The Nightmare Scenario
By PsychoDrew on April 24, 2008 at 11:45 PM in Barack Obama, DNC, Donna Brazile, Florida, Hillary Clinton, Michigan, Nancy Pelosi, Obamedia, Pennsylvania, Popular Vote
Well, he didn’t just throw the kitchen sink at Hillary Clinton. As Taylor Marsh noted yesterday, he threw the bank vault:
Flush with cash, Obama reported spending $11.2 million on television in the state, compared with $4.8 million for Clinton. Clinton’s once double-digit lead in Pennsylvania polls narrowed to single digits in recent weeks as both candidates put more time and resources into the state.
And the result? A huge Clinton victory.
Pennsylvania voters not only failed to deliver Obama the knockout blow he was looking for, they gave his opponent a big lift. First, the financial boost. In the first 24 hours after the state was called for Hillary, her campaign received $10 million in donations and added 80,000 new donors.
This is shocking, given that one of the biggest stories in the final days of the Pennyslvania primary campaign was Hillary’s debt and Barack’s relative wealth:
Obama began the month of April with $42 million in the bank for the primary to Clinton’s $9.3 million.
But Clinton had debts of $10.3 million at the start of the month, much of it money owed to her main polling, phone banking and advertising consultants. The largest single debt was to the firm of her demoted former chief strategist, Mark Penn.
In addition to boosting her finances, Hillary’s victory gives her momentum and paves a credible, legitimate path to the nomination. In the popular vote count, Hillary is now in the lead.
For months, party leaders have said that it would be wrong for the superdelegates to overrule the will of the people by giving the nomination to a nominee who did not win the majority of the pledged delegates. Donna Brazile, Al Gore’s campaign manager in 2000 and DNC superdelegate, has pledged to leave her position at the DNC if the will of the people is overturned.
Of course, it was assumed that Barack Obama would not only win the majority of the pledged delegates, but he would also continue to rack up popular votes as he rolled over Hillary. But so far, that hasn’t happened. And Democrats are now facing a nightmare scenario: Barack Obama with a lead among pledged delegates and Hillary Clinton with a lead in the popular vote. If Florida and Michigan are included in the popular vote count, Hillary is now in the lead.
A majority of Democratic voters, believe that in such a scenario, the superdelegates should support the candidate with the popular vote leader:
In the craziness of the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it is possible that one candidate might finish the Primary Season with the most pledged delegates while another could end up with the most popular votes. If that happens, 57% of voters nationwide believe the nomination should go to the candidate with the most votes overall. A Rasmussen Reports telephone survey found that just 26% disagree and say the nomination should go to the candidate with the most pledged delegates.
Still, 45% of Obama voters believe that the nomination should go to the candidate with the most popular votes rather than the candidate with the most pledged delegates. Just 32% of Obama supporters believe the candidate with the most pledged delegates should win.
Facing poll numbers such as these, with a plurality of his own supporters saying the nominee should be the winner of the popular vote, it is no wonder that Barack Obama refused to get behind new elections in Michigan and Florida. That said, Senator Obama may have nothing to worry about, if party leaders such as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has her way:
“I believe this will be over one way or another,” Pelosi said. “It’s a delegate race. In other words, if one wins the Electoral College and one wins the popular vote, guess who’s president of the United States? The way the system works, the delegates choose the nominee.”
If Hillary is able to hold on for six more weeks–and she may not given her financial problems–Democrats may well be facing a scenario in which the disenfranchisement of Michigan and Florida will rob Hillary Clinton of the nomination. Many of her supporters are already preparing for such an eventuality. Under such a scenario, Gallup polling indicates that as many as 28% of Hillary Clinton’s supporters will cross party lines and vote for Senator McCain in November. Case in point: Florida.
The new poll, which was conducted Saturday and has a 4.5 percent margin of error, shows McCain with a 53-to-38 percent lead over Obama in Florida. If Clinton is the Democratic nominee, the poll shows her edging McCain 45 percent to 44 percent in the state.
It’s time for a fair and equitable solution to the Michigan and Florida mess. Continuing to kick the can down the road, as party leaders have been content to do thus far, will bring disaster. As Shakespeare wrote in King Lear, and Keith Olbermann infamously noted in his anti-Clinton tirade last month,
Oh, that way madness lies; let me shun that.






















