The Unanswered Questions About the Najibullah Zazi Threat
By Larry Johnson on September 30, 2009 at 7:33 PM in Current Affairs
I am puzzled by the apparent hype surrounding the arrest and arraignment of the alleged Afghan terrorist, Najibullah Zazi. I would like you to read this story for starters:
An Afghan immigrant was on the verge of unleashing a terrorist attack on New York City on the anniversary of the September 11 attacks but was scared off after drawing suspicion from police, prosecutors say.
Najibullah Zazi, 24, was stopped by police on September 10 as he entered the city, and he dropped his plans for an attack once he realised law enforcement was onto him.
Zazi was sent to New York on Friday by federal marshals to face charges of conspiracy to use weapons of mass destruction. Law enforcement officials allege the plot focused on blowing up commuter trains.
Here’s what does not make sense. How can he be ready to carry out an attack on 9-11 when he has not made the explosives or had in hand the improvised detonator and the backpacks? Please understand I am not dismissing Zazi as someone who, with sufficient time, might have done something, but the evidence available so far paints a picture of someone who was still an amateur and still (thankfully) woefully unprepared to cause mayhem.
Let’s go back to the story:
Prosecutors said Zazi received explosives training from al-Qaeda in Pakistan and returned to the US bent on building a bomb.
Over the northern summer, he and three associates allegedly went from one beauty-supplies store to another in a Denver suburb buying chemicals to make explosives like those that killed dozens of people in transit bombings in London and Madrid, investigators said.
At least three and possibly more of his accomplices remain at large, and investigators have been fanning out across New York in pursuit of suspects.
This tells us a couple of important things. Most importantly it is clear that the FBI had this guy and his cohorts under surveillance since at least June. That’s a good thing. The FBI has a pretty good track record of penetrating and monitoring aspiring terrorists.
Second, Pakistan remains a hotbed for Islamic extremists and is allowing terrorists to train inside Pakistan territory. If you consider last year’s attack in Mumbai, India, which was prepped and launched from Pakistan, perhaps we should be paying more attention to Pakistan and less to Afghanistan.
Finally, just because Zazi “received training” does not necessarily he achieved a level of excellence and proficiency in killing innocents. His conduct suggests he may not have been the star pupil at killer’s camp.
Back to the story:
Zazi ran a coffee cart in Manhattan before moving to Denver this year and obtaining work as an airport shuttle driver.
Police have been especially active in the Queens neighbourhood Zazi visited during his New York trip. While there he stayed at an apartment with a group of cab drivers and food cart operators he knows.
He was working as an airport shuttle driver? What the hell!! So much for George Bush closing the loopholes on aspiring terrorists being able to work at airports. This should be a wake up call to the Obama. Aviation security is still inadequate and serious vulnerabilities remain.
I am surprised that even though Zazi “stayed” with cab drivers in NYC those men did not turn up with any evidence of assisting Zazi in making explosives or prepping an attack. Remember this:
FBI raids beginning on September 14 rattled the quiet, mainly Asian neighbourhood.
Muslim men said dozens of FBI agents ransacked their homes and questioned them for hours, sometimes taking DNA samples and prints from their shoes.
We still do not know why the FBI launched the raids on 14 September but it is clear that they did not scarf up a truck load of incriminating evidence. Also note the date–14 SEPTEMBER. If Zazi was intent on attacking on 11 September it is clear he failed. No explosives have been recovered so far. Just some acetone and hydrogen peroxide.
The FBI has also been visiting beauty shops and home-improvement stores in Colorado and New York for details about the alleged bomb-making purchases.
Court papers say that during the summer, Zazi and three unidentified associates bought “unusually large quantities” of hydrogen peroxide and acetone – a flammable solvent found in nail-polish remover – from Denver-area beauty supply stores.
Zazi intensified his bomb-making experiments this month, cooking up substances in a Colorado hotel suite he rented on September 6-7 before driving 2500km to New York over the course of about two days.
