Comments on: The Wall Street Model is Officially Dead http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/26321/the-wall-street-model-is-officially-dead/ Sun, 27 May 2012 08:25:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.4 By: Sonic Ninja Kitty http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/26321/the-wall-street-model-is-officially-dead/#comment-1219302 Sonic Ninja Kitty Thu, 18 Jun 2009 02:37:25 +0000 http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/?p=26321#comment-1219302 Sorry for the disjointed posting, but here is an article on how and why he calculates the CPI differently from the government: http://www.shadowstats.com/article/consumer_price_index Sorry for the disjointed posting, but here is an article on how and why he calculates the CPI differently from the government:

http://www.shadowstats.com/article/consumer_price_index

]]> By: Jim N http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/26321/the-wall-street-model-is-officially-dead/#comment-1219299 Jim N Thu, 18 Jun 2009 02:27:56 +0000 http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/?p=26321#comment-1219299 <blockquote>There were over $96 billion tendered with only $24 billion accepted. So, there were 4 times the offers than those accepted. </blockquote> Clarification of the above: There were 4 bids for every Tbill sold. Crazy as it may seem to us sometimes, America remains the safest monetary refuge on Earth.

There were over $96 billion tendered with only $24 billion accepted. So, there were 4 times the offers than those accepted.

Clarification of the above:

There were 4 bids for every Tbill sold.

Crazy as it may seem to us sometimes, America remains the safest monetary refuge on Earth.

]]> By: oowawa http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/26321/the-wall-street-model-is-officially-dead/#comment-1219295 oowawa Thu, 18 Jun 2009 02:14:43 +0000 http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/?p=26321#comment-1219295 I guess this needs to be said, although it really should not be necessary: economic bubbles are not a good idea, because they will cause major economic distress when they deflate or pop. We should avoid economic "bubbles" of all kinds. I guess this needs to be said, although it really should not be necessary: economic bubbles are not a good idea, because they will cause major economic distress when they deflate or pop. We should avoid economic “bubbles” of all kinds.

]]> By: Sonic Ninja Kitty http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/26321/the-wall-street-model-is-officially-dead/#comment-1219290 Sonic Ninja Kitty Thu, 18 Jun 2009 02:08:31 +0000 http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/?p=26321#comment-1219290 ..and to LD, too! ..and to LD, too!

]]> By: Sonic Ninja Kitty http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/26321/the-wall-street-model-is-officially-dead/#comment-1219288 Sonic Ninja Kitty Thu, 18 Jun 2009 02:07:21 +0000 http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/?p=26321#comment-1219288 Hi Seattle, This is OT, but I found an excellent website called shadowstats.com It's a person who takes government data and adjusts it by adding/subtracting critical elements that the government leaves out/adds. He gives detailed explanations of how he creates each new chart. Current info is by subscription but anything over 6 months old is free to download so you can check out the type of work he does. Apparently it's used by many economists. His data currently shows a higher rate of unemployment, inflation, and CPI than the government does (as I've gleaned from commenters on other sites). I thought it may be interesting to you. Hi Seattle, This is OT, but I found an excellent website called shadowstats.com It’s a person who takes government data and adjusts it by adding/subtracting critical elements that the government leaves out/adds. He gives detailed explanations of how he creates each new chart.

Current info is by subscription but anything over 6 months old is free to download so you can check out the type of work he does.

Apparently it’s used by many economists. His data currently shows a higher rate of unemployment, inflation, and CPI than the government does (as I’ve gleaned from commenters on other sites).

I thought it may be interesting to you.

]]> By: whoisjohngalt http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/26321/the-wall-street-model-is-officially-dead/#comment-1219247 whoisjohngalt Thu, 18 Jun 2009 00:22:08 +0000 http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/?p=26321#comment-1219247 oowawa, we have been in a deflationary period since last summer. This time a year ago crude was $140/B. Housing & cars are going down in price. So what is out there to cause inflation? Nothing really. Was there inflation during the depression? No Can people get a loan to buy a house or car? Not like they use to. That killed GM & Chrysler & housing. What about jobs, unemployment 9.4% and rising? People who lost their jobs don't buy stuff--they sell stuff. Is that going to cause inflation? no Government borrowing at near 0%, lending to banks to replace their minimum reserves & then the banks buying tbills (not lending it), will that cause inflation? NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! IT TAKES $ OUT OF CIRCULATION & THIS IS THE BIGGEST DEFLATIONARY THING GOING. Comments? oowawa, we have been in a deflationary period since last summer. This time a year ago crude was $140/B. Housing & cars are going down in price. So what is out there to cause inflation? Nothing really. Was there inflation during the depression? No

Can people get a loan to buy a house or car? Not like they use to. That killed GM & Chrysler & housing.

