Unemployment Report: November 6, 2009
By Larry Doyle on November 8, 2009 at 7:00 PM in Economy, Sense on Cents (Larry Doyle blog), Unemployment/Jobs
(Bumped up from November 6th, the day the bad news on unemployment came out. Stay tuned for LD’s radio show at 8 p.m. ET.)
The widely anticipated November Unemployment Report covering the month of October was just released. Let’s dive right in and take a look at the numbers . . .
I. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
July: 9.5%
August: 9.4%
September: 9.7%
October: 9.8%
- November Consensus Expectation: 9.9%
- November Actual:10.2% !!!!
>> LD’s comments: this is the shocker and will get all the play.
This rate is especially damaging because the participation rate declined. That drop would help the unemployment rate, all other things being equal. The fact that the rate jumped to 10.2% is an indication that job losses jumped much more than otherwise expected with a loss 558k jobs. The underemployment rate (U-6 rate) is 17.5%!!
II. NON-FARM PAYROLL (click here for definition of this term)
July: initial loss of 467k initially revised to a loss of 443k and now revised to a loss of 463k
August: initial loss of 247k revised to a loss of 276k, further revised to -304k
September: initial loss of 216k, revised to a loss of 201k, revised to a loss of 154k
October: a loss of 263k, revised to a loss of 219k
- November Consensus Expectation: loss of 175k
- November Actual: a loss of 190k with revisions of +91k to prior months
>> LD’s comments: this month’s print is slightly worse than expected, but given the revisions the overall non-farm payroll could be spun in a somewhat positive fashion. In my opinion, there has been massaging of these numbers for many months and dare I say market participants are questioning the integrity of the reports. Recall that the birth-death model has likely overestimated job creation by upwards of 800k jobs. More of the same here? Perhaps, if not likely. Temporary workers did increase by 36k jobs.
III. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS
July: 0.0%
August: +.2% revised to +.3
September: came in at .3 but then revised to .4%
October: .1%
- November Consensus Expectation: +.1%
- November Actual:+.3%
>>LD’s comment: a positive for those working, but in conjunction with no movement in the hourly workweek this is muted.
IV. AVERAGE HOURLY WORKWEEK
July: 33.0 hours
August: 33.1 hours
September: 33.1 hours
October: 33.0 hours
- November Consensus Expectation: 33.0 hours
- November Actual:33.0 hours
>> LD’s comments: no indication here of any strength. This number rests at a low going back to 1964.
V. FURTHER COLOR
It’s all about the headline print of 10.2%. That number will spook consumers and keep Consumer Confidence under pressure. The Fed will clearly remain on hold for as extended as extended can be. I expect this report will cause Washington to talk about the need for another stimulus package.
VI. MARKET REACTION
At 8:10am:
2yr Tsy: .89%
10yr Tsy: 3.52%
S&P 500 Futures: +2
DJIA Futures: +14
U. S. Dollar Index: 75.78
At 8:50am, Post-Report:
2yr Tsy: .85%
10yr Tsy: 3.47%
S&P 500 Futures: -8
DJIA Futures: -68
U.S. Dollar Index: 75.86
Questions, comments, constructive criticisms always encouraged and appreciated. Thanks.
LD
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Larry, they will continue to spend money we don’t have until the country is either owned or invaded by China.
I’ve never seen such a bunch of amateurs running this country.
And if the healthcare and cap/trade bills pass, the economy will collapse.
That’s my two cents. Which is no longer worth two cent.
Tammy,
China will never invade America. Even before the 1st missile was launched, China would have lost $2 TRILLION dollars.
Besides, if you study Chinese history, they’ve never been interested in world domination. At the height of Chinese naval power during the Ming dynasty, China merely conducted extensive trade and never engaged in slavery.
The only hint of them using their power was that leaders of nations in their sphere of influence had to be “confirmed” by the Ming Court which is basically perfunctory.
Even Red China did not control N.Korea the way Russia controlled her client states.
No, there will be no war with the US unless the US intervenes in a domestic issue, like Taiwan. It’s far more probable that the good people of Taiwan will be sold to China.
All these lagging indicators–the unemployed–just fall farther and farther behind while all the happy green shoots are springing up all around them. Haven’t the jobless gotten the news that the recession is over? This month is so bad it’s not even “better than expected”–in fact, it’s crappier than expected! Rally time!
For sure, oowawa. In the Obama Administration’s new lexicon, crappier means “better than expected”. In lieu of actually working to make things better, That One and crew will just redefine all our problems away and then claim victory. New definitions to follow shortly.
LOL Ferd. Yep, I often read the comments over on Market Watch, which are predominantly grumpy and bearish. The site’s editorial policy however, is to spin all the economic bad news as “better than expected,” no matter how bad it actually is. In fact, commenters over there just use the initials BTE, and everybody knows what it means.
Yeah, oowawa. The more they equivocate, the less I listen. It seems as though no one can tell the unvarnished truth anymore.
Too bad that 10.2% doesn’t include those who are underemployed or have just given up. The actual number is so much higher they really don’t want to talk about it. They’re having a real problem avoiding the “D” word now. Oh what I would give to have the work horse in the White House now! Color me completely disgusted.
I did mention that in the post. He said it was 17.5
John, my comment was directed at the media, not Larry. Sorry I wasn’t clear.
Why are we even talking about the DOW and co anymore?
Those indicators are indicating nothing…They are completely obsolete ways to mesure economy trends. What they are indicating are speculation, thievery and virtual trends.