FBI has been pretty coy about whether or not they had video surveillance on Zazi but, based on the info about the purchase of large quantities, it certainly appears that the FBI was keeping close tabs on Zazi.
Zazi, for his part, was demonstrating his ignorance in trying to cook up a batch of TATP–Triacetone Triperoxide. It has been the explosive of choice in several Al Qaeda operations over the last 16 years but it is dangerous shit to make and handle. Richard Reid reportedly had it molded into his shoes. This stuff is so volatile that explosive experts are amazed that Reid did not self-detonate with the simple act of walking through the airport concourse.
TATP, although a high explosive and fairly easy to make, is very unstable and very difficult to handle reliably. An old friend of mine who has his own range and conducts courses on building improvised explosives for engineers told me of a doctor in Louisiana who insisted on learning how to make TATP because he wanted to blow up stumps on his land. Well, seems the good doctor tried to cook up a batch in his kitchen and he ended up blowing up the back half of his house (he survived the blast).
Check out what the prosecutor claimed about Zazi:
Neff said Zazi “was in the throes of making a bomb and attempting to perfect his formulation”.
Trying ain’t doing. And TATP is not something you casually work at trying to “perfect.” That’s a recipe for killing your own ass.
There is more to this then we are being told. I believe that prosecutors and law enforcement sincerely believe that Zazi wanted to do something. But, as I have emphasized repeatedly on this blog, desire is not the same as capability.
At least this incident reminds us that despite all of the chest thumping about military prowess in the so-called “war” on terrorism, good old fashioned law enforcement and intelligence work are more important in making sure terrorists cannot hurt us.
Finally, Zazi was not making a “Weapon of Mass Destruction.” Can we cut out the horseshit on hyped language? A nuclear bomb is a weapon of Mass Destruction. A backpack bomb, while quite capable of killing people and destroying some property, is not a mass destruction weapon. Let’s be precise in describing the threats and the capabilities of those who want to harm us.
(Release: November 13)
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Not meaning to be dismissive either, the whole thing sounds like something off a MacGyver episode. From the VOA story.
http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-09-29-voa40.cfm
Malicious intent, maybe. A would be terrorist maybe. Then again, I imagine after this story a fair number of high school kids with the Internet have already googled how to do this. Not because they want to be terrorists, just that they like the idea of blowing up the trash bin, or maybe a stray cat. With all the talk of renaming terrorists, and getting rid of the green and blue alerts… all the talk of removing fear from our minds… surely releasing the news of this “victory” has caused more fear than the “terrorists” involved has caused… so far. So far being the key phrase. But, in stopping crimes before they happen, I fear the lesson learned will be that by so doing there is 100% effectiveness. Especially when most of the suspects won’t be charged or if so, the charges won’t eventually stick. When we do this, is it really a win? If actual terrorism is stopped… then yes. If we stop terrorism which isn’t there… then it is just a win for terrorists. Because they get us to fear them with no risk to their cause whatsoever.
I think both David “Spy’s Like Us” Cohen who runs the NYPD Intel section blew it by overreacting and NYPD Commish Ray “The Great” Kelly hungry for headlines jumped the gun leaving the FBI holding the bag. Like this has not happened before with Cohen and Kelly. So I think the US Attorney is moving ahead with anything he can get his hands on so not to be totally embarrassed by the buffoonery of Popeye Kelly and Agent 86 3/4 Cohen….. .
PS… since when is a TATP bomb a WMD?
When it is used to set off a nuke.
“When it is used to set off a nuke”
Yeah and the Somalis will have a nuke before that happens…
Larry, wasn’t there a report from a NYC truck rental company on September 10th about a bunch of swarthy-looking men, who wanted to rent a truck, the biggest truck this particular rental agency had but were ultimately turned down for lack of proper ID? Was Zazi and his crew attached to that? I never heard one way or the other. But I remember reading it or hearing that story on one of the news outlets.
Something else that troubled me. Am I being a conspiracy nut or cynic to think that this info all came flooding in just as the Patriot Act was coming up for debate?
