Who’s Less Bad?
By LisaB on June 6, 2008 at 2:50 PM in Barack Obama, Democrats, Disenfranchisement, Electability, General Election, Hillary Clinton, Jimmy Carter, John McCain, Popular Vote, Presidential Candidates, Republicans, Ronald Reagan
Friday’s Washington Post has a story on how the McCain campaign is looking to woo disaffected Clinton supporters. The GOP thinks it has a shot at these voters who believe Obama is out of touch with them and because McCain is a “maverick” who may be able to accommodate their interests.
That is why the Obama campaign is trying so hard to tie McCain to Bush — it’s the maverick thing. If Clinton voters see that McCain can be “worked with” they might jump to him rather than hang with a nominee who has so offended them for the past several months.
Obama advisors are confident the Clinton supporters’ flirtation with candidate McCain will wane and they will vote Democratic in the fall.
Polls do not necessarily bear this out, however.
Over the past three months, Washington Post-ABC News polls showed an average of 25 percent of those backing Clinton in the primaries “defecting” to McCain in a hypothetical match-up with Obama. A new poll from the Pew Research Center conducted just before the final Democratic primaries put the number at 28 percent.
Other data in the new Pew poll may add to the concern among some Democrats. In that survey, the percentage of Clinton supporters holding a positive view of Obama continues to slide: Forty-five percent of them view Obama favorably, down from 58 percent in December, before the voting started.
Apparently to further know Obama isn’t necessarily to like him.
In addition, those Clinton supporters voting for Obama in the fall may actually be soft support. While they will vote for Obama, it is not a positive vote for Obama, just one against McCain. If these aren’t “Obama people,” they might be won by some judicious mix of argument and policy. We shall see.
Nearly 6 in 10 of those backing Clinton over Obama in the primary said they would support Obama in the fall, with about half of those voters saying they are motivated to do so primarily to vote “against McCain” rather than “for Obama.”
Lastly, this WP piece noted that in the 1980 election when Ted Kennedy contested all the way to the convention, a higher percentage of Kennedy’s supporters (47) said they would NOT vote for Carter. Although only about half that number followed through, it was enough to help sink Carter and elect Ronald Reagan to his first term.


















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