Current Article

Influenza pandemic

By Larry Johnson on April 29, 2009 at 7:30 AM in Health Care

(bumped up from Tuesday afternoon)

This essay was written by my brother-in-law, Thomas D. Sears, M.D., F.A.C.C..

___________________________________________

I generally don’t comment on political issues. But today, I read the headlines (yes, they were a feature article) regarding the swine influenza occurring across the world. I’m a scientist, a Cardiologist, and practice in an academic situation. I have a bad habit of approaching the issues that confront me on a daily basis as a scientist; that is, I am a skeptic….the basic feature of a scientific approach to problems.

Therefore, as I examine issues, I look very carefully for the facts. And one of my expectations is that the ‘experts’ in important situations take the lead in their solution. To approach a significant problem otherwise is to drive the firetruck from the back by relaying hand-signals to the driver.

We have a very…let me emphasize…significant problem today involving health. For some reason, Swine flu has emerged in unison in a number of countries and states within our country in numbers which are, at the very least, surprising. Not unexpectedly the CDC, led by Dr. Richard Besser (a scientist) is quite concerned. The scope of the epidemic (I think, in fact this could be classified as a pandemic) is yet to be determined. But, clearly this is a virulent outbreak which has caused the death of more patients than would have usually been expected. Dr. Besser has made some significant statements regarding an approach to this impending threat. Those statements I have read seem quite reasonable to me including the release of Tamiflu doses from a federal stockpile (12 million doses, according to the news outlets).

What bothers me is that our government appears to be soft-peddling the potential seriousness of this outbreak. The facts indicate that we are once again acting as if we are impervious to these kind of threats and our President, although noting that there is ‘concern’ had stated ‘there is no cause for alarm’! His appointed director of Homeland Security has taken it upon herself to act as some sort of expert (I doubt if she even knows what kind of virus we are talking about) and has made similar statements. It seems that only local authorities are taking appropriate public steps in the protection of the populace. This seems a bit strange….to see local authorities aware of the issues, the CDC aware of the issue, yet our leader is treating this as just another outbreak of rhinovirus (the common cold).

The facts are that this is a potentially very lethal disease. Early in the 19th century a world-wide pandemic destroyed millions of lives. Interestingly, that influenza seemed to target for death more young persons than subsequent influenza epidemics. For an influenza virus to demonstrate the infectivity and virility of this latest virus is quite unusual….and I would guess, to a true virologist, a ’cause for alarm’. There have already been more than 100 deaths in Mexico (you might remember that country is pretty close to ours and the travel between is a bit loose), more that 1600 persons ill in Mexico, cases confirmed serologically in Canada, New Zealand, Spain, and France; this seems more than just ‘concerning’ to me. My guess is that a number of Infectious Disease scientists at the CDC are also more than concerned. Yet, our President and his appointees don’t seemed to be alarmed.

My hypothesis is that our President has no idea what he is talking about. I’ll go another step….I’ll bet his appointees don’t either. It’s disturbing to me that they pretend to know anything at all. The honest approach would be to admit their lack of basic knowledge and turn over all control of the actions to avert, stop, or treat this epidemic within the United States to those who actually have the expertise. The President could actually say “gee, i didn’t have the basic knowledge to direct this effort, therefore I sought out the help of true experts in the field to help us solve our problem and I intentionally put no roadblocks of a political nature in their way!’ Good grief, would that be a breath of fresh air? But those in power (not just the President) probably can’t get around their egos long enough to have the courage to do the right thing. Kudos to Dr. Besser and the CDC and I hope they are allowed to steer the effort in this issue.

Thomas D. Sears M.D., F.A.C.C.

Doc99

My hypothesis is that our President has no idea what he is talking about. I’ll go another step….I’ll bet his appointees don’t either.

Gird your loins. The country’s in the best of hands.

oowawa

There are no pandemics in Never-Never Land.

Nothing to see here. Just keep your eyes on the yellow-brick road ahead.

I’m a Linda too

lmao
beyond_words

here are no pandemics in Never-Never Land.

Nothing to see here. Just keep your eyes on the yellow-brick road ahead.

Lmfao!
btintaos

If this were the arugula flu, he’d be singing a whole different tune.

Ellen D

Many are praising the calmness and equanimity of the President.

However this old quotation rattles around in my head:”If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, then you clearly don’t understand the situation…

http://n/a J_Gocht

Gosh, Ellen D…

”If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, then you clearly don’t understand the situation…”

I’m sorry Ellen, but that sounds a little bit like a cute cliché.

There was a time in my life when many about me were “losing their heads” [on some occasions even my ownself]…

Those situations required a much steadier hand, [not necessarily mine] to calmly make an appropriate evaluation and chart a better course to successfully complete the mission.

Keeping one’s head, when “brown hits the fan” is truly a sign of great leadership and one I respect!

Benjamin Franklin Berfle

Keeping one’s head, when “brown hits the fan” is truly a sign of great leadership and one I respect!

I agree, but That One doesn’t make the cut. His “calmness” is actually a lack of empathy and understanding. He, frankly, doesn’t give a tinker’s cuss about anything unless it gives him his attention fix.

