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Mum’s the Word

shhhhThe movie Goodfellas provides a wealth of material for comparative analysis of the markets. The “insider activity,” the “fooling around,” “the payoffs,” and “the gambling” all make for great drama on the screen. Truth be told, one does not have to look all that hard to find striking similarities to certain activities in the world of Wall Street, and for that matter, Washington.

One of my favorite scenes in the movie occurs after the boys make the big heist. Immediately, the word is put out to keep your mouths shut and no indications of newfound wealth.

Back to reality. In terms of “putting the fix” into the world of our major money center banks, isn’t the relaxation of the mark-to- market the “newfound wealth”? Isn’t the “keep your mouths shut” the equivalent of the Treasury telling the banks not to comment on results of the Bank Stress Test? Speaking of the Bank Stress Tests, Bloomberg reports:

The U.S. Federal Reserve has told Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. and other banks to keep mum on the results of “stress tests” that will gauge their ability to weather the recession, people familiar with the matter said.

The Fed wants to ensure that the report cards don’t leak during earnings conference calls scheduled for this month. Such a scenario might push stock prices lower for banks perceived as weak and interfere with the government’s plan to release the results in an orderly fashion later this month.

Clearly the Fed and Treasury are trying to keep their “boys” quiet and lay low while the real regulators of the market, that being honest investors, are walking the beat.

If any of the boys talk, then the leaders of the family won’t be able to coordinate the stories and hoodwink the public.

Whatever happened to, “as long as you tell the truth, you don’t have to worry about having a bad memory”?

It seems we are operating much more in the realm of, “well, I can tell you but . . . ”

The Goodfellas: Henry Hill, Jimmy Conway, Paul Cicero, and Tommy DeVito

The Goodfellas: Henry Hill, Jimmy Conway, Paul Cicero, and Tommy DeVito

Henry . . . Jimmy . . . Paulie . . . Tommy . . .

Please let me know who in our government and world of finance are most appropriate to play each of these individuals? Let’s have some fun.

  • diane

    http://www.poorrichardsalmanac.biz
    HAPPY EASTER EVERYONE!
    “sunday’s comin!”
    DIANE AND FAMILY!

  • viking

    LD, great post!! Here’s my casting picks:

    Timmy Geithner = Henry Hill; young wanna-be, thrilled to hustle and be part of the club.

    Hank Paulson = Jimmy Conway; knows the score and carefully picks his way through the landscape.

    Ben Bernanke = Paul Cicero; cool, calm and ruthless, calls the shots.

    Dick Fuld = Tommy DeVito; obnoxious, longstanding member no one ever liked, deleted when the opportunity arose.

  • oowawa

    One of my favorite scenes in the movie occurs after the boys make the big heist. Immediately, the word is put out to keep your mouths shut and no indications of newfound wealth

    Well Larry, we saw just the opposite this past week when Wells Fargo crowed about their “newfound wealth” and started a big rally in the stock market. I expect that in the coming week other banks are going to be flaunting their “newfound wealth” (largely due to “mark-to-market” rule changes), and the stock market will once again rally. Maybe this change in accounting rules is just a swell idea, and if we continue to misrepresent assets, everyone will live happily ever after. Or will this latest “bubble” inevitably burst? Will there be a day of reckoning? Will the splendid golden chariot eventually turn back into a pumpkin?

    I’ll confess to being “financially naive,” but it seems to me that in the present market conditions, anyone who doesn’t confess to being somewhat befuddled is also being “financially naive.” It’s a confusing mess! You’ve been really good about answering questions, Larry. What’s going to happen?

  • Patrick Henry

    Now…If we can just get the Treasury Department and Senator Dodd On Line..It might work..but no “Code of Silence” is possible…
    .They have so many Informers and lose Cannons around this Place its like a Plumber fixing a leak with “SILLY PUTTY…”

    The Media always knows who the real “Good Fellas” are…

    Dodd…Geithner..Biden..and “deep throat Barney”

  • Tricia Spiegel

    Good stuff to know, as usual Larry. Thanks!

  • Portia Elizabeth

    The thing that gets me is those guys in the movie knew they were thugs and criminals. Our govt. thinks they’re here to help us. At least I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt on that.

  • NoBamaNoWay

    you are exactly correct; the similarities between our government / major segments of industry to organized crime are undeniable. the average people are just suckers to be taken by their scams and extortion.

    the particular issue of keeping these stress tests secret again gets to the fact the the people running america still refuse to believe that there is anything seriously wrong with our economy; their position is that it is all a matter of perception.

  • http://noquarter foxyladi14

    when i see those people in Washington.doing
    the things they are doing.it makes me wonder??
    now if I didn’t pay my taxes I would be ina buncha
    trouble.but they get high paying positions.what the???

  • Chris Martin

    If everything is so peachy, why the forced silence? This worries me.

    • candymarl

      Agreed.

  • joanna0902
    • candymarl

      Thank you for the link. It brought tears to my eyes.

  • choo choo magoo

    from lrft to right – geithner, rubin, summers, paulson

  • choo choo magoo

    from left to right – geithner, rubin, summers, paulson

  • apishapa

    What I don’t get is why the Fed is telling the banks to keep quiet about the results of the stress tests. I know nothing about this kind of stuff. Obvioous by the state of by own finances.

    But,I have read cozen’s of articles stating that the “stress tests” were designed so that none of the banks will have a failing grade. The bans designed the tests and use their own obviously faulty risk analysis to perform the tests and there are about two reviewers per bank (apparently not near enough). So why can’t the banks run aaround going “Yippee! We passed! Give us we’re solvent! Give us nmore money!”?

    This whole exercise is just stupid. If the banks prove they can wweather the storm, great, give me back my grandchildren’s taxes. If they can’t, screw ‘em, don’t give those idioits any more of my grandson’s tax money. Close them down.

    A crooked banker already stole my house, I am sick of hearing how my taxes need to save him. My money should not be used to save any banker. I’ve given enough. And I didn’t get one penny of help.