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The Latest Pennsylvania Poll [Update: New Indiana Poll]

By SusanUnPC on April 14, 2008 at 10:44 AM in Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Indiana, Pennsylvania

INDIANA POLL | 1:50 p.m. PST UPDATE: CLINTON 55% TO OBAMA 39% — Indiana Men, Democrats, & Young Voters Move Away From Obama …
________________________________________

Pennsylvania
Likely Democratic
Primary Voters		 Mar
7-8		 Mar
26-27		 Apr
5-6		 Apr
11-13
Clinton 52% 51% 45% 57%
Obama 41% 39% 45% 37%
Someone else 1% 2% 4% 2%
Undecided 6% 8% 6% 4%


Up at American Research Group.

You can view additional results from earlier in the primary season.

  • http://bluelyon.blogspot.com carissa

    Guess Pennsylvanians don’t like being called a bunch of rubes, eh?

    • jes

      I don’t think these polls reflect the “bitter” comment. That should show up in two to three days because they usually take a three-day average.

      It does show them tied a week ago, which is interesting.

      • jes

        I hope Hillary does have a double-digit blowout. That would be so cool and really send a strong message.

  • Kevin

    ARG? ARG is the source you pick? Seriously, again – just because they have the numbers you like the most doesn’t mean in the long run it’s going to support your premise.

    There are more reputable and nonpartisan polls you could cite that still have Hillary leading. Why not cite them… instead of these guys?

    As AP put it years ago:

    “The New Hampshire-based American Research Group’s tracking poll ended up buried deepest in the snow bank: They had Bush winning by two the day before the primary, merely 20 points off the mark. On the Democratic side, the losing pollster at least got the winner right: The Quinnipiac poll predicted Gore would win by 17 percentage points, but he actually won by four.

    It was the second debacle for ARG in as many New Hampshire Republican primaries. The day before the 1996 contest, ARG’s Dick Bennett told the Union Leader, “It looks like Dole’s going to win,” based on the Kansan’s seven point advantage in their tracking poll. He didn’t, losing to Pat Buchanan by a single percentage point.”

    • http://bluelyon.blogspot.com carissa

      Wow, you’re going back pretty far in time. Take a look at the Ohio Dem Primary poll of this year. Numbers look pretty accurate, given the margin of error (4%).

    • stodghie

      when in doubt, yell, scream, whine and shout! all that hubris won’t change the fact that barry made a major boo boo.

      the arrogance and bitter attitude by barry and his allies ie rev wrong, dilutes from some of the points they might make that have merit. sure the average worker is angry and frustrated, but insulting them about it is not good politics. the american foreign policy has been wrong a number of times, but pray tell how does insulting americans killed in 9/11 help change it.

    • jwrjr

      If the poll said that BO was winning, Kevin would be proclaiming the accuracy of ARG to everybody within hearing distance.

      • Kevin

        wrong again – if they said he was winning I’d still point out that ARG is less than reliable.

        • jwrjr

          Wrong again? ‘Again’ requires that it happened at some previous time. Unless you can document that, you are revealed as just another lying troll.

    • beebop

      when you can’t brow beat the voting public, by all means shoot everyone else.

    • raymo

      No one should ever cite a poll that is not flattering to The Precious! Shame on you!

      It’s a poll.Hello? If you want fanboy fawning and unflattering photos of Hillary Clinton, please visit TPM, currently being presided over by the man who kidapped Josh Marshall. Or you can always visit the Daily Cheeto for some crispy, crunchy Hillary hate.

    • Percy

      It doesn’t matter how this poll stacks against other polls …. what it interesting is the trend of any one polling source. And if anything, the trend is interesting. At it is not the first time I have heard that while the polls tightened the gap widened again PRIOR to the recent SF gaffe. This polls shows that as well.

      Also interesting to note …. this is the ONLY poll out of a variety of them shown on Real Clear Politics that ever had the tie candidates at a tie. All others had Clinton ahead. So how much does this poll lean toward Hillary.

      We all know that polls vary….and this is ARG is one view. Don’t knock it just because it is not what you obviously want to see… just take it in stride.

      However, your style is alot like your candidate.

      http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

      • http://hyper-educated-uppity-woman.blogspot.com Uppity

        I follow Realclearpolitics every day. Their top number is the average of all the pollsters’ results. And in case you haven’t noticed, their last average was April 10.If you haven’t notice, well I have. Let’s talk in a few days when the polls after Obama opened his pie hole register.

    • Jeff

      Thanks Kevin. I wonder how many of the folks here were praising “What’s The Matter With Kansas” just a couple short years ago.

    • TeresaINPa

      Would you prefer SUSA? They also have Clinton up by huge numbers.

      No, you would prefer bloomberg which has been less dependable that ARG.

  • secularhumanizinevoluter

    I am “bitterly
    opposed to folks who “cling to” the notion that poll numbers they don’t like are wrong!

  • Mr.Murder

    This Misogyny campaign is Obama’s way of letting MISOGYOBGYN’s share their love with their patients. No wonder his health care plan is getting a thumbs down in comparison to hers.

