The answer: Cause a 15 to 20 point drop in the polling of African Americans supporting BHO. This can be done but not with the arguments currently being used.

Without an 80% black voting bloc Obama is useless to the DNC.

There are four to target:

1. His authenticity as a black man; he is mixed-race.

2. His abandonment of the black church.

3. His misrepresentation of the greater black church experience. Black liberation theology was, at best, a minority viewpoint even in the 1960′s and 1970′s. Today, it’s the equivalent of churches that still handle snakes in sermons.

4. His skin complexion. Skin color is sensitive issue in the black community. There will be some blacks that will, rightly or wrongly, reach the conclusion that without one white parent, he could be standing where he is today. Think about it: out of the millions of blacks in the country, the first one to get this far has a white mother – and Dick Cheney’s blood. Unbelievable!

It’s nasty business, but, if you want the DNC to toss Obama overboard for Hillary, then bring down his polling numbers back into the 70′s. When this race started, his polling numbers among blacks were in the 30′s.

First, Obama doesn’t need to carry everything Kerry did if by that you mean he has to carry the exact same states. I’m sure you’re aware of that and that it isn’t what you meant, so I won’t dwell on it.

Second, I don’t think putting him on the ticket guarantees New Hampshire for McCain by any means. The polls there are really inconclusive, and SUSA hasn’t done one of their handy VP match-up polls there. For the moment, I see Obama having no worse than even odds to take it, pending further polling. Nevada is tricky in that Obama is fairly sure not to win the state, but he’s competitive enough in one CD (can’t remember which one) to have a good chance of snagging an extra EV there. At the moment, Colorado is looking very good for Obama, and I doubt that’s because he’s polling well among (high church attendance) Mormons. I don’t know where you get the idea that Romney has some special organizational abilities, except for his career history in business. That doesn’t translate directly into political organizing ability. The money is certainly a factor, but I’m of the opinion that Obama only has to make enough to stay competitive in air wars in battleground states; I’m sure he can manage that, especially since a fair number of them are low-dollar media markets (CO, MO, NM).

Obviously, Obama has a chance to capture Ohio, as you acknowledge further down. You also omit MO, where he is competitive, although currently not favored. IN could conceivably be in play; I’m a little skeptical, and there hasn’t been any polling after the primary there. Still, it shouldn’t be completely discounted. So, with those three plus the three you name, I would peg Obama’s current EV ceiling as 329 votes (Kerry’s states plus those six plus an extra out of NV). That’s a ceiling, mind you; I don’t expect him to perform that well right now.

Vulnerabilities: PA is safe in my opinion, we keep hearing about how it’s a swing state, and yes our nominee tends to poll a small lead, but it’s consistent, and then they win it comfortably in November. Obviously you’d like to see Obama build a bigger cushion there, but until I start seeing some May or later polls with McCain leading, I’m not worried. MI: I’ll admit I’m surprised at McCain’s strength there. If it’s residual bitterness over the delegate issue, I think it will fade away within the next few weeks and Obama taking the lead. Otherwise, that is trouble, but not insurmountable trouble in the sense that it isn’t quite a must win because CO and IA are 16 to its 17. NH: Kerry won it narrowly, and the most recent poll has Obama staked to a decent little lead. Certainly no way you can know it’s going for McCain at this point with the polls so inconsistent.

WI: I don’t know what you mean when you say he’s already lost it, 538 has him at 65% to win it, and that early May Rasmussen polls looks like an outlier to me. Incidentally, not many black “folk” in Montana either, but Obama just picked that up the other day, if you’ll recall. You know as well as I do that he has appeal beyond African-Americans, if he didn’t your candidate would have won.

So that ought to be enough to dispel any notion that he “can’t win.” He’s competitive where he needs to be. As to his vulnerabilities, you have to remember he is just now coming off a tough nomination fight, and under-polling among Dems. I grant you that if they fail to come home in key states, he doesn’t have a prayer. I just don’t see any real evidence for that scenario, and I see some evidence that they are coming home already. That will only get better after Clinton endorses him this weekend and the campaign shifts into full general election mode; I’m sure Obama will be going on the air in the key states very soon.

