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[Indiana & Nat'l Polls Updates] Breaking A.P. story: “Poll: Clinton has better chance than Obama of beating McCain”

By SusanUnPC on April 28, 2008 at 10:59 AM in Barack Obama, DNC, Democrats, Donna Brazile, Electability, Hillary Clinton, Howard Dean, Indiana, Oregon

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NAT’L POLL UPDATE: CNN’s Political Ticker reports:

Hillary Clinton’s Pennsylvania win last Tuesday has clearly given the New York senator a boost in the national polls, the latest daily tracking survey from Gallup suggests.

Clinton and Obama are now dead even at 47 percent among likely Democrats, according the newly released numbers. That number remains unchanged from a tracking poll released Saturday and represents a 5-point gain for Clinton since her Pennsylvania win.

In a similar tracking poll released the day of the primary, Obama led Clinton by eight points, 50-42 percent. The Illinois senator’s lead over Clinton reached a high of 11 points on April 14. …

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INDIANA UPDATE: The latest SUSA poll of Indiana: 52% Clinton / 43% Obama

Note: Below, I’m adding an update on how things in Oregon are going.
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Original: Yahoo News A.P. / published 40 minutes ago:

WASHINGTON – Hillary Rodham Clinton has a better chance than Barack Obama of beating Republican John McCain, according to a new Associated Press-Ipsos poll that bolsters her argument that she is more electable in the fall than her rival for the Democratic nomination.

[The survey gives] Clinton a fresh talking point as she works to convince pivotal undecided superdelegates to side with her in the drawn-out Democratic primary fight.

Clinton, who won the Pennsylvania primary last week, has gained ground this month in a hypothetical head-to-head match up with the GOP nominee-in-waiting; she now leads McCain, 50 percent to 41 percent, while Obama remains virtually tied with McCain, 46 percent to 44 percent.

Here at No Quarter, we already know that Hillary is far more electable than Barack. And we know that the rest of our fellow Americans agree.

NOW, let’s just hope that the DNC gets it. Having listened to Donna Brazile yesterday on ABC’s This Week, I have to wonder how much negative influence she has on Dean et al., and how much her irrational fervor for Obama drains the DNC’s ability to wake up and do the right thing — nominate the candidate who has A CHANCE of beating John McCain.

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Special thanks to pm317, who comments here regularly, for sending me this link.

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ABOUT OREGON (and those of us in the Pacific Northwest and in Northern California need to figure out how we can pitch in to help in Oregon — I HAVE CONTACTS if you can go to Oregon, even for a weekend, to help out — send me an e-mail at susanunpc at gmail dot com):

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is making a stealth play for Oregon, where a primary win next month — combined with her two strongest remaining states, West Virginia and Kentucky — may open up a pathway to the Democratic ticket by convincing superdelegates that she deserves the nomination.

– MORE HERE: Washington Times

  • http://nobloodforhubris.blogspot.com No Blood for Hubris

    Excellent.

    • workingclass artist

      Farmers ( Hoosiers of all stripes ) have no patience for CHICAGO style politics…..I am not surprised a bit….

  • http://www.villarrealsports.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=476 Paul F. Villarreal AKA “Universal” AKA “RokSki”

    And even MORE great news — this is NOT a repeat post.

    Click on my name for the link: SUSA: CLINTON UP 9 in INDIANA!!!!

    WOOOOO HOOOO!

    • workingclass artist

      I was checkin out the US census demographics site…I think Clinton has a serious chace of sweeping the entire agricultural midwest in the general. If the DNC is serious about wanting Red states back in the fold then they have to recognize Clintons appeal to the farmers…..
      Shapin up to be a FINE WEEK for Sen. Clinton….

    • Reverend Wrong

      Toast anyone? I mean Obama is toast. We can also toast to this too! :)

      • Dawnelle

        Let me try this again with html

        A Toast!

        lol

        • Reverend Wrong

          Thanks!

      • Hope

        Yeah BURNT TOAST! The smelly kind that smokes up the house! Hurry GET THEE TO THE GARRBAAGE CAN!

