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Wrong Way Bush

by
Larry C Johnson

 

Let’s give credit where
credit is due. George W. Bush finally admitted
some mistakes last night. For instance,
he noted that tough talk, such as challenging the Iraqi insurgents with the
retort, “bring ‘em on”, sent the wrong signal and was counterproductive. The road to recovery, whether from addiction
or failed policy, starts with admitting one has a problem.  It is time for the President to do more than
admit rhetorical mistakes. It is time to
call a halt to our mistaken policy in Iraq.

It is becoming increasingly
clear that when it comes to Iraq, President George W. Bush is the Wrong Way Riegels of
the 21st Century. Wrong Way Riegels was a football player made
infamous for running the wrong way and scoring a safety for the opposing team. During the 1929 Rose bowl game between
Georgia Tech and California, Riegels, the center of the California Bears,
grabbed a fumble, was hit and spun around, and proceeded to run 64 yards to the
wrong end zone. Riegels’ mistake gave
the championship to Georgia Tech. 

Like Riegels, George Bush is
an amiable, enthusiastic player. Unlike
Riegels, however, Bush’s actions have weakened the military, damaged our nation’s
prestige, and unleashed forces in the Middle East that pose
long term threats to the United States. Let’s face
it; Bush has scored a touchdown for Iran, our nemesis.

As we enter Memorial Day weekend it is time to take stock of
the progress, or lack of progress, in bringing peace to Iraq. The “new” Government is one in name
only. The Iraqi factions have failed to
agree on who will control the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of the
Interior. While Iraq  politicians squabble, Iraqis with close ties to Iran are moving forward. Moqtada al Sadr, for
example, is working quietly behind the scenes to infiltrate and seize de facto
control of the police, the intelligence services, and the military. It appears he has made significant progress
in this regard.

The bottomline, Iran is consolidating control of critical parts of Iraq through its surrogate, Moqtada al Sadr. The civil war now underway consists largely of surreptitious group
murders and retaliatory bombings. Since
January of this year, the number of daily attacks has surged from 72 a day to
135 per day. Most of this violence is
directed against civilians—Shia and Sunni. Yet, U.S. soldiers continue to pay a costly, bitter price. Our men and women are being killed at a rate
approaching three per day. The wounded
are triple that.

Baghdad remains
without a consistent supply of electricity, gasoline, and potable water. Electricity production, for example, hovers
between two to six hours per day. Friends who have recently returned from Iraq tell me that much of the disruption in the electricity and oil pipelines is
actually caused by the Iraqis assigned to repair these systems. In other words, the local Iraqis with a vested financial
interest in repairing these systems are also sabotaging them—think of it as a
guaranteed jobs program.

There are two significant dangers for the United States based on our current operations tempo
(ops tempo) and force deployment—1) we are degrading the quality of the force,
and 2) we are leaving the force vulnerable to a disruption of the logistics
supply line if we decide to attack Iran.

The decline of the quality of the U.S.military—the Army, the Marines, and the Navy—is a middle to long term
problem. An officer who works in
military intelligence recently sent me the following after reading the email
exchange between Joe Galloway and DOD press spokesman, Larry Dirita (note, the
term “O-3” refers to a Navy Lieutenant or a Captain in the Army and Marines; an
“0-4” is either a Lieutenant Commander or Major.)

Through the scuttlebutt of my buddies in the community, a
military intelligence unit alone hemorrhaged 27 out of 35 O-3s. The community
is not large enough for losses like that and thus those of up for promotion
soon should not be overly proud they made it to O-4; it is nearly automatic now.
The promotion rate is at 80% plus or minus a few points. I respect what Joe
Galloway wrote recently. It is unfortunate that the sycophants have the run of
the place in the OSD.

 These trends mean that we will lose nearly a quarter of our
potential O-4’s before they have even been boarded. Military and civilian leaders are trying to
solve this personnel loss by offering more money for folks to stay in and
lowering standards for those both recruited and promoted.

The United States ability to stay the course in Iraq is threatened by a fragile re-supply line, which runs from Kuwait north to Baghdad. This road runs thru the heart of Shia
controlled  territory.  Everything we need
to keep our Army fed and fueled comes up that road.

We face a dilemma if we decide to attack the neighboring
country of Iran because of its nuclear ambitions.  Iran is not a passive observer.  Iran is providing extensive, covert support to Shia militia in Iraq.  U.S. military planners must assume that it is highly likely that insurgents backed
by Iran will
attack and cut the re-supply line. Truck
convoys will be captured and destroyed. Re-opening these roads would require significant military ground
forces—forces that are not in the area and probably could not be deployed in any
significant numbers for at least several weeks, if not months.

Our options in Iraq are shrinking with each passing day. The
Shia forces are slowly consolidating their power. These are not secular Shia. They are religious fundamentalists bent on
imposing their vision of sharia on Iraq. The secular Iraqis—Shia and Sunni alike—are
fleeing Iraq. This brain drain further undermines the
ability of Iraq to form an effective, competent Government.