Yep, this situation merely gives him more opportunities to fire up the ~~old gaffe machine~~TelePrompTer.

http://n/a J_Gocht

” His “calmness” is actually a lack of empathy and understanding. He, frankly, doesn’t give a tinker’s cuss about anything unless it gives him his attention fix.” ~ Benjamin Franklin Berfle

Well now that’s very interesting there, Ben… shall we be so generous as to accept you psychological analysis without bonifides… or shall we accept without proof that you’re indeed a “Mentalist”…?

mary

J_Gocht

Gosh, sweetie, you really have the rational hot flashes for His Hopeness, doncha? Immanuel Kant’s Categorical Imperative would dictate that you would wish your leader to be posssessed of the same degree of empathy towards the less fortunate as you would and, by extension, the whole damn world,right dearie? So what the hell makes you so sure that this phenomenally clueless, immature Chicago political sewer “Prez-by-cheating” shows CALMNESS when he in fact remains clueless and in a NARCOLEPTIC PREZIDENTIAL STATE that would be indicative of a mind that has stopped functioning since birth?…

Obummer is PUNCH-DRUNK and his calmness and giggling personality is the result of his deep-seated NARCISSISTIC nature! The man is so much in love with Himself and it shows…

Now, honeybunny sweetie Goshboy, why doncha go give orders for an F18 to fly over some N.Y. towers for a nice Photo Op, ok…and get your cool-aid some ice hon!!!

J_Gocht

Good morning mary,

Honestly, my apologies for getting your philosophical undies in such a bundle just before bedtime.

I’m a real geezer and usually go to ground by 2100, so couldn’t apologize earlier.

My hope is that you felt better and got a good night’s sleep after letting me know…”what for”!

H&K’s…mary, [that's Heckler and Kochs]

dick tracey

Hey JGoscht – ARE YOU BARRY’S TELEMPROPTER?

Diana

He/she is something alright. Seems to me I remember another president being very calm during 9/11. Didn’t he sit and continue to read to the children? Instead of calmly excusing himself to find out what was happening to the citizens of this country? Seems he was also very calm during Katrina and afterward. We all saw how well that worked out…JGoscht must have been ecstatic with Bush and all his calmness.

J_Gocht

Diana,

You are correct I was truly struck by President Bush’s steely gaze and abject concentration on the dramatic content of the whispered message he had just received from his chief of staff, Andy Card.

If I’m not mistaken he remained seated and rocked slightly back and forth, for almost seven minutes?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ro3o-ld0CWw&feature=related

Diana

That was horrible, I was watching the news. I heard that reporter say, “Where is that second plane going?” I screamed, “Oh my God” and my whole family came running. I saw first hand what happened in Oklahoma. The buildings for blocks with the windows blown out. The children…the pain, the devastation. I still have a very hard time watching any videos for 9/11. If you say it was 7 minutes I believe you.

He could have calmly excused himself, “Excuse me children I need to go to the restroom.”, whispered to the teacher that there had been a national emergency. No, there probably wasn’t a lot he could do, but there is such a thing as compassion.

No, he couldn’t have prevented Katrina either, but they knew it was coming. Days before it was due to hit when it was evident people were not willingly going to leave their homes. Or the area for that matter. He could have taken control. Declared a National Emergency and ordered the National Guard to go in and ensure evacuation to safety zones.

Especially once it was known the state had no emergency plan and was just winging it. Which they were fully aware of.

Anna

This is an old executive trick. When you are in over your head, deny that the problem exists.

That way you get credit for calming the children — and most of the time problems do go away.

He uses this technique all the time.

Tricia Spiegel

Thank you Dr. Sears! I agree 100% that medical experts should be the ones making comments.

Thanks for contributing this post to No Quarter,
DCMediagirl

Hey Larry: Thank you so much for posting this. There’s been quite a bit of debate at my place of work about how newsworthy this topic is. Since I’m not a medical professional I thought this latest outbreak news was as hysterical as the coverage of SARS and bird flu. Now I know better. Please thank your brother-in-law for me.

http://noquarterusa.net/ SusanUnPC

I agree with you. When a cardiologist is that concerned, I pay attention.

Then there was something I heard last night on TV — that infamous epidemic that lasted two years, starting in 1918? — began in the spring and wasn’t that bad. But it morphed into a far more deadly strain by the Fall of that year, and became deadly.

My mother’s father died when she was 4 years old, drowned in his own fluids.

And didn’t it kill more U.S. troops in Europe / WWI than did bullets?

http://noquarterusa.net/ SusanUnPC

Here’s Wikipedia’s entry on the 1918 flu pandemic.

I’m still reading it — I’m curious to see if what i heard on TV last night is true, that it morphed over the summer and became more deadly by the fall of 1918. It lasted until 1920.

I also found an article in a Seattle newspaper about a little girl who survived but who, every year for years, got the same flu at the same time of year.
andrew 191

When more and more people have a relatively mild form of the flu, the chances increase for a more robust and deadly mutation to develope. But the people that were previously infected by the mild form will have greater immunity to the deadly form. So, it was better to get the Spanish flu in the spring of 1918, than to get the more powerful strain later. The problem will evolve and change constantly so it needs to be constantly monitored. Let’s hope it passes by without much impact, but be prepared if it doesn’t.
Jackarooty

PBS had a doc last year(?) about the 1918 influenza epidemic and managed to trace it back to “ground zero”. It’s path was insidious. My grandmother lost a beloved sister at the tender age of 20 from the 1918 epidemic.
I’m just grateful that it isn’t winter. It would be far more insidious and I heard that this current situation could ebb and then re-surge in the late fall and early winter.

WASH YOUR HANDS!
tek

WWI was over in 1918.

http://despair.com/changewinds.html Smilin’ Jim

The medical people are handling the medical problem.

The 24/7 Cable and Satellite people are handling the frenzied lemming angle.

The government people are trying to keep the frenzy at bay and, thus far, are doing well.

One only has to hearken back to the last “swine flu epidemic” in 1976 (most of you were in day care at the time, perhaps even the cardiologist) to see how a frenzied response to an epidemic can create blowback.

Google away kiddiepoos.

MrX

The problem is that people are dying and Obama is acting like there’s nothing wrong. Obama is completey disconnected to reality.

http://noquarter foxyladi14

i knew that a year ago..maybe longer.
Jackarooty

I wonder if he’ll play a round of golf this weekend.
http://despair.com/changewinds.html Smilin’ Jim

Ordinary flu kills 36,000 of us in the United States every year.