  • http://noratings.blogspot.com/ Bud White

    I think the supers might become exhausted by BO’s threats of a black revolt, particulary in lieu of the Rev. Wrong fiasco. Hillary’s won the popular vote, tied with pledged delegates, and leads McCain. Plus she dominates on state-by-state electoral map. She’s the obvious choice, IMO.

    • s. hall

      What if Obama gave a riot and nobody came? I believe that Obama hurt himself with AA’s by dissing his Preacher after calling him uncle for 20 years. So now they should go out and riot for this user? I doubt there is any energy to hold violent demonstrations for a man who would throw us all under a bus if necessary.

  • Ellen

    I’m so tired of hearing about Wright. I’m voting FOR Hillary Clinton. She has the vision, determination and the knowhow to get things done.
    Go Hillary

    • Reverend Wrong

      Can you consider changing your handle to “Nice Ellen.” There’s a (nasty) Ellen on here sometimes. :) I cringed when I saw “Ellen” listed under “Recent Comments.”

      And I understand being tired of hearing about him. But keeping his name out there damages Obama. Which baffles me if Obama’s campaign had anything to do with Wright’s media blitz.

      • simon, too

        Which baffles me if Obama’s campaign had anything to do with Wright’s media blitz.

        I’ve learned that sometimes bad strategy is just bad strategy.

        The problem with Astroturf, and PR, is it sells image, as opposed to talent.

        When the rubber hits the road, the talent isn’t there, and image can’t win a war.

        But I always try to keep on open mind…

      • s. hall

        I really believe that Wright was geniune when dissing Obama. Obama looked up to Wright who was on the same wavelength with him when it came to anger against whites. Suddenly Obama finds himself with a larger stage then the Southside of Chicago and Wright suddenly doesn’t fit in.
        Plus the polls show the issue damaging Obama’s credibility. Obama thinks about nothing but Obama first last and always. If I was Wright I would be pissed too.

  • Kefa

    Yes…excellent news. 9+ in Indiana

    • simon, too

      Agreed, but don’t get caught up in the “can beat MCain by 10″ hoopla.

      I smell republican oil, in the morning.

      Stay real, they make her the favorite, and then pick her down, it’s what they always do.

      Just like they did with Clinton and Obama, in the primaries.

      Remember she was annointed the nominee, pre Iowa, and then we had all this Obamagunk? (And it’s still not over yet…)

      It’s strategy, and they will do it, again.

      • workingclass artist

        Farmers love Clinton….She makes sense to them….That’s why she did so well in California and Texas not to mention Ohio….

        • simon, too

          I agree, but the onslaught of Republican propaganda, if she does get the nomination, will make this primary process look like a walk in the park.

          Should be interesting, though.

          • workingclass artist

            All she’s gotta do is promise ECONOMIC CHANGE….She andBill travel extensively throughout the agricutural hinterlands…She has these town hall style meetings…..SHE LISTENS TO THEM…And they feel she cares ….Ol’ Bill plays very well to these folks. Very Well….

            • simon, too

              Yes, and I say terrorism, too, her ability to handle say, Hamas.

              Which she can, very well, given the people who support her, like Gen Clark, and Holbrooke.

              They aren’t the kind to back away from a fight, or a bunch of kooky middle aged/old guys with guns, Holbrooke and Clark are among the best America has to offer, democratic, or republican.

              I mean, can you imagine having that idiot McPeak as your military consul?

              Yes yes, fantasies of “dirty harry” will scare the terrorists, and all women cry when faced with a challenge.

              And people wonder why Obama has to steal the nomination?

              Imagine those donuts in charge of defense?

              • simon, too

                counsel, sorry, I was thinking consulate.

                My bad.

  • Kefa

    I’d love to see the gap close in NC too.

    • workingclass artist

      NC is right next to Indiana….they are close politically speaking….I think she’ll take NC….

      • Reverend Wrong

        I don’t know about NC but if she did, wow!

        • workingclass artist

          Go to the US census site….Lots of CRACKERS in the state….Politically it is conservative and mostly working class….These folks don’t like trouble of any sort as they have been tryin to work beyond this chicago shit….

          • workingclass artist

            I mean historically speaking the whole region used to be KKK central.
            THESE FOLKS HAVE BEEN WORKING FOR DECADES TO GET OVER AND BEYOND THIS RACIAL DEVIDE….
            The good Rev. Wright just threw it back in their faces and it’ll piss them off.

