Iraq–Dawn of Hope or Audacity of Hubris?

We pulled out of Iraq’s cities today and Allah only knows what comes next. What do you think Iraq will look like a year from now? A placid Arab nation with a flourishing economy and revitalized night life? A theocracy struggling to imitate Iran? A bloody mess of balkanized provinces divided along sectarian and ethnic lines?

I vote for the latter. And I think reporter Tom Ricks would agree. Ricks posted the following at Foreign Policy today:

Several times the Bush administration tried to transfer responsibility for security to Iraqi army and police forces, only to see them unable to handle the burden. Now, once again, the Americans are trying to get Iraqi security forces to take over, as most U.S. troops withdraw from Iraqi’s cities. Will the Iraqis be able to keep the population relatively secure? To be honest, I don’t know, and no one else does. It’s a matter of faith. And the leap comes tomorrow.

The key issue is whether Iraqi forces will perform any better than they have in the past. U.S. officials, at least in their public comments, say they will. “I do believe they’re ready,” Gen. Raymond Odierno, the top commander in Iraq, said on CNN on Sunday. “They’ve been working towards this for a long time. And security remains good. We’ve seen constant improvement in the security force, we’ve seen constant improvement in governance. And I believe this is the time for us to move out of the cities and for them to take ultimate responsibility.” But, as he says, it is a matter of belief.

Here’s a contrary view given to Reuters by Khalil Ibrahim, a leader of a unit in the turned insurgents the Americans call the Sons of Iraq: “Iran has good relations with our political parties. They run militias. If the U.S. troops complete their withdrawal, Iran will do whatever it wants in Iraq. . . . Also, if the Americans pull out, al Qaeda will return.”

Meanwhile, Abu Noor, a college student in Baghdad, told my old colleague Ernesto Londono that, “We all know the militias are hiding because they know the Americans are inside the cities.”

Who is right, Odierno, or Ibrahim and Abu Noor? No one knows. Yes, Iraqi units are better trained and equipped than in the past. But that was never the problem. Rather, the point of failure was political. Sunni death squads and Shiite militias knew what they were fighting for, while an Iraqi soldier didn’t necessarily.

My worry is that I don’t see the political situation as being much different than it has in the past. Nothing much has changed from the previous rush to failures. As readers of this blog have seen me say before: the surge succeeded tactically but failed strategically. That is, as planned, it created a breathing space in which a political breakthrough might occur. But Iraqi leaders, for whatever reason, didn’t take advantage of that space, and no breakthrough occurred. All the basic issues that faced Iraq before the surge are still hanging out there: How to share oil revenue? What is the power relationship between Shia, Sunni and Kurd? Who holds power inside the Shiite community? What is the role of Iran, the biggest winner in this war so far? And will Iraq have a strong central government or be a loose confederation? And what happens when all the refugees outside the country and those displaced inside it, who I think are majority Sunni, try to go back to their old houses, now largely occupied by Shiites and protected by Shiite militias?

The differences between Sunni and Shia factions is real. The Shia are the majority. But the key to power, as taught by Lenin, is in the barrel of a gun not the seat of the Congress. If the militias come back to provide neighborhood protection we will be left with the equivalent of middle ages-style castles providing protection to the vassels surrounding them.

There is a bright side to such chaos. The Iraqis and the Iranians will be so preoccupied with their own internal battles to obtain and maintain security that they are likely to have little time for creating terrorist mayhem in other parts of the world. In any event it is not likely that Barack Obama will be able to point to Iraq and take credit for the “progress” in politics. The bombings and killings will be too disconcerting. If, however, the Iraqis figure out a way to coexist as the U.S. troops are withdrawn from Iraq then Barack will be taking a victory lap, whether deserved or not. Stay tuned.

One final point. The deadline of 30 June was a Bush creation. Obama is executing Bush’s policy. Who gets the blame and who gets the credit? My guess is Bush and Obama will share both in the coming year. If Iraq goes in the shitter you can be sure we will see the Olympics of fingerpointing as the Obama and Bush crowds square off. Meanwhile, the Iraqi people will be paying the price in blood and suffering. Hope or Audacity?