Math that matters most. (With update from Mr. X, update II from Grey, Update III Hominid Views Monte Carlo)
By V on May 9, 2008 at 11:38 PM in Clinton, Current Affairs, Delegates, Electability, Electoral College, Fox News, Hillary Clinton, Obama, Superdelegates
Many people are asking. “Why isn’t Hillary leaving the race?” Or, “Isn’t the math prohibitive?” Well, the answer is given quite simply by Karl Rove. Now Karl may be a lot of things, but he is not stupid and he knows politics and elections. Unlike Hillary and her surrogates in the Democratic party, he does not have to say, “either candidate can win the general but Hillary is stronger.” 
He can tell the unvarnished version which is that Hillary wins against McCain and Barack loses. So it’s simple, a vote for Barack in the primary is tantamount to a vote for McCain in the general. (The chart to the right reflects Karl’s analysis that Nebraska and North Dakota will end up in the Republican column.) It’s very striking to me that the Democratic fortunes in November are completely reversed if we are foolish enough to nominate Barack. I’m sure this is why many superdelegates are sticking with Hillary or are still undecided. No one wants four or eight more years of a Republican in the White House.
I’ve posted his discussion by Fox News about this and about the Dems problem with Florida.
UPDATE: Please take a look at the analysis by Mr. X who writes that “His [Karl's] numbers match almost exactly what I have. There is almost ZERO way Obama can win and it’s almost impossible for Hillary to lose in the GE.” )
UPDATE II: Grey at TM in “It’s The Electability, Stupid” points to the new LAtimes/Bloomberg poll as evidence that the, “voters are quite stubbornly disagreeing” that Hillary should get out of the race. Grey also snagged this Morning Joe segment with Terry McAuliffe that’s worth watching. Terry’s exhibiting ample quantities of what someone recently called “testicular fortitude” and I admire and share his relentless optimism.
(UPDATE III. Show me the math!)
Many of us in the Hillary camp are flabbergasted by the lemming march the Obama supporters and their MSM tank drivers seem to be advocating for. Why the deliberate choice to install John McCain into the White House?
The primary contest is now up to the superdelegates whose duty and responsibility is to choose the strongest candidate to defeat the Republican contender. It bears repeating that in this cycle:
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Neither candidate has or will reach the magic number (2209) of pledged delegates
Neither candidate has an overwhelming lead in the popular vote (Hillary will end up with a bigger number by the time Puerto Rico is counted).
We know who is going to be the opponent — John McCain
We have state-by-state, head-to-head matchup polling data for most of the states
The general election is decided by the Electoral College in a state-by-state, winner-takes-all delegates, with the magic number equal to 270.
The DNC rules state the superdelegates are free to make their minds up about who might be the stronger candidate based on any criteria they choose.
So, with neither candidate able to show enough strength to win 2209 pledge delegates, it’s up to the SDs and how should they decide?
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Who has more pledged delegates?
Who has more popular vote?
Who makes the prettiest speeches?
Who gave them the most money from their slush fund?
Who has cooler graphics on their web site?
The color of their skin?
Their gender?
Who is most likely to maintain the Democratic majority in Congress?
Who can win the general election vs. John McCain?
Certainly it is not a majority of the pledged delegates, if that was the DNC rule, this contest would already be over. The rules deliberately set up the superdelegates to make a wise choice in case of a virutal tie like we have with Hillary and Barack. As Lanny Davis so often reminds the Obama MSM shills, the rule is most “delegates, not pledged delegates, not super delegates, delegates.”
The nice, democratic feeling popular vote total (will of the electorate and all that) is in no way part of the DNC rules. If it were, Barack would be in WV every day instead of blowing it off to hobnob with the SDs. The popular vote is, of course, a valid criteria for the SDs to use.
Of course, there is only one criteria that should matter — who is going to win the General Election against John McCain (with the secondary consideration being who is more likely to maintain or increase the Democratic majority in Congress).
I keep finding lots of data consistently showing how terrible Barack will do and how very, very strong Hillary is in the GE. For example, here are a couple electoral college charts from a Professor of Anthropology who does a lot of demographic analysis in his day job. He is performing weekly Monte Carlo analyses on the election (performs 10,000 iteration election simulations with randomness added for each matchup) and, once again, the data shows Barack loses and Hillary wins.
The color codes indicated the probability the democrat wins:
If you browse the comments to this post, Barack’s trolls seem completely offended and oh-so defensive when presented with the data. Perhaps this is because they don’t have any of their data to show. In fact, I’m still trying to find ONE data based analysis that shows Barack winning or doing better than Hillary in the general election matchup against John McCain. Here’s your chance Obamabots! C’mon, show me the data… Not too friggin’ likely. Instead I’m sure I’ll be hearing more of the hopium-changeyium B.S. Or I’ll have someone try to pass of a popular vote analysis as valid. Or a desperate, pathetic pledged delegate argument that makes zero sense for the General Election.
Thank our lucky stars the SDs will figure out what is in the best interests of the Democratic party by the time we get to Denver. Perhaps, once everyone’s had their chance to vote, Barack will do the right thing and concede. Go Hillary!!!
Over a dozen members of Congress from swing states had this to say in a letter they sent to their colleagues today:
Pennsylvania was not just a victory for Hillary Clinton. It was also a wake- up call for superdelegates, forcing us to ask ourselves two essential questions: 1) Which candidate can carry the magic 270 electoral votes to win in the fall? 2) Which candidate is most likely to help our fellow Democrats in down-ballot races? We believe the answer to both of these questions is Hillary Clinton.
On the first question, Hillary has shown she can win the all-important battleground states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida even while being outspent. This speaks to her ability to connect with voters we must deliver in the fall, including blue collar Democrats who can sway this election as they have in the past.
On the second question, Hillary has won rural and suburban districts which we as Democrats must carry to maintain our edge in Congress. Of the fifteen districts rated “toss up” by the Cook Political Report, Hillary has now won ten. Of the 20 districts we picked up in 2006 that had gone for President Bush just two years before, Hillary has now won 16. She is strong in the places we must win to hold and expand our majority.
This is a historically close race. The candidates are separated by a mere percentage point or two and the path to victory for each candidate is the same: win in the upcoming states and secure enough pledged and automatic delegates to get to the number required to win the nomination.
+++
We Democrats are justifiably proud of both of our candidates, and if Senator Obama is our Party’s nominee, we will enthusiastically support him. But our responsibility is not to choose simply to support the eventual nominee; it is to help select the nominee who is best for our party and best for our country. Our choice is clear: Hillary Clinton is that candidate. We believe she should be your choice as well.
Thank you for consideration.
Sincerely,
Rep. Michael Arcuri (NY-24)
Rep. Shelley Berkley (NV-01)
Rep. Marion Berry (AR-1)
Rep. Henry Cuellar (TX-28)
Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (NY-20)
Rep. Gene Green (TX -29)
Rep. John Hall (NY-19)
Rep. Darlene Hooley (OR-5)
Rep. Kendrick B. Meek (FL-17)
Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (OH-11)
Rep. Silvestre Reyes (TX-16)
Rep. Mike Ross (AR-4)
Rep. Joe Sestak (PA-8)
Rep. Ike Skelton (MO-4)
Rep. John Tanner (TN-8)
Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL-20)
by Ronald Scott
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