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More BRICs Through Our Financial Window

In the process of rebuilding a home, let alone an entire financial industry and national economy, the last thing the United States needs are BRICs flying through our living room windows!! Well, get down and be careful because more financial shots from the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) nations are headed our way!

These salvos from the BRIC block started shortly after Turbo-Tim launched a barb in January about Chinese manipulation of their currency. The “incoming” escalated prior to the G-20 when Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao railed on the United States as having been the centerpiece of global economic problems. Jiabao then called for the development of a separate reserve currency in lieu of the greenback.

A few weeks back, I referenced trade discussions between Brazil and China in which U.S. dollars would not be used as the currency of choice. That shift was not highlighted by our national media outlets but is very meaningful. TCW strategist, Komal Sri-Kumar, highlighted this issue in writing The Dollar as World Currency: A Turning Point?

A week ago we witnessed Russian central bank Deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev indicate that Russia will reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasuries.

Russia did temper that message by having a spokesman indicate that they still support the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. In my humble opinion, I take that statement as akin to “sending in the clowns” for a fabricated financial transaction. Why? The trend from BRIC nations away from the dollar is too strong.

We see more “incoming” again today, as Bloomberg reports BRIC’s May Buy Each Other’s Bonds in Shift From Dollar:

Brazil, Russia, India and China are considering buying each other’s bonds and swapping currencies to lessen dependence on the U.S. dollar as their leaders meet for a summit in Russia’s Ural Mountains

The BRIC countries have combined reserves of $2.8 trillion and are among the biggest holders of U.S. Treasuries. The first BRIC summit comes after Brazil, China and Russia announced plans to shift some foreign reserves into International Monetary Fund bonds, driving Treasuries and the dollar lower.

What we’re seeing is a continuation of discussions to find an alternative to the dollar, yet nobody is going fundamentally to alter anything yet.”

Medvedev is hosting back-to-back summits of developing economies in Yekaterinburg as he seeks to ease the world economy’s dependence on the U.S. dollar. Medvedev began talks this afternoon with Chinese President Hu Jintao, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

The Russian leader reiterated his intention to push for the creation of a “supranational currency” to challenge the dollar and encouraged China and called on other Shanghai group members to use each other’s currencies for trade.

“There can be no successful global currency system if the financial instruments that are used are denominated in only one currency,” Medvedev said. “Today this is the case and the currency is the dollar.”

We can manage the BRIC activity as it comes through our financial window at this point in time. The risk we run as a nation, though, is that at some point in the future, the BRIC activity may also include the equivalent of financial Molotov cocktails that spark a significant decline in the value of the U.S. dollar and a concomitant inflationary inferno.

LD

  • felizarte

    a lower dollar should make US manufactured products cheaper for other countries to import and imports from other countries will be more expensive for American consumers. Perhaps in the long run, it might spur domestic manufacturing again.

  • Craig Della Penna

    It seems like we’ve been in an undeclared economic war for some years now with Russia and China always looking for ways to attack us. Now we’ve suffered serious injury through a completely self-inflicted wound.
    Perhaps it’s time for all those American-originated trans-national corporations to decide what side they’re on…

    • felizarte

      Nixon, in one of his books wrote about World War III being an economic war. Except at the time he wrote his book, he was looking at Japan and its global influence which is gone now. Now the US faces its old-time military antagonists–Russia and China. I fear that Obama does not have the historical perspective to handle this situation. His advisers are mostly quite young–post cold war babies. There is a perspective that can only be gained by living through a period.

      I am in great fear for this country.

      • Mary

        Mao always said, with a sly smile on his face, that China would take us down without firing a single bullet.

  • mark connette

    The lower dollar will only lead to one thing…INFLATION and with the way democrats are trying to spend money, possibly hyper inflation. Can you say Carter’s second term chicago style?

    • Sammie

      I’ve been worried about inflation, but I guess there are also concerns about asset deflation. At this point, I’m not sure if anyone has a clear indication of what we’re in for.

      http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1127-Ssssshhh….-Its-D-D-D-D-…..html

      “… debt deflation cannot be avoided once you blow asset bubbles supported by debt – it simply can’t. That cycle must end and when it does you wind up with the debt service sucking all the oxygen out of room and prohibiting growth. Once that condition asserts itself asset prices collapse and defaults go parabolic.”

