These figures give us a total of 5186 voting Yes and 4814 voting No–a margin of difference of merely 372 votes. IF the African-American vote had been split with the same level as the Hispanic vote (53/47), the African-American vote would’ve been 530 Yes and 470 No–for a grand total of 5016 Yes and 4984 No (which would’ve still resulted in an overturning of same-sex marriage). NOW, let’s consider the African-American vote had been split the same as the White vote (49/51); that would’ve resulted in an African-American vote going 490 Yes and 510 No–for a grand total of 4976 Yes and 5024 No (resulting in the continued legality of same-sex marriage in California). If the African-American vote had been the same as the “Other” (51/49), we’d have an African-American vote of 510 Yes to 490 No–for a grand total of 4996 Yes and 5004 No (again, resulting in the continued legality of same-sex marriage).
The simple fact is that EVERY SINGLE VOTE COUNTS in any election. More importantly, when any single bloc of voters votes overwhelmingly in one manner, that bloc CAN contribute significantly to an election result. You might note that even among voters 65 and over–at 15% of the total vote, just slightly larger than the African-American vote–didn’t vote as lopsidedly. The only groups to vote against same-sex marriage with larger percentages were (1) identify as Conservative, (2) identify as Republican, (3) voted for McCain, (4) military background, and (5) identify as approving of Bush. Of those groups, only the military background voters were under 80%. Conversely, the only groups voting to support same-sex marriage by more than 70% were Jewish voters, non-religious voters and LGBT voters; Jewish and LGBT voters only made up 5% of their respective “relgion” and “sexual orientation” categories and non-religious voters made up 16% of “religion” category. Jews voted 78% to support same-sex marriage; “No religion” voters went 90% in support; LGBT voters were 98% in favor.
One could ask why LGBT weren’t 100% in favor, but the fact is that not all LGBT people support marriage equality. But, when you’ve only got 2% of the vote of only 5% of the population, you’re really not dealing with very many. Using our 10,000 voter sample, that’s only 10 people (that’s right–TEN). 5% of 10,000 is only 500 and 2% of 500 is 10. Compared to 1000 African-American voters where 700 voted against same-sex marriage, a mere TEN LGBT voters is really nothing. (Even a 100% vote favoring same-sex marriage among the LGBT community wouldn’t have had the same effect on the outcome if the African-American community had been split even as closely as the Hispanic community. Had the African-American community vote been split at the White/Asian level or the “Other” level, then the fault could’ve been laid at the feet of the LGBT opponents of same-sex marriage.

To me, the point is the hypocrisy, not that they were the largest group of people swaying the vote.

And RKStone, the issue is more one of Civil Rights in general, a point I thought I made. If I was unclear on that, I apologize. I do not blame AAs solely for the passage of Prop 8, and nowhere did I do so. Nor was that the focus of the article in general, which I did think was clear.

Thanks for the link. Very informative article – as I am sure you know, I am glad for Hillary as SOS as the one adult in the room, but it does irk me that she is treated so disparately. I am not surprised by it, mind you – I knew from the get-go that this was how it was going to be, but still – irritating.

Thanks again!

I think the best news in the demographic breakdown is the age in relation to the vote. If nothing else, time is on the side of gay civil rights.

By gender:
54% of Hispanic males voted yes. 53% of males voted yes.
52% of both Hispanic women and women in general voted yes.

By age:
59% of Hispanics age 18-29 voted no; 61% of 18-29-year-olds voted no.
60% of Hispanics age 30-44 voted yes; 55% of 30-44-year-olds voted yes.
57% of Hispanics age 45-64 voted yes; 54% of 45-64-year-olds voted yes.
There was not enough data to compare Hispanics 65 and over to all voters 65 and over.

By religion (not specific to Hispanics):
64% of Catholics voted yes
65% of Protestants voted yes
90% of non-religious voted no.
84% weekly churchgoers voted yes
54% of occasional churchgoers voted no
83% of people who’ve never been to church voted no
********

Age and Religion were the major factors.

The 70% “yes” vote by AAs on exit polling may be an over estimate…later surveys indicate a mid-50% yes vote by AAs. I have seen no breakdown of the AA vote by age or religious status.

And SHV, thank you – I have had those stats abt Hispanics in a previous post. As noted in this post, the stats abt the AA vote came from the LA Times.