The problem the American people has is that there are no real economy indicators. Even the jobs numbers are massaged. So the American people is left to their gut feelings which can be as much a good thing than a bad one.
One of my “Main street meter” is my handyman. A pretty mellow fellow. But nowadays, he is really upset and mad. You should hear his opinion of Congress and al! What a difference a year makes. His gut feeling is that we are heading to a violent reaction from the street.
And the dow is going up… yesterday by triple digits… Who are they kidding!!!
Absolutely true. People are completely frustrated. If there is any banking or agricultural disruption, you’ll see riots.
I share his sentiments.
Vive la revolution!
Unemployment only increased by 552,000 this month. Happy happy joy joy.
That’s nothing!
It’s only 11,040 people per state. Who cares about those losers anyway?(snark)
Ah just don’t unnerstan’. I thought jobs was saved. They told us the prezident things was improving. Isn’t healthcare going to be free?
ROFL
Sorry darlin’. They lied again. Yep, Nancy added back in the penalty of 2.5 percent if you don’t carry “adequate” coverage and if you don’t pay that, she’ll charge 25K and prison.
Prison? Hey, they get free health-care. 3 squares and a roof over their heads. Not too bad of a deal these days. ?!?
I wonder:
How many of the most recently unemployed have “hope and Change” stickers on their car bumpers?
But will the media talk about this big news. Jake Tapper says Gibson will 2nite. me? I doubt it. He said “facts, facts, facts”
There you guys go jumping to conclusions once again without getting all the facts at least Obama says so, that was his line for today
These are depression-level numbers….
The new faces of day labor
U.S. citizens are joining immigrants in store parking lots
Friday, November 6, 2009
http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2009/nov/02/new-faces-day-labor/
I attended the healthcare rally yesterday in DC, also attended the 9/12 taxpayer march in DC–the tone and the atmosphere has changed, people generally were just as respectful but there’s more frustration, more anxiety than just 2 months ago. You get the feeling that BO’s theft of 757 billion with nothing to show for it and his obsession with healthcare and cap and trade is pushing people toward all out revolution. It took less than a week for 20,000 people to show up yesterday, that says alot. I talked to other parents whose 20-somethings out of college, like mine, can’t find work and they have loans to pay off. It’s devastating. My husband and I are getting the two extra rooms ready in case. My son and his wife have 3 little ones and there’s already talk of laying off. People are scared because there’s nothing on the horizon, where will the jobs come from?
“I’M MAD AS HELL, AND I’M NOT GOING TO TAKE THIS ANYMORE!” provides energy, but it isn’t a plan or a policy. Anger doesn’t cure a sick economy.
I might take the alternative approach more seriously if those advocating it would explain exactly what it is. Otherwise, I might as well be listening to Howard Beale. Near as I can tell, the alternative has to do with cutting taxes while simultaneously balancing the budget, getting capitalists to do the right thing while simultaneously deregulating their activities, and stimulating the economy without spending any public money. The crumbling infrastructure will apparently regenerate itself spontaneously. Energy and climate issues never really existed in the first place. We can have Social Security, but remain untainted by the curse of socialism. Possibly by letting Wall Street take care of it.
There are alot of jobs out there but no one wants to work them, so they remain unemployed. I work at kohl’s as a supervisor. We have people come in and quit within two weeks all the time.
I think alot of people are chosing to be unemployed because they lost their job and can’t find another one with the same benefits and pay as their last job. They refuse to work retail because they want off the holiday. There is nothing wrong with that, but it is making unemployment stay inflated because they would rather not work than be away from their families for the holidays due to a part time almost minimum wage job.
Sad thing is that after christmas, there really won’t be any job available to these people anymore as employers cut back even further.
Then, corporations are seriously understaffing their stores. This puts a huge burden on those employed. We are now having to do the job of 5 people. At a certain point you just burn out. Production suffers along with the economy.
The greed of the CEO is comming to a head, and I don’t think the current generation is going to sit back and take it this time. They are refusing to work for them.
Simple Solution: Make every employer except essential services close for at least 4 days around christmas and force employers to give at least 2 weeks of vaction automatically when hired. You would see employment sky rocket.
Here comes another one of my repeats: lower wages are part of Keynesian theory; Krugman never talks about that. I’m not sure about investment bankers getting humongous bonuses via the public trough, maybe Paulson/Geither invented that part or is that Soros’ mixed economy? Even Buffett issued a statement awhile back urdging Obama to fix the economy first, however that didn’t really resonate like making things “fairer” did. Most of the people on this site poo pood all of Ron Paul’s comments & prefered Hillary’s model instead. Well you got it, now how do you like it?
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The unemployment picture is far worse than 17.5%, U6. Many estimates from
credible institutions have typically been 20-25%. When the uncounted unemployed are calculated in. Tent cities are springing up all over the US.
The news has been censored by the media. A solid 13% of the total US population
is receiving food stamps. That number is verification of a significant percentage
of the population is firmly in poverty. Many more uncounted for various reasons.
Food bank shelves are empty and soup kitchens in full swing. US is staring down the barrel of nationwide mass poverty. The government propaganda machine
continues to turn out news that the US is in a recovery. US agencies only using statistics to show a good economy. While in fact the US is operating under
capacity and its workforce is under utilized. These bankrupt industries and people have been written off like assets on an accounting sheet. Statistical agencies do not want to know about them after six months.