          • simon, too

            And given the ubiquity of that word “cracker,” and the good reverends political leanings, I am, frankly, surprised he has not uttered it, publicly.

            • workingclass artist

              He would’nt…It is a southern term that is used amongst both races with tongue firmly planted in cheek….
              Wright might be familiar with the term HONKY….
              Not nearly as poetically funny as CRACKER in my opinion..Chuckle….

              • simon, too

                I’ve heard it used to refer to Anglos in a derogatory way.

                • workingclass artist

                  All I can say ( as a southerner ) is that it’s hard to keep a straight face with this term…..I’m just sayin’

          • speaktruth

            Yes, but AA population is 22%. When you think that about 98% are Dems that could mean that 40 to 50% of N.C. Dems are AA, which translates as a humongous win for Barack there. Does anyone know number of AA in Dem party there, and what exact polling numbers are there?
            I think that state’s a definite loss, only question is by how much. He has a fair amount of white support there, too. Numbers could be the same as S.C.

            • Benjamin

              In the latest SUSA, the AA vote was 30%, but I believe it is being a bit under sampled. I would say it is more like 35-37%. But if Hillary can get a decent turnout and 70% of the white vote (not impossible), then she can make NC close.

          • s. hall

            Do you think that NC governor endorsing Hillary will make any difference in their primary?

      • Dawnelle

        There may be too many AA’s in NC for Hillary to win but she sure could TIE!

        • workingclass artist

          Twill be interesting….No ?

  • rjj

    Howard Dean and the Party Elders are shutting it down June 3.

    What were Brazile’s words about “blood” exactly?

    I can’t find any quotes.

    • simon, too

      Howard Dean doesn’t know what he’s doing.

      Period.

      Howard, step away from your terrorist supporting candidate, and out of the chaos.

      THEN make a decision, when your head is clear.

      Hopefully, to resign…

    • Reverend Wrong

      Some bits from that link you provided:

      WASHINGTON – Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean said Monday that either Hillary Rodham Clinton or Barack Obama must drop out of the Democratic presidential race after the June primaries in order to unify the party by the convention and win the election in November.

      He can say they must I suppose but I don’t see Hillary dropping out when logically she should be the nominee. I guess Dean can thump his chest if he wants.

      This is interesting:

      “Either of these candidates, if it’s time for them to go, they’ll know it and they will go,” Dean said. “They don’t need any pushing from me. You know when to get in and you know when to get out. That’s just part of the deal.”

      That signals to me some kind of back room brokering or a sit down with the Baby Jesus telling him to wait 8 years. It is a possibility, based on Obama’s Iraq (Wright) and all the other issues.

      • Blue State Girl

        That signals to me some kind of back room brokering or a sit down with the Baby Jesus telling him to wait 8 years. It is a possibility, based on Obama’s Iraq (Wright) and all the other issues.

        Only in your dreams, perhaps. That statement more reflects Dean’s personal experience as a presidential candidate:

        Some commentators have speculated that if the race remains deadlocked after June 3 then a senior figure such as Al Gore, the former vice-president, or Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the House of Representatives, could prevail on one of the candidates to withdraw – with most people focusing on Mrs Clinton.

        But Mr Dean, who some have criticised for allegedly mismanaging the drawn-out primary calendar, dismissed that scenario as “total bullshit”.         He said the last such figure who had the authority to do that was John Bailey, a Connecticut Democrat who was chairman of the DNC from 1960 to 1968.

        “That person has been a figment of the punditocracy’s imagination for 50 years or more,” he said. “It is great drama to think of such a thing and Washington loves drama. But the truth is that as a former candidate I can promise you only you know when it is time to leave.“

        • Reverend Wrong

          Only in your dreams, perhaps.

          I was merely speculating. We’ll see who is right.

          • Reverend Wrong

            And I should add its not necessarily some organized meeting. It could be discussions that take place informally leading to Obama knowing he has to get out. Same end result, he gets out.

        • simon, too

          He wasn’t a Presidential candidate for all that long, he didn’t even make it to the GE.

          What we see now are just the regionals.

          And given his inability to really lead or handle this situation, his inability to resolve the issues, (Obama, or Obama’s people appear to dictate to Dean), I have to question any decision he makes.

