Obama Tiene Un Problema Muy Grande
By Charles Lemos on June 12, 2008 at 10:25 AM in Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Hispanic vote, Latinos
The Congress-watcher news magazine The Hill writes this week that:
Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) must commit to helping illegal immigrants achieve citizenship or else risk losing the vital Latino vote in the general election, Hispanic Democratic lawmakers are warning.
If he does not promise so-called comprehensive immigration reform, the lawmakers say, the only other way to win over Hispanic supporters of his erstwhile rival, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.), may be to pick her as his running mate.
While I think that’s true, the problem for Obama with Hispanics goes deeper than that and again it comes to down those pesky values which I keep on referencing. That Obama is likely to carry the Hispanic vote I do not doubt. It is the narrower margin by which he will do so that should give the Democratic leadership pause.
Here’s the crux of Obama’s problema muy grande:
While Obama won the Latino vote in his home state of Illinois and in Colorado, and stayed competitive in New Mexico and Arizona, he was walloped among Latinos ? 64 percent to 24 ? throughout the 24 contests making up Super Tuesday. In California, Clinton won over Latinos 67 percent to 29.
Latino voters comprised 30 percent of California Democratic primary voters, an increase of 17 percent from 2004. In Texas, the number of Latinos voting in the Democratic primary rose 8 percent, to 32 percent of the electorate, according to the Pew Hispanic Center.
In the Florida Republican primary, where Latinos made up 12 percent of the total vote and where McCain edged out Romney by only 4 percentage points, the Arizona senator won 54 percent of the Latino vote compared to Romney?s 14 percent. And many Republicans remember that it was in 2004 when 40 percent of Latino voters abandoned the Democratic presidential nominee, Sen. John Kerry (Mass.), to vote for President Bush, Munoz said.
Here is an overview of the states with the largest Hispanic population in the United States. Some of these are firmly in the McCain camp, others firmly in the Obama camp but a few are swing states. The swing states with large Hispanic populations are Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
Arizona
Arizona’s Hispanic population is the sixth-largest in the nation. Nearly 1.8 million Hispanics reside in Arizona, 4% of all Hispanics in the United States. There are 673,000 eligible Hispanic voters in Arizona, 4% of all U.S. Hispanic eligible voters. McCain wins his home state.
California
California’s Hispanic population is the largest of any state in the nation. More than 13 million Hispanics reside in California, 30% of all Hispanics in the United States. There are over 5 million eligible Hispanic voters in California, 28% of all U.S. Hispanic eligible voters. Polls right now are trending Obama’s way in California. Still most Hispanics here in the state have yet to focus on Obama. In the California primary, all they needed to know was that Hillary Clinton was Bill’s wife and that she was on the ballot. That may provide an opportunity for McCain to tag Obama as being out of touch with Hispanic values and Hispanics in California in a recent Field Poll had a 65% favourable view of McCain. Again his stance on immigration helps. Still I doubt McCain will win a plurality of Hispanic voters in California but he doesn’t have to, he only has to eat into the margin to make California competitive.
Colorado
Colorado’s Hispanic population is eighth-largest in the nation. More than 927,000 Hispanics reside in Colorado, 2% of all Hispanics in the United States. There are over 404,000 eligible Hispanic voters in Colorado, 2% of all U.S. Hispanic eligible voters. Obama is aiming to make a push in Colorado. He’s likely to find support in the Denver to Boulder corridor and in liberal Aspen. Elsewhere, it looks like McCain country. Thus, the Hispanic vote should be a significant factor in Colorado come November. It is one of the swing demographics in Colorado.
District of Columbia
The District of Columbia’s Hispanic population is the 42nd largest in the nation. More than 47,000 Hispanics reside in the district, less than 0.1% of all Hispanics in the United States. There are 16,000 eligible Hispanic voters in the district, less than 0.1% of all U.S. Hispanic eligible voters. Still, it is the African-American vote that matters in DC, not Hispanics.
