave of foreclosures of “convenience” coming:
Homeowners who have no financial difficulties electing to “recuperate” the 10-15% loss imposed on them by the underappraisal of their houses, by stopping payments for whatever time it takes to go in foreclosure and working away with cash in their pockets vs. left on the closing tables.
Delaying dealing with Fannie et Freddy is an enormous mistake. By the time they get to it, the problem will be much much bigger than now anticipated.
I warned about all of this last year
http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/07/18/is-the-house-finally-considering-impeachment-of-bush/
Comment at 2008-07-19 03:20:45
My criticism was of the Congressional leadership, not Democrat voters or non-Politicians.
They are working for their campaign donors, The Investnent Firms and banks that provide the big ticket junkets and campaign dollars, cocktail parties, private jets. And they haven’t even tapped the Insurance and Pharmacuetical dolllars yet. I smell money.
They have Chris “My head is stuck in the cookie jar” Dodd spear heading the healthcare bill. How comforting….
I do not know of any middle class person or home owner who has experience any type of relief in the form of home mortgage assistance. If they have a job, they are still hanging by a thread. Its bad out here and Washington seems to be so unaware.
I see the senate has apologized for slavery well get ready folks pretty soon you are going to hear the word ‘repatriation’, I wonder who is going to have to pay for this ?
I think everybody would like to know more about what to expect in our financial, economical future in our Country and around the World. Read:Globalresearche.ca, I don’t believe everything they say, but some looks really desturbing.