  • Kefa

    I will wait for SUSA to post their poll but I do think the trend is in Clinton’s favor in Pa as the other states that are coming up. This blunder will follow Obama like the plague. I am surprised Edwards is silent even though Mrs. Edwards spoke up.

    • fran

      SUSA poll for Indiana has HRC up by 20!

  • Nag

    Here’s the latest from Rassmussen:

    http://tinyurl.com/69yp8f

    56% Disagree with Obama’s Comments on Small Town America

    Basically, liberals mostly agree, middle disagree more, conservatives mostly disagree with Obama’s statement on small town Pa/America. In other words, probably not a huge problem for him in the primary, but in the GE, WATCH OUT!!! Obama is unelectable. John McCain came out aiming for Obama’s jugular this morning on CNN. Obama is an elitist.

    • Salo

      Obama’s comments are general election poison.

      They may help him in the primary with left wing voters as it turns out—but ultimately they are worth about 4% in the general.

    • bert

      “probably not a huge problem for
      him in the primary,”

      Yep. New Dem party slogan: Nominating the Unelectable Since 1840.

  • sjl106

    this poll falls in line with the Survey USA poll that showed Hillary up 18% a few days ago. (Survey USA has been the only accurate poll out there)

  • Mel

    It isn’t over till it is over, and one poll is not worth a thing, only thing that is, is keeping the attacks on Obama demand answers for everything and keep them on hard, because his usual retalliation is to blame it on Clinton, and this time don’t let his slimy tactics work!

    This time it is about YOU Obama and ONLY you!

  • Janis

    AND DON’T FORGET FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN PEOPLE. Without them, this election is a farce, and we get stuckwith Senator Pants-on-Fire as a nominee.

  • Prabhata

    ARG is not a good pollster, but it shows a trend that goes against BO

  • Blue State Girl

    ARG is not one of the more reputable pollsters. Last week it was tied, and this week Clinton is 20 points ahead? That’s a pretty wild swing.

    And Susquehanna Poll is showing a close race: Clinton 40, Obama 37, Undecided 23.

  • Paul

    Do you consider Obama’s remarks as “condescending” and “out of touch”?

    http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=2082

    Will Obama Pay for ‘Bitter’ Flap comment?

    Post your vote
    http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=2093

    Please go vote on his website… http://www.billoreilly.com/site
    Bill O’Reilly has a question
    Which gaffe was worse?
    Hillary on Bosnia
    Barack and Rev. Wright

    • http://hyper-educated-uppity-woman.blogspot.com Uppity

      Paul those are NOT scientific polls. Gobbledygoop. Sorry.

      Are you getting pennies for clicks or something? Geeze!

  • Dawnelle

    WOW! I just overheard the 20 pt spread on FAUX news and couldn’t believe it so had to rush here to see!

    SURE enough!

    FAUX is scaring me silly with their fair and balanced ploy lately!

    They must stop confusing me. LOL

    I am quite the fan of Juan Williams these daze!

    • http://hyper-educated-uppity-woman.blogspot.com Uppity

      FAUX is scaring me silly with their fair and balanced ploy lately!

      They have nothing else to cover. McCain is a bore.

  • Blame

    A 20 point swing in 6 days? Not likely. Wait for something more reliable than ARG.

    • bert

      Could have been that big media buy. Obama’s name was out there. Could be reflecting that only. Hard to tell until you read the fine print of the poll.

    • Mary

      SUSA is the most “reliable,” dear.

      And they show Clinton up 18 pts.

      Why would 20 be any surprise?

  • http://hyper-educated-uppity-woman.blogspot.com Uppity

    I guess Indiana is pissed off too.

    Put a fork in him.

    Ok let’s recap, who has Arrogant Arugula Man Alienated as of today?

    1. Italians
    2. Jews
    3. Many white women over 40
    4. ALL white women over 50
    5. All other Typical White People
    6. NRA, for handing onto their guns
    7. Small town bitter people who are either religious and/or have guns

    Did I miss anyone? Ah well, it’s still early.

  • Mel

    SurveyUSA is just listing now, the closet and most accurate of all polls this far this season
    April 13th
    Indiana Clinton 55 Obama 39

    Rasmussen April 13th
    WV Clinton 55 Obama 27

  • bob h

    How does Vice President Obama sound to you, Barack?

  • IndayHill

    Maybe in a few days,Obama will do his rhetoric prowess once again & this time, I pray, his shallow rhetorics will not convince us of ” what he really meant” in his “bitter”revelation & tell us once again (like a broken record) of his “sorry” family life. Remember when he gave his speech regarding his pastor’s “damming America?” Instead of disowning his pastor of 20 years, he just “sugar-coated ” the controversy & the people, led by the pundits, had praises for his “speech of the century” (Chris Matthew).Will the hard working Americans, of the small towns of my beloved country, trust this presidential candidate, who, make us the joke & DEMEAN US amongst his rich buddies?????? NO!!
    VOTE HILLARY FOR PRESIDENT!!!!

  • Ron from S.F.

    Has the annointed one stumbled on the way to his coronation? Or is he trying the see how many people he can insult? Someone on his campaign staff should invest in a copy of Dale Carnegie’s book. How to win friends and Influence People. Before more delegates and voters hear him.