          This fiasco, like or not, has led many to disregard him.

          No matter what he says, he will be marginalized, a weak, inefficient leader.

        • Percy

          Mr. Dean,

          With that said; I am expecting your resignation from the DNC any time now. Obviously you know it is time for you to step aside.

          Oh, on your way out take Brazile, Pelosi, Kerry, Casey, Dashcle and Kennedy with you.

        • workingclass artist

          I wonder if that was after his famous……..HOWL…….What a Putz…

      • honestlawyer mostly

        Perhaps there also is the realization that the “new voters” attracted by Obama are not new democrats but instead voted only because he was on the ballot. In Texas we had a number of Obama supporting candidates for local office who lost runoff elections because the droves who turned out to vote for Obama and who went to the caucauses for him, did not bother to return to the polls for the runoffs. At some point, perhaps Dean will realize that Clinton is better for the party.

        • workingclass artist

          Hmmmmm…….JUICY…….Got any stats on that ?

          • honestlawyer mostly

            I have no stats but one specific example involves our home county. In the primary, a young, black, former state trooper with an excellent record and reputation garnered (by far) the most votes in the primary, just under 50%. In the runoff, he lost to a retired, white, former FBI agent by nearly two to one. Clearly, those who voted for the black candidate in the first election did not return for the primary. In Texas, there is no cross-over voting in the runoff– only those who voted in the democratic primary could vote in the runoff. Also, in our county, Clinton barely won the popular vote, but Obama won the caucauses.

            • workingclass artist

              Ouch…..that has gotta hurt….Thanks….Texas was a disaster….
              The caucuses were rigged….

              • Lou

                I meant “that is why those who voted in the runoff were not there for the second primary.”

            • Lou

              Weren’t Obamas 500,000 plus hired youth going state to state and voting in every state. That would explain why the voters were not there in the runoffs. (move-on.rog hires them) ‘Looks like they had left the state. This is the fault of “open primaries”

      • s. hall

        You think Obama would just go without screaming that the US is a racist nation and firing up his base? From your mouth to God’s ears.

    • dark1p

      Sabre rattling? Which half of the Party are they going to piss off?

    • Dawnelle

      That’s fine. By the time PR comes around to vote, it will be sadly clear for Obiwan Acolytes that he has lost the rest of the country.

      He will either step down like a man or be told to……….. bow out.

      No inner wars need be started. The internet keeps us ALL on equal ground and the truth is like water. Hopefully not too late this time.

      He can remain in the senate but I think he may not win another election after today.

  • http://thehorizontalworld.blogspot.com/ Mary Jo Kopechne

    This on CNN’s main page, under Latest News

    Ticker: Obama’s support fading, polls say

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/04/28/clinton-obama-dead-even-poll-says/

  • pm317

    Thanks, Susan, for bringing attention to this.

    We should be seeing (hopefully) two themes emerge soon, very soon:
    1) he is not electable and bad for down ticket because of how Repubs use his baggage both against him and in LOCAL races, fair or not;
    2) she is still standing because people want her and not him (this in spite of all the biased media, DNC shenanigans, and so on).
    See Kristol in today’s NYT (if you can stomach him) — he said she is the better candidate while alluding to her win in PA and voters recognize that. Like Anglachel says, she is the voters’ darling and will win for that reason (disagreeing with BTD’s media darling premise) — I happen to agree with her.

    Media still think and say we all go back to support him if he were the nominee. We won’t, not with the way he has conducted his campaign, not with the way media has treated her, and not with the way the DNC and the political elite have treated her and us (think FL and MI). How can we say it louder?

    • pm317

      Media still think and say we all go back to support him if he were the nominee. We won’t, not with the way he has conducted his campaign, not with the way media has treated her, and not with the way the DNC and the political elite have treated her and us (think FL and MI). How can we say it louder?

      Just continuing the thought, he has pissed us off, the loyal democratic voters, (women especially who looked forward to a first viable female candidate/nominee), he will drive away independents and republicans with his baggage. So who is he left with?