The Shia backed by Iran are biding their time and moving methodically forward. The challenge for the United States will be to decide what level of
support to provide to this emerging government. To the extent we are perceived as facilitating or supporting the Shia
consolidation of power, we will also be perceived as an enemy of the
Sunnis. While the Sunnis are a minority
within Iraq,
they have powerful ties to Sunnis in neighboring countries and will retain a
robust ability to conduct insurgent operations against Shias (and their allies)
for the foreseeable future.

Memorial Day 2004 was commemorated when almost 1100 American
soldiers and sailors had died in Iraq. Two years later the number is rapidly
approaching 2600. It is time for the
President and the Congress to get serious about how long we will continue to
sacrifice our young men and women in a cause that will ultimately strengthen Iran’s
control of critical Middle East oil reserves. That, in my view, is not a policy worth dying
for.

  • http://www.seixon.com Seixon

    So pulling out will give Iran less control of Iraq? Sorry, I’m not following the logic, Larry. It seems as if what you are saying is true, then we should definitely stay in Iraq.

    You know, unless you don’t give a damn about the Iraqis and would rather say “later suckers” and let Iran have their way.

    So what are you trying to say exactly?

  • Larry Johnson

    Pity poor Seixon. Deficient in logic and other higher mental processes. Has trouble understanding English. So, let’s try big letters. OUR PRESENCE IN IRAQ IS HELPING IRAN CONSOLIDATE ITS POWER. IF WE WITHDRAW FROM IRAQ WE ARE IN A BETTER POSITION TO TAKE ACTIONS TO ISOLATE IRAN.

    Seixon, I’m sure your parents wept over the fact that they’ve spent lots of money on your college education and you remain incapable of higher thinking.

  • Patrick henry

    Larry…I can see Why you Got COMMENDATIONS..

    This an Excellent and ACCURATE..ANALYSIS..

    of the CURRENT SITUATION..

    Exactly WHAT should be Said..

    And Would be said..if you were writting it at the AGENCY..

    Or For US..

    Because Our Elected and appointed Officials..Dont Always Like to Hear..or READ..

    THE TRUTH..

    So…They create.. THIER OWN..

    “ALTERNATIVE REALITYS..”

    We`ALL know by Now ..

    HOW That HAPPENS..

  • Chris

    An O-3 is a Captain and an O-4 is a major in the Army and whatever the equavalent is in the Navy.

  • Patrick Henry

    Speaking of Creating Alternative Realitys..

    I Heard there was A Gunshot at the Raybourn Building Today..

    Make that “SHOTGUN”..Shot..

    Thats where Mr. Cheney keeps his Car..

    Just in Case He has to Perform His Dutys In Congress…or Maybe just because He Likes Talking to Congressmen..

    Anyhow…Thats why no one ever see’s him…Except when he go’s Hunting..

    I think he was Trying to make a Get’A'Way…got His Gun out of the Trunk and Shot Himself in the FOOT..

    So far…It Looks Like it could be another “Cover`UP” to me..

    Oh Well..The TRUTH will Come Out..

    It ALWAYS Does..

  • Harry

    Sorry, Larry, Bush said that he was mis-interpreted, not that he was wrong, he did notadmit any mistakes yet, just keep counting 2500 dead GI’s.

  • Patrick Henry

    Yep…He Did Say he was Misunderstood..

    Needs to “Refine His Speech”..

    Another Version of “Mission Impossible”..

    did you see how Hard it was For him to “Confess” his “Mistake’

    All TWO of them..

    Thats because He wouldn’t Be able to Carry out the Complete Written RECORD..

    You know the Size of the paper Work in DC..

    Yep..he sure looked “Pained” to Me..Fidgeted….Blinked His Eyes..(several Times)

    Looked toward heaven..(No Help There)

    Swallowed Hard..

    and “Admitted His Mistakes..”…

    And Got a Few pats the back..

    “Good BOY George…Good BOY..”

  • GSD

    Apparently those cave dwelling insurgents, the savage head choppers in Iraq somehow misunderstood the President when he said” Bring it on.” He was talking about more “rubber turkeys” that he wanted to “bring on” to the troops for photo-ops.

    It was in no way meant as a macho, thumb in the eye by a superior military power to a group of militants that were seen as “dead enders”, “suiciders” and “Saddamists”.

    -GSD

  • Leslie

    2600 dead GIs, hundreds more dead US civilians working for Halliburton, Bechtel, et al in Iraq, and hundreds of thousands of innocent Iraqi civilians killed and counting. Civil war in Iraq that worsens daily and threatens the region, an administration that refuses to engage Iran diplomatically and instead talks about preemptive nuclear strikes against an as yet nonexistent Iranian nuclear threat, which could lead to a catastrophic war, a worsening situation in forgotten Afghanistan, Osama still free to make videotapes while the NSA spies on average Americans, the administration’s similar refusal to engage North Korea in direct talks, the abandonment of international non-proliferation standards, a broken military, a broken CIA, everyday new threats to the Constitution, free speech and the rule of law….I could go on.

