The Unanswered Questions About the Najibullah Zazi Threat

I am puzzled by the apparent hype surrounding the arrest and arraignment of the alleged Afghan terrorist, Najibullah Zazi. I would like you to read this story for starters:

An Afghan immigrant was on the verge of unleashing a terrorist attack on New York City on the anniversary of the September 11 attacks but was scared off after drawing suspicion from police, prosecutors say.

Najibullah Zazi, 24, was stopped by police on September 10 as he entered the city, and he dropped his plans for an attack once he realised law enforcement was onto him.

Zazi was sent to New York on Friday by federal marshals to face charges of conspiracy to use weapons of mass destruction. Law enforcement officials allege the plot focused on blowing up commuter trains.

Here’s what does not make sense. How can he be ready to carry out an attack on 9-11 when he has not made the explosives or had in hand the improvised detonator and the backpacks? Please understand I am not dismissing Zazi as someone who, with sufficient time, might have done something, but the evidence available so far paints a picture of someone who was still an amateur and still (thankfully) woefully unprepared to cause mayhem.

Let’s go back to the story:

Prosecutors said Zazi received explosives training from al-Qaeda in Pakistan and returned to the US bent on building a bomb.

Over the northern summer, he and three associates allegedly went from one beauty-supplies store to another in a Denver suburb buying chemicals to make explosives like those that killed dozens of people in transit bombings in London and Madrid, investigators said.

At least three and possibly more of his accomplices remain at large, and investigators have been fanning out across New York in pursuit of suspects.

This tells us a couple of important things. Most importantly it is clear that the FBI had this guy and his cohorts under surveillance since at least June. That’s a good thing. The FBI has a pretty good track record of penetrating and monitoring aspiring terrorists.

Second, Pakistan remains a hotbed for Islamic extremists and is allowing terrorists to train inside Pakistan territory. If you consider last year’s attack in Mumbai, India, which was prepped and launched from Pakistan, perhaps we should be paying more attention to Pakistan and less to Afghanistan.

Finally, just because Zazi “received training” does not necessarily he achieved a level of excellence and proficiency in killing innocents. His conduct suggests he may not have been the star pupil at killer’s camp.

Back to the story:

Zazi ran a coffee cart in Manhattan before moving to Denver this year and obtaining work as an airport shuttle driver.

Police have been especially active in the Queens neighbourhood Zazi visited during his New York trip. While there he stayed at an apartment with a group of cab drivers and food cart operators he knows.

He was working as an airport shuttle driver? What the hell!! So much for George Bush closing the loopholes on aspiring terrorists being able to work at airports. This should be a wake up call to the Obama. Aviation security is still inadequate and serious vulnerabilities remain.

I am surprised that even though Zazi “stayed” with cab drivers in NYC those men did not turn up with any evidence of assisting Zazi in making explosives or prepping an attack. Remember this:

FBI raids beginning on September 14 rattled the quiet, mainly Asian neighbourhood.

Muslim men said dozens of FBI agents ransacked their homes and questioned them for hours, sometimes taking DNA samples and prints from their shoes.

We still do not know why the FBI launched the raids on 14 September but it is clear that they did not scarf up a truck load of incriminating evidence. Also note the date–14 SEPTEMBER. If Zazi was intent on attacking on 11 September it is clear he failed. No explosives have been recovered so far. Just some acetone and hydrogen peroxide.

The FBI has also been visiting beauty shops and home-improvement stores in Colorado and New York for details about the alleged bomb-making purchases.

Court papers say that during the summer, Zazi and three unidentified associates bought “unusually large quantities” of hydrogen peroxide and acetone – a flammable solvent found in nail-polish remover – from Denver-area beauty supply stores.

Zazi intensified his bomb-making experiments this month, cooking up substances in a Colorado hotel suite he rented on September 6-7 before driving 2500km to New York over the course of about two days.

FBI has been pretty coy about whether or not they had video surveillance on Zazi but, based on the info about the purchase of large quantities, it certainly appears that the FBI was keeping close tabs on Zazi.

Zazi, for his part, was demonstrating his ignorance in trying to cook up a batch of TATP–Triacetone Triperoxide. It has been the explosive of choice in several Al Qaeda operations over the last 16 years but it is dangerous shit to make and handle. Richard Reid reportedly had it molded into his shoes. This stuff is so volatile that explosive experts are amazed that Reid did not self-detonate with the simple act of walking through the airport concourse.

TATP, although a high explosive and fairly easy to make, is very unstable and very difficult to handle reliably. An old friend of mine who has his own range and conducts courses on building improvised explosives for engineers told me of a doctor in Louisiana who insisted on learning how to make TATP because he wanted to blow up stumps on his land. Well, seems the good doctor tried to cook up a batch in his kitchen and he ended up blowing up the back half of his house (he survived the blast).

Check out what the prosecutor claimed about Zazi:

Neff said Zazi “was in the throes of making a bomb and attempting to perfect his formulation”.

Trying ain’t doing. And TATP is not something you casually work at trying to “perfect.” That’s a recipe for killing your own ass.

There is more to this then we are being told. I believe that prosecutors and law enforcement sincerely believe that Zazi wanted to do something. But, as I have emphasized repeatedly on this blog, desire is not the same as capability.

At least this incident reminds us that despite all of the chest thumping about military prowess in the so-called “war” on terrorism, good old fashioned law enforcement and intelligence work are more important in making sure terrorists cannot hurt us.

Finally, Zazi was not making a “Weapon of Mass Destruction.” Can we cut out the horseshit on hyped language? A nuclear bomb is a weapon of Mass Destruction. A backpack bomb, while quite capable of killing people and destroying some property, is not a mass destruction weapon. Let’s be precise in describing the threats and the capabilities of those who want to harm us.