What about jobs, unemployment 9.4% and rising? People who lost their jobs don’t buy stuff–they sell stuff. Is that going to cause inflation? no

Government borrowing at near 0%, lending to banks to replace their minimum reserves & then the banks buying tbills (not lending it), will that cause inflation? NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! IT TAKES $ OUT OF CIRCULATION & THIS IS THE BIGGEST DEFLATIONARY THING GOING.

Comments?

]]> By: IndianaDem http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/26321/the-wall-street-model-is-officially-dead/#comment-1219066 IndianaDem Wed, 17 Jun 2009 17:53:57 +0000 http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/?p=26321#comment-1219066 I think inflationary trends have already been with us for a while. Has anybody compared their current average grocery bill with that of one year ago? There's the subtle downsizing of packages. What was previously a 24 oz container has been quietly dropped to 22 oz--often with clever changes of box, bottle, or jar configuration to disguise the content shrinkage. While clothing might seem cheaper with all of the sales, that's more than offset by the general downward trend in quality and durability--a variant on the package downsizing theme. There's less and cheaper fabric content. Have you tried to find a basic, well-made, heavy-weight, 100% cotten sweat shirt lately? Or noticed how thin the cloth of a new pair of jeans has become? I think inflationary trends have already been with us for a while. Has anybody compared their current average grocery bill with that of one year ago? There’s the subtle downsizing of packages. What was previously a 24 oz container has been quietly dropped to 22 oz–often with clever changes of box, bottle, or jar configuration to disguise the content shrinkage.

While clothing might seem cheaper with all of the sales, that’s more than offset by the general downward trend in quality and durability–a variant on the package downsizing theme. There’s less and cheaper fabric content. Have you tried to find a basic, well-made, heavy-weight, 100% cotten sweat shirt lately? Or noticed how thin the cloth of a new pair of jeans has become?

]]> By: Seattle Moss http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/26321/the-wall-street-model-is-officially-dead/#comment-1219014 Seattle Moss Wed, 17 Jun 2009 15:39:37 +0000 http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/?p=26321#comment-1219014 Hello Ellen, There is a big difference between the industrial bags that I produce locally and the grocery style bags produced in China. My bags are part of the food chain and any changes in the manufacturing process through higher carbon taxes,high oil prices or draconian regulations mean higher food and other costs to the consumer. As for the grocery bags made in China...I say go ahead and limit them if you can since they are produced with chemicals that are harmful to the environment and have been banned in production here in the US. Hello Ellen,
There is a big difference between the industrial bags that I produce locally and the grocery style bags produced in China.
My bags are part of the food chain and any changes in the manufacturing process through higher carbon taxes,high oil prices or draconian regulations mean higher food and other costs to the consumer.
As for the grocery bags made in China…I say go ahead and limit them if you can since they are produced with chemicals that are harmful to the environment and have been banned in production here in the US.

]]> By: oowawa http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/26321/the-wall-street-model-is-officially-dead/#comment-1218980 oowawa Wed, 17 Jun 2009 14:14:51 +0000 http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/?p=26321#comment-1218980 whoisjohngalt, in this morning's article, market analyst Karl Denninger explains how we could be in for a crushing <em>deflationary</em> spiral: http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1127-Ssssshhh....-Its-D-D-D-D-.....html whoisjohngalt, in this morning’s article, market analyst Karl Denninger explains how we could be in for a crushing deflationary spiral:

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1127-Ssssshhh….-Its-D-D-D-D-…..html

]]> By: Hot librarian http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/26321/the-wall-street-model-is-officially-dead/#comment-1218939 Hot librarian Wed, 17 Jun 2009 10:47:53 +0000 http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/?p=26321#comment-1218939 Yekaterinberg....symbolic no? Iirc this was where the last Czar & family were shot dead . However it was an extremely very bloody affair because all had concealed bejewelled vests on & it took many bullets to do them in. Yekaterinberg….symbolic no?