  • Sailor Sam

    In a normal universe, one might reasonably expect that ascent to the highest office of a republic would naturally entail a little time in one crucible or another – military service, serious public sector work, positions attained and held through merit.

    Generally, during this learning process one learns certain commmunication skills. The willingness to appear in public and make an ass of oneself is not necessarily a major component of this.

    I did NOT hear GWB say anything like, “My mouth not only shot America in the foot, it blew the sucker clean off up to the knee. Sorry ’bout that.”

    One can be folksy and plain spoken without appearing to be a contestant on THE GONG SHOW. (see: HARRY S. TRUMAN).

    Gerald Ford was neither deft nor graceful, but his command of the language was sufficient. HIS occasional malapropisms were offset by what was plain eveidence of a better-than-average intellect. Remember that Ford not only coached at Yale, he was also a Yale Law graduate.

    Overall, each time I see The Decider on camera I expect him to either tell an inapproprate joke or drool.

    Yesterday’s peformance was about the usual sub-par (for the Class President of a small high school) display.

    I will NEVER think that Our Dear Leader is as cute, wise, or witty as HE thinks he is…

  • http://spaces.msn.com/mpumpky/PersonalSpace.aspx?_c02_owner=1 PrchrLady

    Gag, Barf, whatever. I wouldn’t believe anything that came out of the deciders mouth. He, and his cohorts are all evil. I forced myself to watch the first part of the photo op, but after listening to about 5 minutes of this Iraq BS that speawed from the liar’s mouth, I was forced to move on…

    As a Military Brat, Military Mother, and former VA Nurse, I am appalled at the callousness of this administration toward the people who serve. I have seen first hand the horrors of war, and the struggles afterward for those that serve. They are NOT getting the help that they deserve and need. I caught a short span of Rumsfield on Larry King. Not only do I want to hear more than Rummy’s words about being proud of those that serve,but I want him to define what that means. Does it mean giving them the tools, medicine, jobs, and other support that they need? I don’t think they understand what it means to really be a part of the military (or CIA, or FBI, or other government service)during this dark time in our history. Nor what it means to be a ‘public servant’.

    It is a shame that so many career military and civilian govt workers have been forced out of service, through a variety of means. When all the officers are gone, who will stand with my sons and daughters as they are being sent to battlefields and regions far from our shores? I know I will be glad when my children are no longer a part of this countries military. So far, those that have tried to leave have been stopped. This should not happen either, and I think that if the draft had never ended, my family would not daily face the struggles that they do. Sad, so sad, but if the draft were still around, this war would have been over by now. Rich folks don’t need the military to break free from the chains of poverty. Too many in power are there with silver spoons in thier hands. They should try the ‘middle class’ struggle for awhile. Then some changes would come thru…

    Sorry for the rant, still have lots of anger down deep. I wonder if the bleeding will ever stop??? The hope I have is that there are some strong souls out there who will keep the Truth out there. Larry, and all of you here. Thanks for all you have done, in service to this Nation. May you all Live Long and Prosper. Happy Memorial Day. I will never forget. Marlene

  • http://spaces.msn.com/mpumpky/PersonalSpace.aspx?_c02_owner=1 PrchrLady

    Forgive me for posting twice in a row…but I forgot to add the link to the article that I read just before Larry’s, that set me off… M

    http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3469

  • Retired

    Interesting analysis. As one who has actually worked with Rumsfeld up close, I believe that he didn’t get it when I first met him in Beirut in 1983, and, from what I can see, he still doesn’t get it.
    However, as satisfying as it might be to unload on the President and his key men and women with emotion-filled ad hominem attacks, I think that the seriousness of our current situation is beyond that. All of us need to do some clear, unemotional thinking and contribute to the process of moving our country in the right direction in whatever ways we can. For me, this means foregoing some current income to bring my skills to bear helping a small company that I think makes an important contribution to our country’s effort to understand and communicate effectively with others. It also means participating in the congressional campaign of a combat vet that I believe represents just the type of clear eyed wisdom that is so important in the House right now.
    When I retired, I was hoping to be able to kick back in the sun and watch the market go up and the dividends pour in. But I guess that plan is moot.

  • Altruist

    Bush “apologizing” is all theatre. Look at this report below from last night’s Countdown and the subsequent picture of Bush smirking. It’s disgusting. These guy played the American people for fools to enable a huge wealth transfer for the rich. And we let them. They’re laughing at us.

    http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/may2006/270506bushsmirked.htm

  • colorado bob

    I did not watch Bush last night, or the night he made his immigration speech. It’s not about doing what’s best for the country, it’s about that 29% JAR of Bush’s.

