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Unearned Smiles in Moscow

By John Batchelor on July 10, 2009 at 8:04 PM in Current Affairs

Originally published July 6, 2009 at the blog for The John Batchelor Show.

 


The Jewel in the Crown.  

Steve Cohen, NYU, spoke Sunday 5 of a new cold war that is a dominant theme in Moscow since the early years of the Bush administration and that continues zestfully into the new Obama administration. POTUS has reversed his campaign pledge to cancel the deployment of a part of SDI into Poland and the Czech Republic. POTUS has not commented on the plans for Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO. Vladimir Putin insists upon both the discontinuing of SDI at the borders of Russia and that Ukraine and Georgia remain out of NATO.  Of all the jewels, Ukraine is the most treasured in the crown of Imperial Russia (Putin is a ferverish nationalist) and will not be permitted to break away. Putin is adamant.

The Russians are conducting live-fire military exercises on the Georgian border at this moment as a clear insult to the POTUS visit.

Steve Cohen told me the military exercises are also a response to the NATO war games of two weeks ago on Georgia. The new cold war is bruising both ways.

What Is To Be Done?

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The chatter (above) about missile decommissioning is facile. The unearned smiles on POTUS and Putin’s choice stooge Dmitry Medvedev illustrate the aimlessness and harmlessness of the ceremony.   Steve Cohen pointed to the efforts by Russia to present concessions, such as opening an air corridor over Russia territory to reach Afghanistan. The US is not offering any concessions.

Both Steve Cohen and George Friedman, Stratfor.com, mentioned that the US needs Russian’s help with Iran, but that Russia will not offer and the US is not in position to ask.

Steve Cohen’s recommendation is that Washington listen to Moscow’s priorities with regard security, trade and the threat of the jihadists to Russia’s Moslem population. George Friedman looks to Poland as a vital and long term fertile ally in Eastern Europe that will eclipse Russia and link closely to Europe and North America.   None of these concerns are on the table for the conversations in Moscow. Today POTUS meets with Putin.  Putin is a vastly more potent and militant leader than POTUS.  The Moscow verdict on POTUS may have been communicated by a member of the ruling party to the Wall Street Journal correspondent at the White House, Jonathan Weisman. 

“Overall, Russia is skeptical of Obama,” said Sergei Markov, a senior legislator from the ruling United Russia party. “They are afraid he could be a smiling George Bush.”