Iirc this was where the last Czar & family were shot dead . However it was an extremely very bloody affair because all had concealed bejewelled vests on & it took many bullets to do them in.

]]> By: Ellen D http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/26321/the-wall-street-model-is-officially-dead/#comment-1218920 Ellen D Wed, 17 Jun 2009 05:55:15 +0000 http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/?p=26321#comment-1218920 Hey Seattle. Good to get an update on your business. In our area the trend for Supermarkets is bulk open bins. Hope that doesn't affect your business. We just laid off 2 people today. Our subsidiary laid off 30. Stagflation anyone? Hey Seattle. Good to get an update on your business. In our area the trend for Supermarkets is bulk open bins. Hope that doesn’t affect your business.

We just laid off 2 people today. Our subsidiary laid off 30. Stagflation anyone?

]]> By: HARP http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/26321/the-wall-street-model-is-officially-dead/#comment-1218919 HARP Wed, 17 Jun 2009 05:51:14 +0000 http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/?p=26321#comment-1218919 We can`t believe anything they say. Just take a look at what Paul Krugman said on August 2, 2002: To fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble. We can`t believe anything they say. Just take a look at what Paul Krugman said on August 2, 2002:

To fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble.

]]> By: OMG http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/26321/the-wall-street-model-is-officially-dead/#comment-1218917 OMG Wed, 17 Jun 2009 05:45:29 +0000 http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/?p=26321#comment-1218917 <blockquote>new rules designed to restore confidence by reducing the incentive for lenders to originate bad loans and flip them on to investors</blockquote> This sounds like HB 1728 where fudiciary duty with a 5% mandatory stake in the loan for originators for the life of the loan no matter what investor buys it. This sounds like a good idea but this is not only unproven, but can kill more jobs and businesses. The cash on hand required to have a 5% financial stake in every loan originated is too high to maintain for small Biz.

new rules designed to restore confidence by reducing the incentive for lenders to originate bad loans and flip them on to investors

This sounds like HB 1728 where fudiciary duty with a 5% mandatory stake in the loan for originators for the life of the loan no matter what investor buys it. This sounds like a good idea but this is not only unproven, but can kill more jobs and businesses. The cash on hand required to have a 5% financial stake in every loan originated is too high to maintain for small Biz.

]]> By: oowawa http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/26321/the-wall-street-model-is-officially-dead/#comment-1218897 oowawa Wed, 17 Jun 2009 03:59:18 +0000 http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/?p=26321#comment-1218897 LD, thank you very much for elaborating upon these proposed changes. So these procedures are going to result in an increase in interest rates, including higher mortgage rates. The Fed has been striving to keep these rates as low as possible in order to stimulate the economy. Aren't these considerations at odds with each other? LD, thank you very much for elaborating upon these proposed changes.

So these procedures are going to result in an increase in interest rates, including higher mortgage rates. The Fed has been striving to keep these rates as low as possible in order to stimulate the economy. Aren’t these considerations at odds with each other?

]]> By: whoisjohngalt http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/26321/the-wall-street-model-is-officially-dead/#comment-1218833 whoisjohngalt Wed, 17 Jun 2009 00:39:23 +0000 http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/?p=26321#comment-1218833 Weimar and hyperinflation would occur if the government printed $ with nothing behind it. This is not the case now. Here is the result from the June 16 auction for 28 day T-bills: http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2009/R_20090616_1.pdf There were over $96 billion tendered with only $24 billion accepted. So, there were 4 times the offers than those accepted. While it is true the government is borrowing incredible amounts of $, they are not printing it to cause hyperinflation like Weimar did. Thus, in the short-term I think the posibility of hyperinflation in a myth. Any other guesses what may happen? Weimar and hyperinflation would occur if the government printed $ with nothing behind it. This is not the case now. Here is the result from the June 16 auction for 28 day T-bills:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2009/R_20090616_1.pdf

There were over $96 billion tendered with only $24 billion accepted. So, there were 4 times the offers than those accepted.

While it is true the government is borrowing incredible amounts of $, they are not printing it to cause hyperinflation like Weimar did.

Thus, in the short-term I think the posibility of hyperinflation in a myth. Any other guesses what may happen?

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