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MEMO #5 to Superdelegates: Learning from Louisiana

By Truthteller on June 2, 2008 at 6:41 PM in Barack Obama, Democrats, Electability, Hillary Clinton, Louisiana, Superdelegates

Clinton can compete in Louisiana, while Barack Obama will polarize the electorate and thereby render it an environment hospitable to John McCain. View the results of this poll conducted by Rasmussen on 28 MAY 2008:

Clinton 40% …. Obama 41%
McCain 47% McCain 50%

McCain garners a majority of the vote when matched against Obama, who he leads by a statistically significant margin. But when McCain is placed in a hypothetical race against Clinton, he cannot clear the 50% threshold.

Indeed, she holds him at 47%, keeping McCain within the poll’s margin of error. Not only is this a sign of Clinton’s appeal to the different voting blocks that comprise the Louisiana electorate; it is a sign that she and not Obama will render McCain voters into undecided voters and potentially Democratic voters during the general election.

We need to ensure Louisiana Republicans and Louisiana Democrats who have been voting for Republican candidates for President and for US Senate during recent election cycles do not flock to McCain in 2008, for Mary Landrieu, the incumbent Democratic Senator of that state, will wage a highly competitive reelection bid this cycle against Republican State Treasurer John Kennedy. Here are the results of the poll of that race Rasmussen conducted on 28 MAY:

Landrieu (D) 47%
Kennedy (R) 44%

Already embroiled in a toss up against John Kennedy, Landrieu cannot afford to contend with an electoral environment wherein the majority of voters will be supporting John McCain. This is what will occur if Obama is the Democratic nominee, for McCain already enjoys over 50% of the vote when matched against the Senator of Illinois. Clinton, on the other hand, chisels away at McCain’s Louisiana base, increasing the number of undecided voters who will determine Mary Landrieu’s political future. If we want to ensure Landrieu is reelected, we will nominate Hillary Clinton, who will win Arkansas and render Louisiana competitive.

Perhaps polling data such as that released by Rasmussen today explains why automatic delegate Chris Whittington, Chairman of the Louisiana Democratic Party, endorsed Hillary Clinton today. I quote:

“There is no question that she is the strongest Democrat to go toe-to-toe with John McCain in a general election. It is our responsibility as automatic delegates to choose the candidate we believe best fit to beat Senator McCain. That candidate is Senator Clinton.”

At least Whittington understands his responsibility to Louisiana Democrats and the Democratic Party. Will other superdelegates follow his lead? Will other superdelegates ensure Mary Landrieu is reelected? Will other superdelegates help Democrats compete in Louisiana? We won Louisiana in 1992 and 1996, and with Hillary Cinton on the ballot, we have a chance to win it again in 2008.

  • artist

    She should be pressing Cazayoux (SP?) for his vote. He’s in a very R district, if he endorses Obama that seat is gone in Nov!

    In other news:

    http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/06/02/obamas-ex-church-has-won-15m-in-federal-grant-money/

  • http://liberalrapture.com scott

    Truthteller fix your chart.

    • http://noquarterusa.net/blog/ Truthteller

      The data in my chart is correct, and my charts are perfectly configured. To what, exactly, are you referring?

  • katmandu

    Yes, and look at CT, where Obama is ahead by only 3. Republicans should not be putting that state into play. (Of course, Dukakis lost it.)
    Obama’s behind in NC, which he sees as a pickup state. Hillary is still doing better than BO nationally, per Gallup.

    Grouch of the hour — Kos is demeaning Hill again by saying in his diary that she would not be where she is but for Bill. And the misogynists on the site (who perceive of themselves as tolerant liberals) are joining right in.

    • Genevieve

      Lieberman could help McCain flip Connecticut and keep Florida red. Not because he’d be a VP, though he’s been mentioned, but the two are great friends and Lieberman has already been campaigning for MCain.

      • rjj

        With Lieberman I’d stay home.

    • Kinky Ogremann

      And remember – Obama had actually won North Carolina by double digits in the primary. All polls show him currently losing NC to both McCain AND Hillary (and big too)! This is a surprising turn – it shows that the church fiasco has severely hurt Obama as well as more recent revelations. For Obama, it only goes downhill as he had already reached his highest right before the primaries. Hillary seems to only be wooing more and more people to her side. This is a huge mistake for the Democrats and utter stupidity.

      • Lou

        Well, I say perhaps the current polls reflect the true vote less the double vote and dead vote.

  • artist

    Specter is considering Congressional hearings on the MI and FL fiasco.

    Call and email him!