It’s getting very difficult to know who or what to believe anymore. And it’s not a good feeling.
Peggy Sue I know exactly what you mean. Everytime there is an incident like this you wonder if it is staged for effect–just like the “surprise” about Iran having a secret nuke stash–so secret Obama knew about it during transition. The net effect of this administration is a generalised mistrust of everything political or media. Maybe not a bad thing?
Exactly, Listing. Sometimes I wish I could turn away from all the reports and flood of information, not ask the questions or make the disturbing connections.
Maybe I’d be trusting then. Blind but trusting.
Very troubling. In fact, there are days I have to turn everything off, read something totally unrelated to current events or recent history, just to get my head on straight.
I call them mental health days. They’re important! Msybe, life-saving.
They sure seem to catch a lot of stooges, inexperienced guys who don’t really seem competent enough to tie their own shoelaces. I worry that these people are being used to divert the FBI’s attention.
Right on. And you should see some of the people they let run around loose. People who have access to all sorts of information related to vital infrastructure…not just airports.
Re: Zazi – I hear many allegations but nothing in the way of hard evidence (Zazi planned this, he researched that, etc, etc.) If he is guilty, he should go to prison for the rest of his life … just long enough to clear the mandatory appeal. But where’s the beef (evidence)?
Another part of the story that doesn’t make sense–especially after reading the Wikipedia entry about TATP’s instability, as well as the story of the doctor who blew up part of his house–is why Zazi would rent a hotel suite for chemical experimentation. If I were planning to experiment with a volatile substance, I certainly wouldn’t do it in place where maid service comes in daily to change the sheets. I’d find a nice remote quonset hut or Butler building while I was working on the formula–not the bathroom in my hotel suite. Daft.
When a nation is going through a challenging period, whoever the leader happens to be must establish a bond of trust with the people. Obama has done everything possible to negate that trust. Put differently, he asks us to trust him, but he does not trust us, does not confide in us. As leaders go he is incompetent.
There must have been 10 different Al Qaeda stories in the past weeks, including 2 purported bin Laden tapes.
This clown, like all the rest, was undoubtedly hand led & spoon fed every freaking thing he knows about bombs by the FBI. Sure he’s a malicious little toad, but dangerous without US assistance? Not.
btw, did anyone see how Germany just passed its own Patriot Act?
http://wsws.org/articles/2009/sep2009/germ-s30.shtml
“The Interior Ministry, currently headed by Wolfgang Schäuble, plans to expand the authority of the German state to spy on its own citizens. The domestic secret service will be given far-reaching powers and the separation of the police and secret services will be largely abolished.”
The Germans got another “Bin Laden” tape too, 2 days before their federal election (more Merkel). I’m sure they feel so much better.
Myself, I think Bin Laden is dead. But he is worth more alive than dead to both sides. So, he lives on. After reading more, these guys could have been planning on doing this in a hotel room. Among other things, the hotel ice machines would have been handy. One of the casualties of this war on terror has been trust. Congress, two Presidents, law enforcement, the press… all of them could have helped more here. None have done what is needed to close this trust gap. If Bin Laden was alive he would be laughing.
I’m sure they’ll thaw him out on the appropriate occasion one day. ugh.
Since Obama doesn’t have a Tom Ridge to gin up the terror color he has to make do with this Zazi guy.
Haven’t posted much here lately, but visit often enough.
Must agree with Larry, this story is odd in much the way that he argues.
Mr. Johnson, your point about him working as an airport driver is where the rubber meets the road.
An Airport driver is a fair way to transport certain items / parties in low key mode.
That he made it to NYC, must have been a difference of opinion between the FBI and NYC-CTU.
The ubiquitous NYC cab driver eh? and coffee stand?
All dead drops?
IMHO… This article and most of the responses to it smack of the same arrogant and dismissive attitude that make us vulnerable in the first place…
Really? Arrogant and dismissive attitude ?