Suck it up & soldier on kiddiepoos.

socalannie

Nine tenths of people who die from regular influenza are elderly, or people who have severe health problems with weakened immune systems that the flu makes worse. Also, the number you quote (from CNN) has been contested as being too high by other sources.

DAB

That is usually the case but I heard that this new flu is actually hurting young people more than old. Very strange…

Arabella Trefoil

Wasn’t that the case during the influenza pandemic – older and very young people survided, but adults did not. One theory is that young adults, with robust immune systems, suffer from “cytokine storm” and it is that that kills them.

In an ironic twist, the people with less robust immune systems (the elderly and children) do not have this complication.

http://despair.com/changewinds.html Smilin’ Jim

Other than the yet again appearance of the mysterious blog panacea, “other sources”, there is no counter argument there.

boonies

Frenzied Lemming Angle!!!
ROTFLMAO, etc…
Hey what sort of effect will this have on ….(Head bowed) The Market?
Where is financial epidemiologist Jim Cramer when we nedd him?
Buy? Sell? Vacillate?
O how I need some wise insider to tell me how to think…
Baba Rum Raisin

Actually, some of us were even shaving and had served our military obligation by then. I still have neckties that I bought in 1976.

Remember Chevy Chase burlesqueing Ford, with the Swine Flu Vaccine hypodermic sticking out of his arm?
mountainaires

So, google away, I did. And, here’s what I found:

The last great swine flu epidemic

“This virus will kill 1 million Americans,” declared the U.S. in 1976. The panic then has a lot to teach us today.

The Great Swine Flu Epidemic of 1976 never took place.

By Patrick Di Justo

http://www.salon.com/env/feature/2009/04/28/1976_swine_flu/

the gal from cal

I am a healthcare professional (for what it’s worth) and the level of panic being created by the MSM agitating the Southern California population is moving faster than Swine Flu virus…

What people are not looking at is this: so far 150 people died from Swine Flu in Mexico. I don’t know about you, but the numbers don’t support a virulent strain. IF the reports were thousands OR tens of thousands of otherwise healthy adults dying then I would start packing my bags and heading for the hills. You have to look at the genetics of these flu viruses, and I too remember Swine Flu 1.0 back in 1976, the media urged people to get their flu shots and a consequence of that panic led a lot of people to develop Guillain- Barre syndrome. Can’t wait to see what the fallout is going to be this time.

Hmmm, interesting timing this news “evet” with Obumble’s first 100 days in office.

Diana

I’m wondering now if my family had the Swine Flu. My daughter went to Mexico and got ill with a fever, projectile vomiting, diarrhea, couldn’t hardly move about a week, just a few days before the first news started on all this. Then her son and both her daughters got it. Her husband. My husband.

Then my daughter in law and my grandson got it. Just myself, my son and two of my grandsons never got it. I just thought they all had the flu and kept waiting to catch it. They none went to the doctor, we just treated it at home with truckloads of Gatorade. Instead I had to take care of everyone else with it for 2 weeks, because once my daughter and her family were getting over it. My daughter in law and her son. My husband were getting it. We just finished this bout a couple of weeks ago.

mountainaires

Diana:

Yeah, I think maybe your family did have the H1N1 Flu–as they’re now calling it. Maybe you should contact a local public health official to notify them. Or contact the CDC, so we can all have accurate numbers and tracking information.

Diana

Thank you for that suggestion. I think I will follow it. If there is any chance they did have it, I agree they should volunteer to have the blood test, for accuracy. I don’t know why I didn’t connect the dots earlier. I just thought it was strange that 8 of them got so ill and 4 of us never got so much as the coughing, sneezing, fever nothing.

Usually the way it works around here is they all get sick and I stay healthy while taking care of all of them. Once they’re totally over whatever it is they had, I get it twice as bad as they had it. But, I don’t have time to be sick. I still have people to take care of. Plus, we have their philosophy of Mom’s miserable. This would be a good time to go away for the weekend and leave her with the children. Even my husband joins in on the fun and hollers for me three times as much as he does when I’m well. Can’t have me just laying around resting…;)

I’m a Linda too

Thank you so much for sharing your expertise, thoughts and concerns on this situation. I share them.
http://www.dwarfhamster.com dstdt

New solution Change the name!
John D

You would think if for no other reason than to avoid the “Katrina Effect” they would be hardening the borders and air travel from Mexico. If only for their own political preservation. They aren’t doing that. I find that fact the most worrying of all.

What is their motivation for inaction? Is it, in fact, ignorance or something else. Maybe they have found a way to get the virus to target bitter clingers?

politicalidentitycrisis

Obama is voting present!

imustprotest

It’s above his pay grade.

politicalidentitycrisis

He might be voting absent on this one, come to think of it! This is almost like another Katrina moment. Hasn’t he already had a couple of those??? There’s so much incompetence I lose track!

Won’t this help Sebelius get pushed through? Dang, how convenient for her. One would think that the POTUS would have wanted to get this taken care of much faster. Hmmmm. Still no Surgeon General??? He could probably push through anyone at this point. Is Dr. Kevorkian still alive? I lost track of that, too. If I were Barrakula and Rahm, I’d grab the worst guy/gal I could get. Never let a good crisis go to waste, they say! Hey, how bout that doctor in the Rezko case. The indicted one? LMAO, but sadly it’s not funny. It’s reality with Bush to the 100th power!

JustMe~~

There’s so much incompetence I lose track

That is just being GIDDY with “The Changes”
Take air it will look good second time around!
(snark)

http://noquarter foxyladi14

like every thing else..

Kathy

Absolutely right, those borders should be closed, or at least hardened. Thank you for this article and for confirming my “huh?” feeling when I hear the Department of Homeland Security talking about a health issue.

Mercedes

As far as I can tell, the main problem with this swine flu business is that no one knows who to believe about anything. There doesn’t seem to be a consistent story out there about what is going on.