    The thing Mr. Seixon doesn’t grasp is that the invasion of Iraq, placed our fate in the hands of Muqtada al Sadar. He’s one of those unintented things that wars produce. If we had sent 500,000 troops, we could have arrested him when he was bumping off his rival clerics. We could have secured the ammo dumps were all those 155 artillery rounds came from. I’ll stop with this list it’s too long to make now.

    Juan Cole caught something in that Q&A last night. Bush said Casey wanted some more troops. CNN’s Jamie McIntyer followed up on that little remark. We just sent 1,500 more troops to Baghdad. Now if you read Juan Cole, as I do, you’ll know that western Baghdad is where all those folks from Fallujah went. That would be a large part of 250,000 people.

    If you’ve really paid close attention, you read the NYT’s three part series this week on the sham that the whole police training effort has been. It got zero attention by other outlets.

    If you read Knight Ridder, you’d know that the Kurds are sitting around Kirkuk in Iraqi army uniforms waiting to annex that city into Greater Kurdistan.

    And to follow-up on Larry’s post, the area from the Kuwait border to Baghdad is called the “Shia Heartland”, our troops will be calling it “Indian Country” if they have to run convoy’s through it much longer.

  • colorado bob

    One more thing, That story starting to spill-out about the massacre in Haditha. I got 5 bucks that says that Master Sargent was on his 3rd deployment to Iraq.

    It does excuse it, but it explains it. If you watch the lists of the dead on the Newshour, or ABC’s This Week, as I have, you’ll notice that we are losing sargents more than any other rank.

  • colorado bob

    Here’s the first three paragraphs from the NYT’s series on the Iraqi police. You will never read a more damning indictment than these articles….

    Law and Disorder
    Misjudgments Marred U.S. Plans for Iraqi Police

    By MICHAEL MOSS and DAVID ROHDE
    Published: May 21, 2006

    As chaos swept Iraq after the American invasion in 2003, the Pentagon began its effort to rebuild the Iraqi police with a mere dozen advisers. Overmatched from the start, one was sent to train a 4,000-officer unit to guard power plants and other utilities. A second to advise 500 commanders in Baghdad. Another to organize a border patrol for the entire country.

    Three years later, the police are a battered and dysfunctional force that has helped bring Iraq to the brink of civil war. Police units stand accused of operating death squads for powerful political groups or simple profit. Citizens, deeply distrustful of the force, are setting up their own neighborhood security squads. Killings of police officers are rampant, with at least 547 slain this year, roughly as many as Iraqi and American soldiers combined, records show.

    The police, initially envisioned by the Bush administration as a cornerstone in a new democracy, have instead become part of Iraq’s grim constellation of shadowy commandos, ruthless political militias and other armed groups. Iraq’s new prime minister and senior American officials now say the country’s future — and the ability of America to withdraw its troops — rests in large measure on whether the police can be reformed and rogue groups reined in.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/21/world/middleeast/21security.html?_r=1&hp&ex=1148270400&en=c361b73f04b294a5&ei=5094&partner=homepage&oref=slogin

  • Leslie

    Colorado Bob,
    I read one report somewhere, forget where sorry, that the Bush administration had allocated some paltry sum to train Iraqis. From everything I’ve heard and read it doesn’t sound like they receive adequate training. Then they’re put in harm’s way on the streets of Baghdad.

    What happened at Fallujah and the small towns along the Syrian border–words are inadequate to describe it. Horrible. Then what Larry says about the lack of potable water, electricity, etc. for months, years. The fighting. And it’s not as if no one warned Bush! His regret over saying “bring ‘em on” was the closest he’s come to an apology. Big Whoop! I still can’t get rid of the image laughing with his campaign donors as he looked under a tablecloth for the missing WMD.

    The situation for our troops…all of it just makes me so upset and angry.

  • mboy

    thanks for the article and analysis larry. i enjoyed this good piece, evoking some strong emotions. “wrong way riegels” was the appropriate comparison. like you said, they scored a touchdown for iran.
    thanks prez, for making us safer.

  • colorado bob

    Leslie..Your not the Lone Ranger….I recall David Halberstam on the eve of the war….” We’re about to plunge our fist into the hornet’s nest.”

  • colorado bob

    “Beyond the Euphrates began for us the land of mirage and danger, the sands where one helplessly sank, and the roads which ended in nothing.  The slightest reversal would have resulted in a jolt to our prestige giving rise to all kinds of catastrophe; the problem was not only to conquer but to conquer again and again, perpetually; our forces would be drained off in the attempt.”

                                                            Emperor Hadrian – “Memoirs of Hadrian”
                                                            – Marguerite Yourcenar, 1954

  • http://atotallysecularmohammad.blogspot.com Mac Nayeri

    LJ:
    I must respectfully take a contrary position here – unusual since I generally find myself in aggreement with you.

