Iraq–Dawn of Hope or Audacity of Hubris?
By Larry Johnson on July 1, 2009 at 6:17 AM in Current Affairs
We pulled out of Iraq’s cities today and Allah only knows what comes next. What do you think Iraq will look like a year from now? A placid Arab nation with a flourishing economy and revitalized night life? A theocracy struggling to imitate Iran? A bloody mess of balkanized provinces divided along sectarian and ethnic lines?
I vote for the latter. And I think reporter Tom Ricks would agree. Ricks posted the following at Foreign Policy today:
Several times the Bush administration tried to transfer responsibility for security to Iraqi army and police forces, only to see them unable to handle the burden. Now, once again, the Americans are trying to get Iraqi security forces to take over, as most U.S. troops withdraw from Iraqi’s cities. Will the Iraqis be able to keep the population relatively secure? To be honest, I don’t know, and no one else does. It’s a matter of faith. And the leap comes tomorrow.
The key issue is whether Iraqi forces will perform any better than they have in the past. U.S. officials, at least in their public comments, say they will. “I do believe they’re ready,” Gen. Raymond Odierno, the top commander in Iraq, said on CNN on Sunday. “They’ve been working towards this for a long time. And security remains good. We’ve seen constant improvement in the security force, we’ve seen constant improvement in governance. And I believe this is the time for us to move out of the cities and for them to take ultimate responsibility.” But, as he says, it is a matter of belief.
Here’s a contrary view given to Reuters by Khalil Ibrahim, a leader of a unit in the turned insurgents the Americans call the Sons of Iraq: “Iran has good relations with our political parties. They run militias. If the U.S. troops complete their withdrawal, Iran will do whatever it wants in Iraq. . . . Also, if the Americans pull out, al Qaeda will return.”
Meanwhile, Abu Noor, a college student in Baghdad, told my old colleague Ernesto Londono that, “We all know the militias are hiding because they know the Americans are inside the cities.”
Who is right, Odierno, or Ibrahim and Abu Noor? No one knows. Yes, Iraqi units are better trained and equipped than in the past. But that was never the problem. Rather, the point of failure was political. Sunni death squads and Shiite militias knew what they were fighting for, while an Iraqi soldier didn’t necessarily.
My worry is that I don’t see the political situation as being much different than it has in the past. Nothing much has changed from the previous rush to failures. As readers of this blog have seen me say before: the surge succeeded tactically but failed strategically. That is, as planned, it created a breathing space in which a political breakthrough might occur. But Iraqi leaders, for whatever reason, didn’t take advantage of that space, and no breakthrough occurred. All the basic issues that faced Iraq before the surge are still hanging out there: How to share oil revenue? What is the power relationship between Shia, Sunni and Kurd? Who holds power inside the Shiite community? What is the role of Iran, the biggest winner in this war so far? And will Iraq have a strong central government or be a loose confederation? And what happens when all the refugees outside the country and those displaced inside it, who I think are majority Sunni, try to go back to their old houses, now largely occupied by Shiites and protected by Shiite militias?
The differences between Sunni and Shia factions is real. The Shia are the majority. But the key to power, as taught by Lenin, is in the barrel of a gun not the seat of the Congress. If the militias come back to provide neighborhood protection we will be left with the equivalent of middle ages-style castles providing protection to the vassels surrounding them.
There is a bright side to such chaos. The Iraqis and the Iranians will be so preoccupied with their own internal battles to obtain and maintain security that they are likely to have little time for creating terrorist mayhem in other parts of the world. In any event it is not likely that Barack Obama will be able to point to Iraq and take credit for the “progress” in politics. The bombings and killings will be too disconcerting. If, however, the Iraqis figure out a way to coexist as the U.S. troops are withdrawn from Iraq then Barack will be taking a victory lap, whether deserved or not. Stay tuned.
One final point. The deadline of 30 June was a Bush creation. Obama is executing Bush’s policy. Who gets the blame and who gets the credit? My guess is Bush and Obama will share both in the coming year. If Iraq goes in the shitter you can be sure we will see the Olympics of fingerpointing as the Obama and Bush crowds square off. Meanwhile, the Iraqi people will be paying the price in blood and suffering. Hope or Audacity?
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Larry -
I wish for them a flourishing nation. But realize, sadly, that the reality will be far from that. And that’s our shame. And equally sad is that with just a few months in office, Obama has taken over Bush’s audacity of hubris mantle in earnest.
Under the US Occupation, the situation of Iraqi women has continued to deteriorate. In addition to torture and sexual violence perpetuated by U.S. Occupation forces, a great number of Iraqi women and girls are kept locked up in their homes by a very real fear of abduction and criminal abuse. Since the invasion of Iraq, Iraqi women have been denied their human right, including the right to health, education and employment.
Prior to the 1991 U.S. war and the 13 years of the genocidal sanctions, Iraqi women enjoyed unquestionable quality rights to education and health. Iraqi women had the most progressive human rights in the region and Iraqi women were the first Arab women to hold high positions in academia, law, medicine and government. Before the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq, Iraqi women made up 40 per cent of the public-sector work force. Men and women received equal pay for work, education and health care were free at all levels. In the 1980s, a government program to eradicate illiteracy among Iraqi women was exceedingly successful, and women have traditionally enjoyed freedoms not found in other Arab and Muslim countries.