First of all, the number of people getting sick and the number dying don’t mean much without comparing those numbers to what usually goes on year to year during flu season. One website had some information claiming swine flu was caused by a virus that looked like a laboratory concoction and not a naturally developing virus. That would worry me. I could understand how it could worry any government. I can see how that would be cause for a great deal of “concern” without necessarily being cause for “alarm”…as long as the virus isn’t killing or maiming large numbers of people or animals.

As for Janet Napolitano, I lived in Arizona when she was Governor. I have confidence in the woman and believe Obama could not have made a much better choice for Secretary of Homeland Security.

TeakWoodKite

Mercedes, What gices you such confidence in HSS Napolitano? What of her qualifications do you base this on?

Just asking as I have zero confidence in her expeience to do this job. Not that I would mind at all being proven wrong in my views about her.

Did she or did she not say illegal immigration is not illegal “per say”?

Mercedes

I like her combination of experience. I believe she was a protege of Dennis DeConcini and is close to John Kerry, both having roles on US Senate Intelligence Committees. She was US Attorney for AZ and Attorney General for AZ, and wasn’t afraid to take on TRW, a major defense contractor, on some serious environmental issues, for one example. She was very aggressive in dealing with the Bush/Cheney people when a major gasoline pipeline created havoc in Phoenix in particular. At the same time, her emphasis as Governor was on improving children’s programs, education, and she saw that State employees received a much needed pay raise. She was respected by her staffs all along the way. She was reelected as a Democrat in a very conservative State. I think she will protect individual rights during a crisis while protecting our physical safety. The only complaint I have against her is that she was not aggressive enough against developers and bankers who fleeced the taxpayers with their frauds.

As for illegal immigration, I think she said it was treated as a civil offense and not a criminal offense with respect to the illegals, certainly not with respect to the “coyotes”.

Also, her father was Dean of the School of Medicine at the Un of New Mexico, so she is almost certainly not the ignoramus some people are making her out to be when addressing flu pandemics, etc.

Hank

Dr. Sears or anyone, when someone sneezes or coughs and has the swine flu. How long are the droplets active for if they land on the floor, rails to an escalator, elevator, restaurant table, etc.? When the droplet dries does it die?

http://noquarterusa.net/ SusanUnPC

I was wondering about that too. For example, in the grocery store it’s impossible to know who’s handled any product that we buy, so how long does the virus live on a surface? Should we scrub everything we buy?

ziggy

I’ve been spraying anyone who approaches me in the check-out line or on the sidewalk with Lysol.

(Actually, Lysol spray is good stuff during any flu season. It kills flu viruses on surfaces. Just be conscious of its flammability.)

Benjamin Franklin Berfle

A cheaper and more effective remedy is dilute bleach on towlettes, which can be purchased at a premium or made at home for far less cost. Lysol contains other ingredients that aren’t exactly eco-friendly and irrespective of their claims to the contrary, do not kill on contact as does bleach, which not only kills but oxidizes the critters.
http://noquarter foxyladi14

yeah.don’t be spraying and smoking,
ziggy

Obama, of course, can’t suggest the obvious, common-sense responses such as disinfecting often-touched surfaces in public places, washing your hands frequently, avoiding sick people, or going out if you’re sick yourself. This would be the equivalent of pointing out that that hugh quantities of gasoline could be saved just by keeping our tires properly inflated.

Benjamin Franklin Berfle

Yeah, and using your logic, simply eliminating lawyers from filing malpractice suits would suddenly make our cost of health care go down dramatically. It wouldn’t and inflating tires would have the same marginal sort of effect on fuel consumption, mainly because you assume that everyone runs on less-than-fully-inflated tires and that they do it all the time. That is a fact not in evidence. Hell, you would be better off timing traffic signals in major cities so that if one was at the posted speed, they would seldom have to stop. Idling is the most wasteful use of petroleum imaginable. Going nowhere.
Owllwoman

Perhaps closing the borders with Mexico would have been a good idea as long as there are so many active cases in Mexico. Allowing these sick people into the US will cause the spread of this disease rapidly. But Obama seems to have no political will to do the right thing.

TeakWoodKite

My place of employment handed out a flier from the County / CDC regarding the Swine Flu.

Under “What can I do to protect myself and my family from getting sick?”

1) “Cover your nose and your mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze.”
2) “Wash your hands often with soap and water, especially after you cough or sneeze.
Alchol-based hand cleaners are also effective.”
3) “Avoid contact with sick people.”
4) “If you get sick with flu, stay home from work or school and limit your contact with others to keep from infecting them. Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth. Germs spread this way.”

.

Most of it is common sense, but since my tech work brings me in contact with keyboards etc, I had the same exact questions a Hank.

I guess my clients will not mind me using surgical gloves when working on their equipment.

One other item of note. Wipe down your workstations and work area on a regular basis with alchol disinfectant. This is one of the worst vectors for “bugs”.

Stay healthy everyone!
NomNomNom

CDC says “2 hrs or more”
http://www.mercurynews.com/breakingnews/ci_12238623
politicalidentitycrisis

Well, don’t forget hwo germ filled money is!

jbjd

Pontificating about issues in which he lacks a basic understanding, whether macroeconomic insolvency or health pandemic, makes BO consistent. When it comes to the health of me and my family, I do the research myself, preferring us to be broke than dead.

andrew 191

Just watch, in a few days 0bama will find an opportunity to lecture us all on microbiology, epidemics, immunology, and the process of adaptive evolution. He’ll become the formost authority on all of those disciplines. You can be certain that when 0bama lectures us today on esoteric topics like macroeconomics or foreign cultures, he just learned what he’s spewing, yesterday. He can’t resist showing all of us proof of his brilliance. What is most disturbing though, is that he actually believes that he is brilliant. “I have a gift, Harry”. The guy needs a complete psychological work-up.