    • Genevieve

      That is a shrewd move on his part. If Republicans were to pursue legal action against the DNC and the RBC through the Senate Judiciary Committee, that would play very well in the fall. He might be able to get a Republican in Bob Casey, Jr.’s seat, as well. I would love a real skirmish between the two parties after all this talk of “unity” and shit. This has more to do with the Democratic party being weak and inefficient than any conspiracy among the Beltway insiders. I say run the rats out of the Capitol, and I don’t care if there’s an R or a D by their name.

      • stodghie

        on another blog they were speculating that the democrats would never allow them to hold hearings. i reminded all that the dems held the meetings on the papers from england in a big closet but got time on cspan. that’s all the repubs want time before the public to make their case. they’ll get it.

      • Lou

        Let’s do it. No integrity, then you are gone.

    • Hillaryormccain08

      I have already done so will continue to do so. He is my Senator and I am glad he is getting involved with this.

  • Nancy

    A margin of error of 4.5 can swing either way. Clinton’s support could be anywhere from 35.5% to 44.5%, and McCain’s anywhere from 42.5% to 51.5%. Obviously, it’s most likely that McCain is indeed ahead. But it’s telling that when Hillary is on the ballot, his support drops from 50% to 47%. If he stays beneath 50% in the polls there, he has to be concerned. And if Louisiana Dems are motivated by a close race to go to the polls, that helps Landrieu and other downticket candidates, while a lopsided race could suppress turnout and help the GOP across the board.

  • tootsky

    Louisiana…now there’s a surprise. They almost elected David Duke.

    • Genevieve

      Ooooh, but Obambi won the primary, and he was supposed to maybe flip this state in the GE. Mark my words, he won’t flip VA, either, even with Webb on the ticket. A recent poll has him and McCain in VA tied at 47%. The whole country will vote against the empty suit, but it will go down as racism among his supporters.

      • stodghie

        well, it’s already racism 24/7 with these folks, so nothing to lose there.

  • Mr X

    What amazes me is how much data is available and how Obama SD’s and supporters discount it. It’s not like other elections where the candidate could work at it. Obama has polarized the electorate. There is no turning back.

    Look at these states that Hillary can get where Obama has ZERO chance.

    Florida (27)
    Nevada (5)
    West Virginia (5)
    Kentucky (8)
    Arkansas (6)

    51 EV that Obama will never get that Hillary can. MO(11) looks doubtful for Obama too.

    There are no states where Obama is doing well that Hillary isn’t doing better or can’t compete in. Colorado is his best bet, but that’s only 9 EV. On top of the above list, he’s having problems in OH(20) & PA(21) where Hillary is doing well. When you have difficulty in all three swing states, and you still go with that person, then you want to lose.

    These facts won’t change in November. They’ll only get worse.

    Obama will never make WV competitive.
    Obama will never make FL competitive.
    Obama will never make KY competitive.
    Obama will never make NV competitive.
    Obama will never make AR competitive.
    Obama will likely never make MO competitive.

    Obama will never win. It has nothing to do with polls. It’s all about cold hard facts. He doesn’t connect in these places. If he hasn’t done it by now, he’ll never do it.

    Of all the following, Obama needs to win at least four.
    IA, MI, WI, OH, PA.

    Even if he wins all five, he could still lose. Imagine winning both OH & PA and still losing. There is no path to victory for Obama.

    And delegates don’t mean anything in the GE.

    Obama’s absolute maximum EV is 293 with 47 of those leaning for McCain. In short, he basically has to win everything at his disposal. No room for error. That’s simply not going to happen.

    Hillary’s maximum is 355 and could go up to 377. She’s already winning with 301 EV with MI(17) as evenly split with McCain and plenty more states available to her.

    It’s sick how much of an advantage she has in November. And the DNC wants to just toss a certain victory out the window.

    AMAZING! Simply AMAZING!

    • Hillaryormccain08

      He will not win PA because he is not popular here. He was unable to win Pittsburgh and Allegheny County if he is unable to win it in the G.E then I doubt he will win the State. In order to win the State of PA the Democrat has to win both Philidelphia which of course is the biggest city and Allegheny County which is our largest County and the one where Pittsburgh is located. People in Pittsburgh never even had a black mayor. I know the Obamabots will say thats racist but 77% of the City is African American.

    • beebop

      He would have huge PROBLEMS in Ohio …. I think that polls spell that out very quickly.

      • Lou

        I have friends in Ohio. They say Ohio is too patriotic for BHO to win there.