Florida
Hispanic voters registered as Democrats have overtaken Hispanic Republicans in Florida, signaling a trend that, if it continues, could have far-reaching implications for the 2008 election and U.S. foreign policy. Until now, the politically influential, mostly Republican Cuban-American community in Miami-Dade made Florida the only state in the country where, among Hispanics, Republicans outnumbered Democrats. The growth among Hispanic Democrats is striking. Since January 2006, when the state began identifying voters as Hispanic, Democratic registration has increased 18 percent. Hispanic Republicans grew by only 2 percent, while those choosing neither party are up 14 percent. Florida has a larger South American population than other US states. Cubans, Haitian and Colombians make up the largest communities but there are growing numbers of Venezuelans and Brazilians. Cubans, Colombians and Venezuelans may be put off by Obama’s embrace, erstwhile at times, of Hugo Chávez. Free trade is also a big issue and Obama is against it and that issue won’t sit well with Latin Americans who want to see closer economic ties between the United States and their respective homelands. Many Latin Americans in the United States actually are engaged in jobs that depend on a vibrant trade with Latin America.
Hawaii
Hawaii’s Hispanic population is the 38th largest in the nation. Approximately 100,000 Hispanics reside in Hawaii, less than 1% of all Hispanics in the United States. There are 60,000 eligible Hispanic voters in Hawaii, less than 1% of all U.S. Hispanic eligible voters. Hawaii is Obama country, he should win with ease.
Illinois
Illinois’s Hispanic population is the fifth-largest in the nation. Nearly 1.9 million Hispanics reside in Illinois, 4% of all Hispanics in the United States. There are over 708,000 eligible Hispanic voters in Illinois, 4% of all U.S. Hispanic eligible voters.
Maryland
Maryland’s Hispanic population is the 20th largest in the nation. More than 341,000 Hispanics reside in Maryland, 1% of all Hispanics in the United States. There are 112,000 eligible Hispanic voters in Maryland, less than 1% of all U.S. Hispanic eligible voters.
Massachusetts
Massachusetts’s Hispanic population is the fifteenth-largest in the nation. More than 509,000 Hispanics reside in Massachusetts, 1% of all Hispanics in the United States. There are 246,000 eligible Hispanic voters in Massachusetts, 1% of all U.S. Hispanic eligible voters.
Nevada
In Nevada, Latinos make up about 20% of the population. Hispanics make up 12% of Nevada’s eligible voters, compared with 9 percent of eligible voters nationally. The concerns on the minds of Nevada’s Hispanic voters are the same issues that the rest of the nation faces, said Luis Valera, with the Latin Chamber of Commerce of Las Vegas.
“Those folks are worried about their jobs. They’re worried about the economy. They’re worried about the health of the tourism industry. They’re worried about making sure that their kids get a good education,” he said. Where Hispanics might differ, however, is on the issue of immigration, Valera said.
“The Hispanic community is going to be a little more sensitive to the immigration issue, more so than other communities,” he said.
I also think that Hispanics, who are rather complex in their political views, will view Obama with suspicion. They do tend to favour social welfare programmes but they also espouse traditional conservative Catholic values. And there is a growing number of evangelical Hispanics who are largely citizens because their pastors are very pro-active in assisting their flock in becoming US citizens. And they vote on issues where Obama stands not a chance.