Kathy

Only if his teleprompter is working.

andrew 191

YOU’RE RIGHT! ! I forgot about the TOTUS. Wouldn’t it be a scream if the TOTUS got a virus?

http://noquarterusa.net/ SusanUnPC

CHECK IN WITH TOTUS, and he’ll tell you all about it.

One problem that TOTUS is having, though, is that he keeps calling the DHS Secretary “Bruno Napolitano.” I hope he remembers to sub “Janet” for POTUS’s speeches.

Baba Rum Raisin

>>> Pontificating about issues in which he lacks a basic understanding

That’s what we used to call “Being Full of Shit.”

http://noquarter foxyladi14

we still call it that..lol.

Betty

ot, yesterday Janet Napolitano was making a statement about infectious diseases and she had a sore on her chest that just got in the way of ecerything she said – and I don’t even have HD tv. The open collar shirt she wore seemed to be picked to showcase that nasty sore. What was she thinking of – a dab of makeup, button up her shirt, anything would have helped.

Judy L. NC

ACK!!!!

DCMediagirl

Betty and Judy: According to Dr. Sears this outbreak is of serious concern. All you have to offer after reading this is some Mean Girl commentary about Janet Napolitano’s looks? Pathetic. It reminds me of when the media would demean and belittle Hillary Clinton by focusing on the diameter of her ankles and the size of her ass.

Cindy

DCMedia—-who made you “hall monitor” here at NQ? Based on your other comments elsewhere, you don’t seem to give a crap about American women and their rights. So, get over yourself.

dcmediagirl

Again with the insane ad hominem attacks, the defensiveness, the childish insults and the misquoting. You seem to be obsessed with me and what I write (or, more accurately, deliberately misinterpreting my views). It’s kind of flattering in a way while disturbing at the same time. It’s fascinating that you claim to fight sexism while defending commenters on this blog who make nasty remarks about a woman’s personal appearance. I guess in your world that’s what passes for feminism.

Judy L. NC

Lighten up, dcmediaGIRL….. Your characterization of MY comment is way off the mark. I was responding to “sore”. It didn’t have a damn thing to do with sexism. Fuck off.

Cindy

Judy—I totally agree with you. Clara Frenk(DCMediagirl) is apparently a very bitter woman and thinks anyone who disagrees with her is “insane”. But, thankfully, most people here at NQuarter seem to be nice and tolerant of other views.

Karma

Thank you Dr Sears.

Strange enough. Prior to this outbreak I was taking steps to boost my immune system. And had run across an ancedote about the Spanish Flu and honey.

~~~~

http://www.worldhealth.net/news/honey_heals_your_wounds

“Not only wounds are healed by honey, apparently there are also anti-viral properties in honey. Here is an anecdote from the time of the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic:

“During the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic, my dad was a little boy, 8 years old, in Stockton, California. His dad was a beekeeper, and kept some filled honeycombs in a closet in the house.
During the epidemic, the family members would go into that closet and eat some of the fresh honey every day, whenever they wanted.

The flu decimated the population of Stockton, including the families of their neighbors. Next door, only one little boy survived, and when he came out of the house, they couldn’t recognize him, he was so emaciated. Other whole families were entirely wiped out. They piled corpses in the streets, as there weren’t enough healthy men to bury them.

Dad’s (large) family escaped the flu intact. It skipped their house completely. Dad always said he thought it was something in the honey they ate that protected them.

He may have been right. I recently read that they’ve discovered that honey has a compound that turns into something like hydrogen peroxide inside you. For whatever it’s worth, this gives some protection from viruses.” ”

~~~~~

Do you have any thoughts about such an experience? Especially in light of some types of honey being able to fight the superbug MRSA? Such as UMF….New Zealand Manuka honey.

Thanks again.

Boxer Mum 06

I’ve been told that honey is also great for folks that have allergies. If you can find honey from bees found in your local community, it can help build your immunity for allergies.. who knows??

Cindy

Just remember: NEVER give honey to a child under 2 years old.
Karma

Thanks Boxer Mum

mountainaires

Thank you, Dr. Sears.

I read that the virus has also been possibly identified in Israel as well, and in Florida and North Carolina in the US.

I think it is crucial to keep in mind that people die every year from the Flu in the US.

The CDC estimates that about 36,000 people died of flu-related causes each year, on average, during the 1990s in the U.S.

Seasonal flu kills between 250,000 and 500,000 people globally in an average year.

Experts have said that the danger of the new flu strain – which has been misnamed “swine flu”, owing to the fact that it is a combination of pig, bird and human viruses – is that it is a primer for further mutations that humans may have no natural immunity to.

Good article here:

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LR748260.htm
Ani

Dr. Sears,

Thank you so much for sharing your thoughts with us. It is so difficult to know how to characterize anything that is coming out of the White House — i.e., be concerned, not alarmed.

You are right, it would be refreshing if they put all egos aside and deferred to the experts on this. Let us hope they very quickly find the wisdom to do so.

And Janet Napolitano needs to stop talking about topics of which she knows nothing — and turns out, her ignorance covers many areas. I am not thrilled with her appointment thus far.
Peggy Sue

Thank you for the reality check, Dr. Sears. I have to admit I’ve been very skeptical about this latest medical alert. We’ve had these over-the-top reports in the past [another poster mentioned avian flu and I remember West Nile creating panic in many quarters, and then there was the SARs outbreak].

Better to alert and use caution. And on your word, Dr. Besser and the CDC reports are the ones we should be tracking.