    • stodghie

      no room for error? that’s all the obama campaign has been all error, hubris, reverse racism and woman hatred. take all that into account with the democratic base heading for the door, there is no way he can win. think PUMA!

  • Genevieve

    Of the three Appalachian swing states of WV, OH and PA, only PA will conceivably go blue, and that’s a longshot.

  • Kinky Ogremann

    A vote for Obama ensures we lose the Senate – without the senate to stop McCain, we are looking again at Bush’s first term and a possible attack of Iran with Congress unable to stop him.

    Wake up people! There is no way Obama can win against McCain! Terrorist connections up the ying-yang between Obama and every far-left wing radical group since the inception of this country doesn’t exactly exude voter confidence!

    • Lou

      Speaking of terrorists up the ying yang

      In case you forgot:

      Obama quote from March-as usual playing both sides of the fence just like pooplosi…..

      Obama Explains National Anthem Stance Is this guy crazy or what! On Sat, 22 Mar 2008 18:48:04 -0400, “LT. Bill Ginn” USAF ret forwarded: Hot on the heels of his explanation for why he no longer wears a flag pin, presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama was forced to explain why he doesn’t follow protocol when the National Anthem is played. According to the United States Code, Title 36, Chapter 10, Sec. 171…… During rendition of the national anthem when the flag is displayed, all present except those in uniform are expected to stand at attention facing the flag with the right hand over the heart. “As I’ve said about the flag pin, I don’t want to be perceived as taking sides,” Obama said.”There are a lot of people in the world to whom the American flag is a symbol of oppression. And the anthem itself conveys a war like message. You know, the bombs bursting in air and all. It should be swapped for something less parochial and less bellicose. I like the song ‘I’d Like to Teach the World to Sing.’ If that were our anthem, then I might salute it.”

      • so saddened

        wow, another 527 ad writing itself. “i don’t want to be perceived as taking sides….there are a lot of people in the world to whom the american flag is a symbol of oppression…” somehow i think the american electorate WANT him to take america’s side!!!

        does this guy want to lose all 50? 57? 58? states?

        i really see only one problem for the repubs – how to decide among the thousands of possible quotes of obambi – what to use for the ads? this one? punished with a baby? etc. there is only so much air time.

  • NewOrleans

    If Obama is the nominee, Mary Landrieu might as well start packing her bags, because she’s done as a US Senator.

    She has barely squeaked by in her last two campaigns. She can’t lose ANY support with her poll numbers being nearly tied with former-Democrat, now-Republican John Kennedy.

    The problem is that many of us down here consider Obama completely unacceptable as our party’s nominee. Of the nearly two dozen family members and friends who I talk politics with, not one – NOT ONE – will vote for Barack Obama. All say they will vote for McCain. That’s 21 lifelong Democrats crossing over to McCain.

    Mary Landrieu has always been a pathetic excuse for a Senator. She’s spineless and weak and goes along to get along. If we are going to have to vote for a Republican for president, we might as well vote for one for Senator.

    When John Kennedy was a Democrat, he was always well-liked. So with Obama at the top of the ticket, Kennedy will have little trouble pulling support from Mary, especially by people who are so furious at the disgusting behavior of the Democratic party against Hillary Clinton.

    Bill Clinton won Louisiana both times he ran for President. Hillary would be able to bring Louisiana back home to the Party. But since the Democratic elite are so determined to get their Affirmative Action nominee in, they will suffer the consequences.

  • Lillian

    Hussein simply doesn’t stand a chance. And it gets worse by the day. Let’s make sure the SDs read this:

    It is a fact that (with one exception) in the general election every Democratic nominee always loses a MegaEleven state which he had earlier lost as a candidate in the Democratic primaries. The lone exception was 1976 when Governor Jimmy Carter lost the New York primary but won New York in the general election. Carter would most likely have lost New York in the general election to President Ford except for an unfortunate remark which Ford made before the election that was proclaimed in newspaper headlines: “Ford to New York: ‘Drop Dead!’”.

    The Primary-Electoral Richter Scale not only indicates which of the MegaEleven states the Democratic nominee is vulnerable to lose in the general election, it also indicates whether a landslide loss for that nominee in the general election is possible, likely, or guaranteed.

    More from Will the Democrats choose a nominee who can win ( http://www.ifind2.com/news/ChoosingANomineeWhoCanWin.html)

  • Lou

    So Dems defect leaving Obama with the AA vote and the neocon liberal vote peppered with some male Indys. Not much here to speak of.

    • so saddened

      not much indeed. never thought i’d see a worse than mocgovern loss again, but this is probably the year it happens.

      this time, i’m rooting for it.