  • wbboei

    Here is a concurring opinion from the only journalist I can honestly say I trust. He was mid east Bureau Chief for the New York Times and resigned after they reprimanded him for causing them to “lose the perception of impartiality” when he criticzed the Bush Administration which NYT supported at that point over the Iraq War. How many other journalists do you know who would give their stall fed existence in defense of truth and principle. That makes him a hero in my book, and I must warn you his assessment is even bleaker.
    ——————————————

    The American Empire Is Bankrupt

    Posted on Jun 14, 2009

    By Chris Hedges

    This week marks the end of the dollar’s reign as the world’s reserve currency. It marks the start of a terrible period of economic and political decline in the United States. And it signals the last gasp of the American imperium. That’s over. It is not coming back. And what is to come will be very, very painful.

    Barack Obama, and the criminal class on Wall Street, aided by a corporate media that continues to peddle fatuous gossip and trash talk as news while we endure the greatest economic crisis in our history, may have fooled us, but the rest of the world knows we are bankrupt. And these nations are damned if they are going to continue to prop up an inflated dollar and sustain the massive federal budget deficits, swollen to over $2 trillion, which fund America’s imperial expansion in Eurasia and our system of casino capitalism. They have us by the throat. They are about to squeeze.

    There are meetings being held Monday and Tuesday in Yekaterinburg, Russia, (formerly Sverdlovsk) among Chinese President Hu Jintao, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and other top officials of the six-nation Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The United States, which asked to attend, was denied admittance. Watch what happens there carefully. The gathering is, in the words of economist Michael Hudson, “the most important meeting of the 21st century so far.”

    It is the first formal step by our major trading partners to replace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. If they succeed, the dollar will dramatically plummet in value, the cost of imports, including oil, will skyrocket, interest rates will climb and jobs will hemorrhage at a rate that will make the last few months look like boom times. State and federal services will be reduced or shut down for lack of funds. The United States will begin to resemble the Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe. Obama, endowed by many with the qualities of a savior, will suddenly look pitiful, inept and weak. And the rage that has kindled a handful of shootings and hate crimes in the past few weeks will engulf vast segments of a disenfranchised and bewildered working and middle class. The people of this class will demand vengeance, radical change, order and moral renewal, which an array of proto-fascists, from the Christian right to the goons who disseminate hate talk on Fox News, will assure the country they will impose.

    I called Hudson, who has an article in Monday’s Financial Times called “The Yekaterinburg Turning Point: De-Dollarization and the Ending of America’s Financial-Military Hegemony.” “Yekaterinburg,” Hudson writes, “may become known not only as the death place of the czars but of the American empire as well.” His article is worth reading, along with John Lanchester’s disturbing exposé of the world’s banking system, titled “It’s Finished,” which appeared in the May 28 issue of the London Review of Books.

    “This means the end of the dollar,” Hudson told me. “It means China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Iran are forming an official financial and military area to get America out of Eurasia. The balance-of-payments deficit is mainly military in nature. Half of America’s discretionary spending is military. The deficit ends up in the hands of foreign banks, central banks. They don’t have any choice but to recycle the money to buy U.S. government debt. The Asian countries have been financing their own military encirclement. They have been forced to accept dollars that have no chance of being repaid. They are paying for America’s military aggression against them. They want to get rid of this.”

    China, as Hudson points out, has already struck bilateral trade deals with Brazil and Malaysia to denominate their trade in China’s yuan rather than the dollar, pound or euro. Russia promises to begin trading in the ruble and local currencies. The governor of China’s central bank has openly called for the abandonment of the dollar as reserve currency, suggesting in its place the use of the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights. What the new system will be remains unclear, but the flight from the dollar has clearly begun. The goal, in the words of the Russian president, is to build a “multipolar world order” which will break the economic and, by extension, military domination by the United States. China is frantically spending its dollar reserves to buy factories and property around the globe so it can unload its U.S. currency. This is why Aluminum Corp. of China made so many major concessions in the failed attempt to salvage its $19.5 billion alliance with the Rio Tinto mining concern in Australia. It desperately needs to shed its dollars.