Thanks again.
arran

Thanks, Dr. Sears, for writing this post giving us your opinion of the gap between the dangers of a pandemic and the lack of seriousness of the Obama adm.
TexasMirth

As the wife of a physician on staff at one of Texas’ largest teaching hospitals and the mother of a resident in emergency room medicine, I knew there was a greater risk from this strain of flu than the general public seemed to understand. Thanks for posting Dr. Sears’ opinion. We need to be aware, to prepare in ways that we can, and not to panic.
SHV

Early in the 19th century a world-wide pandemic destroyed millions of lives. Interestingly, that influenza seemed to target for death more young persons than subsequent influenza epidemics.
**********
20th century…It is interesting that an “event” that killed more Americans in ~1 year than the Civil War killed in four, doesn’t register in the American psyche.
samb

I have been watching the press conferences and I don’t feel safe Obama doesn’t even have a health secretary yet , AND WHERE IS HE? PLAYING GOLF, AND DID’NT BUSH GET CRITICIZED FOR PLAYING GOLF DURING A CRISIS?

Docelder

The economy is about to crash from deficit spending and in the end everybody will wind up blaming it on pigs.

samb

Didn’t you hear that Obama is changing the the name if the virus, to a letter and a number, because they feel it isn’t really swine flu. NOT JOKING.

Tuppence411

Not to ever defend Barky, but technically, that is how the scientific community names human influenza viruses. It has the type, the location, the isolate number and the year. For example if you got a flu shot last winter it had
an A/Brisbane/59/2007 (H1N1)-like virus;
an A/Brisbane/10/2007 (H3N2)-like virus; and
a B/Florida/4/2006-like virus

andrew 191

Would that mean that we have an F/Indonesia/11/2009 (I8B4)-like president?

Tuppence411

LMAO- Oh that was a good one!

http://noquarter foxyladi14

he does now she got confirmed i guess this flu scare worked.now he can fill the rest of those empty posts

BVD

My entire family is uninsured, (we’re in TX). If any one of us should experience any of the swine flu symptoms, where should we go, who will take us? No one has addressed us uninsureds. Tho Obama knows we’re out here, I know this for sure. Thanks.

PO’dVet

Maybe he’s hoping he can get the unemployment rate down by letting all the poor and uninsured die from the flu. Sorta like he got rid of pesky poor people in his district in Chicago by letting them freeze to death in his real estate fairies buildings.
TexasMirth

In Austin, there’s Brackenridge, in Dallas, there’s Parkland, in Galveston, there’s John Sealy, in Fort Worth, there’s John Peter Smith, in Temple, there’s Scott & White…all these hospitals (and many, many more) take care of anyone coming through the emergency room. Bills may be issued, but the majority are never paid. I could elaborate on all the red ink in Texas hospitals, but I won’t do that here. If you get sick in Texas, you won’t be neglected.
pacificisland

I heard today about a mother in Queens, NY, who was trying to get Tamiflu for her daughter (who had been exposed or had the Swine flu), but there was no Tamiflu available. They’re running out of it in New York City. If you can’t get this anti-viral within the first 48 hours, then the course of the disease can be much more serious.

SHV

Didn’t you hear that Obama is changing the the name if the virus, to a letter and a number, because they feel it isn’t really swine flu. NOT JOKING.
*********
Obama isn’t changing anything, he is playing golf. It would make sense, however, to call it H1N1. I don’t know what “swine flu” means but enough people think that it can be ‘caught” by eating pork that calling it by it’s scientific name makes sense.

Docelder

Hadn’t heard that one yet. The economy is about to crash from deficit spending and in the end everybody will wind up blaming it on H1N1.
Tuppence411

It should be the Mexico flu, just like we had the Spanish flu and the Hong King flu. But Barky will be too politically correct. He wouldn’t want to offend Mexico………

HARP

That would make it a pig made disaster and it must have been unleashed to upset Muslims.

JozefAL

And the Jews.
The Deputy Minister of Health in Israel actually commented that the virus should be renamed “Mexican flu” because of the Jewish (and Muslim) prohibition on pork (and contact with pigs).
From The Jerusalem Post online http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1239710811758

Meanwhile, Mexico launched an official complaint to Israel on Tuesday regarding Litzman’s suggestion to call swine flu “Mexican flu” in deference to Muslim and Jewish sensitivities over pork.

Mexico’s Ambassador to Israel Frederico Salas complained to the Foreign Ministry in Jerusalem that the name Mexican flu was bothersome and worrying.

The Foreign Ministry stressed that Israel had no intention of changing the name of the virus and emphasized the friendly ties between Israel and Mexico.

During a press conference Monday, Litzman said the reference to pigs was offensive to both religions and “we should call this Mexican flu and not swine flu.”

Benjamin Franklin Berfle

Wherever this virus came to the attention of the authorities is the place after which they should name it. It is a little late to be PC, after all.

CG

Expert on flu’s spread says new strain here to stay
andrew 191

It’s a Mexican virus? It’s obviously up here doing the type of infecting that American viruses won’t do. And the word virus has such negative conotations, perhaps “undocumented, host occupants” would soften the impact.

samb

Don’t you think Obama will remember swine flu easier, because “Undocumented, host occupant” might take up to much room on the TelePrompTer
Baba Rum Raisin

Well said, sir!

http://noquarterusa.net/ SusanUnPC

HERE is a site that you all may find helpful:

“Flu Wiki Forum.”

I know the fellow who runs it, and he’s a brain who’s been studying the possibility of a pandemic for several years now. He also has lots of stats and lists, per country, about occurrences and preparedness.
NomNomNom

Wow. Not sure how I feel about this: my state, NC, involuntarily quarantining those suspected to have the swine flu:
http://www.infowars.com/north-carolina-involuntarily-isolating-suspected-swine-flu-patients/

Tuppence411

Ugghh. There is going to be over-reactions and under-reactions by public officals all over this country. Schools are going to be closed when they could stay open. Schools that should be closed will be open. People and their household members that are no threat will be isolated, while someone who should be quarantined will show up to work or decide to go to the store. It’s going to be a mess.