    Iran is not America’s nemesis.

    This subject is too lengthy to explain in a single post, so I will not attempt to do so. Let me quickly say, however, that with respect to the nuclear program, the entire effort is, in my view, geared toward achieving a diplomatic breakout from the isolation Iran has found itself in since 1979. Any kind of negotiated settlement is in Tehran’s view a victory for it establishes a formal procedure/diplomatic structure for Iran to come in from the cold and that, more than any other single event strengthens the country’s international postition. The clerical establishment fully understands the nature of American politics – they are students of our system and have long recognized the veto power particular interests have on particular areas of America’s MidEast politics. Their aim, therefore, is to force an agreement between themselves and DC and in so doing, breakout from it’s diplomatic isolation imposed upon them, as they see it, by those interests in Amreica’s political fabric that are hostile to Iran.

    For proof of this, look for a negotiated settlement to the nuclear program. It’s all smoke and mirrors. Their entire effort is a very expensive and elaborate ruse, vut from Tehran’s perspective, one very much worth the trouble.

    M

  • colorado bob

    The very fine Tom Lasseter of K/R….
    Posted on Fri, May. 26, 2006
    Iranian-backed militia groups take control of much of southern Iraq
    By Tom Lasseter
    Knight Ridder Newspapers

    http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/14677922.htm

  • taters

    Dear Retired,
    The Levant in 1983? Hollywood’s best writers could never have come up with anything to match all that was going on there then. Obviously as you would know – wasn’t that around the same time that Bashir Gemayel was assassinated – and Shatilla? God knows so much else. I’m simply overwhelmed by what you were in the thick of – if I recall correctly – the cast included Druz, Maronite, Muslim, ( Shia & Sunni? ) Israelis, Americans, Syrians,PLO, Hezbollah, the French, criminal elements, etc ad infinitum. Quite a mixed cauldron there that had gotten past simmering, to say the very least. I’m sure all of us of here would love any account or recollection that you might provide us during an unbelievable time.
    Also, any thoughts on today’s Lebanon and its future?

  • Mr.Murder

    Larry,
    On your first point, AWOL did not not admit mistakes on his part. He said others ‘misinterpreted’ what he said.
    Of course, firing interpreters for lifestyle decisions or political affiliations can lead to that. Instead, he was talking about the body politic at large.
    The other “wrong way player” – Jim Marshall of the Vikings, future hall of famer. Puts a whole spin on what Bush’s Marshall plan really is, with the mention you make of heading the opposite direction.
    “The “new” Government is one in name only. The Iraqi factions have failed to agree on who will control the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of the Interior.”
    One leader of Iraq’s new government says Iran has the right to pursue nuclear proliferation. Mission Accomplished. Whic bolsters your next assertion:
    “While Iraq politicians squabble, Iraqis with close ties to Iran are moving forward. Moqtada al Sadr, for example, is working quietly behind the scenes to infiltrate and seize de facto control of the police, the intelligence services, and the military. It appears he has made significant progress in this regard.”

    That we did not make him an immediate ally was a mistake. We wanted our Chalabi business connections. Ahmed’s seizing of Saddam’s INTEL history and comps and documents was played a part of that- Rummy and Feith could not get burned and made concessions.
    Sadr is a terrible foe, he’s in place to the point of being made a martyr if we go after him and has say how things run there, has been that way since day one. Blown up mosques may have changed the ability to ever calm the chaos there now.
    The country is full of death squads. The Savladoran Solution, redux. Thanks to Negroponte and his usual plausible deniability, things have become a quagmire.
    “The bottomline, Iran is consolidating control of critical parts of Iraq through its surrogate, Moqtada al Sadr. The civil war now underway consists largely of surreptitious group murders and retaliatory bombings.”
    You have a relative that was wounded in Sadr City, how is he today? From Sadr City to Fallujeh, there was a hub of interethic strife, and local czars battling one another for turf and brag rights. We didn’t side with Sadr, but chose worse allies to try and boost counterinsurgent approach within Shi’ite ranks against our pervceived obstacles. A good bit of the new insurgents were funded with weapons we’ve sent there or lost, while Bush continues to underfund necessities for our troops.

    “Since January of this year, the number of daily attacks has surged from 72 a day to 135 per day. Most of this violence is directed against civilians—Shia and Sunni. Yet, U.S. soldiers continue to pay a costly, bitter price. Our men and women are being killed at a rate approaching three per day. The wounded are triple that.”