I can remember when blowing up and hijacking airplanes was a national sport in this country. I can remember when Boston, New York and Chicago were bombed. I can remember the Red Brigade, the meinhof baader gang, Black September, Jamaat ul-Fuqra and lets not talk about some of the cults we had to deal with.
Did we back in the 70’s and 80’s go nuts? No! Did we create new super security agencies? No! Did we alarm the US Population at every possible threat? NO!
We took care of business the old fashion way..and it worked. By the way, we tried some of these people in our Court system as well…
So its not arrogant and dismissive attitudes its about doing the job the right way..and we are not…that’s the attitude.
Oh example you ask of not doing the job the right way?
AFGHANISTAN….
It worked???… Where were you on 9/11…??! (just to name one instance) Yeah… it has worked really well… You have made my point for me…
You don’t post here much, do you?
Chief.. your clueless .. and I was in DC on 911 where were you?
Zazi looked very calm in the arrest videos, which struck me as strange for a 24 year old.
The 9/11 perpetrators pulled a lot of dumb stunts, drawing attention to themselves unnecessarily.
As a citizen, “better safe than sorry” seems right, and yet it would definitely be wiser not to expend resources on wild goose chases.
By the way, we have had both motels and moving vehicles explode when people were cooking meth.
I don’t believe for two seconds that Zazi represents anything even remotely approaching a credible threat. This arrest, IMO, was solely for the purpose of distracting people from sinking support for Obama’s health care “reforms”.
We see it every time the president wants your attention somewhere else. Bush did it, too, with his terror color codes and that group of screwballs in Miami. Distract the people from important things by screaming “terror!”
Here’s one citizen who isn’t buying it.
Well, well. The plot thickens?
The Patriot Act… use it or lose it?
Interesting stuff no doubt, then again these are interesting times.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/Patriot-Act-helped-foil-New-York-terror-plot-8316210.html
I wouldn’t underestimate the danger of this guy. He is probably like the 9/11 terrorists, willing to blow himself up to kill ‘infidels’. Unfortunately, we are so afraid of being politically incorrect/correct, that they are afraid of turning someone like this down for a job at the airport if he would apply. If you stand in line at an airport, and the customs/security suspects someone in line, they are not allowed to even question that person, less they be guilty of racial profiling. This is stupid and as a country there needs to be much more vigilance in this area. Just my opinion, however.
He probably got the job on his father’s recommendation since his father also works as a shuttle driver in Denver. They took the father in for questioning and released him.
I believe the guy was a budding terrorist wannabe, and not very bright.
And thanks, Larry, for asking everyone to use the language more carefully. “Weapons of Mass Destruction” and “WMD” have become meaningless terms now, used in jokes, for heavens sake.
Right on target. Oh by the way, the Imam? He was a informant for Agent 86 3/4 Cohen and NYPD Intel and guess who blew the investigation by showing the Imam a pic of Zazi? You got it NYPD Intel.. Good job Cohen………..
——
October 1, 2009, 8:25 am
Rush for Clues Before Charges in Terror Case
By A. G. Sulzberger
morning buzz
Federal prosecutors have said they possess a trove of evidence in their terrorism case against Najibullah Zazi, a set of damning accusations laid out in a powerful narrative. It begins with explosives training in Pakistan, followed by purchases of bomb-making materials in Colorado, experiments in a hotel room and a cross-country trip to New York, which the authorities feared might have been the target of an attack.
But interviews with people briefed on the case — and an examination of court papers filed by prosecutors — show that a great deal of the evidence presented against Mr. Zazi was not a result of a long investigation.
Instead, much of it was collected on the fly in the last two weeks, with hundreds of F.B.I. agents, federal prosecutors and detectives rushing to fashion a mosaic of details into a case that could be brought to court.
The review of the government’s presentation, which is largely included in a preliminary court document filed last week, suggests that many important facts asserted by prosecutors were discovered after Mr. Zazi was told by a Queens imam on Sept. 10 that investigators were looking for him. [NYT]