Wrong Way Bush
By Larry Johnson on May 26, 2006 at 12:56 PM in Current Affairs
by
Larry C Johnson
Let’s give credit where
credit is due. George W. Bush finally admitted
some mistakes last night. For instance,
he noted that tough talk, such as challenging the Iraqi insurgents with the
retort, “bring ‘em on”, sent the wrong signal and was counterproductive. The road to recovery, whether from addiction
or failed policy, starts with admitting one has a problem. It is time for the President to do more than
admit rhetorical mistakes. It is time to
call a halt to our mistaken policy in Iraq.
It is becoming increasingly
clear that when it comes to Iraq, President George W. Bush is the Wrong Way Riegels of
the 21st Century. Wrong Way Riegels was a football player made
infamous for running the wrong way and scoring a safety for the opposing team. During the 1929 Rose bowl game between
Georgia Tech and California, Riegels, the center of the California Bears,
grabbed a fumble, was hit and spun around, and proceeded to run 64 yards to the
wrong end zone. Riegels’ mistake gave
the championship to Georgia Tech.
Like Riegels, George Bush is
an amiable, enthusiastic player. Unlike
Riegels, however, Bush’s actions have weakened the military, damaged our nation’s
prestige, and unleashed forces in the Middle East that pose
long term threats to the United States. Let’s face
it; Bush has scored a touchdown for Iran, our nemesis.
As we enter Memorial Day weekend it is time to take stock of
the progress, or lack of progress, in bringing peace to Iraq. The “new” Government is one in name
only. The Iraqi factions have failed to
agree on who will control the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of the
Interior. While Iraq politicians squabble, Iraqis with close ties to Iran are moving forward. Moqtada al Sadr, for
example, is working quietly behind the scenes to infiltrate and seize de facto
control of the police, the intelligence services, and the military. It appears he has made significant progress
in this regard.
The bottomline, Iran is consolidating control of critical parts of Iraq through its surrogate, Moqtada al Sadr. The civil war now underway consists largely of surreptitious group
murders and retaliatory bombings. Since
January of this year, the number of daily attacks has surged from 72 a day to
135 per day. Most of this violence is
directed against civilians—Shia and Sunni. Yet, U.S. soldiers continue to pay a costly, bitter price. Our men and women are being killed at a rate
approaching three per day. The wounded
are triple that.
Baghdad remains
without a consistent supply of electricity, gasoline, and potable water. Electricity production, for example, hovers
between two to six hours per day. Friends who have recently returned from Iraq tell me that much of the disruption in the electricity and oil pipelines is
actually caused by the Iraqis assigned to repair these systems. In other words, the local Iraqis with a vested financial
interest in repairing these systems are also sabotaging them—think of it as a
guaranteed jobs program.
There are two significant dangers for the United States based on our current operations tempo
(ops tempo) and force deployment—1) we are degrading the quality of the force,
and 2) we are leaving the force vulnerable to a disruption of the logistics
supply line if we decide to attack Iran.
The decline of the quality of the U.S.military—the Army, the Marines, and the Navy—is a middle to long term
problem. An officer who works in
military intelligence recently sent me the following after reading the email
exchange between Joe Galloway and DOD press spokesman, Larry Dirita (note, the
term “O-3” refers to a Navy Lieutenant or a Captain in the Army and Marines; an
“0-4” is either a Lieutenant Commander or Major.)
Through the scuttlebutt of my buddies in the community, a
military intelligence unit alone hemorrhaged 27 out of 35 O-3s. The community
is not large enough for losses like that and thus those of up for promotion
soon should not be overly proud they made it to O-4; it is nearly automatic now.
The promotion rate is at 80% plus or minus a few points. I respect what Joe
Galloway wrote recently. It is unfortunate that the sycophants have the run of
the place in the OSD.
These trends mean that we will lose nearly a quarter of our
potential O-4’s before they have even been boarded. Military and civilian leaders are trying to
solve this personnel loss by offering more money for folks to stay in and
lowering standards for those both recruited and promoted.
The United States ability to stay the course in Iraq is threatened by a fragile re-supply line, which runs from Kuwait north to Baghdad. This road runs thru the heart of Shia
controlled territory. Everything we need
to keep our Army fed and fueled comes up that road.
We face a dilemma if we decide to attack the neighboring
country of Iran because of its nuclear ambitions. Iran is not a passive observer. Iran is providing extensive, covert support to Shia militia in Iraq. U.S. military planners must assume that it is highly likely that insurgents backed
by Iran will
attack and cut the re-supply line. Truck
convoys will be captured and destroyed. Re-opening these roads would require significant military ground
forces—forces that are not in the area and probably could not be deployed in any
significant numbers for at least several weeks, if not months.
Our options in Iraq are shrinking with each passing day. The
Shia forces are slowly consolidating their power. These are not secular Shia. They are religious fundamentalists bent on
imposing their vision of sharia on Iraq. The secular Iraqis—Shia and Sunni alike—are
fleeing Iraq. This brain drain further undermines the
ability of Iraq to form an effective, competent Government.
The Shia backed by Iran are biding their time and moving methodically forward. The challenge for the United States will be to decide what level of
support to provide to this emerging government. To the extent we are perceived as facilitating or supporting the Shia
consolidation of power, we will also be perceived as an enemy of the
Sunnis. While the Sunnis are a minority
within Iraq,
they have powerful ties to Sunnis in neighboring countries and will retain a
robust ability to conduct insurgent operations against Shias (and their allies)
for the foreseeable future.
Memorial Day 2004 was commemorated when almost 1100 American
soldiers and sailors had died in Iraq. Two years later the number is rapidly
approaching 2600. It is time for the
President and the Congress to get serious about how long we will continue to
sacrifice our young men and women in a cause that will ultimately strengthen Iran’s
control of critical Middle East oil reserves. That, in my view, is not a policy worth dying
for.






