    The effect of this on morale is the only thing worse than its real time impact on our finest. The growing ranks of overstressed and undersupported stop lossers are tired of being treated stop-gap. Combined with later notes it is an enveloping, metastasized crisis.
    “Baghdad remains without a consistent supply of electricity, gasoline, and potable water. Electricity production, for example, hovers between two to six hours per day. Friends who have recently returned from Iraq tell me that much of the disruption in the electricity and oil pipelines is actually caused by the Iraqis assigned to repair these systems. In other words, the local Iraqis with a vested financial interest in repairing these systems are also sabotaging them—think of it as a guaranteed jobs program.”
    Much of the policy enacted matches the same cause-effect result, facilitation of need and demand. The solution? Throw more dollars down the subcontractor siphon holes cost plus.
    “There are two significant dangers for the United States based on our current operations tempo (ops tempo) and force deployment—1) we are degrading the quality of the force, and 2) we are leaving the force vulnerable to a disruption of the logistics supply line if we decide to attack Iran.”

    You go to war with the Army you have.George Bush was not about nation building, he said that himself, it was as close as his god-directed insight has come to being prophetically correct.
    “The decline of the quality of the U.S.military—the Army, the Marines, and the Navy—is a middle to long term problem. An officer who works in military intelligence recently sent me the following after reading the email exchange between Joe Galloway and DOD press spokesman, Larry Dirita …
    ‘a military intelligence unit alone hemorrhaged 27 out of 35 O-3s. The community is not large enough for losses like that and thus those of up for promotion soon should not be overly proud they made it to O-4; it is nearly automatic now. The promotion rate is at 80% plus or minus a few points. I respect what Joe Galloway wrote recently. It is unfortunate that the sycophants have the run of the place in the OSD.’
    “Military and civilian leaders are trying to solve this personnel loss by offering more money for folks to stay in and lowering standards for those both recruited and promoted.”
    This dilutes the effectiveness from the top down, which matches the top-down bungling of the Rumsfeld DoD.
    A chain of command is only as strong as its weakest link. That people not fit for promotion get that in droves matches the Bush method as well. This is not a personal criticism, it is one of statistical human analysis, Larry shows grasp of numbers analysis with his alarm. The long range effect will be immeasurable. How can those with equal say and rank that are not matched in skill and apitutde create effecient policy and action? Collateral results will magnify. The promotion pace, matched with the aforementioned impact of increased casualties and stop loss will reach event horizons in real time.

    Haditha is the prime example of that. People in command face possible courts martial. Who exactly will replace those as well?
    “The United States ability to stay the course in Iraq is threatened by a fragile re-supply line, which runs from Kuwait north to Baghdad. This road runs thru the heart of Shia controlled territory. Everything we need to keep our Army fed and fueled comes up that road.”

    Thanks for stating what is well known so it cannot be denied. If you said this on the floor of Congress or submitted such words to Committee notes for testimony it would be classified and you’d be labeled a threat to American security or our goals against terrorists. It is a reality that is not being heeded and the fact we have to gin up runs on one spot lets those we fight gear up in advance.
    “We face a dilemma if we decide to attack the neighboring country of Iran because of its nuclear ambitions. Iran is not a passive observer. Iran is providing extensive, covert support to Shia militia in Iraq. U.S. military planners must assume that it is highly likely that insurgents backed by Iran will attack and cut the re-supply line.(A relative who served confirmed as much, although his background in language identification makes him rely upon the words of others in such areas). Truck convoys will be captured and destroyed. (Many of the original reports cited Sauds and Arab sympathizers, this is not the narrative Bush wants for fiscal reasons). Re-opening these roads would require significant military ground forces—forces that are not in the area and probably could not be deployed in any significant numbers for at least several weeks, if not months.”
    We’re doing a shell game of contractor armies to enforce this road, it’s a risk to our soldiers who go along to guard it. As you note how pipeline work can create demand by sabotage, the command oversight at DoD can bulk profits cost plus if runs on the road include cost plus abandoned vehicles, not even kept for needed salvage parts.
    “Our options in Iraq are shrinking with each passing day. The Shia forces are slowly consolidating their power. These are not secular Shia. They are religious fundamentalists bent on imposing their vision of sharia on Iraq. The secular Iraqis—Shia and Sunni alike—are fleeing Iraq. This brain drain further undermines the ability of Iraq to form an effective, competent Government.”

    This does cause alarm. To hedge the Shi’ites could have been possible but failed in practice. Trying to oppose the largest group first created seperation and let hostility increase. All of it was a matter of hard line conversation that pushed the country to polar extremes. Bush was not running for President of Iraq but to hear him everyone was a scion to fit ranks of Liberals that Karl Rove tries to paint the same color. The army was decommissioned and then rebuilt with less of its trained pros in place, unemployment festered and a new hostile Shi’ia led apparatus has been inserted into the puzzle. No other pieces will fit that.