Finally, it’s worth remembering that Kerry barely won some of these states with the party united behind him in an election year in which the Republicans held an approximate 3-point partisan ID advantage. This year, it’s between 7 and 10 points in the Dems’ favor, depending on which pollster you ask. And Obama is fighting McCain to a draw or winning independents.

And once again, he is just now starting his general election campaign, just this week consolidating the party leadership and organization behind him. There is a possibility that he will gain a substantial unity bounce sometime in the next month or even after the convention in August and ride that all the way into November. I would not want to be John McCain right now, I’ll tell you that. Tied to the incumbent party in the midst of an unpopular war and a sputtering (or tanking) economy…very tough fundamentals to overcome.

How many votes did he vote “present” for or hit the “wrong button” in the Chicago legislature for???????????

gee lets see..my hubby got a repub chain letter today..yes they are fast at work showing off sparky’s record!!

this is what was in the repub chain letter..

AS A FIRST TERM SENATOR HE HAS FAILED TO TAKE A STANCE ON OVER 130 ISSUES BY VOTING “PRESENT.”

ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL JOURNAL, HE WAS THE MOST LIBERAL SENATOR IN THE U.S. IN 2007, SUPPORTING SUCH LIBERAL CAUSES AS NEEDLE EXCHANGE PROGRAMS FOR DRUG ADDICTS & SEX EDUCATION FOR CHILDREN IN KINDERGARTEN.

yeah thats the ticket!!…

gee i wonder if i should send the over 800 repubs on the list the Rezko watch web site?????????

As to the Latino vote, 75% or so of my very large family that are Latino/Native American are just like the Anglo percentage. We all support HRC and will never vote for Obama.

Perhaps we are an anomaly, but surely we cannot be as far from the norm as those numbers suggest.

Time will tell.

Which means Obama has to carry all kerry did and has to make up 18 electoral votes.

When Romney is McCain’s VP, the repub conservatives will be appeased. More importantly Romney is from MA (anyone remember that he had judas ted kennedy on the ropes in 94 and how Bill clinton helped kennedy out?) He has ties in NH, his father was governer in Michigan and he is a mormon and will carry Nevada (7.5% Mormons) and make it harder for Nobama in Colorado (2.5 % staunch mormons) He will bring a big war chest (300 mil worth) and ability to organize.

That means the only states Nobama can get (extra over kerry) are CO, NM, Iowa and maybe virginia.

On the other hand he has already lost wisconsin that was taken by kerry(not many black folk there incidentally), people are not even contesting that. He is sure to lose Michigan, what a stupid fuck up, did they actually need to steal those 4 delegates, or even the other 55? What insanity? And NH is going republican this year. Incidentally the margins that kerry took these in 2004 was very slim and he had the whole party behind him.

And he will be fighting off attacks in pennsylvania. The only job for Repubs will be to retain Ohio. This should be easy to do for the repubs with the appalachia being pissed off and women on the warpath.

And don’t be ingenuous enough to bring florida or georgia or some such nonsense.

This is even before he gets hit with the women’s righteous anger.

This is even before he gets hit with the poor white workers who have not heard yet the contsant daily drilling about the bitter, gun clinging, religion clinging ads.

This is before the “machine gun” like attacks about wright, farrahkan, rezko, hamas, doubtful patriotism, lack of experience and what else, from the RNC.

All 18 million hillary supporters don’t need to switch to Mccain. Only 50K in Ohio and 100K in PA will seal his fate.

That is why women need to focus their efforts in ohio and PA. If they do that, the tyrants like Dean and Pelosi will be washed away with this corrupt chicago politician.

The tape probably exists but will merely be the coup de grace. It’s not really needed.

What is really needed is Hillary.

Stupid DNC. May they rot in hell!

there is only one way that the DNC and the SDs will reexamine their vote for Obama at the August convention, and they certainly will do so, and place Hillary back on top of the ticket.

But, there is only 11 weeks until the convention, so there is not much time to make it happen. But, Hillary supporters must begin acting now.

Unfortunately, in all the blogs that I have read, no one has stated the answer. Both Hillary supporters and the republicans/far right pursue the wrong target.

Wake up folks, time is running out if you want Hillary on top of the ticket.