New Jersey
New Jersey’s Hispanic population is the seventh-largest in the nation. More than 1.4 million Hispanics reside in New Jersey, 3% of all Hispanics in the United States. There are 588,000 eligible Hispanic voters in New Jersey, 3% of all U.S. Hispanic eligible voters. This may be the state where the Hispanic vote has the biggest impact. If McCain can capture 45% of the Hispanic vote in New Jersey, he will in all likelihood take this blue state red. New Jersey has a large Cuban and Colombian populations. While the Cuban population votes more GOP, the Colombian population hasn’t. But Colombians have their feet in both the United States and in Colombia. Colombian-Americans were less than thrilled with Obama’s comments in neighboring Pennsylvania on the Colombian FTA and on Alvaro Uribe. So outraged were the Colombians that the Colombian government sent the first diplomatic protest note in four years to State Department complaining about Senator Obama’s remarks and demanding respect for the Colombian President. Obama’s comments implied that the Colombian government was complicit in the assassination of trade unionist and of course, he got his facts wrong. Obama alleged that over 200 trade unionists were being murdered per year and that the Uribe government was responsible. Problem was the last year where more than 200 trade unionists were killed in Colombia was 2001 and at that time Andres Pastrana was President of Colombia, not Alvaro Uribe. In 2007, the number of trade unionist murdered was 24 or 37 depending on which count you believe, the Colombian government’s or Amnesty International. In any case, Obama was far off the mark. These comments matter because in foreign affairs, precision in words really matter. Recall Obama’s comments in early June on Jerusalem when he misstated twenty years of stated US policy on Jerusalem’s status. His problem is that Obama panders to please his audience.
New Mexico
New Mexico’s Hispanic population is the ninth-largest in the nation. More than 874,000 Hispanics reside in New Mexico, 2% of all Hispanics in the United States. There are 501,000 eligible Hispanic voters in New Mexico, 3% of all U.S. Hispanic eligible voters. The same issues as mentioned in Nevada. Richardson on the ticket may put New Mexico in Obama’s column.
New York
New York’s Hispanic population is the fourth-largest in the nation. More than 3 million Hispanics reside in New York, 7% of all Hispanics in the United States. There are 1.5 million eligible Hispanic voters in New York, 8% of all U.S. Hispanic eligible voters. The Latin population in New York diverse though Puerto Ricans make up the largest percentage and they traditionally vote pocket book issues. Immigration is largely a non-issue for them since they are US citizens. Dominicans are another large group.
North Carolina
North Carolina’s Hispanic population is the 12th largest in the nation. About 595,000 Hispanics reside in North Carolina, representing 1% of all Hispanics in the United States. There are 120,000 eligible Hispanic voters in North Carolina, less than 1% of all U.S. Hispanic eligible voters. North Carolina has one of the fastest-growing Hispanic populations in the country. The question is how many are now citizens.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania’s Hispanic population is the 14th largest in the nation. About 522,000 Hispanics reside in Pennsylvania, 1% of all Hispanics in the United States. There are 261,000 eligible Hispanic voters in Pennsylvania, about 1.5% of all U.S. Hispanic eligible voters. While small in the grand scheme of things, Hispanics in Pennsylvania have in recent years become more politically mobilized as a result of ant-immigrant legislation passed on the local level.
Rhode Island
Rhode Island’s Hispanic population is the 35th largest in the nation. About 120,000 Hispanics reside in Rhode Island, less than 1% of all Hispanics in the United States. There are 43,000 eligible Hispanic voters in Rhode Island, less than 1% of all U.S. Hispanic eligible voters. Rhode Island is the bluest state of all. Obama should carry the state without much of a problem.
Texas
Texas’s Hispanic population is the second largest in the nation. Nearly 8.4 million Hispanics reside in Texas, 19% of all Hispanics in the United States. There are 3.6 million eligible Hispanic voters in Texas, 20% of all U.S. Hispanic eligible voters.
Virginia
Virginia’s Hispanic population is the 16th largest in the nation. More than 466,000 Hispanics reside in Virginia, 1% of all Hispanics in the United States. There are 149,000 eligible Hispanic voters in Virginia, less than 1% of all U.S. Hispanic eligible voters. Probably not a factor in Virginia.
In the end, this is a margin game. While Clinton would no doubt carry Hispanics 2:1 overall and 3:1 in some states, Obama is going to have to compete for them with McCain, a name Hispanics recognize and a man they trust because he has stood with them on immigration. McCain should capture the 40% that voted for George W. Bush in 2004, the question is can he push that total closer to 50% and if so, Obama tiene un problema muy grande.
Note: The data used in this post is from the US Census Bureau, the Miami Herald, CNN, Pew Research and the New York Times.
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