Can A Centrist Party Be Viable?
By Steve_in_KC on May 18, 2009 at 12:00 PM in Current Affairs, John McCain
I’m an Independent voter. I have rarely voted for Republicans, and never for fringe parties that don’t stand a chance, so why am I not a Democrat? Because I march to the beat of a different drummer, and as a long-time rock musician, I’ve known a lot of drummers, and they were all pretty weird.
The main reason I am not a Democrat is the same reason most unaffiliated voters are not party members. I’m just not a “joiner.” I’m not a particularly gregarious guy to start with, but I don’t belong to a church, any clubs, or even a rock band anymore. Too many egos. And weirdos.
I might consider joining a proper and viable Centrist Party, but they’d have to have the money, the clout, and most of all, the leadership to be truly competitive in our long-standing two-party system. That’s gonna be tough. Just ask Chrysler.
| Consider the pie chart, or even a real pie. So far, that pie has been divided pretty much down the middle between the Big Two, the Democrats and Republicans. By the way, don’t be fooled, the Republican Party is far from finished in this country. Everyone was proclaiming the Democratic Party all but dead just a few years ago. If the GOP could come back after Nixon, they’ll come back after Bush. I know there’s a dirty joke there just waiting to be exploited, but I’ll let it pass. |  |
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In reality, the number of people admitting to being registered Republicans is unreasonably low right now, similar to Bush’s approval ratings a year ago. And the number of independent voters is particularly high lately, with many people not wanting to be all that politically active. The independents are dividing their votes because they are not at all of one mind, politically. They are all over the road. So despite some claims that independent voters represent a third political power, they don’t. They are almost evenly divided on the right and left of the spectrum. |
| In order to compete effectively, a third major political party is going to have to draw both its constituency and its leadership from the two existing political powerhouses. That means cutting the pie into thirds instead of in half, and that means taking fully one-third of the leadership and voters from the Big Two. And if you think that’s going to be easy, just imagine trying to persuade a church full of worshipers that they are following the wrong religion. |
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Need a little help visualizing the math? The pie is easy to visualize, but it’s hard to put numbers to it. So lets try the hundred pennies concept. If the two major parties have 50 pennies each of the 100 available, how many pennies would they have to lose to be reduced to one-third from the current one-half? Answer: 17, one-sixth of the dollar. If both major parties lost 17 of their 50 pennies to the newcomer, how many would they have left? That’s right, 33 each. And how many pennies would the new party have? Let’s see, 17 from each of the two parties makes… umm… don’t tell me! I got it! 34!! That leaves the Dems and Reps with 33 each and the Centrists with 34. Now we have a contest!
It won’t be enough for one or two political leaders to break away and start a new party, even if they have money, name recognition, and millions of supporters working at grass roots levels. What good would it do to have one or two Senators? We need the full one-third to make a dent. Otherwise, what we’d have would be little more than a voting bloc that can throw its support to one or the other major party.
If we had the leadership, the constituency will follow. Convincing enough power players in the Washington scene to jump ship to form a third party is akin to starting a mutiny. They will know they may end up being hung from the yardarms.
Let’s start with a little mental exercise in choosing the politicians we wish would go Centrist and break with the 2-party system. I know I’m stepping into dangerous waters here by even mentioning particular names, but this is just a game at this stage, so let’s not go overboard.
Let’s start with our favorite, Hillary Clinton. Many people talked about wishing Hillary would leave the Democratic Party and run as an Independent. My opinion is that it would have been political suicide. She’s still the standard-bearer of the Democratic Party for many people who feel the Democrats were taken over by a faction of neo-progressives. For her to abandon the party that elected her husband to the presidency twice, and her to the Senate twice, would have made her seem fickle at best, treasonous at worst. If you think she got bad-mouthed in 2008, I shudder to think what would have been said of her if she had quit the very party that made her and Bill worldwide stars. In my opinion, Hillary could be a motivator and possibly an originator of a Centrist Party, but only if she was in the good company of dozens of other honorable politicians doing the same, coming from both parties.
Second on the list of contenders: Michael Bloomberg, mayor of NYC. There were rumors last election that he might go for an Independent run, based on his wealth and apparent independence from political strong-arming. He’s got the seed money to help put a new party in the field. And he might make a good president someday. Perhaps as Hillary’s VP first.
Third, John McCain. He’s been an ideal candidate for a third party for years. However, he’s getting a bit long in the tooth, too old to run for president. But he is still a power in the Senate.
Next, Sarah Palin. I question this one myself. I am halfway convinced she is damaged goods on the national stage, not through any fault of her own but by the vicious attacks of the Democrats that persist because they think she will be running against Obama in 2012. I’d welcome her to the ranks, but I don’t feel in my gut that she will be the star that some on the right envision her to be for their side. I am still on the fence about her as a Centrist. Feel free to persuade me.
Arlen Specter. Joe Lieberman. Jim Jeffords. All reasonable examples of high-profile politicians who switched parties or went independent. How about Ross Perot and Jesse Ventura? Now I wonder if these fringe characters are good examples of what we want or whether they are prime examples of independent candidates that were mere flashes in the pan.
I can think of many political leaders that strike me as potential political contenders in a new party, but in our polarized system or partisan dualism, it’s hard to imagine very many candidates with the intestinal fortitude to buck the system, even if they are assured they are in the company of an equal number of electable candidates. After all, they owe their success so far to the political party that put them in office. Why would they bite the hand that feeds them?
Perhaps the leadership a new party needs is to be comprised of people who are not already in elected office. Perhaps some who have previously been in office, but are out of favor with their party now, or lost their last election because of the Obama phenomenon. When the tide turns against Obama, as it surely is doing already, many of these ousted politicos could see a way back into office by going the Centrist route.
So, since I am running out of names already, I throw the floor open to nominations.
Who would you like to see in leadership positions in a new Centrist Party? Please give the reasons you nominate contenders. I would be particularly interested in current Republicans you can envision as potential Centrists. Remember, we have to draw one third of each political party, in theory. I know there will be immediate arguments that the large number of independent voters will make up for a lack of Republican converts, but please remember that many of those independent voters are uncommitted because they feel the Republican Party is too centrist already – not nearly right-wing enough. I know, crazy isn’t it?
OK, let’s hear from you now! Be prepared to defend your nominations from reasonable challenges.
And please, no cartoon characters! We have enough of those already!
by Ronald Scott
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