  • http://thehorizontalworld.blogspot.com/ Mary Jo Kopechne

    Under Latest News, on CNN homepage

    Ticker: Obama’s support fading, polls say

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/04/28/clinton-obama-dead-even-poll-says/

  • Pingback: Breaking A.P. story: “Poll: Clinton has better chance than Obama of beating McCain”

  • http://texasdarlin.wordpress.com TexasDarlin

    Excellent post Susan, thanks.

    I did hear (I believe) one hopeful morsel (and big opening) from Donna B. on ABC yesterday. She said something like, “on the other hand, the super delegates want to go with the one who’s most electable.” This was on George S.’s show.

    – td

    • Dawnelle

      I saw that and I am SURE that is what she was saying. Slowly some of the BO supporters may be starting to realize this by now.

      She’s no dummy just proud of herself and her race. (that’s ok) And perhaps very much struggling with her inner woman right about now.

      They are all more likely to come back to Hillary than vice versa NO DOUBT ABOUT IT!

  • bluesky

    The tied is turning. I can feel it. I volunteered in Pennsylvania, and was in the State College, Dubois and Clearfield. I canvassed hundreds of these houses, and I can assure you these people will never vote for Obama. I was at a Sheets convenient store in the country, and I had 10 blue collar trucker men ask me for Hillary stickers. It was a site to behold. One trucker said his 80 year old father had organized 110 men at the union hall to vote for Hillary. They just love her. I saw a trucker put a Hillary sticker on his semi. It was awesome! The bitter comments, and the Reverend Wright thing had a serious impact on these people. They will never vote for Obama period. He is toast I can assure you.

    I was also at the victory rally in Scranton, and I met Hillary’s two brothers Hugh and Tony. They want volunteers to go to North Carolina. They said they need to chip away at his lead there. If anyone can go, please do. It’s an amazing experience to volunteer.

    • Dawnelle

      Aweeeee I LOVE that trucker story!

      Thank you!

    • pm317

      Thank you for that on the ground report. In my earlier post, these are the people I am talking about — they will not vote for Obama. These people are concerned about bread and butter issues, they don’t want hope and change, or at least they want to know what the hope is for and what change brings them.

    • workingclass artist

      The Working Class has spoken…..It is encouraging….No ?

  • Talktruth

    Great. Now BO can take Dean’s advice and drop out (I saw on one of the networks that Dean had said one or the other should drop out by June 30th or something). BO’s bored anyway (http://preview.tinyurl.com/6kdl5f), so that should work out for everyone! :-)

    • PMS

      If he’s bored campaigning against Hillary and wants to focus on McCain instead, then he really should drop out now.

      That way, both he and Hillary can begin campaigning against McCain immediately.

      Do it, Obama!

  • danglibrul

    Obama is waffle…I mean, toast

  • eezo

    I have in the last 2 months been asking people in these states In,Ky,Mo,WV and Il. I have only received 3 people saying that they will vote for Obama. Everyone else was McCain and Clinton. Alot of the people tell me that they dont trust Obama and some of the elderly are frighten of him and his associates. Isn’t it a shame when a candidate for president of the United States of America frightens voters.

  • http://www.thecjpoliticalreport.com/mysite.rss.txt Halli Casser-Jayne

    Susan,
    There was a subtle shift in Brazile’s talk yesterday. She said that the Demcrats will elect the candidate that they think will win. Not a great shift, but at least she was off her he who has the most pledged delegates mantra.

    Halli Casser-Jayne
    http://www.thecjpoliticalreport.com

  • alibe

    SusanUnPC….do you ever talk to Larry J? Can you get any info to Hillary campaign. I had an idea today. If you heard Bush talk today, he was talking about the oil in the Anwar Province and we need to drill it and get it. And we also need to continue to add to the Strategic Oil Reserves. (Naturally, Bush’s position) How about a position by Hillary that would stop filling the Oil reserves at this point and actually start using the oil by selling it on the open market? That will drive the cost of oil down. Use the money that we sell it for to finance a bail out of people who are losing their homes, and finance an investigation into behavior that caused this. Let’s use the Anwar province as our Strategic Oil Reserves. Don’t drill for it, but just use the reserves there as oue SOR. Imagine, if we used 20% to 30% of the oil in reserves to start to help bail out this country. It is weird to be adding such expensive oil to the SOR. Lets stop that. Break the escalating cost of oil.