    “The Shia backed by Iran are biding their time and moving methodically forward. The challenge for the United States will be to decide what level of support to provide to this emerging government. To the extent we are perceived as facilitating or supporting the Shia consolidation of power, we will also be perceived as an enemy of the Sunnis. While the Sunnis are a minority within Iraq, they have powerful ties to Sunnis in neighboring countries and will retain a robust ability to conduct insurgent operations against Shias (and their allies) for the foreseeable future.”
    Well the Sunni and Shi’ia were merged against America until Negroponte stepped into the picture. This is complex interactive model needed to split the Islamic crescent and dilute its focus outside its region of influence.
    The Sunni pan-Arabs will side with the Sauds against the developing pan-Persian reunion of Iran and Iraq. The perfume stolen in the embassy where the Niger forgeries reportedly surfaced is a symoblic item of traditional Persian wedding gifts. Chalabi’s union of his homeland spheres of influence grows stronger.
    The eventual wedding is going to be with both these spheres to extend beyond the scope of its lands. A powerful person with great respect amongst both Arabs and persians will make that happen. Will Bush’s biggest arch enemy be made the uniter? A de facto ruler by proxy and decree will emerge? pagin Osama, paging Osama, a call for you at the bully pulpit that Sadr controls… Meanwhile we’re pulling back from the Kurds as a concession to Turkey and to stage points towards Iran and Syria. The recent redployment of troops from Kuwait to Iraq(a reported 1,500 plus spike) is going to be key. Watch where they go, near either border it means we’re going pys-ops and starting something, perhaps on memorial Day weekend. Remember the Maine? Who will we blamed and what will happen?
    “Memorial Day 2004 was commemorated when almost 1100 American soldiers and sailors had died in Iraq. Two years later the number is rapidly approaching 2600. It is time for the President and the Congress to get serious about how long we will continue to sacrifice our young men and women in a cause that will ultimately strengthen Iran’s control of critical Middle East oil reserves. That, in my view, is not a policy worth dying for.”
    No policy is worth dying for in a war of choice. Policy never is placed ahead of persons. Leaders who do so are not good leaders.

    Oil reserves can be rendered irrelevant with the use of renewables. Fuel Cells were first available for market in the 80s and fully field deployable in the early to mid 90s.
    Reagan helped scale much of that back, as payback on his ascension due to the October Surprise. Others pulled the strings he was just the face for it(James Baker and Bush Sr. in particular). He even pulled solar power panels off the White House roof as a rollback towards Carter’s effeciency vision. Funny how folks claimed a person who captained a Nuclear powered craft had no idea how to develop safer, cleaner energy policy and manage resource. Meanwhile an absent minded actor was made into the ideal Ike-like dream, the Iran-Contra goons who ran his Whitye House amok are in control once more.
    Those things bring us where we are today. The Haditha incident is going to expand and unfold. The Saigon Chopper from the embassy rooftop is not far away, leaving Saddam’s old palace…

    There’s another solution, involving the new model. It’s about quadrangulation. Start with a predetermined agreement, then tweak two disparate parties to expand the scope of influence, usually along business lines. The Arab-Persian triangulation has a Kurd factor to play in. Our drawback from there probably merges a pan-Turk deal. The old post Ottoman BP alliance of BP in the Kirkuk area. History repeats itself. Watch BP subcontractors on the market, Blair’s visit here was over divvying up what’s left before the bailout.

    Reinstitute oil for food or some such, a war repatriations fund. See also the Katrina rebuild. Rove can run both of them for his legal defense! With oil for food comes no fly zone enforcement. We go from the north and south to the west. Look for the bases staged in west Irag to be maintained. Using logisital proxies of the new Iraq and Israel. Tweaking tensions on Syria enough to secure Sharon’s successor in the power void and provide buffer from Iran with our western Iraqi no fly presence. We want Iran to proliferate(see also the Cheney-Rummy subcontract trail from South Africa, North Korea, Pakistan). That makes the Star Wars program of Rummy a necessity. We expect to deploy/extort that in the mideast and asia. There remains a possible Tonkin scenario off the UAE coast…

    Meanwhile the gorilla in the room is the big oil money, Saudi nationalists, and loose Russian nukes on the market. Chances are we’ll need Star Wars and a buffer zone for Israel. The concession has been to allow genocide in Africa for the Al Qaeida sympathique from the Saud expansion efforts. The Sauds are expanding across the board still. This war is a distraction from those closest to Al Qaeida and remains the biggest danger to our efforts against terror against them.

    SNAFU and FUBAR at the same time.

  • http://www.seixon.com Seixon

    “OUR PRESENCE IN IRAQ IS HELPING IRAN CONSOLIDATE ITS POWER. IF WE WITHDRAW FROM IRAQ WE ARE IN A BETTER POSITION TO TAKE ACTIONS TO ISOLATE IRAN.”