    “China is trying to get rid of all the dollars they can in a trash-for-resource deal,” Hudson said. “They will give the dollars to countries willing to sell off their resources since America refuses to sell any of its high-tech industries, even Unocal, to the yellow peril. It realizes these dollars are going to be worthless pretty quickly.”
    The architects of this new global exchange realize that if they break the dollar they also break America’s military domination. Our military spending cannot be sustained without this cycle of heavy borrowing. The official U.S. defense budget for fiscal year 2008 is $623 billion, before we add on things like nuclear research. The next closest national military budget is China’s, at $65 billion, according to the Central Intelligence Agency.
    There are three categories of the balance-of-payment deficits. America imports more than it exports. This is trade. Wall Street and American corporations buy up foreign companies. This is capital movement. The third and most important balance-of-payment deficit for the past 50 years has been Pentagon spending abroad. It is primarily military spending that has been responsible for the balance-of-payments deficit for the last five decades. Look at table five in the Balance of Payments Report, published in the Survey of Current Business quarterly, and check under military spending. There you can see the deficit.
    To fund our permanent war economy, we have been flooding the world with dollars. The foreign recipients turn the dollars over to their central banks for local currency. The central banks then have a problem. If a central bank does not spend the money in the United States then the exchange rate against the dollar will go up. This will penalize exporters. This has allowed America to print money without restraint to buy imports and foreign companies, fund our military expansion and ensure that foreign nations like China continue to buy our treasury bonds. This cycle appears now to be over. Once the dollar cannot flood central banks and no one buys our treasury bonds, our empire collapses. The profligate spending on the military, some $1 trillion when everything is counted, will be unsustainable.

    “We will have to finance our own military spending,” Hudson warned, “and the only way to do this will be to sharply cut back wage rates. The class war is back in business. Wall Street understands that. This is why it had Bush and Obama give it $10 trillion in a huge rip-off so it can have enough money to survive.”

    The desperate effort to borrow our way out of financial collapse has promoted a level of state intervention unseen since World War II. It has also led us into uncharted territory.

    “We have in effect had to declare war to get us out of the hole created by our economic system,” Lanchester wrote in the London Review of Books. “There is no model or precedent for this, and no way to argue that it’s all right really, because under such-and-such a model of capitalism … there is no such model. It isn’t supposed to work like this, and there is no road-map for what’s happened.”
    The cost of daily living, from buying food to getting medical care, will become difficult for all but a few as the dollar plunges. States and cities will see their pension funds drained and finally shut down. The government will be forced to sell off infrastructure, including roads and transport, to private corporations. We will be increasingly charged by privatized utilities—think Enron—for what was once regulated and subsidized. Commercial and private real estate will be worth less than half its current value. The negative equity that already plagues 25 percent of American homes will expand to include nearly all property owners. It will be difficult to borrow and impossible to sell real estate unless we accept massive losses. There will be block after block of empty stores and boarded-up houses. Foreclosures will be epidemic. There will be long lines at soup kitchens and many, many homeless. Our corporate-controlled media, already banal and trivial, will work overtime to anesthetize us with useless gossip, spectacles, sex, gratuitous violence, fear and tawdry junk politics. America will be composed of a large dispossessed underclass and a tiny empowered oligarchy that will run a ruthless and brutal system of neo-feudalism from secure compounds. Those who resist will be silenced, many by force. We will pay a terrible price, and we will pay this price soon, for the gross malfeasance of our power elite.

  • http://noquarter foxyladi14

    this is alarming.L.D. what can we do..??

  • Mary

    Yes, LD.

    THIS was the big news the last week.

    Not Letterman, not Palin, not Twitter’s success in Iran, not gays, not whether Obama likes Fox News, not Olbermann vs O’Reilly, or any of the other braindead mush our media serves up to us.

    THIS.

    And the fact that Ahmadinejad was invited to, and attended, this BRIC, as did reps from Afghanistan and Pakistan.

    Our media did not tell Americans that the United States was not invited, or that when Obama’s administration asked to attend, they were turned down.

    And not a single one of the stations that got 1 on 1 interviews, even asked him a question about it.

    More impressed that he swatted a fly.

    Sad, sad, sad.

  • TeakWoodKite

    I am watching BO with the sound off on the Financial Regulations deal. Is it me or is it intentional that they keep the shot with out panning back to TOTUS?

    Is he really answering questions on the fly? So to speak?

    Look at the press Gaggle in the room. All the “heavy hitters” from the financial media looking dismayed and forlorn…

    One guy scratching his 5 o’clock stubble, a woman two seats down with her ears on fire and eyes glazed over …

    oops! DARN! C-span ruined it for me, they pulled the camera angle to left 45 degrees. There he is, flanked by the TOTUS twins.