Benjamin Franklin Berfle

I concur. My only objection to this entire situation again rests on actual response versus self-serving blather from bureaucrats. On the one hand we get news of how dire this could be (and I’m sure that is a distinct possibility and am not trying to downplay that potential) and on the other hand, were this as bad as it could potentially be, then why weren’t the borders sealed as soon as the first reports started coming in? There is a functional disconnect between the talk and the action. Do these clowns know anything about risk assessment on either a temporal or spatial scale?

As an analogy, we were warned by the last administration ad nauseam concerning the great threat posed by our terrorist adversaries. But the call to action consisted initially of only “continue shopping”. Yeah, I’ll certainly buy into that. Dire potential should mean serious adjustments.

arran

NomNomNom–You might be interested in this link, “N.C. Testing for Swine Flu Underway”:

http://www.wsoctv.com/news/19302192/detail.html

Mecklenburg County medical director says the flu vaccine won’t protect residents from swine flu, but there are 2 anti-viral drugs to combat the illness.

The airport is on alert*, but not postponing the 4 daily flights in and out of Charlotte (now that’s comforting!). Passengers returning from Mexico are wearing surgical masks.

*being on alert just means officials are looking at people to “see” if they have any of the symptoms–huh?

NomNomNom

thx! my state government is really stupid.

arran

Nom3–Since the couple of NC suspected cases are *spread around” the state, here’s a link that may help answer some of our questions (I’m also a tarheel):

http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/swineflu_you.htm

Tuppence411

I am getting confused by North Carolina’s actions because they should have been able to move these people from “suspect” to
“probable” by now. Let me explain the usual process as of right now, a person has flu-like symptoms. Goes to doctor or hospital. Get screened for travel to Mexico or contact with someone who has. A rapid influenza test is done. If it’s negative or a B virus, don’t have swine flu. If it’s an A virus, it’s “suspect” and a swab is sent to state lab to type the H portion of the virus.
If its H3- seasonal flu no longer suspect. If it’s H1 or they can’t determine- they are now “probable” and goes off to CDC. That part takes time- transporting to Atlanta, length of the test, backlogs. (Some states are now getting approval and the materials from the Feds to do everything in-house, so that will move the process of probable to confirmed or cleared quicker.)

Susan B. Athena

Fort WOrth ISD closed schools until after May 8th. Highland Park ISD (in Dallas) canceled any extra curricular activities to keep students protected.

ziggy

We have dense human populations, often living in close proximity with animals. Humans have become globally mobile. Viruses cross between species. Birds migrate. Pathogenic viruses are constantly changing randomly, as if Nature were pulling the handle of a slot machine. Certain unlikely combinations can result in high human mortality, easy transmissibility, and a delay between the onset of communicability and the appearance of obvious symptoms.

Every so often the three cherries are going to come up.
pacificisland

Breaking – A plane from Mexico is now being quarantined at the BMI (Baltimore Maryland)airport.

Tuppence411

Two passengers were detained, but then released.

http://noquarter foxyladi14

people will stop eating pork.
NomNomNom

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdjRFJQuoiI
Rep. Bachmann (MN, 6th district) links swine flu to democrats

JozefAL

And once again, the ignorant skank follows the old direction “open mouth, insert foot”.
The first swine flu situation started when Gerald Ford (a Republican) was still President.
The first case happened in February 1976 (an Army recruit at Fort Dix died a day after complaining of feeling tired and weak) with the immunization program finally starting in October of that year (more than a month before Carter was elected) and ending in December (more than a month before Carter’s inauguration).
Bachmann needs to shut her piehole if she doesn’t know her facts. (Of course, where would the Republican Party be if its members actually knew what the hell they were talking about?)

Benjamin Franklin Berfle

Joze:

In October of 1976 I was at Ft. Sam Houston being trained to be a Medic in the Army. I was ordered to take and then given the swine flu shot after being marched in a cold rain half a mile to the clinic and then the same half a mile in the same cold rain back to the barracks. Needless to say, I was sick for a spell.

As I understand this outbreak, though, I may have some limited immunity. I’m actually glad I had it now.

Screw-The-DNC

To all those of you who think SARS was hyped up by the hysteria machine that is our media …

We will never really know how bad SARS could have been, because China took extraordinary measures to prevent transmission. I travelled to Taiwan and China twice during the SARS epidemic and was amazed at the screening measures that were in place. They had machines that each passenger had to pass that measured your temperature / heat-signature. (One of my coworkers set it off – he was still hot from sleeping off alcohol on the 16 hour flight, so they made him go into the bathroom and wash his face to see if it would register in the normal range.) They had everyone fill out forms stating where they would be staying – in case anyone on the flight came down with symptoms everyone would be called and checked on. I received such a call on one trip and was glad to hear that the sick person had a mild case and had been sitting twenty rows behind me.

My point is that China and other Asian countries took the threat seriously and took appropriate aggressive measures to make sure it did not spread any further than it already had.

As always, the prescient one thinks he knows everything and needs no lessons from recent history.
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blogforce one

It is not swine flu. This is a misnomer. the Flu is H1N1 influenza.
Andy

Dr. Sears; many thanks for your sobering post. I really appreciate it.
In my opinion your concluding paragraph is spot on. Unfortunately,
it seems our leaders are extremely arrogant and tink not only they know it all but that they know “more” than the many experts…
I was struck last week listening to a story David Brooks (who unfortunately seems to have lost much objectivity as a journalist) tol a story about how “supremely confident” (i.e. arrogant) our President is…. Listen here starting exactly at minute 22:

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/10250

Amazing….
Katmoon

Dr. Sears,
Some folks who are immune-suppressant drugs, are also wondering, about tamiflu, won’t do a thing for our situation, or will it?
Katmoon

That should say “on” immune suppressant drugs..