    What sort of actions, Mr. Johnson? Attack Iran? Sorry, I may be deficient in logic, which is perhaps why you’ll have to tell me how it is logical that Iran will consolidate less power in Iraq if we withdraw from there. To me, that sounds like when we leave, the Iranians will be able to do as they please within Iraq without our interference. Perhaps you have come up with a magical solution to prevent Iran from meddling more in Iraq once we are out of there with no way to do anything, which is what I’d like you to elaborate on.

    “Seixon, I’m sure your parents wept over the fact that they’ve spent lots of money on your college education and you remain incapable of higher thinking.”

    Actually, I’ve been responsible for my own college education and I fail to see how your constant personal attacks against me instead of a reasoned debate reflect a man conducting “higher thinking”.

  • taters

    Gee seixon if you call THAT a personal attack amybe you should move back home with mommy and daddy. Have you still got pap on your breath?

  • Thinker

    A valuable and important piece of history and logic, Larry. I can add nothing nor take any. It is a stable and sad summary of what is and what may become.

  • Chris Vosburg

    Seixon writes: “Sorry, I may be deficient in logic, which is perhaps why you’ll have to tell me how it is logical that Iran will consolidate less power in Iraq if we withdraw from there. To me, that sounds like when we leave, the Iranians will be able to do as they please within Iraq without our interference.”

    Seixon, it may be the case that if you can’t intuitively grasp that our troops’ presence exarcerbates the problem, then perhaps you’ll never get it.

    But it might be worth another try, so take it from Lt. Colonel David LaBouchere, commander of british units north of Basra, musing over his possible response to having his base attacked by mortar rounds from suspected miitia members in a nearby town (from the Lasseter article colorado bob linked to above):

    “I look at them and say, `Shall I go and clean it up?’ And I think I’m just going to piss them off and drive them away from democracy,” Labouchere said. “Will I have done good for the people of al Majar? Probably not. I will have just radicalized them.”

    See how that works?

  • http://www.seixon.com Seixon

    Chris,

    Now you are conflating two different subjects. Lt. Colonel David LaBouchere was of course not speaking anything about the Iranians consolidating power in Iraq. He was reflecting on the fact that our presence in Iraq is akin to “damned if you do, damned if you don’t”. If we leave now, then the insurgents might screw up everything we’ve worked for up until now. If we stay too much longer, we could piss off more and more Iraqis.

    Back to the subject of Iran’s influence in Iraq, how will us leaving lead to less consolidation of Iranian power??

    Larry didn’t answer it, and you talked about an entirely different subject all together.

  • McGee

    Larry,

    Don’t know if anyone’s mentioned this yet, but I think Douglas “Wrong Way” Corrigan, the aviator who in the 30′s filed a flight plan to fly from Brooklyn, NY to Long Beach, Calif. and wound up in Ireland, might be the better anology?

    Great post, as always! BTW all, read Pat Lang today (Memorial Day) – the Colonel’s on fire!

    Link at:

    http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2006/05/adventures_in_s.html

    And speaking of Memorial Day, am I the only vet who thinks it’s one of the most depressing days of the year?

  • Chris Vosburg

    Seixon writes: “Now you are conflating two different subjects. Lt. Colonel David LaBouchere was of course not speaking anything about the Iranians consolidating power in Iraq. He was reflecting on the fact that our presence in Iraq is akin to “damned if you do, damned if you don’t”. ”

    [sigh] Don’t be such a dope. The “two subjects” are conflated, i.e., “fused,” because they are directly related.

    Look: the continued occupation of Iraq by American troops– and of course the British contingent of the, uh, “coalition,”– serves to drive more Iraqis to adherence with the Iran-backed militias promoting a hard-line theocratic alternative to the supposed democratic central government, unsurprisingly viewed increasingly as a puppet of those selfsame occupying forces.

    This isn’t rocket science, sonny; the failure to understand relationships between superficially unrelated events is the hallmark of this administration, by the way, and further the mark of a lack of higher brain functions, which is why you’re the subject of so much derision here. So don’t whine when you’re called on it; for heaven’s sake, just think harder. People are being killed by the thousands because you’re too lazy to put on your thinking cap.

    Start by reading the Lasseter article colorado bob linked to as a backgrounder on this before posting again, please.

    In fact, I insist. Tired of crap like this from uninformed loudmouths, you know?

  • Chris Vosburg

    Last add while my dudgeon is still high:

    What the hell did you think LaBouchere meant by “radicalize,” anyway?

    Christ!

  • Chris Vosburg

    McGee writes: “And speaking of Memorial Day, am I the only vet who thinks it’s one of the most depressing days of the year?”

    What, even with all the mattress store “sell-a-brations?”

    Seriously, though, McGee, I heartily agree. War ain’t glory, and it ain’t entertainment, it’s just something that sometimes has to be done.

    And sometimes not, which makes it all the more depressing.

  • Mr.Murder

    I was struck by the same when the VoA had a woman dj talking in game show mode about Gold Star mothers.

    It wasn’t really fitting the occasion.

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