In addition, Iraq’s Constitution was the most advanced in the Middle East, if not the Muslim World. Women rights are enshrined in the Constitution, which was dissolved (together with Iraqi Police and Security) by the U.S. Occupation and replaced by a U.S-crafted “Interim Constitution”, produced without women’s representation, which deprives Iraqi women of their rights and dignity. In today’s Iraq, crimes and abuse against women were back to the levels before independence from colonial Britain 1958. The crime of rape was capital offence under Iraq’s Constitution.
Thanks, BARB, for pointing out the concerns we should have for the other half of humanity. Peace will never come anywhere until everyone axknowledges that women’s rights are human rights.
Larry wrote:
I’d hate to think that it’s going to take huge female militias to solve the world’s problems. Thwere should be another way.
“The Iraqis and the Iranians will be so preoccupied with their own internal battles to obtain and maintain security that they are likely to have little time for creating terrorist mayhem in other parts of the world.”
I would not count on this one.
Al Quaeda has declared war on Sarkozy’s France:
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.3ec79e2e7a25748f4b9623ac728de663.611&show_article=1
Larry – My brother is an ARMY doctor, at Ibn Sina, one month into a six month stint (great timing, no?). His emails detail little about security in the Green Zone – what are you hearing? my heart stays in my throat most of each day lately…
No matter what happens in Iraq, I believe that the sycophantic MSM will try to spin it into a victory for Barack Obama. If Iraq goes from bad to worse, Obama will be praised for getting us out of that hopeless hell-hole. Just like O is now touting the “jobs saved” in the face of rising unemployment, he will congratulate himself for the “lives saved” should there be mounting chaos in Iraq.
Thanks for the report, Larry. I agree that “a bloody mess of balkanized provinces divided along sectarian and ethnic lines” seems like the most likely outcome.
I agree–the media will spin it as best they can to favor Obama, and may even supress disconfirming data. I have found in recent times that the BBC and news outlets from other countries tell me much more about what is truly happening in the world.
Very good post, Larry.
Of course, Biden will then take credit for suggesting long ago that Iraq split up along the same lines. By pointing to that violence as confirmation of his vision.
And I agree, the media will help BO/Biden with selling it all.
Right, Karma. I forgot about that. Joe Biden thought Iraq should be split up into 3 different areas–Kurds, Sunnis, & Shiites. Of course, Joe Biden is not allowed to take credit for anything: there’s only room for One Supreme Credit-Taker in Thee One’s administration! (However, blame is freely available to everyone else.)
LOL
Mr. Johnson, any comments on the remarks made by Michael Scheurer on the Glen Beck Show 6/30?
After watching the clip, any sane person would have only one conclusion.
He is off his freaking rocker! Anyway, Glen Beck thinks he is “honest and a man of integraty”…nuff said.
Sort of like kicking your 25 year old out of your basement. It’s time to go.
Iraq’s future has to be in their hands, sooner or later.
This is as a good time as any.
i agree they should have stepped up to the plate years ago..
“A bloody mess of balkanized provinces divided along sectarian and ethnic lines”
I am voting for that one.
Iraq isnt really a country, its more a matter of geography. A lot of the region is that way, seeing as many of the borders were drawn up for the convenience of French and English interests.
First point; we had nothing to do in Iraq, there was no AlQaida link in Iraq, there were no WMD. The only real thing was aside the Bush/Saddam feud was teh fact Saddam wanted to switch the petrol payment currency from US dollars to Euros.
We have made a mess of our very own making, we have been clueless about how to win and how to complete a war in afghanistan, and we are stupid when it comes to the management of our own POW, we did better in 1945. Barack team is naive and rather not good at been active not to mention pro-active. Europeans are worse as those who oppose the war enjoy to see us in the pit but refuse to see AlQaida is the one who wins at the end, and those who came along are rendered mute by shame of being wrong in the beginning. So we have people who were wrong who maybe right now, people who were right at the beginning who are certainly wrong and cowardly now.
lovely mess
starting to feel glad to be old and likely not to see the end of this uter despicable mess
dems are fools conservatives are idiots
and Uncle sam is footing the bill
Good post Larry… I saw in the news today that Joe Biden is being sent over to Iraq and will now be heavily involved in whatever “solutions” are evolving. Joe has long been a big fan of the balkanization of Iraq, suggesting 3 loosely federated states (Shia, Sunni, Kurds) instead of a strong central gov’t. Given the way the MSM is spinning this assignment my guess is that Joe may be getting his chance to see how the receptive the Iraqis would be to this idea.
I always knew that Iraq was going to be a success – yeah – in fact when Georgie came to me for advice on war strategy I told him he needed to surge in there – I knew he’s take my advice because I won
threefour purple hearts and 2 medals of honor – he was even willing to give me total control of the entire U.S. Defense apparatus but I told him that I was too busy with my new career as a heart surgeon – which I started after winning a Pulitzer Prize as a journalist for NationalEnquirerGeographic. Yeah – that’s the ticket!I think Iraq will eventually become a country of rival factions, tenuously held in reluctant cooperation, with political favors used as manipulation, and that manipulation will be controlled by an iron-fisted dominant executive, who remarkably resembles Saddam Hussein.
Then we can all congratulate ourselves on what we accomplished.
Oh, I almost forgot, the embassy will have to be electrically re-wired.