Thomas Sears

Katmoon: Persons on immune suppressant drugs or those with impaired immunity should benefit, in my opinion, from Tamiflu. It is a neuraminidase inhibitor…basically it markedly impairs the ability of new influenza viruses from exiting the cells within which they replicated themselves. Hence, they are trapped..and ultimately…and hopefully..the immune system will finally nail them. I realize this is somewhat simplified, but it serves as a description fairly well. The exception to this would be the subject who suffers from markedly impaired liver function since the drug is metabolized to it’s active form by the liver. This would include persons with cirrhosis (hypothetically), and those with severe liver dysfunction from some types of chemotherapy. Persons infected with HIV frequently are co-infected with Hepatitis C but have relatively adequate liver function until terminal. Therefore Tamiflu would be worthwhile in most cases. Remember that this drug is more effective if used early in the enfection before the viral ‘load’ is high.

Tom

Katmoon

Thank you so much Dr. Sears. I was interested to know,because of how we have to go off the immune suppressants, to take any antibiotics; imagining Tamiflu works the same way. I was concerned there would be a gap needed for the uptake of the Tamiflu to work, because of the possibility of the suppressant drug interfering with the uptake.I’m speaking specifically of patients on biologics or DMARDS, such as Humera (adalimumab) or combined humera/methotrexate. I appreciate your explanation, and if I understand correctly we have to have decent liver function, for the Tamilfu to work. So there shouldn’t be a problem as we must maintain liver health in order to take these medications to begin with; also that Tamiflu must be taken early, within 48 hours of onset of symptoms to be effective.
Thank you again Dr. Sears. I am not the kind to panic, but I also don’t want to be foolhardy, nor ignorant. I will give my Rheumatologist a call, to verify his future plan for how he will treat our particular group.

Cindy

Thank you, Dr. Sears. You’ve given us alot to think about!
Katmoon

First U.S. Death From Swine Flu Is Reported

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/30/health/30flu.html
beebop

In light of this, it seems so foolish to have demanded the resignation of someone like Julie Gerberding. The Democraps can scream all they want about who voted against funding (Schumer, anyone?????) and sing Happy 100 Days until the end of his term, but Dr. Gerberding — who I have heard speak — was in the forefront of the AIDS outbreak while she was in California. She knows what a crisis looks like. Am I the only bothered by the fact that she is consulting ABC versus working for the USA?????

Tom Cat “wodie j” Jefferson Esq

take heart, Sebillus is in as Surgeon General I believe, she can’t pay taxes either.

John Smith

One thing I don’t understand is why they have not shut down the border with Mexico except for essential travel. This is very irresponsible. We have an other Katrina moment where government failed.
Arabella Trefoil

I went in for a routine bone scan yesterday, and all the nurses, doctors, techs etc, were wearing face masks. In fact, the radiologist told me that the office manager had quite a scramble on her hands getting the correct face masks quickly.

I am fortunate that over the past 25 years I have had the same primary care physician who belongs to a first rate medical group. After 9/11, I was given special care (and Cipro) because I worked in the financial industry and I handled mail. The anthrax care was very real to me. (Plus I lost 7 co-workers – two in the planes and 5 in the office at WTC.)

Not everyone is as lucky as I am. And believe me, I know I’m lucky.

Obama doesn’t care about swine flu. He’ll probalby apologize to pigs for blaming them unfairly. He’ll just make us change the name of “swine flu” to something politically correct like “Anti-hope Virus.”

Obama has zero knowledge of the health care profession, and no curiousity about science. He wants to give people access to health care, yet he neglects the fact that our country soes not have enough primary care physicians, nurse practioners, nurses and other health care workers to take care of our needy population.

Obama probably has stocks of Tamilfu, so what’s to worry?

I am taking my GRE’s and prerequisite courses so that I can go to nursing school and do some good for my fellow human beings. We need to address this crisis seriously by creating programs to fund medical training.
Tom Cat “wodie j” Jefferson Esq

All travel to and from Mexico should be halted IMMEDIATELY. Some college guy said he wasn’t worried, him and his friends were still going to have a good time. While they’re over there partying it up, they’ll likely bring back this virus and infect people w it. Dumbasses.

The Mexican/US border should be completely sealed off as well. Put the military down there and beef up Border Patrol.
BARB

We are being told…not to worry because Tamiflu is available here in the USA.. No mention of side effects…so I was curious so I did a search and:

Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Tamiflu dangers reported

OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canada has asked Swiss drug maker Roche AG to warn consumers of possible health risks linked to its influenza drug Tamiflu, the health department said on Wednesday.

Ottawa took the step after receiving international reports of side-effects such as hallucinations and abnormal behavior, including self-harm. The reports include cases involving children and teenagers, primarily in Japan.

“Health Canada has requested that the manufacturer … update the Canadian prescribing information for Tamiflu to include this new information,” the department said in a statement.

According to Health Canada, there have been 84 reports as of November 11 of Canadian patients having adverse effects when using Tamiflu. Ten of those cases involved fatalities…

Posted by herbalYODA at 13:42
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Jason Zape

What bothers me is that our government appears to be soft-peddling the potential seriousness of this outbreak.

It’s not safe to assume that you were alive during the 1976 outbreak of H1N1, but I was. In hindsight, the biggest threat to national safety was OVERREACTING. I’m sure you are aware, as a doctor, of the consequences.

The 1976 influenza vaccine was NOT safe. 1 person died in the US as a result of the 1976 A/NJ/1976/H1N1 outbreak. Over 500 contracted Guillain-Barré syndrome from the vaccine and 25 died.

Let’s not overreact, be responsible and let’s make scientific decisions based on facts, not fear.
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http://pandemic3.com Pandemic 3

I sure hope another Pandemic does not hit our world again. I can’t bear to see that many people die!! Hopefully it will stay out of the US again.